Listener poll – September 2017

The latest Listener has a party poll that has a similar result to the latest Colmar Brunton polls.

 

That shows a huge jump for Labour but very little movement for National. The percentages are misleading because in contrast to most polls, this includes the ‘Don’t Know’ portion of responses.

Taking ‘don’t know out we get:

  • Labour 41%
  • National 38%
  • NZ First 8%
  • Greens 7%
  • TOP 2%
  • Maori 1%
  • ACT 1%

Those are approximate because the source numbers are rounded, and the minor parties are too small to have any useful level of accuracy.

The poll canvassed 1528 New Zealanders aged 18-plus who are planning to vote in this year’s election and was taken from September 1-5.

This is the final Election Time Barometer of our election-year research. The results are weighted by age, gender and region, and the margin of error at the 95% confidence level is ±2.5%.

An interesting indication of ‘leader most capable of managing the economy’:

Source: http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/politics/poll-labour-national-and-the-crucial-8/

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16 Comments

  1. David

     /  September 9, 2017

    I wonder, given the second graphic, if there will be a pause in the voting booth and some last second switch back to English and if that will be enough to counteract an expected surge of 1st time voters.
    Given that apparently 20% of people have switched voter preference in the last 3 weeks the polls “could” be quite a bit out.

    • I’m going to do a post soon on the undecideds. I think there are a significant number of voters or possible non-voters who are still quite unsure who to vote for. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is some significant late movement – but it’s hard to predict which way that might go.

      • Corky

         /  September 9, 2017

        I can’t understand why people are having a problem deciding. Either you vote on princple; or vote on your back pocket. Am I missing something?

        Oh…

        • There’s a lot of factors, personalities and policies to take into account, as well as trying to decide what coalition combinations are likely.

          Many people make decisions based on perceptions of competence and it’s uncertain how Ardern and Labour might shape up, and National seem to be trying to prove incompetence.

          The last two weeks will be important.

        • Gezza

           /  September 9, 2017

          Undoubtedly Corks. Other perspectives.

  2. PDB

     /  September 9, 2017

    I was actually going to post on this PG but it was on the most important thing you overlooked……elections are usually won on the state of the economy but this time we are seeing people seemingly voting on anything but;

    *Most capable of managing the economy – English 47%, Ardern 29%.
    *84% say the country does incredibly well for a small country at the bottom of the world.
    *76% say there is no better country to live in.

    Labour is saying we are doing really well but somehow they will do BETTER.

    In uncertain times in the world they are going to ramp up spending ($23billion to National’s $8 billion thus far not counting what the Greens and the like could demand in order to prop them up) and increase borrowing. All this is based on having an economy at the very least performing as good as it is now or better even though they have admitted they only have 5000 construction workers where 55000 will be needed due to immigration reduction, will tax the hell out of farmers, and stall business with 1970’s style wage bargaining.

    Can only end in tears.

    • Corky

       /  September 9, 2017

      ”Can only end in tears.”

      Yes, not only for the country, but the Left of politics. New Zealanders will learn a nasty lesson under Labour. They will have no one to blame but themselves..

      Provided an opposition National Party handle their knifings discreetly, signal where Labour are going wrong, and show the public what they would have done…. then.they will be good for a five term rein come the next election.

      • PDB

         /  September 9, 2017

        It is either defeat this election for National or next election, if you had a choice losing this election would serve them better – unlike what apologists like Blazer (below) say the economy would be handed over to Labour in great condition only further highlighting any problems Labour has in running it.

        Will only end in tears for National if they promote Bennett, Collins, Joyce, Bridges etc to leader who can’t win a general election. The other issue of course is if Winston goes and NZL First falls over National lack large enough political allies to form govt whilst Labour will always have the Greens..

  3. Patzcuaro

     /  September 9, 2017

    Joyce seems to be running into a few issues with his credibility. As finance minister he is the only “economist” to think that there is a $11b hole in Labour’s budget. Has anyone checked to see if National’s budget adds up. It appears Joyce had a few problems at university with economics.

    As campaign manager the National campaign looks tired, a rehash of last elections ads. If that translates into policy we can look forward to another 3 years of longer waiting time for healthcare and lower home ownership rates.

  4. PDB

     /  September 9, 2017

    National haven’t done themselves any favours but what are Labour’s policies? Essentially taxing, borrowing more and spending with nothing I can see that is going to better how our economy is performing. In fact as I mention in my post above the economy will undoubtedly stall/ go backwards. Wouldn’t take much for taxpayers to really feel the pinch if interest rates finally go back up, beneficiary numbers increase and inflation rises.

    I think Joyce was wrong in a different way – Labour fully intends to run a ‘recession budget’ of no extra spending for police, DOC, justice, defense (any govt dept except Health & education) because that is exactly where we will be heading year 2 into their term if they become govt.

    • Blazer

       /  September 9, 2017

      National have laid the foundations for a downturn.Nil productivity gains for almost 5 years,rampant property inflation,and promotion of a FIRE economy at the expense of growth in investment in the tradeable sector.

  5. Pete Kane

     /  September 9, 2017

    Good shooting G.

    • Gezza

       /  September 9, 2017

      Good man. 👍🏼
      (Still sacked as my Gamekeeper, mind.)
      (Possibly a security role, 🕶 we’ll see. How tall are you?)
      Sir Gerald. 🎖🛡 🇳🇿

  1. Listener poll – September 2017 — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition