Open Forum – Monday

11 September 2017

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81 Comments

  1. lurcher1948

     /  September 11, 2017

    Isn’t life confusing
    National/act/MAORI party OK
    Labour/green/MAORI party scary
    The latest whine from the right

    Reply
  2. chrism56

     /  September 11, 2017

    Irma is bad and will continue to do a lot of damage, but it isn’t anything unusual or special. From Weather underground:
    “The landfalls of Irma and Harvey as Cat 4s makes 2017 the first year on record (going back to 1851) with two Atlantic landfalling hurricanes of Category 4+ strength in the U.S. If we include Hawaii, 2017 is the second year for the U.S. as a whole to receive two Category 4+ hits, since in 1992 Category 5 Andrew hit Florida, and Category 4 Iniki hit Hawaii. According to Dr. Phil Klozbach, Irma’s landfall pressure of 929 mb is tied with the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane (1928) for 7th lowest pressure on record for a U.S. landfalling hurricane. As of 5 am EDT Sunday, Irma had now been a major hurricane for 8.25 days, making it the 2nd longest-lived Atlantic major hurricane in satellite since accurate satellite records began in 1966, trailing only Hurricane Ivan of 2004.”

    Reply
    • If sea temperatures are higher then the number and severity of hurricanes is likely to increase. That’s simple science.

      There’s also more potential problems now due to increased populations, more buildings in hurricane prone areas, and more tourism.

      Reply
      • Joe Bloggs

         /  September 11, 2017

        There’s a triple whammy in the sea water:

        – warmer sea water tends to promote stronger storms, and there’s less cold, subsurface ocean water to serve as a braking mechanism for hurricanes

        – warmer atmosphere over those warmer seas holds more water vapour = which promotes greater precipitation and more flooding

        – with sea levels rising around the American coastline, storm surges have become bigger and penetrate further inland = greater loss of life and higher costs of rebuilding

        I don’t think we can conclude that climate change ’caused’ Harvey or Irma, but their characteristics have been exacerbated by climate change in ways that are causing greater damage and loss of life.

        Reply
    • Joe Bloggs

       /  September 11, 2017

      sorry chrism but you contradict yourself:

      – “Irma … isn’t anything unusual or special”

      versus

      – “The landfalls of Irma and Harvey as Cat 4s makes 2017 the first year on record (going back to 1851) with two Atlantic landfalling hurricanes of Category 4+ strength in the U.S.”
      and
      – “it[s] the 2nd longest-lived Atlantic major hurricane in satellite since accurate satellite records began”

      Science also contradicts you. Irma has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than 17 full Atlantic hurricane seasons in the satellite era, and its also set records for being the strongest hurricane to have occurred in the open Atlantic, and for having sustained wind speeds of at least 185mph over the longest period.

      Reply
    • Joe Bloggs

       /  September 11, 2017

      chrism, following up on your bloviation that “Irma … isn’t anything unusual or special”, here’s a follow-up from someone who knows about hurricanes…

      Take it from the hurricane historian: There has never been a tropical cyclone quite like Irma.

      “You’ve had storms this strong,” said Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in the history of Atlantic tropical cyclones. “But the thing that sets [Irma] apart is she stayed strong for a really long time—and she’s still incredibly strong.”

      Klotzbach said two things stood out to him about Irma as historically notable: its longevity and its point of origin.

      As of Saturday evening, Irma has been a hurricane for 10 days, becoming the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane since Ike in 2008. It has stayed remarkably powerful over that time: Its landfall on Sunday ranks it among the 10 lowest-pressure cyclones ever to encounter the continental United States.

      But Irma had a strange origin: It became a category-five storm in a part of the world that usually does not produce huge hurricanes. When major hurricanes have struck the continental United States in the past, they have always incubated in the much warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean. That’s where Katrina grew in 2005, for instance.

      Irma, on the other hand, expanded to its massive size in the tropical Atlantic, east of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. “To get something east of the islands—at least from the historical record, it hasn’t happened before,” said Klotzbach. “When people in the [Leeward] Islands were saying, ‘We’ve never seen a storm this strong,’ that’s true. They haven’t.”

      https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/09/hurricane-irma-closes-in-on-miami/539217/

      “Irma … isn’t anything unusual or special”? – nup, I don’t buy your denialism.

      Reply
      • chrism56

         /  September 11, 2017

        I am glad you recognize Dr Klotzbach’s expertise Joe. You would have seen that he has just tweeted “2017 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 12.75 major hurricane days thru 9/10 – only years w/ more thru 9/10 are 1899 & 1933 ” Now, what were you saying about things getting worse.
        Also, the ACE records go back to 1970. If you actually looked those up (I gave the link several days back) it doesn’t show an upwards trend. It is actually a slight downwards on LSR., In fact Dr Klotzbach tweeted “In only 5 years has the Atlantic generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy by Sep. 10 than in 2017: 1893, 1933, 1950, 1995 & 2005.”
        If we take the landfall on continental USA as Naples not one of the Keys island chain, then the 1915 hurricane season was worse. Read the history
        If you look at the SST anomalies map for when the hurricane started, the Atlantic wasn’t particularly warm for this time of year. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
        There are plenty of times over the August to November period in the last 12 years that it has been a lot warmer without hurricanes.
        If you want to cherrypick, Joe, you case falls to pieces very quickly when you look at the full record. That is why I said it wasn’t unusual or special.
        And I gather you include IPCC and NOAA in your denialism as well
        https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/.

        Reply
  3. lurcher1948

     /  September 11, 2017

    I wish Larry Williams would stop talking over the top of Jacinda and shut up and let her finish a sentence. His national party bias is raging.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  September 11, 2017

      What are you whining about. Lurchy. Larry is teeing off on Jacinda, and she’s rock solid. Reminds me of Aunty…and we know how that ended.

      She is still weak around tax. And she wants to take refugees from Manus Island.

      I’ve changed my mind on this women. She will be an absolute disaster for this country- not just a hindrance. Ten years of growth will go down the gurgler. And there will be more social engineering.

      Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  September 11, 2017

        Perhaps you should follow Key by cashing up and moving on.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  September 11, 2017

          Perhaps you are right. The thought of my extra taxes going on someone like you is most upsetting.

          Key cashed up?

          Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  September 11, 2017

        “Social engineering”. Ouch!

        I thought that died with the helen clark era. A timely reminder of what the next three years holds

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  September 11, 2017

          Bill calls it social investment.

          Reply
          • Conspiratoor

             /  September 11, 2017

            Can you flick me a word that follows ‘social’ that doesn’t grind the gears so to speak.
            Two words that just fit …like ‘dream bigly’ or ‘relentless positivity’

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  September 11, 2017

              social outcast.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  September 11, 2017

              Ha de ha. Works for me blazer…

              A social outcast is somebody who is not involved in social events and spends way to much time doing a “hobby”. Hacking computers, dealing drugs, trying to make friends over the internet or mabye playing tennis with “mummy”

            • Gezza

               /  September 11, 2017

              Social anaemic works, I reckon.

            • Gezza

               /  September 11, 2017

              Social gathering – another goodie. 👍🏼

              (Don’t get any social anaemics at social gatherings 👍🏼)

            • Conspiratoor

               /  September 11, 2017

              You’re off message G. I’m looking for something that resonates with the right thinking voter

            • Gezza

               /  September 11, 2017

              Hmm. I see. Social Investment ought to, c. It’s a sound concept, in theory anyway. Focussing resources where they will produce the broadest & most socially beneficial outcome, at both the individual & collective level.

              Anyone who watched episode 3 of the dico on the Dunedin Study, who knows something about running and/or investing in a business, & who wants to make a practical difference, an improvement in the lives of individuals & their communities, a community profit, if you like – that phrase will resonate with.

            • Gezza

               /  September 11, 2017

              😬 😠 * dico = doco

              (I feel a bit socially awkward now 😰)

            • Conspiratoor

               /  September 11, 2017

              You’ve won me over G. Well argued

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  September 11, 2017

              Social Studies.

  4. Patzcuaro

     /  September 11, 2017

    John Key has left a parting gift for the National Party by selling his house for $20 million to a foreign buyer. Having relinquished the National Party leadership at the top of the market, does Key’s house sale indicate that the Auckland property market has peaked?

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  September 11, 2017

      No. It indicates New Zealand could be Greece within three years. Ok…lets make that six.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  September 11, 2017

        the reason National were able to tackle the fallout from the GFC and the Christchurch quakes,was that Labour had left office having accrued little debt.This meant that austerity was not the medecine needed ,and the borrowing National did to maintain services bolstered the economy.What is now required is some vision to move NZ forward, for the benefit of NZ’ers not foreign stock/bondholders.Why does National hate Kiwibank so and favour the big 4 foreign banks?A telling example is that these big 4 banks have deposit insurance in Australia ,but in NZ the Govt legislated to steal Kiwi deposits with their OBR….unforgiveable bias and anathema to the so called principles that National claim to stand for.

        Reply
        • Patzcuaro

           /  September 11, 2017

          Yes Labour, despite the rights protestations, left the books in a sound state which allowed the National Party to ride out the GFC and Christchurch earthquakes by upping immigration to stimulate the economy. Because of our relatively low government debt, inherited from the Labour government, National was able to borrow at low interest rates for the rebuild. The economy has grown but not productivity.

          Reply
        • PDB

           /  September 11, 2017

          This ‘Labour left the economy in a good state in 2008’ has been debunked so many times on this blog that for people to even suggest it now is fingers in ears repeating ‘not listening’ material. A quick search of previous discussions on this blog will clearly show this.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  September 11, 2017

            wrong again,it won’t take you long to find the level of indebtedness when Labour left office.And as Patzucaro points out,this was the foundation for borrowing billions at a good interest rate.

            Reply
            • PDB

               /  September 11, 2017

              As Cullen himself said ‘the cupboard is bare’ and there was good reason NZ slipped into recession before the rest of the world. You’ve lost this argument so many times on here that to bring it up again is a joke.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  September 11, 2017

              @PDB the cupboard might have been bare but we were in a position to be able to up borrowing in the event of financial or natural disasters. With all the election promises this time around the cupboard is going to look bare which ever party wins. National’s is prepared to open its pockets to get back into power.

            • Blazer

               /  September 11, 2017

              the cupboard may have been bare,but NZ’s credit rating was…rock solid.

            • PDB

               /  September 11, 2017

              Patzcuaro: “With all the election promises this time around the cupboard is going to look bare which ever party wins.”

              As of this morning.

              Promises from the right: $8 billion – Nats, ACT – Minus $2.5 billion.
              Total: $5.5 billion.

              Promises from the left: $23 billion – Labour, Greens – $10 billion.
              Total: $33 billion.

              Can only end in tears.

            • Blazer

               /  September 11, 2017

              Promises from the right: $28 billion – Nats, ACT – Minus $2.5 billion.
              Total: $25.5 billion.

              Promises from the left: $13 billion – Labour, Greens – $10 billion.
              Total: $23 billion.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  September 11, 2017

              @PDB to govern at present National would also need Peters, so you would have to recalculate your figures to include NZ First promises. Labour may be able to govern with just the Greens or may require Maori Party or in worst case scenario NZ First.

              Perhaps that is why National has been so abstemious with their promises as they have to allow for NZ Firsts.

            • PDB

               /  September 11, 2017

              No – this is the two definite opposing blocks. If I was including NZL First I’d have to put them into both equations at this stage hence the difference between the two blocks is the same. Maori could go either way as well (more likely the left).

              Not sure what nonsense Blazer is making up.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  September 11, 2017

              That is fine because on current polling National will need NZ First, in Labour’s case they may or may not, so you would need a calculation with just the Greens and Maori Party and a calculation with just NZ First.

              Basically we are looking at what has been promised by all parties in any incoming government.

              It is a bit like saying the Clark Labour government left the cupboard bare but omitting to say that the finances were overall in good shape. This is what is becoming known as Stevenomics. If you say something often enough and loud enough, doesn’t matter if it is true, it might lodge in the public consciousness to your advantage.

              If we really want to look at a situation where the cupboard was bare and the finances were a shambles we only have to go back to 1984 and the Muldoon National government.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  September 11, 2017

              For his services to economics he then Knighted himself.

            • Blazer

               /  September 11, 2017

              Lets all play…Buckleys Joyce…..just think of a number ,multiply by 4 ..and ..presto.

          • Corky

             /  September 11, 2017

            Labour had poor productivity rates through some of the the best global economic conditions of recent times.

            And I guess Sir Michael was pulling our leg when he quiped ‘he’d spent the money.’

            Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  September 11, 2017

        @ Corky I don’t think so we have our own currency so have more levers to adjust things whereas Greece is stuck with Euro. Worst case scenario we just import more people to keep the economy ticking along.

        Reply
    • George

       /  September 11, 2017

      Shock horror.
      Key has sold his house.
      Ever occur to the brain of nowhere that the kids have left home and its time to downsize to something cozier..

      Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  September 11, 2017

        Yep, he has kept the tennis court for a more modest abode.

        Reply
      • Blazer

         /  September 11, 2017

        1 son in his 20’s…!A very fortuitous investment for Key.The market just kept ramping up.He must have been delighted with his foresight and good fortune.Love to see the share portfolio.Plenty of Scales,SKC,MEL,MCY…one would ..speculate.

        Reply
      • Blazer

         /  September 11, 2017

        he still has another…5 .

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  September 11, 2017

          If I was selling my house, I’d sell it to the highest bidder-who on earth wouldn’t ?

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  September 11, 2017

            whats that got to do with the house price inflation Key said he had a 4 point plan to address ,..10 years ..ago?

            Reply
  5. lurcher1948

     /  September 11, 2017

    Slater hates national at times more than labour and yes i know he’s been sidelined…
    https://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2017/09/nikki-kaye-support-caucus/

    Reply
  6. lurcher1948

     /  September 11, 2017

    I love my morning read of kiwiblog so i will share…
    oldpark

    The every day aaaw broadcast every day by the NZ Herald owned Newstalk Zb,as well as their daily news hits infavour of Lie-bour/Green mafias .Their newsroom is full of Trade Union biased Lie-bour /Green Party sycophants.
    One of the worst comments heard is this.
    A child with an voice to make people listen or cringe. “Mummy why has that child got no lunch and wants mine”. Mummy fails to tell the child the reason.
    The answer should be if the biased N Z Herald told the truth. The mother the same. Reasons for no lunch is because of parent neglect and they also choose to be a parent like me ,They prefer to bludge off the system ,being propped up by bleeding hearts instead of being told about their responsibilities. Why should us as listeners be exposed daily to such negitave brainwashing by the worse than useless and biased Mainstream Media.Who daily deliver fake news.

    Reply
    • lurcher1948

       /  September 11, 2017

      Who is Bill English, no one mentions him anymore as he’s so yesterday, he could be a 2-time loser, going by how many time his name is mentioned on the radio.

      Reply
  7. Corky

     /  September 11, 2017

    Leighton Smith receiving record number of emails. People waking up. Is Jacinda Cinderella or the Wicked Witch? Well, what is that hidden behind the new Kirby vacuum cleaner? Lets see, it has a long wooden handle and some bristles at the bottom. Hard to get a good look though because Jacinda says she cant move the Kirby unless she is elected..

    Reply
  8. Gezza

     /  September 11, 2017

    Righto. That’s enuf rampaging from me from for the moment.
    Things to do.
    Later. 👍🏼
    11.37 am

    Reply
  9. lurcher1948

     /  September 11, 2017

    Where is Bill English?????????????????????????????????????????????

    Reply
    • PDB

       /  September 11, 2017

      What are you on about now Lurch?

      Reply
      • lurcher1948

         /  September 11, 2017

        I think Bill English is on holiday or something as he seems to be missing in action,hes NEVER mentioned,

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  September 11, 2017

          He’s in the Manuwatu today Lurch – what you are describing is MSM bias in favour of the chosen (better clickbait) one.

          Reply
      • Gezza

         /  September 11, 2017

        Maybe he means Bill English the computer guy, cos his keypad’s playing up?
        Not Bill English, the soon possibly former Prime Minister?

        Reply
    • Corky

       /  September 11, 2017

      Take your keyboard and wash it under hot water. That should release the stuck key.

      Reply
      • lurcher1948

         /  September 11, 2017

        It seems to have worked for you.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  September 11, 2017

          I think that should read: ‘ It hasn’t seemed to work for you.’ Smarten up, son. We are in the final days of an election. What would those hard bitten hate filled Union wharfies of yesteryear tjhink of a soft toff like you?

          Reply
        • PDB

           /  September 11, 2017

          That 21 upticks on your comment there Lurch looks suspicious……

          Reply
          • lurcher1948

             /  September 11, 2017

            He’ll I’m loved out there or there’s a glinch on PGs blog

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  September 11, 2017

              🤔 Glinch? Do you mean glitch – or grinch?
              There’s at least a couple of grinches here. Don’t think there’s 21 tho. And I don’t think they’d all uptick you, Lurchy. 😳

  10. phantom snowflake

     /  September 11, 2017

    My favourite comedy moment of the election campaign so far: Mihingarangi Forbes of TV3’s “The Hui” outs ACT’s David Seymour as having Ngapuhi ancestry. The “deer in the headlights” expression, the fumbles and stumbles. Priceless.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  September 11, 2017

      There goes the ‘blue rinse set.’ No way will they be voting for a native. But they’ll now understand where Seymour gets his feralness from.

      Good work by Julie..er, I mean Mihingarangi. ( Maori language week).

      Reply
  11. Corky

     /  September 11, 2017

    Another naive Infidel learns a hard lesson.

    https://en.mogaznews.com/World-News/656937

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  September 11, 2017

      I doubt if that came into it. This happens all the time-boy meets girl, boy and girl have sex, boy doesn’t want to know girl the next day. It’s been going on since time immemorial. Is this the first time that you have heard of this happening ? You must lead a very sheltered life.

      Reply
    • Corky

       /  September 11, 2017

      Forgot to highlight this:

      ”Calling me a ‘daft white s***’ and ‘dirt bag’ was really uncalled for.”

      Of course it was. She should look up taqiyya. Only the ignorant pass this off as par for the course.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  September 12, 2017

        Only the ignorant think that this situation isn’t happening all the time. Or that these expressions are new. Or that this hasn’t happened before and won’t keep happening again when people sleep together and then it turns ugly afterwards.

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  September 12, 2017

          The girl is also Muslim, as it happens.

          They met for sex at an airport hotel.

          As often (usually ?) happens in these situations, the bloke didn’t want to know the girl after that night. Yes, his language was crude and hurtful, But anyone who agrees to meet someone for a night of sex without knowing them must surely know what the consequences are likely to be. It’s a sad fact of life that one person-usually, alas., the man, will then not want to know the other and if the other tries to have a relationship with them, they will end up being hurt and rejected.

          Read Hamlet, where Ophelia’s song when she has gone mad talks about this.The last lines are

          ‘Quoth she ‘ Before you tumbled me
          You promised me to wed.’
          ‘So would I ha’ done, by yonder sun,
          An thou hads’t not come to my bed.’

          Reply
  12. chrism56

     /  September 11, 2017

    If you read his recent columns, Brian Edwards could have become a closet National voter.
    http://brianedwardsmedia.co.nz/
    May his talks with Michelle Boag on Jim Mora’s programme have converted him. That would really upset Whaleoil.

    Reply

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