Newshub/Reid Research poll – huge reversal

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll results show a huge reversal on the last Colmar Brunton polls.

Newshub: National could govern alone in latest Newshub poll

  • National 47.3% (last RR 43.3, last CB 39)
  • Labour 37.8% (last RR 39.4, last CB 43)
  • NZ First 6.0% (last RR 6.6, last CB 9)
  • Greens 4.9% (last RR 6.1, last CB 5)
  • TOP 1.6% (last RR 1.9, last CB 1.9)
  • Maori Party 1.1% (last RR 1.0, last CB 2.0)
  • ACT 0.6% (last RR 0.6, last CB )

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All the pundits will be busy revising all their scenarios.

But Patrick Gower is right about a key thing – party support appears to be volatile. Things could easily change over the next 11 days, although advance voting started yesterday.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 31.7% (last RR 29.9, last CB 35)
  • Bill English  33.1% (last RR 30.1, last CB 31)
  • Winston Peters 6.9% (last RR 6.9, last CB 5)

The poll was conducted 6-11 September and has a margin of error of 3.1%.

The last Reid Research (RR) poll was conducted 22-30 August.
The last Colmar Brunton (CB) poll was conducted 2-6 September.

 

84 Comments

  1. High Flying Duck

     /  September 12, 2017

    Taking it all with a grain of salt given other results, but maybe a sign sanity is returning to the electorate just in time.

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      In its favour is the fact the preferred PM ratings stayed relatively the same whilst the party vote changed dramatically which suggests it may be on the money.

      I also don’t think Ardern suddenly just decided to vote early today either.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  September 12, 2017

        I agree PDB – Jacinda has seen the writing and decided to get the “vote early vote often” message out.
        Also, despite the big difference in the CBON poll and the Newshub one tonight, the trend was the same in both – National up and Labour down.
        Who gets to govern after the election could come down to the smallest margin of whether the Greens end up on 5.1% vs 4.9%

        • PDB

           /  September 12, 2017

          Martyn/Martin Bradbury can vote early AND on the day.

        • Joe Bloggs

           /  September 13, 2017

          please provide a source for the fake news “vote often” slur or retract.

          • High Flying Duck

             /  September 13, 2017

            It was tongue in cheek.
            But feel free to vent righteous fury as every good lefty is brought up to do.

    • So glad for my blood pressure I’ve been out of the country. Very pleased to see the WhatsApp and Facebook messages come firing through with that 47 for the blue team in them. Labour looks decidedly dodgy on tax – say what they will on inheritance and family home. Everything else is up for grabs and that’s got to frighten the horses.

      The whole scenario is very volatile. So much so that If we beat the Boks decisively at the weekend that could be worth a point of two for the Nats and a loss could see a Jacinda gain.

      Anything I’m missing in absentia ?

      • Gezza

         /  September 13, 2017

        Well there’s quite a nice nature story in General Chat – otherwise, no … just the usual barracking about the upvoming elections & the polls, bribes, criticisms & minor shenanigans by various parties about it all.

        Nite trav. Hope your holiday travels are up to your expectations. Off outside to check on my mallard babies over the fence, snuggling, then sleepy byes for me too.

  2. PDB

     /  September 12, 2017

    Otherwise known as the ‘Helen Clark effect’…..

    Ardern’s tax (answer) avoidance is possibly starting to bite.

  3. They posted in anticipation at the Standard at 3 pm and were celebrating. I suspect a bit of deflation – https://thestandard.org.nz/poll-tonight/

    Perhaps when Whale Oil eventually posts on it there could be some revised predictions – or excuses – going on to.

  4. Corky

     /  September 12, 2017

    If this trend continues Labour has no one to blame but themselves. A talkback caller today related he had worked hard all his life. He had once been a socialist but decided to grow up.
    He owns a house, a rental and a beach Bach. He has been unhappy with National and was ready to vote NZ1st. That changed when Jacinda couldn’t explain what taxes she would, or wouldn’t introduce. One vote National.

    • Blazer

       /  September 12, 2017

      really makes no sense..’ was ready to vote NZ1st. That changed when Jacinda couldn’t explain what taxes she would, or wouldn’t introduce. One vote National.

      • Corky

         /  September 12, 2017

        He didn’t want NZ 1ST going into coalition with Labour because Labour haven’t come clean on what policies they would implement. I think his was going to be a protest vote, but like me, he has realised just how dangerous Jacinda would be for New Zealand. Hence, the safety of National.

        • PDB

           /  September 12, 2017

          The time for protest vote is over I think for this election at least.

  5. Appropriate expressions?

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      Personally I don’t think the gap is that large but Ardern has been floundering on tax(especially this morning) and I think the ‘stardust’ period is over. You could also sense Labour & its supporters getting overconfident, smug even, especially with things like the ‘100 day plan’. Of more concern for Labour is the Greens are on the cusp of not making it over 5%.

      Regardless this election is going to the wire.

    • Looks to me like English looks strong, confident, Ardern looks like shes Oliver asking Fagin for more food.

      • Corky

         /  September 12, 2017

        If you think that’s bad, see James Shaw begging for support. The man and his confidence are shot.

        • PDB

           /  September 12, 2017

          Almost felt sorry for him on TV3 begging for anybody that had voted for the Greens a decade ago to give them a vote now………….and then I remembered he openly supports benefit fraud and no obligation benefits for life and I quickly got over it.

  6. Gezza

     /  September 12, 2017

    Not entirely unexpected. People have begun to notice how much is NOT being said by Jacinda, & to realise what a motley crew she’s got.

    National’s crew might be getting a bit mottled, maybe, but at least after all this time most of them know how government works.

    Even if it doesn’t always work smoothly, or produce anything worthwhile but wasted paper – like that ‘yet another feckin useless power point summary’ on mental health needs & services, analysing what the analysers have already analysed a dozen times, & talking the apparent need to get somebody, somewhere, to produce some plans to actually DO SOMETHING!

    So they can be analysed, for a power point report & presentation.

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      I personally blame Aunty Helen coming onto the scene and Ardern stopping use of the word ‘transparent’.

      • Corky

         /  September 12, 2017

        I heard Aunty interviewed on the news…the power has left her voice. She looked very ordinary.

        • PDB

           /  September 12, 2017

          Was this the moment Helen sucked the life-force from Ardern?

          • Corky

             /  September 12, 2017

            Yes, she opened her spleen Chakra and sucked the fresh young life force out of Jacinda. Nothing worse then an aging Vampire.

      • Gezza

         /  September 12, 2017

        I think that was probably on good advice, pants. Quite a few absolutely useless hetero parents have been copping stick for having bloody stupid kids, one nagged & bossed-around party leader with two mum’s will probably never hear the end of it – & what with these various experts overseas now questioning all this gender-bending that seems to be almost being put into curriculums these days, trans parents are probably just a red rag to a bull for some voters, I imagine. 😠

  7. pdm

     /  September 12, 2017

    I believe early voting favours the left as their constituents stumble over polling booths as they wander around town. It means they do not have to make the effort on election day.

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      Unless early voters are people that wouldn’t vote normally early voting should make no difference at all to the election outcome.

      • I think early voting is likely to favour Labour, if, as seems, the glossy romance is beginning to wear off. The longer folk have to ponder before voting, the more likely they are to see through the candidates’ veneers. I am not sure I think early voting is a good thing.

  8. PDB

     /  September 12, 2017

  9. PDB

     /  September 12, 2017

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      What Far-left wing Lizzie is saying is that Ardern has lied to the NZ public about being ‘totally transparent’ regarding Labour’s tax plans. Who would’ve thought?

      • Blazer

         /  September 12, 2017

        no she’s not saying that at all.National rely on wholesale lying,smearing,black ops and bribes to get elected.

        • PDB

           /  September 12, 2017

          Marvelly is saying Labour’s tax policies have been unclear & need clarifying & reasons given whilst Ardern has continually told us she has been ‘very clear’ in telling us what their tax policy is.

          These two are not in agreement. The only lying appears to be coming from you?

        • starting to panic old thing?

  10. Tipene

     /  September 12, 2017

    When Lizzie Marvelly stoops to musing, as opposed to issuing harpy socialist verdicts, you know the Left are losing their mojo.

  11. Patzcuaro

     /  September 12, 2017

    Labour are much more competitive in the high 30s than they were in the mid 20s. I would think that while they may not win they are going to be a much stronger force in the next parliament. National still looks to be in the mid 40s, Labour in the high 30s, NZ First any where between 5 to 10 and the Greens back to 5-7.

    If the Greens make it over 5% then National is still going to need NZ First to get over the line.

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      I can’t see National having enough support to govern alone with ACT – though the dream left-wing ticket of a Labour/Greens/Maori govt appears almost dead based on this poll result if correct.

      • I would be very surprised if National make it with just Seymour. If they do it would be a remarkable result for a fourth term win.

        • PDB

           /  September 12, 2017

          I’m still in the boat of preferring Winston to go with Labour if he is kingmaker and sinking their ship for a few elections to come.

        • Gezza

           /  September 12, 2017

          Maori Party will still be happy to korero, I imagine. If they can get two into The Big House again. Come on bros, vote for these guys!

          • PDB

             /  September 12, 2017

            If Winston is needed by either major party to govern then Maori is on the opposition benches.

            • Gezza

               /  September 12, 2017

              Stop giving me fkn nightmares, pants – or I’ll ask PG to forward you the most horrible email you ever received, with all the sender’s details deleted!

            • PDB

               /  September 12, 2017

              Hey! At least Patu will be feeling better about himself.

            • Gezza

               /  September 12, 2017

              It remains my fondest fantasy nightmare that they turn out to be horribly correct in an alternate reality world, & that having been taken into a coalition with one or other main party, Winston proceeds to destroy bith their respective fortunes & sanity within a matter of weeks, quickly followed by the complete collapse of the government.

              And that we, assembled at their joint farewell from this mortal coil, their having both expired prematurely from shame and complete, & utter, embarrassment, arrive at the chapel just in time to hear the officiating Minister or celebrant say: “Well, they were warned!”

            • Gezza

               /  September 12, 2017

              😮 Oops! c & patu, the above refers to!

              And bith means both! 🙄

              Think I might need a bit of a lie down. 😞

            • Conspiratoor

               /  September 12, 2017

              Cut immigration, foreign ownership, keep graduates at home, close poa and build a rail link to Marsden, enjoys a single malt. Whats not to like G.

            • Patu

               /  September 12, 2017

              The sooner that Pants & yourself accept the inevitable G, the better 😛

            • Conspiratoor

               /  September 12, 2017

              Path, which of winstons policies excites you most?

            • Gezza

               /  September 12, 2017

              😮 Fk! Nearly shat meself!
              Where did you two come from ? 😕

            • Patu

               /  September 12, 2017

              I can’t say that any ‘excite’ me C. I like their policy on immigration, and think that North port needs to happen sooner rather than later.

            • Patu

               /  September 12, 2017

              My ears were burning G, but now I really should get some sleep, ka kite 🙂

    • High Flying Duck

       /  September 12, 2017

      Whatever happens there needs to be a strong opposition.
      The early complacency from National was because they have had their own way for so long with no credible devils advocacy or alternative being put forward to force good decision making.
      Whoever gets in is likely to have to provide proper justification for policies and you be held to account when they stuff up.

  12. chrism56

     /  September 12, 2017

    What has happened to Blazer? He is conspicuous by his absence. One could almost miss him.

  13. robertguyton

     /  September 12, 2017

    “Huge reversal” – that sounds…likely.

    • It is a huge reversal on the CB poll. It doesn’t mean it’s accurate or will stick but it’s the latest indication that nothing can be taken for granted.

      Ok, it’s not a huge reversal for the greens, they remain in the danger zone. I still think they will make it but it depends on a number of things happening for them and against other parties.

      The social media spat between Labour and green supporters and staff won’t be seen by many voters but media have picked it up and it’s likely to affect wider coverage.

      • PDB

         /  September 12, 2017

        In actual fact if you look at just the recent Newshub polls it isn’t that great a surprise as National have remained relatively stable even with Labour going up. It only looks like a major change when compared against recent Colmar Brunton polls.

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/patrick-gower-national-s-attacks-beating-labour-s-vagueness.html

      “Part of Labour’s problem is that it keeps ruling certain tax variations out during heavy interviews. That keeps the story going.

      And the problem now is there is no way out for Labour – it cannot backtrack on this.
      It has to take its vague tax policy all the way to the election – and National will hack at it every step of the way.”

  14. lurcher1948

     /  September 12, 2017

    Wow a stunning result IF you believe the figures Jacindas gone from taxinda to jacindadork on the right wing blogs untill the next poll then she will in their childish way go back to taxinda.

  15. PDB

     /  September 12, 2017

    • Gezza

       /  September 12, 2017

      I can see where he’s probably coming from, although Winston would always be at the piano, singing loudest, off-key, but not caring – while Gareth would probably be in the kitchen – at parties! (Gareth would probably be sniffing around looking for cat food in the cupboards & a cat dinner plate in the corner.)

      • PDB

         /  September 12, 2017

        I think Gareth is politically naïve and attacking Winston may have the opposite effect especially considering NZL First is dropping support anyway.

        • Gezza

           /  September 12, 2017

          I think you’re right. Winston’s been happily slapping & slugging it out with opponents in the ring his entire working career. He thrives on it. Not only that, he manages to it with verve & endless comedy. Morgan’s got no sense of feckin humour at all. He’ll end up kneed in the goolies & gasping on the floor!

  16. Blazer

     /  September 12, 2017

    I thought the swing would be back to National….they have been working hard in the electorates and the never ending scaremongering is having an effect.

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      From what I hear the National volunteers are doing an excellent job on the ground. English has been far more active than Ardern throughout the country as well, whose lack of work ethic is showing. Scaremongering? Labour only have themselves to blame for trying to pretend they have been ‘totally transparent’ about their tax agenda. Funny how they can 100% rule all sorts of tax out before the ‘working party’ meets but can’t rule 100% anything in.

      Don’t panic yet Blazer, still all to play for! Colmar Brunton Thursday may yet tell a different tale.

      • Blazer

         /  September 12, 2017

        no panic here.Had all but conceded a 4th term to the Natz a few weeks ago.Looks like relentless lying is a good strategy….again.

        • PDB

           /  September 12, 2017

          Eh? Apart from now you have been claiming Joyce had cost National the election??

          Ardern lying about being transparent about Labour’s tax plans doesn’t appear to be going down well? If Labour does lose it will be all down to their tax (non)policies.

        • Gezza

           /  September 12, 2017

          Well, to be fair, relentless spending, & relentless not saying how it’s going to be paid for, is probably starting to gnaw at the minds of people who work hard for, & save, every pfennig they’ve got. They’re starting to wonder if Labour plans to giveth, & get the Tax Twerking Group to taketh away. They’re probably also realising Jacinda has never been near the levers of power, nor struggled to manage a household family budget, among other children-in-family things. And that’s not being awful, those are relevant issues for people who’re doing ok, or at least seeing benefits from their investment in themselves & their kids.

          • PDB

             /  September 12, 2017

            I was starting to question the voter common sense that before now couldn’t seem to connect Labour’s large spending & no means to pay for it with Labour not being honest over its tax policies.

        • you are well versed in that strategy so make a good judge….

        • Gezza

           /  September 12, 2017

          Looks like relentless lying is a good strategy….again.
          Looks to me like relentless buying is the strategy we’re seeing. From all of them!

  17. chrism56

     /  September 12, 2017

    Relentless lying is your strategy and it never worked. Remember those manufactured quotes you faked, purportedly as from Paula Bennett. And how is the 18 new taxes list coming on?

    • Blazer

       /  September 12, 2017

      No I don’t.And the 18 tax rises are a fact.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  September 13, 2017

        So new taxes are now “tax rises” are they?
        Are you against overseas multinationals having to include tax on their offerings?

  18. I don’t know know how long the Labour Party has been in existence, but the fact that just a couple of weeks before a critical election they don’t appear to have any idea what their own tax policies are (mumbling about “leaving it to an expert appraisal” when it will be too late for the voters to consider them) seems like a very large Red Flag to me.

    Personally I think Ms Ardern is too lightweight to take charge of a government, being a rather youthfully exuberant lifetime politician who has apparently little experience of the real world or a real job, and leading a party still besotted with blindly throwing gobs of money at gullible voters.

    On the other hand I do believe she shows potentially good qualities for a Leader of the Opposition. I think she will make a good foil for the sheep shearer. She is already keeping him on his toes; ironically unfortunately for herself, some of us will hope.

    • PDB

       /  September 12, 2017

      Regardless of the election outcome Bill English can stand tall. He’s done a hell of a job on the campaign trail and not looked out of place as PM. A good party man that put his hand up to follow one of National’s most popular leaders and try and win an unlikely fourth term in govt. If Ardern misses out this time her time could well come down the track – even Helen lost her first election.

    • Blazer

       /  September 12, 2017

      Examine your working life and you will find that any worthwhile initiatives that have affected it will have come from Labour.National maintain the status quo and never have any foresight.

      • The only good Labour have ever done me was the Douglas/Lange government – you claiming them as your own again?

    • Gezza

       /  September 12, 2017

      I think that’s a pretty good summary of some of my thinking, sailor – when I can be in a mind to be more serious.

      I don’t think Jacinda will be leading the next government. But I think there’s a damn good chance she’ll be leading the one after – if she applies well what she’s learnt these past few weeks & takes a tuff approach to future policy development & candidate selection. She’s got the brains, the gonads, the communication skills, I think – the pragmatism (not yet seen), & the ambition – to do it.

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