Poll trends

Polls are useful indicators, albeit backward looking. Trends are also worth keeping an eye on, but they can disguise sudden shifts.

David Farrar tweeted on a post at Kiwiblog:

This is quite misleading. I don’t know whether this is deliberate or not but the timing of this is questionable. August polls are already out of date. Farrar is National’s pollster.

There has been three public polls in September that add a lot to knowledge of poll trends.

Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2017 is more up to date, and much more informative.

This shows that the dramatic Labour upswing has been sustained in September, and National support is diving.

It also highlights the Green dive in support, and shows that so far there is no sign of the  much touted late campaign improvement for NZ First.

 

10 Comments

  1. sorethumb

     /  September 12, 2017

    I see the gun for hire NZIER is talking up free trade agreements including the right to buy NZ homes
    http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/292979

  2. PDB

     /  September 12, 2017

    As I mentioned a couple of days ago the polls throughout the campaign have actually driven some of the most important developments this election including Little falling on his sword, Turei standing down and Dunne giving up. They have charted the rise of Labour, creating further momentum and sucking the life out of the Greens, NZL First and TOP in the process & turning the contest into a two-horse race. The MSM have jumped onto two recent Colmar Brunton polls that have Labour leading and deduced from this that a change of govt is a formality even though both National & Labour said their internal polling didn’t have Labour leading at the time of the first of these Colmar Brunton polls.

    I’m not sure I can remember a time where the polls have had such an influence on a NZ general election.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  September 12, 2017

      It is all about momentum, Labour has it. The polls crystallised Little’s problems and he resigned. Polls are here to stay, people only complain when the numbers are going against them. Both parties use internal polling, National under Key more or less ran policy on polls.

  3. NOEL

     /  September 12, 2017

    The pollies say the only poll that maters is the one on the day. I tend to agree on this one occasion against my instinct that they are bullshitters and trough feeders at every turn.

  4. rabinksa

     /  September 12, 2017

    David Farrar produces this graph after the end of each month as I recall. My bank sends me a statement of account after the end of each month; my account now is not the same as it was at the end of last month. Is it misleading of my bank to send me the statement?

    • Patzcuaro

       /  September 12, 2017

      The bank sends your statement at the start of the month not 10 days in or these days you down load it yourself.

      Disinformation is a political art, that is why we have websites like real clear politics. National are masters at it, except for Stevenomics which fell a little flat

      • High Flying Duck

         /  September 12, 2017

        Labour is countering with “no-information”. Seems to be working so far.

        • Blazer

           /  September 12, 2017

          poor old Bill,constantly apologising for his colleagues indescretions and tactless bungling.Get a gag for Joyce.

  5. duperez

     /  September 12, 2017

    Polls are indicators of all sorts of things. The presentation and publication of them itself could indicate of all sorts of things. They could disguise sudden shifts. Or other things.

    They can be toys used to mislead, deliberate or not, and of course the nuances of timing are part of the game.

  6. Gezza

     /  September 12, 2017

    The worm has turned
    It’s heading up
    Jacinda’s got them winning
    It’s made poor Steven lose the plot
    It’s got his poor head spinning
    His billions gap was blown apart
    The experts said you plonkers
    Ganesh analysed his bull
    And said you must be bonkers
    Poor Bill’s now throwing handfulls out
    To try & beat the beggars
    While David screams out with a shout
    You spendthrift damn renegers!
    Winston laughs at his own jokes
    About these stupid bribers
    He’s got the best bribes of the lot
    For any rot imbibers
    But never mind, he lets them spend
    He thinks they’ll all be fizzers
    He knows their budgets won’t add up
    And we don’t know what his is!
    😎 😕