1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 44% (last week 43%, previous 43%)
  • National 40% (last week 39%, previous 41%)
  • Greens 7% (last week 5%, previous 5%)
  • NZ First 6%  (last week 9%, previous 8%)
  • TOP 2.0% rounded (last week 1.9%, previous 0.9%)
  • Maori Party 1.1% rounded (last week 2.0%, previous 0.5%)
  • ACT 0.6% (last week 0.1%, previous 0.3%)

The political pendulum has swung again – but this is fairly consistent with last week’s poll.

Greens will be happy to by recovering, but NZ First are trending down.

Labour + Greens would make a majority together, alternately Labour + NZ First. That puts Labour in a strong position.

Polling 9-13 September.
Last week’s polling period was 2-6 September.
The previous polling period was 26-30 August.

However there is talk that one or possibly two other polls have National slightly ahead. Labour’s tax u-turn today suggests they have concerns about their own polling.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 34% (down from 35%)
  • Bill English 32 (up from 31%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (no change)

The full report from last week’s poll (they delay posting this by a couple of days).

Undecideds tonight were 14% – up 4pts.

Still a lot of volatility, so the the election is still up for grabs.

54 Comments

  1. High Flying Duck

     /  September 14, 2017

    Yo…yo…I think it’s going to be up in the air until around 10pm on the 23rd…unless we get a bombshell from somewhere.

  2. I believe PG is right, Labour’s poll must have them behind and losing votes for the U turn. If they were ahead, they would have held their nerve.
    I wonder if Jacinda is as bad at captain’s calls as Tony Abbott was?

  3. Trevors_elbow

     /  September 14, 2017

    The divergence in polls is very interesting Colmar B seem to off on their own…. i wonder why and if they are right why hasJacinda flipped on taxes….

  4. Corky

     /  September 14, 2017

    Neck and neck, undecided voters rising and its unknown if young folk will be voting. Winston looks like a spent force and the Greens are back on the board. I have to agree with HFD.

    However, my dream scenario seems to be fleshing out. A Labour/Green coalition with Labour hog tied on certain policies until the next election. What a train wreck- what fun.

    Lets do this.

    • PDB

       /  September 14, 2017

      Lets redo this.

    • Gezza

       /  September 14, 2017

      20+% patu? 😮
      Hope you haven’t bet the house on that! 😬

      • patupaiarehe

         /  September 14, 2017

        My only bet is $1 on a NZF Green coalition G. A week is a long time in politics…

        • Gezza

           /  September 14, 2017

          True. I see in this poll the Green rocket is struggling back up a little from its death dive!

          • patupaiarehe

             /  September 14, 2017

            They’ll be fine G. Metiria is going to win Te Tai Tonga anyway, so even at current polling James has nothing to worry about 😉

            • Gezza

               /  September 14, 2017

              Shit! You’re right of course.
              When have you ever been wrong?
              WTF was I thinking ? 😬

            • Patu

               /  September 14, 2017

              I’m always right G, just ask my wahine. Except for that one time when I thought I was wrong, but wasn’t… 😀

  5. chrism56

     /  September 14, 2017

    The Herald see it as a poll driven change
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11922436
    I love how she had to cancel the trip to Coes Ford to make a protest about the dirty water because the river is flooding. According to the scientists, it would be more contaminated now than during dry weather. She could always divert her protest to Auckland beaches where it is very contaminated now, but they aren’t going to be paying the water tax!

  6. chrism56

     /  September 14, 2017

    Auckland beaches are more polluted than any of the dirty rivers, and not a dairy cow in sight.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11786380

  7. Zedd

     /  September 14, 2017

    Paddy Gower was not ‘CROWING’ as loud as the other day, (Reid/newshib) when he stated Natz can govern alone & ‘Greens are Goneski’ (his word)

    based on this.. its still neck-neck.. but looking like a change is still likely ?!

    BUT; 23/9 is the only one to really count…. 🙂

    • Gezza

       /  September 14, 2017

      Paddy Gower is always just a greasy smudge on my television screen!

  8. PDB

     /  September 14, 2017

    Everybody is talking how different the Colmar Brunton is to Reid Research but has anybody mentioned this?

    Undecided/wouldn’t say

    *Colmar Brunton – 15%
    *Reid – 3.9%

    • PDB

       /  September 14, 2017

      From that it would appear Reid is far better at getting a preference from those polled?

      • Gezza

         /  September 14, 2017

        I wonder if they get lied to just keep them moving thru the questions? One pollster tried to tell me I couldn’t have a ‘not sure’!

  9. robertguyton

     /  September 14, 2017

    Neck and neck?
    Pffffffft
    Pete George writes: “Labour + Greens would make a majority together, alternately Labour + NZ First. That puts Labour in a strong position.”

    Suck it up – eh, Pete!

    • PDB

       /  September 14, 2017

      If you believe the Greens are at 7% & Labour as high as 44% you also believe in the tooth fairy. Labour wouldn’t have backed down today on tax if that was the case.

      Too close to call, but I think I’m on the money above as to why the differences between the two major polls.

      • Patzcuaro

         /  September 14, 2017

        You can believe what you want, the divergence is interesting, there must be a reason behind it but the only poll that really matters is Saturday week.

        We haven’t seen much of Joyce lately, still plotting away in the background no doubt but if Nationals get back in does he have any credibility left to be Finance Minister.

      • robertguyton

         /  September 14, 2017

        I do, PDM/B, to all three. Jacinda for Empress!

      • I concur. If Labour believed they were ahead, they would not have panicked and done a Claytons capitulation. Their research is telling them they buggered it up.

        However, I’m not sure they’re as much as ten points down either.

  10. Tipene

     /  September 14, 2017

    I don’t see the Greens getting over the threshold on Election night, and I’m starting to think the same for NZ First.

    I’m one of the 14% undecided, and was leaning towards NZ First, but if National are looking too close to call, I’m going to try and help National get over the line instead.

    What can I say – I’m a swinging voter who is making the best of what’s on offer – and it ain’t much.

    • robertguyton

       /  September 14, 2017

      The Greens,Tipene, will fly in! 7% should alert you to your misconception.

      • Tipene

         /  September 14, 2017

        The Greens bleed like a hemorrhaging artery on Election night – a 2% buffer won’t be enough to save them, and the same I think for the 1% buffer for NZF.

        MMP is now on life support.

        • robertguyton

           /  September 14, 2017

          A 2% buffer? pffffffft The Greens are on 7%, according to the poll and on their way to a bigger number, if you compare tonight’s result with Tuesdays! Glory bless!

      • Pete Kane

         /  September 14, 2017

        Although I felt a Green return Robert, this poll was slight relief, I must admit.

        • robertguyton

           /  September 14, 2017

          The relief is palpable, Peter Kane. The whole situation is quite schizophrenic – my advice; spend some time in the garden, easing your soul. All will be well.

          • Gezza

             /  September 14, 2017

            Get yourself a stream! Best thing.
            Sir Gerald.

            • Pete Kane

               /  September 14, 2017

              Live Stream G? (How’s your Mum?)

            • Gezza

               /  September 14, 2017

              Ma’s good thanks Pete. Really good. I still end every call she makes to me in the morning with “Righto! Gotta go! Love ya ma! Bye!” because a man can only take so much lecturing from his mum about not catching your death of cold “out there at that stream again” in the wet or windy weather – when he’s heard it a thousand times already! 💝

  11. David

     /  September 14, 2017

    DPF is heavily hinting that Colmar Brunton have got this wrong, UMR were silent when the Newsub poll was released which is probably the biggest tell from the leaky left. Jacinda didnt drop her tax plan because her polling was holding up and looking good. One news may have some questions to answer.

    • robertguyton

       /  September 14, 2017

      DPF is “fomenting” (Lying) Fify

    • Patzcuaro

       /  September 14, 2017

      National seems to be rattle enough to be dipping into the lolly bag again, offering to help young farmers into Landcorp farms. If they throw enough lollies around maybe they will get enough votes, a bit like treating.

      • PDB

         /  September 14, 2017

        Considering Labour’s spending promises are tracking well over twice National’s that is a bit rich.

        • Patzcuaro

           /  September 14, 2017

          Is that using Joyce’s calculator.

          • PDB

             /  September 14, 2017

            Try ‘bribe-o-meter’ – backs its stuff up with a detailed cost breakdown unlike your mindless ponderings.

    • robertguyton

       /  September 14, 2017

      I see a rise and a fall.
      Sweet dreams, all.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  September 14, 2017

      Yep there is a trend there, spotted long ago by the master currency trader.

  12. Patzcuaro

     /  September 14, 2017

    The only certainty is that the sun will rise on Sunday 24th September.

  13. Gezza

     /  September 15, 2017

    For me, the thing to look for is the moon!
    Who’s over it?
    Who’s been mooned?
    Who’s now got something to moon about?
    Whose moon is rising? Whose may be setting?
    Who’s beaming like the moon?
    Who’s a full moon?
    Who’s a new moon?

    The answers are often in the moon. Reminds me, I’d better check the sun/moon schedules.

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