Last debate, Ardern versus English

The last debate between Bill English and Jacinda Ardern will be on TVNZ 1 at 7 pm tonight. I think that Mike Hosking will be back running it after an illness ruled him out of the second debate.

English was rocked by a bad poll result before that debate, but it has swung the other way with tonight’s Colmar Brunton poll has national back up to 46% and labour slipping 7 to 37%.

It will be interesting to see who is finishing the campaign stronger.

The Spinoff:  The final battle: A fight to the death in the last English-Ardern debate

Duncan Greive:

What we saw tonight was essentially the entire campaign, distilled. English: dogged, stolid, indefatigable. Ardern: passionate, idealistic, frustrated.

English looks like he has grown into the task and is enjoying it, Ardern looks like she is just about over it – but she may have to pick herself up on Sunday and launch into another major exercise for a few weeks, which may launch into three years of hard yakker.

Simon Wilson: Ardern failed to land a death blow.

Jacinda need to crush Bill tonight. Land those body blows, leave him looking like he wasn’t sure what day it was.

She was never going to do that with reason or calm reassurance, and certainly not with relentless positivity. The defining characteristics of her campaign have been phenomenally successful, but at this point, like the campaigns of Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders, they have not been successful enough.

Annabelle Lee: The winner on the day was… that giant desk

Both Ardern and English gave as good as they got and played well to their respective strengths (him: it’s the economy stupid. Her: kids are living in cars stupid) so no clear winner other than the desk which could double as the iceberg in the remake of The Titanic.

Ben Thomas: A plodding draw

It was also a harder English that emerged. Rightly challenged on his characterisation of Labour scrapping planned tax cuts as a “tax rise”, he doubled down. Asked about the now-notorious $11 billion, he nakedly misrepresented the argument and its outcome saying economists agreed there was a “hole” (no economists agreed, either on the accounting or the metaphor). Hosking slumped in his seat exasperated, but Ardern’s response of surprise rather than fury failed to settle the matter for anyone unfamiliar with the facts (still a possibility even after the last few exhausting weeks). She called him “mischievous”, which fed into English’s narrative that it was all just a typical politicians’ semantic playfight.

Ardern’s own vision, expressed during the election period as a concern for the children in poverty and locked out of homes, didn’t make an appearance until the dying minutes. It was her strongest moment, but not enough to save the debate from being a plodding draw.

Madeleine Chapman: Please, god, can this be over now?

This debate was so boring. Usually I can do screengrabs while also remaining engaged but by god, I felt like I was watching a family argue at dinner.

I think a lot of people are over the campaign.

When Jacinda told Bill “look me in the eye” regarding his insistence that Steven Joyce (very much wrong) was right about the $11.7b Labour fiscal hole, I expected her to follow up with an “I’m the captain now” to make all my meme dreams come true. Instead I could only manage some uninspired memes from an uninspiring debate.

I think that most people have already decided or will still be undecided after this debate.

Leave a comment

64 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  20th September 2017

    Watching it head into final straight.

    Tonight’s CB poll notwithstanding, assessment:

    Excellent work by Hosking

    Solid performance by Bill.

    Stellar performance by Jacinda.
    They can’t beat her down with numbers now. She has them.

    Saturday will be an edge-of-seat election.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  20th September 2017

      Final message to viters frim each of them?

      Bill’s was the best.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  20th September 2017

        😳 🙄 😡 * voters from

        Reply
      • lurcher1948

         /  20th September 2017

        Are you mad Gezza i wanted hosking to SHUT UP and let her talk, bill looked old and gray,hosking and bill GANGED up on JACINDA, and she looked healthy and brighter

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  20th September 2017

          Fuk, Lurch. If you are drinking, stop.
          If you’re not – start.
          You need a mental restart.

          Reply
    • Maggy Wassilieff

       /  20th September 2017

      Stellar???

      She had her usual platitudes.
      No details, never answered questions about how she would deal with Winston.
      Vacuous.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  20th September 2017

        Not what I was talking about, actually, or how I see it. But I’ll leave it at that for the moment, until your blood pressure settles down again.

        Reply
      • Blazer

         /  20th September 2017

        and Bill did?After 9 years,National awake from their slumber….hopeless.

        Reply
      • Gezza

         /  20th September 2017

        So, just to point our where, tho I understand your heartfelt passion behind your cruel & unkind remark about poor Princess Jacinda, she who would be Queen of All The Little Children at Skool And Even In Kindy, Maggy – that CB poll tonite should have rocked her, and perhaps it even did, but she was right on her game. That Comms Degree would’ve included PR, packaging, messaging, targetting – and she does all of those things correctly.

        She has to carry that entire Party because with Annette gone the rest of them are a right bloody shower. I wouldn’t trust them to walk a dog.

        She pitches well to particular demographics who WILL vote for her where they might well not have voted for Andy, Her “look” for tonight was cleverly arranged & targeted too. She handled the intimate 3-person-discussion style of this debate format well. She smacked Bill down where he exposed himself foolishly as a bullshitter, publicly, firmly, and she had a rationale, good understanding of, and intelligible, intelligent reasoning behibd those of theur policies they are focussing on. The discussion about the Korean FTA was remarkable. I like Bill & she made him look a bit daft on that.

        Is she a genuine socialist? I don’t think so. I think she’s genuinely clever, and genuinely ambitious. I think she’s actually tuff as nails & quite possibly even ruthless. We’ll see. I think Labour is actually a vehicle for her ambition. But she’ll stick with it. She’ll change it. She’ll learn quickly on the job as leader. If she can’t get traction in polls she’ll change their policies.

        I can’t tell how things will end up going on election night. I think people were starting to wonder about whether she’s got the goods – imo the Princess obviously isn’t up to the top job in the land though. Nowhere near enuf of an apprenticeship completed for that. i suspect the public will conclude the same thing.

        Reply
        • Maggy Wassilieff

           /  20th September 2017

          Gosh, no need to explain things Geeza.
          I’m very relaxed about not seeing things the way other folks do.
          It would be a ghastly world if we all thought alike.

          Reply
    • alloytoo

       /  20th September 2017

      Has what?

      Her standard response is “When I talk to people…….”

      That’s her response to hard stats…….”When I talk to people……..”

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  20th September 2017

        Bills standard response…’we don’t agree with that/those figures/whatever…’

        Reply
        • alloytoo

           /  20th September 2017

          Difference is of course Bill actually had the stats to back it up

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  20th September 2017

            Ah, no – she knows the numbers that count, and the numbers EVERYONE knows Steven & Bill made up & lied about.

            Reply
            • High Flying Duck

               /  21st September 2017

              Perhaps you need to look at this Gezz – sumarises what Bill and Steven have been saying all campaign pretty well.

              Full tables are provided by link.

              http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/09/labour_have_not_left_enough_cash_for_cost_pressures.html

              “This is a summary prepared by the former senior Treasury official. It is not a hole, but it is a shortfall. They have no capacity to fund any impact of wage and cost inflation and this is just over $10 billion.

              They have left themselves $7.5 billion (cumulative) for new policies for the next three years. Even if they didn’t announce a single new policy in their entire term of Government, they’s still have a shortfall because of cost pressures on existing programmes.”

            • Gezza

               /  21st September 2017

              Ok. Bugger.

            • To sum up – obviously Labour didn’t budget any additional funding for any govt dept outside of Health & Education for years 2&3 because they were relying on the tax working group (formed in year 1) to push for a CGT & land tax from year 2 onwards to make up the multi-billion $ shortfall. Massive fail for them doing the tax U-turn.

            • Gezza

               /  21st September 2017

              Fuxake! I said ok. Don’t bloody nag!

            • High Flying Duck

               /  21st September 2017

              What Labour did was (correctly) include the “surplus” of increased tax revenues from inflation as per the PREFU in their plan, but kept baseline spending on their policy increases at the original un-inflated level in following years.
              So $100 tax revenue and $100 expenditure in year 1 becomes $104 tax revenue due to inflation in year 2, while expenditure is left at $100.
              It all adds up and looks wonderful, but is completely unworkable.

            • Blazer

               /  21st September 2017

              @HFD…’a former Treasury official’…how compelling…NOT,aside from the fact that the Natz have said Treasury are hopeless at forecasts.So whats his name?…not anon..is it..Bol!As for your example…who says inflation will skyrocket to…4%..you or the former anonymousTreasury ..official.?

            • High Flying Duck

               /  21st September 2017

              Thanks again for lowering the tone. Feel free to chime in on the substantive aspects, which to me are pretty clear.
              The spreadsheet doesn’t forecast – it shows discrepancies.
              The PREFU includes inflation in revenue figures – so all things being equal, tax revenues rise every year – and this is what happens in PREFU which Labour have used to show increasing revenues.
              PREFU does not include the same inflation adjustment on the expenditure side. As such, parties generally set aside an amount to cover inflation on existing costs the expense side. This is an amount required to effectively “stand still”.
              Labour included increased spending in Health & Education as nominal amounts – so the increases include the inflation adjustment.
              They completely ignored this on all other aspects of Government spending.
              As such, their budget as it stands provides for a real reduction in spending in all departments outside health and education.
              I am happy to discuss the actual facts – feel free to find fault in the figures, or dispute the outcomes, but if you’re going to go off on your usual tangent I won’t bother.

            • Blazer

               /  21st September 2017

              these projections/forecasts are just opinion.The fact remains that not one economist has validated Joyces claims of an $11.7 bil hole.

            • Gezza

               /  21st September 2017

              Yep. That’s Bill’s problem. I accept he’s right that they haven’t budgetted properly for some needed operating expenditure. But he’s wrong to insist that Steven’s claim of an 11.7 billion hole is right. The economists all agreed that’s not correct. So therefore he’s bullshitting, & people know it, & that’s not smart.

          • Alloytoo

             /  20th September 2017

            Labour producing 2 zero growth budgets and not giving in to greens Wishlist? Bill made his point, that will never happen.

            Reply
      • unitedtribes2

         /  20th September 2017

        .”When I talk to people……..”

        Andrew Little advised her on that

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  20th September 2017

          It’s perfectly fkn obvious Jacinda’s reliance on advice about leadership & anything from Andy is around < 1 %.

          Reply
        • Blazer

           /  20th September 2017

          Crosby Textor advised Bill on …be more animated,smile,look at the camera…be decisive…and Joyce of course…make up an out rageous lie,as a distraction.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  20th September 2017

            Bill’s trying to keep Steven’s BIG LIE alive, when he know its a lie, & trying to say Labour will be raising taxes by cancelling next years piffling little tax cuts – when that’s not the same thing, was a boo boo, because that’s another lie & a Catholic should fkn know that. His priest will be wanting a word.

            On balance I think we’d be better off with another National-led coalition with their current support parties being needed, & a resurgent Labour breathing down their necks keeping them focussed on having to address the things that do need fixing. This campaign has done that to quite a degree, I reckon.

            They’d get the arse card next time.

            Reply
            • “trying to say Labour will be raising taxes by cancelling next years piffling little tax cuts”

              It is 100% an income tax increase, to argue otherwise is nonsense.

            • Gezza

               /  20th September 2017

              Fukn is not. How many of you fkn Catholics bloody are there?

            • Strangely enough passing legislation in the house to raise income tax is……….(wait for it)…………an income tax increase.

            • Gezza

               /  20th September 2017

              Legislation would be passed to cancel legislation that from the first of April would reduce people’s income tax, before they had had any actual monetary reduction in their current level of income tax.

              There would be no change to the current amount of income tax they are paying.

              Therefore Labour would not be increasing their income tax. Therefore to say they will be increasing people’s income tax is not true, it’s not semantics, it’s devious, & it’s a lie.

  2. Blazer

     /  20th September 2017

    must agree,that Hosking handled it in an even handed fashion.

    Reply
    • I think Hosking is generally an arse the little I see of him on TVon whatever programme he is on at 7 pm usually, and I don’t care for his columns, but last election and this he has done a good job with the debates.

      Reply
  3. Zedd

     /  20th September 2017

    Jacinda won hands down,, mainly because she looked genuine/honest.

    English was still doing the overt scaremongering & misinfo. about taxes & the alleged $11.7bil hole, that no one else, beside Natz seem to think exists !
    All the talk about the strong economy, Labour/Greens will bring the whole thing down, is actually an insult to the intelligence of Jo & Joe kiwi. They ran 9 straight surpluses, under the last Labour Govt. !! 🙂

    Hosking was OK, but they could have chosen someone who does not spend every hour on the air singing Natz praises & putting the boot into Labour/Greens.. & it showed 😦

    Reply
  4. Conspiratoor

     /  20th September 2017

    Immigration was the first blow to the body …foreign buyers the coup de grace. Jacindas back on top!

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  20th September 2017

      We’ll see. Her inexperience for the job of running the country is giving my neighbours the shits.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  20th September 2017

        Especially when they look at who would be her top Ministers.

        Reply
      • Blazer

         /  21st September 2017

        as I’ve said what experience at running the country do new P.M’s have…look at Key…perfect example.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  21st September 2017

          Yeah, I understand that Blazer, & it’s a valid point to make. But she hasn’t even yet had a year running an actual Parliamentary caucus. Would you just up & hand over control of your Billion Dollar company to the bright, flashy, smooth talking young apprentice, because half the staff think she’s spunky?

          Reply
        • Gezza

           /  21st September 2017

          Just got off the blower with ma. Grumping that’s the third time she’s called & was out there in that rain those blimmin birds again. (Short answer, yes, but I didn’t want to get into that, so I distracted her quickly asking how much her phone bill was).

          Anyway, thing is, I asked if she watched last nite’s debate. She said: “No! I’ve had enough of all that rot! I know who I’m voting for & I’ve already voted!”

          Who for?
          Greg OConnor & Labour Party.
          Do you really think that girl is up to running the country ma?
          They don’t run the country. Other people run the country. They’re just the front people. It’s like when I was working. The management didn’t run the company. The staff did.

          Reply
  5. Fight4NZ

     /  21st September 2017

    What was Mike Hoskings comment to Bill towards the end? “If you can’t see that you’re delusional”. Even as dedicated a sycophant as him was unable to contain his disbelief at the cold, unrelenting, power fanatical, lie machine that Bill is only the head of.
    It is incomprehensible and shameful to see, as demonstrated here, that people still want there country run by those so bereft of moral compass. What would it take?

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  21st September 2017

      What would it take? Mass Arrests & banishment to concentration camps for seditious speech of all opposition & critical media personnel. We’re some way off from that & it is important that you get a grip on yourself – or perhaps release your grip on yoursef ?
      Whatever, what I mean is you are going overboard.
      Never lose your biscuit, as a wise old Yoda has recently said.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  21st September 2017

        Sorry about this. I haven’t had much sleep. Just realised I could actually be feeling a bit unhinged. See how we go. Might need a nana nap.

        Reply
        • Pickled Possum

           /  21st September 2017

          Yes its called ‘burning the candel at both ends’ Goodnight Irene.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  21st September 2017

            At least with me it’ll just be a temporary thing Possum. A nap should fix it. There’s couple here I’m frankly surprised are still walking the streets. Not mentioning any names. They’d lose the plot even more than they already have. Toodle-loo for now.

            Reply
  6. Gezza

     /  21st September 2017

    I have to say, after carefully reading all posts above, and from a purely neutral & completely objective viewpoint, ignoring any downticks – because they are so obviously from completely unreasonable & awful people who should probably not even have been allowed to stay up as late as they did – I reckon I won this thread tonite.

    Reply
    • Fight4NZ

       /  21st September 2017

      Really? By weak personal attacks?
      I suppose it works for National and supporters.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  21st September 2017

        Well, I’m not really a National supporter. I wouldn’t vote for them. And I felt that mild-mannered humour might be a way to get some smiles from someone. But, yeah I might’ve been a bit rough on the Dooleys. As an ex-catholic with a working brain I struggle to understand why they still have any members at all tbh. And to claim to be one & then fib like nobody’s business in breach of the commandments really jangles my confusion bells.

        If you’re new here it’s nice to see you. Good to have more perspectives to consider & debate. This is a damn good forum in that respect because Pete George is mostly a neutral observer, a thoughtful & i think wuite insightful political analyst, & he allows & encourages open, reasoned debate, with a good chunk of tolerance, of robust argument & humour – and very fair approach to (rare) moderator intervention that people here seem to respect.

        But I just think you may be going a bit over the top in ascribing what you make sound like pure evil as Bill & National’s motivation.

        I mean – do you really believe that?

        Reply
  7. Lenna Gracie

     /  21st September 2017

    always debates getting a crowd

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s