Pondering who to vote for

I am yet to decide who to vote for. I’l make up my mind tomorrow. Some thoughts on it…

National

Have done a reasonable job over nine years in sometimes very challenging circumstances. Making worthwhile moves to address social issues more effectively. Too slow to react to housing issues. Bill English is reliable and has had a good campaign.

The safe vote, but on on the cusp of needing refreshing with a new government. Now or next time?

Labour

Have been poor in opposition for 9 years. An inexperienced lineup with little ministerial experience. Jacinda Ardern has turned them around in the polls and shows promise, but unproven even as a party leader. Is this an election too soon?

Greens

Dragged down by Turei’s power play and their swing to social and from environmental issues. Shaw has done a very good job of repairing the damage, they should beat the threshold and should be in Parliament, but a risk if too influential in government. Hampered by their refusal to work more with National.

NZ First

Unknown who they would side with and what they would ask for in coalition negotiations, so a big risk. Vague bottom lines. Many vague and some bizarre policy positions. Winston Peters obviously past his prime, he has had a poor campaign. An anonymous party beyond Peters. If Shane Jones is the answer what is the question?

Maori Party

Working hard for their constituency, play a useful role in Parliament, prepared to work with any party to achieve what they can – that’s how MMP should work.

ACT

Overshadowed by National. David Seymour has worked hard during the term but seems to have faded in the campaign. struggling to be more than a one person party, but a partner MP for Seymour would be good. A useful voice for limiting government power and spending.

TOP

Some very good campaigning and some very poor campaigning. Polls suggest they are well short of the threshold, Gareth Morgan claims the polls are wrong but everyone blames the polls when things don’t look good. They would only sit on the cross benches promoting more evidence based policy so would be a useful addition to Parliament, but the system (threshold) is stacked against them.

A vote for any other party would be futile.

I won’t vote for NZ First. I will consider voting for any of the others.

I think the big questions are whether National has done their dash or will be ok for another term, and whether it’s too big an ask for Ardern to lift herself another notch to lead a poorly performing Labour caucus as well as either or both of Greens and NZ First in a coalition/governing arrangement.

Personally I have most to gain from a National government, paying $1000 less tax per year is very tempting. But there are other factors, and I’m tempted by a Government refresh, and Ardern has shown promise.

For me it comes down largely to the proven, warts and all, versus new but unproven, warts and all.

82 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  September 22, 2017

    You missed out ‘not voting’ as an option, Pete. Given your vacillation and undecidedness, not voting seems the logical option to me.

    • Blazer

       /  September 22, 2017

      ‘do nothing,say nothing,be…nothing’.

      • Corky

         /  September 22, 2017

        You have pretensions, Blazer. You don’t think you and I are somebody do you?.

        • Blazer

           /  September 22, 2017

          not unless you believe you are some inferior being because you are not ..’famous’.

      • PDB

         /  September 22, 2017

        Some real personal insight & in-depth analysis about yourself Blazer – thanks for sharing.

    • Gezza

       /  September 22, 2017

      Given your vacillation and undecidedness, not voting seems the logical option to me.

      That’s because 🐞
      Remember ?

      We’ve discussed this 3 times.

  2. PDB

     /  September 22, 2017

    Pretty much it all boils down to either taking National’s tax cuts which sees the benefits better shared around including all taxpayers, people on super, single-people, people paying too much tax due to tax bracket creep, couples with no children as well as families OR taking Labour’s package which just helps families who already receive mountains of help from the govt.

  3. Ray

     /  September 22, 2017

    If you can’t make up your mind about the major Parties and risk a vote on the minors think on this.
    Talking to an ex National Party District President last night he pointed out that voting Green just about guaranteed a National Government. Despite Green claims to the contrary.
    That is presuming who ever governs need Winston and he will not go with the Greens as he doesn’t like sharing the limelight

    • PDB

       /  September 22, 2017

      Depends where those ‘green votes’ come from – if they came from National or Winston that could mean either National doesn’t have the numbers to form govt or Labour/Greens/Maori can form a govt without needing Winston.

      At present it appears Labour and Greens are just swapping votes between each other.

  4. Tipene

     /  September 22, 2017

    Either way, NZ First is going to needed – I think I’ve decided.

    • PDB

       /  September 22, 2017

      Winston is the poison apple, will it be Ardern or English taking a bite?

      • Ray

         /  September 22, 2017

        Absolutely, who ever takes a bite will be out of power for quite some time after the disaster the next three years will be.

  5. Maggy Wassilieff

     /  September 22, 2017

  6. A few thoughts.
    You won’t be able to find a party you agree with everything.
    Change for change’s sake is dangerous.
    Not voting is not an option.
    Voting is not about picking a winner or trying to outgun the poll interpreters.
    You have to look at who the figurehead is bringing with them.
    I’ve already voted, and although you say, “A vote for any other party would be futile,” I’m happy that in voting for a minor party, which on the face of it appears to have little chance of entering parliament, I’ve voted according to my principles and values.

  7. A few thoughts.
    You won’t be able to find a party you agree with everything.
    Change for change’s sake is dangerous.
    Not voting is not an option.
    Voting is not about picking a winner or trying to outgun the poll interpreters.
    You have to look at who the figurehead is bringing with them.
    I’ve already voted, and although you say, “A vote for any other party would be futile,” I’m happy that in voting for a minor party, which on the face of it appears to have little chance of entering parliament, I’ve voted according to my principles and values.

    • High Flying Duck

       /  September 22, 2017

      You can say that again!…oh wait a minute

    • sorethumb

       /  September 22, 2017

      I voted TOP. I’ve read 3 of Gareths books. I like the no exceptions approach to taxation as what goes around comes around (better future guaranteed ).

  8. David

     /  September 22, 2017

    National arnt perfect but have done a pretty good job and I think we will see more of an emphasis on improving the social side of the equation under English than Key and we have some pretty awful entrenched issues.
    On a comparison with any other comparable country we are doing exceptionally well. I think Jacinda while lovely is a dreamy eyed socialist and the rest of her party are just untalented and not ready, hence their empty policies. Winston is looking a bit sad and old, Greens are way too left wing which is a shame, TOP have loopy ideas and Morgan would be an awful politician, I like Marama Fox and Flavell and hope they get back in as its important to have a Maori Party for some balance. Hope Seymour gets back and rolls out more charter schools. National/Maori/Act government would be good.
    So National for me but cant decide on local MP, might be the incumbent Labour woman at this stage.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  September 22, 2017

      For the electorate candidate you can vote for any candidate without effecting the result except in Epsom. You might as well vote for the most competent. Encumbrance appears to be hard to beat, probably name recognition.

      Labour should seriously look at an Epsom like electorate deal next time to even things up. It is a bit like the Americas Cup, Labour starts on -1 because of Epsom.

      At the beginning of the campaign I was going to vote TOP but due to the Jacinda affect they didn’t get any traction, if Little had stayed they may have. The Greens need to move more to the centre, they could be quite an effective force if they could go with either party. It will be interesting to see what happens now that Turei has gone.

      Having started voting in 1975 I’m not keen on giving one party carte blanche so won’t be voting National, but won’t lose any sleep if they form the next government with handbrakes (I don’t count ACT as a handbrake). I could have voted Maori but if they win 2 electorate seats they will need to get 2.3% for Fox to get back which doesn’t look likely at present.

      So with the Greens safe(?) and Labour slipping I’ve voted Labour but they probably would be better in 3 years time. It would give Ardern a chance to find her feet and others to stand up.

      • Patzcuaro

         /  September 22, 2017

        Voting NZ First is a bit like a hail Mary pass, you don’t really know who will catch it.

  9. I honestly thought it was a spoof. Apparently not! So if you’re looking for a young lady who’s “willing to do anything for the Greens,” look no further.
    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1515949998486618&id=10779081371

    • Actually, I think I’ve been had. The link doesn’t work and the url is not the Green Party’s even though when you click in the post it takes you to their legit page. Some folks are just too clever.

  10. Gezza

     /  September 22, 2017

    Maori Party
    Working hard for their constituency, play a useful role in Parliament, prepared to work with any party to achieve what they can – that’s how MMP should work.

    Absolutely. 👍🏼 Getting my Party Vote. First time. There aren’t enuff of them.

  11. BobJ

     /  September 22, 2017

    National for me, the prospect of a Labour, Greens, NZFirst combination is to hideous. Labours refusal to spell out tax plans and there dishonesty over the tax ‘increase’ next year clinched it, from 1 April income tax under National will be X, under Labour it will by Y and Y will be higher than X, what its called is semantics, it will still be more/higher.

    • Fight4NZ

       /  September 22, 2017

      Bill is 100% in agreement, there just isn’t enough transparency.
      But if you send 450 texts to the central figure in a police investigation, just delete them and refuse to comment.

  12. Patzcuaro

     /  September 22, 2017
  13. PDB

     /  September 22, 2017

    • Patzcuaro

       /  September 22, 2017

      Can you amplify on how a Labour lead government would legislate to put 50,000 more kids into poverty?

  14. It is easier to decide who not to vote for
    Government departments have become quite dysfunctional in resolving grievances with the public; often because of ill considered regulations, but also through a deliberate procedure process.
    Over the last decade there has been an obvious change in the way government departments are inter-acting with public. This is not just based on my observation and first hand non – help but many other people have experienced the same “culture”.
    It begins with “fobbing off” by the lower ranks. Then longer and longer “delays” in communication. Then the problem (the persistent person) is passed on and on through a line of slow deflecting report writers and finally to someone who then starts talking about “reviews” and then more “reviews.” Resolution is to be avoided at all costs it seems. Keep dragging the chain and they will give up.

    This “culture” flows from the top and has been flowing for 9 years now.
    This can only be corrected by a change of government.

    • Gezza

       /  September 22, 2017

      This is true. The Independent Public Service switched to being Government Servants with the Douglas Admistration, when it was made clear their unwelcome advice was to be taken away, reworked, & resubmitted as welcome advice. It can’t or shouldn’t be done was to be replaced with this is how we will do it. This is the cost.

      Later, this is what could go wrong, this is how we intend to try & avoid that, was added.

      By the time of Bill Birch (Black Adder) senior civil servants were well & truly obeisant, if not downright fawningly obsequious to their political masters. Every administration arranges the removal of at least one recalcitrant or problematic Departmental Head & this is usually sufficient incentive for the others to decide their monumentally fat salaries justify fawning submission from everyone but a lucky few with an intelligent Minister, who will seriously consider advice contrary to their initial directives.

      Helen Clark’s administration – one person in particular whose name we won’t mention – introduced a level of sweating terror in Chief Excecutives that was palpable & scared the shit out of everyone in their Senior Management Groups as well.

      But the Ombudsperson’s Office had the green light to lay into Government Departments with a venegance over piss poor OIA handling & answering official information act requests was a Clark Admin priority.

      • Blazer

         /  September 22, 2017

        nice summary.The protocol with O.I.A requests has been reversed big time by National.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  September 22, 2017

          You’ve got an historical sequence error re Douglas and Birch.

          • Patzcuaro

             /  September 22, 2017

            I don’t think so, by the Douglas administration you mean the Lange government.

            So post Sir Rob’s second term we had Douglas 84-88, Caygill 88-90, Richardson and her mother 90-93, Birch1 93-99, English1 99-99, Birch2 99-99, Cullen 99-08, English2 08-16 and Joyce 16-17.

            And Peters was Treasurer 96-98 whatever that means

          • Gezza

             /  September 22, 2017

            I wondered about that but I don’t think so. He was the fixer in the Richardson Administration too. I’ll check. Might still have my cv n guff on the lappy somewhere here & it lists all my significant projects.

            I had catered afternoon tea in his office with the Policy Manager as a thank you for writing a significant Operational Policy Manual.

            He had a scary reputation, & I know we’d delivered the goods he was after so he had every reason to be happy with us, but i found him generous with praise, modest, appreciative, & a real gent. I think his reputation as a hard man was manufactured. He was a Mr Fixit, but that he got things fixed or done because he was quiet, intelligent, & likeable.

            He always wore black suits. Hence Black Adder.

  15. Conspiratoor

     /  September 22, 2017

    Two ‘highlights’ worth a mention…

    Front line police numbers have failed to keep up with the increase in population
    Exports have flatlined for the last three years

    So how has this rock star consumption-driven economy touched the lives of ordinary kiwis. Unless you are lucky enough to live in a sleepy south island backwater…

    Our roads are congested
    Our infrastructure is looking increasingly third world
    Violent crime continues to rise, fuelled by thriving meth imports from our largest trading partner
    Sales of land to foreigners continues unabated. The stats such as they are, are mind boggling
    Hospitals are overwhelmed on a scale we have never seen (from the front line)
    On an unprecedented scale our kids are destined never to own their own home
    Our mokos will grow up knowing they are second class citizens in what used to be a country governed by their grandparents
    Despite rampant immigration we appear to have a skills shortage. Could it be there may be a skills imbalance caused by 10,000 chefs arriving from the third world and a handful of plumbers from the first world?

    So Bill, what will you do about current immigration levels? “Nothing, it is the price of an open economy”.

    We are fucked if National get another 3 years. At least with the others we have a chance, albeit a slim one

    • Gezza

       /  September 22, 2017

      Not bad. One of your best actually. 👍🏼
      You do better when you don’t let Cam & Scott just do your thinking for you.
      Your lovely daughters would be proud of their dad for this one. 💪🏼 ☑️

      • Conspiratoor

         /  September 22, 2017

        Thanks G. One of my attributes, possibly the only one …is that I’m immune to spin

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  September 22, 2017

      We don’t have a skill shortage. We have a crippling lack of incentive for many to bother getting skilled. If you think Labour and the Greens will fix that you are living in fantasy land.

      • Conspiratoor

         /  September 22, 2017

        Those disincentives have been around for a long time. Ask yourself why this has suddenly manifested itself to the extent it has in the last few years.

        And I don’t harbour any great expectations that labour or the greens will fix a fuckup that national have worked hard over 8 years to produce

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  September 22, 2017

          It hasn’t suddenly manifested. What has happened is a lot of Asian immigration and returnees from Australia has left the unincentivised and unskilled staring at a lot of better motivated people on the heap above them and they don’t like it. Tough.

    • Of course our exports have flatlined. Too many newcomers eating up our produce. Too much production going off shore. Immigrants still coming in … to build house for immigrants. We have to consolidate and start living within our means. Biggering and biggering is not the answer because it is buggering us up.

      • PDB

         /  September 22, 2017

        2 days ago – “Exports rose 5.2 percent, with exports of goods posting its biggest quarterly rise in nearly 20 years.”.

  16. Oliver

     /  September 22, 2017

    TOP 10 percent. You heard it here first. Dumb media got it wrong for Trump, they got it wrong for Corban, and they got it wrong for brexit. Why we bother with those fools is beyond me.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  September 22, 2017

      That would put the cat amongst the pigeons if they got past Morgan.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  September 22, 2017

      Quite a lot of things are beyond you, Oliver.

    • patupaiarehe

       /  September 22, 2017

      LOL Oliver, if the crazy cat hater gets over 1%, I’ll be very surprised… 😀

  17. Patzcuaro

     /  September 22, 2017

    Farrar has posted a nice piece over at kiwibog on how lucky we are.

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/

    If you don’t know where it is.

  18. Lindsay Lilburn

     /  September 22, 2017

    “Slow too react to housing issue’s ”

    The writing was on the wall in 2012 with immigration stats. They did nothing. Then once the property market went crazy and speculation took over. They did nothing.

    National favoured phoney economic growth fuelled by immigration.

    My children now face a life of debt….

    National should be punished for the mess they have created in Auckland.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  September 22, 2017

      Auckland house prices lept under Clark. National’s crime was not undoing her stupidity in the first three years when they had a majority. But they were dealing with the GFC and the earthquakes then. After that the other parties blocked reforms.

      • Blazer

         /  September 22, 2017

        weak…in 2007 Key said he had a 4 point plan to reign in house prices and ensure NZ’ers don’t become tenants in their…own country’..it worked out O.K…though..he just made about 6 million on one of his 6 houses .ALL DONE IN THE BEST…POSSIBLE,,,TASTE.

      • Conspiratoor

         /  September 22, 2017

        So if Auckland prices lept under Clark, how would you describe the increase under national

      • Fight4NZ

         /  September 22, 2017

        Yes the national govt hands were tied. When they finally woke and found a housing ‘crises’ it took a moment for their heads to clear. Hang on here’s our chance to bash up on the RMA and run roughshod over Auckland Council since we don’t seem to be able to get our puppets elected there.
        We won’t really do anything serious about affordability, that could be addressed simply enough by focussing on demand. Just help all our wealthy mates at the banks, real estate agents and in property development. Basically take the asset of Auckland and sell it offshore by proxy.
        The funniest thing is common people will still swallow our line that we run a strong economy not just a pawn shop, and, get this, are doing it to help them, LOL. While sell off their homes from underneath them. Guffaw.
        We add 100’s of thousands to housing cost and then offer back $1000/year as an election bribe and they vote for more. They think that bit of tax tinkering Labour’s suggesting could cost them more. It’s hilarious.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  September 22, 2017

          Classic socialism: let’s reduce demand. Classic liberalism: let’s increase supply to meet demand.

          That’s exactly why socialism makes everyone poorer and fails.

  19. PDB

     /  September 22, 2017

    Personally if Winnie is ‘kingmaker’ I won’t be too fussed who forms govt – would prefer he went with Labour/Greens if it comes to that.

    Anyhow – best of luck to everybody here for tomorrow regardless of who you are voting for. Though it wont provide everybody with their ideal conclusion once a govt is formed one thing is certain and that is post-election there should be plenty to discuss and debate. Also thanks to PG for running such a good blog.

    • Gezza

       /  September 22, 2017

      Given that an uptick.
      You owe me one.
      If you’re a decent bloke.
      That’s how we roll.

  20. sorethumb

     /  September 22, 2017

    National is in bed with the property sector. If anyone saw Nigel Latta’s The New New Zealand and read Michael Reddells expert critique plus his exposing the blind fools at MBIE, you ought to experience disquiet ( to say the least).

  21. sorethumb

     /  September 22, 2017

    Accommodation suppliment is a landlord subsidy – but it’s allright when they do it.

  22. Comments closed for election day. To be consistent I have deleted comments that discussed NZ politics, even though they may have been innocuous.