Don’t rule out all Special Vote possibilities

The current seat allocation (from the Electoral Commission) based on provisional election results:

  • National 58
  • Labour 45
  • NZ First 9
  • Green Party 7
  • ACT Party 1
  • TOTAL 120

This means:

  • National + ACT = 59
  • Labour + NZ First + Greens = 61

There are a lot of assumptions that when the special votes are counted this will change, and the likely change is for Greens or Labour to pick up a seat and for National to lose a seat – this is because last election National lost a seat and Greens gained a seat after the Specials were included.

This is important because if National lose a seat it would give a bit of a buffer over and above a bare 1 seat majority.

Some have suggested National could lose two seats and maybe both Labour and Greens will pick up one each.

But there have been many surprise twists and turns in this election, and there could be more to come.

There are more Specials – about 380 thousand compared to about 300 thousand in 2014 – but this election had quite different factors involved, so don’t rule out other possibilities, which include no change, or any of Labour, Greens or NZ First losing a seat, and National picking up a seat.

Specials have historically favoured Greens in particular and also Labour, and have gone against both National and NZ First.

If NZ First lost a seat and Labour or Greens picked one up it wouldn’t change anything significantly.

But if any of NZ First, Greens or Labour lose a seat and National pick it up that would mean that National + Act = Labour + NZ First + Greens, a tie.

The only way of getting a majority would be for NZ First or Greens (or Labour theoretically) to go with National.

As much as we may like to know how our next Government is going to look as soon as possible, this is why decisions are unlikely to be made until the final results are announced on 7 October.

12 Comments

  1. Zedd

     /  September 24, 2017

    finger crossed.. Lab & Greens increase then.. 😀

    need all the help they can get !

    btw; The Natz hanging on to the same basic number, just proves that they could have put up a line of shop manequins in suits, with Nat. party rosettes on & the staunch tories would still likely have voted for them (IMHO) 😦

    • PDB

       /  September 24, 2017

      You’re sounding increasingly desperate – hopefully a Labour/Greens/NZL First govt will bring economic reality to you. Best to get your excuses in early if it does happen.

      • Zedd

         /  September 24, 2017

        regardless of the outcome.. it can never be what I voted for.. how about you pantz ?

        life goes on………………………. 😦

      • Fight4NZ

         /  September 24, 2017

        We can only hope NZ First can come to agreement with lab/green. It would be so refreshing to have govt working on meaningful economic strategy, not just push up the headcount and gouge public services. But with docile media national can get away with anything.

    • Fight4NZ

       /  September 24, 2017

      The liberal economic agenda stormed to a dizzying 0.5% popularity.
      How about, after at least 3 terms living on govt handouts david Seymour stands by his principles refuses to take anymore?
      He could just resign, but wouldn’t there be more justice if he just let a TOP rep turn up and use his vote.

    • Not so. It’s about people, policy and believability. “Tories” is such a non-Kiwi word, and is used here primarily by rather bitter people. I really hope it never sticks. In many respects, National is anything but Tory.

  2. david in aus

     /  September 24, 2017

    As a National supporter i hope Winston picks Labour. The voters sans Aucklanders/Asians are tiring of National. Nine years is a long time in marriage. One forgets why they got marriaged in the first place, take to good things for granted. Friends (media) will nitpick on the negatives and after a while it gets to you and you want try something new.
    The percentage of votes outside of Auckland has gone down as one will expect in a third term government. It will be the last term for National if they get form a coalition. But with the electorate tiring on them and Winston will alienate National’s Asian voters, it could be a massacre for them in 2020.

    The business cycle is long in tooth and a recession is a certainty in the US in the next three years. When US sneezes…. Labours fiscal hole will come and the rosy forecasts will be mirage. People always extrapolate currrent climates, the most common error.

    If one looks at the long game it is better to lose power for 3 years with Labour hamstrung on policies (no new taxes, huh) then risk a huge loss in 2020 with the Left having free rein.

    • Blazer

       /  September 25, 2017

      you are basically saying that NZ is at the mercy of the U.S economy,and the Govt can do very little about it.This would confirm that Nationals claim of being a safe pair of hands’ is just a meaningless slogan.Your post also implies that with National,power ,not making NZ a better,more prosperous nation is the…priority.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  September 25, 2017

        I read David’s post as saying Labour’s policies leave us at the mercy of the US economy (or the world economy) as they have left no buffer for any downturn in their financial plan.
        And that it is easy to forget all the good things National has done as familiarity breeds contempt.
        A spell in opposition would allow voters to see exactly why they gave National 9 years in the first place.
        If it wasn’t for the list of National policies that I would llke to see bedded in, I would agree. But Social Investment needs another 3 years, and 3 more years of Charter Schools would bed them in to a stage where Hipkins would need to back off.
        National has done a lot of ground work on environmental policy as well that should progress this term.
        All positive stuff, with one big negative – Winston.
        I saw Tracy Martin interviewed on election night. If people like her get near the Government benches lord help us!

      • david in aus

         /  September 25, 2017

        What I am saying, is that government policies matter long term but there will be short-term fluctuations and as a small country we at the mercy of larger economies.
        Countries like Singapore which grew from per capita income of $3000 to over $80000 had recessions interspersing long-term growth. Recessions occur sometimes despite the best ofeconomic management but hopefully they will be milder and with better recoveries with good policies.
        Unfortunately many voters have short memories and cannot see the wood for the trees.

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