Election – governing possibilities

National have a 10% lead over Labour so have the stronger mandate to form a government, and last night Bill English acted and spoke like a winner, but their options are limited.

English said they will work with NZ First to try to form a ‘stable government’ over the next few days. The outcome of course depends on Winston and his party.

Jacinda Ardern looked and sounded defeated last night but she said Labour would have a good look at the results and their options today, and that they would have a few conversations.

Labour did well to bounce back from their 2014 disaster but they didn’t get a strong mandate to lead a new government.

James Shaw claimed that people had voted for a change of government so would be working to try to achieve that with Labour and NZ First.

This depends a lot on NZ First, who may demand Greens stay on the sidelines again as a condition of supporting Labour.

Greens have dropped from 10.7% to about 6% and have less votes than NZ First so don’t have a strong mandate, and their presumed continued refusal to work with National puts them in a weak bargaining position.

David Seymour is at risk of being left on the sideline if Peters refuses to deal with him combined with National. The alternative, a Labour led government, is also the sideline.

Greens could strengthen their hand significantly if they were prepared to negotiate with both National and Labour-NZ First, but unless their membership has a massive change of heart and gets some common sense this looks unlikely.

James Shaw could try to lead his party to negotiate with National, if he wants to put the interests of the country first, but Greens have a habit of cutting off their nose to spite their face.

My personal preference is for National to continue to lead the Government with the best option between NZ First and Greens. This would be the best guarantee of stability, sound economic management would continue but National would be forced to deal better the key issues of housing, poverty, inequality and the environment.

Ardern did well to lift Labour out of oblivion but she and her party came up short. Ardern would benefit from working over the next three years to rebuild Labour with a new injection of talent (current depth of  talent is not strong) ready for a strong bid in 2014.

63 Comments

  1. Blazer

     /  September 24, 2017

    ‘rebuild Labour with a new injection of talent (current depth of talent is not strong) ready for a strong bid in 2020
    …based on what?Wheres the talent in the incumbent Govt?

    • There’s is quite a bit of ability in National. Even Paula Bennett sounded good and sensible last night.

      National have stayed in power for 9 years now, they couldn’t have done that without an ability to govern.

      National and Bill English exceeded expectations in the election. They got about 10% more votes than Labour. Significantly more voters think they are the best party to run government than any other party.

      • Blazer

         /  September 24, 2017

        none of the things you mention =talent imo.Labour’s comeback from the wilderness was the feature of this election.If Bennett is your example of talent ,god help …us if they form another Govt.Strategy won the day…deny,lie and then lie again.Clearly the public don’t mind,if their life is reasonably good’.

        • Corky

           /  September 24, 2017

          Be strong, Blazer. Labour are still in with a chance. I would just say one thing…be careful what you wish for.

          • Blazer

             /  September 24, 2017

            well stability is important.Going to the polls again before 2020 cannot be ruled …out.

      • Gezza

         /  September 24, 2017

        Most of National’s Ministers are competent. The fact that opposition parties say they’re not means nothing. They’re the opposition.

        • Blazer

           /  September 24, 2017

          depends how you define…’competent’…I guess..Ngaro,Wagner,Joyce,Brownlee,Smith,Tolley,Coleman,have all stumbled recently and I am still amazed that the Climate change minister Benett can be considered …competent when she admits ,she knows NOTHING about the…topic.

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  September 24, 2017

            Give me someone who knows what they don’t know rather than someone who thinks they know everything every time. The Left are chock full of the latter.

            • Blazer

               /  September 24, 2017

              yes..get a mechanic who doesn’t know …to fix your car,get a surgeon..who ..doesn’t know -to operate on you…and so on…very good…Al.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  September 24, 2017

              If you knew anything about problem solving you would know that false assumptions are the major obstacle, B. But you don’t.

            • Blazer

               /  September 24, 2017

              @Al,and if you understood exactly what…assumption means ,you would realise it is just opinion,and its veracity is never…guaranteed.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  September 24, 2017

              Banal, irrelevant and wrong.

        • Gezza

           /  September 24, 2017

          I define it the way it is. Their job is to implement the government’s policy for their portfolio area and oversee the Government Department or Agency responsible for delivering & implementing it.

          • Blazer

             /  September 24, 2017

            in other words…anyone could do it!

            • Gezza

               /  September 24, 2017

              Yes. Sometimes they turn out really well. A few turn out to be idiots.
              You can’t tell until you give them the job quite often.
              It’s good Jacinda will have some new blood to pick a caucus from because she’s got a lot of deadshits in there too.

            • Gezza

               /  September 24, 2017

              A lot of policy, beyond the rhetoric, is really just suck it and see, Blazer.
              Sounds good in theory, looks good on paper, takes a while to get designed & implemented, then more time to see if it delivers what was intended. The longer the government stays in office the better the competent Ministers tend to get at their jobs.

  2. Blazer

     /  September 24, 2017

    I expect a Nat/NZF,alliance,and that should be way better than the neo libs and their ‘open economy’ pillaging the assets of this country.

  3. Conspiratoor

     /  September 24, 2017

    Winston may not turn out to be the kingmaker after all

    I’m getting the feeling without Meturia, James is sounding a lot more conciliatory than the greens have been in the past. So don’t be surprised to see a national/green coalition. As I said last night this prospect will put the frighteners up the Feds and Fonterra, but it is entirely plausible

    • Gezza

       /  September 24, 2017

      You could well be right. The problem with Winston is you can never trust him.

      • Blazer

         /  September 24, 2017

        which politicians are really…trustworthy?Not many.

        • Actually just about all politicians are basically trustworthy where it matters. Of course they all get caught out being loose with ‘the truth’ but most of them can be trusted to most of the time to do what they think is best for the country or for whatever portfolio they are working in.

          • Gezza

             /  September 24, 2017

            Yeah that’s true of course I should’ve elaborated a bit more. What I meant is you can’t trust Winston to not get stroppy with you for some reason or to keep his nose out of trouble.

          • Blazer

             /  September 24, 2017

            yes Key was like that,brought back knighthoods and stood by and watched runaway house price inflation.He got knighted and made millions from RE…all…good,for the…country.

    • PDB

       /  September 24, 2017

      “don’t be surprised to see a national/green coalition”

      If the Greens were environmentalists I’d agree but it is a ‘no chance’ due to the fact that their remaining support after the Turei saga is primarily from far-left wing extremists that don’t think Labour is extreme enough.

  4. Zedd

     /  September 24, 2017

    Every one is jumping the gun; until the specials (380k, huge) are counted, they do not know the final numbers. In the past the specials tend to favour the left, esp. Greens. It could even see Natz drop a couple of points ?

    Listening to Winston.. I dont think he really wants to go with Natz, but pragmatically, it will come down to what he is promised from both sides;
    Arise Mr Winston Peters PM ??? 😀

  5. Zedd

     /  September 24, 2017

    Watching bits of the ‘post election shows’.. several of the commentators have tried to put James Shaw on the spot; ‘why not consider a coalition deal with Natz ?’
    I agree with his answer.. ‘why would they ‘sit at the table’ with a party that are diametrically opposed to them on so many issues’; Climate change, pollution targets, clean up rivers, reduce inequality, housing unaffordability, homelessness, cuts in health care etc.

    The maori party are now seeing what their ‘deal with natz’ has done for their future… 😦

    B-S is still B-S it doesn’t matter how you present it.. Natz do not have the same priorities on Environment & Social Justice as the Greens & likely never will. They only care about; money, MONEY & MORE MONEY !!

  6. Zedd

     /  September 24, 2017

    It was interesting to hear a very angry Ms Fox, saying that whilst Lab. won all 7 seats, they (maori party) are closer in understanding/priority on ‘kaupapa maori’ issues with the Greens 🙂 🙂

    • Gezza

       /  September 24, 2017

      She’s always said that. That association witn Metiria may have been a factor in downfall though.

      • Zedd

         /  September 24, 2017

        The maori party association with Natz.. has caused their downfall, even they accept that now !
        Metiria’s issues are only with the Greens; drop in PV 😦

        • Gezza

           /  September 24, 2017

          Possibly. I’m not so sure. Maori Party made it clear they’d work with any party in coalition. Their focus is on Maori. They were never wedded to National.

          • PDB

             /  September 24, 2017

            Maori were more excited about Ardern than the rest of the country, hence why all the Maori seats went back to Labour. There is also this disconnect in Maoridom of how much a National/Maori govt has actually delivered to them so stuck in Labour tradition they are. For those with short memories the Seabed & Foreshore legislation & the Tuhoe raids all happened under the previous Labour govt.

            • PDB

               /  September 24, 2017

              And yes – Gezza openly supporting the Maori party was the final kiss of death for them.

            • Gezza

               /  September 24, 2017

              Not fair PDB. You have lost your mana with me.
              Maori Party would have no idea or care that I voted for them.
              I am not the author of their downfall.

              You didn’t even put in an appearance here last night, buddy.
              So don’t come the raw kumara with me.
              When it came right down to it – you lost your biscuit! 💪🏼 🕶 🖕🏼

          • Zedd

             /  September 24, 2017

            @gezza

            Maori party kept saying that they were ‘at the table with Natz, to get ‘gains’ for their people’ BUT the perception was that they lost more; homelessness, low home ownership, high unemployment, low wages etc. than they ever gained with ‘Whanau ora’

            Also; the maori King (supposedly a-political ?) threw his weight behind the maori party/Natz, but in Hauraki-Waikato electorate, Nanaia Mahuta (Lab) increased her lead over the maori party’s Rahui Papa; proving that sucking up to the wealthy was NOT popular with maori voters. 😦

            • Gezza

               /  September 24, 2017

              The Maori King is not his mum. That’s for sure.
              And Tuku needs to wake his bloody ideas up too.
              Who’s that feckin sleazy Chinese wannabe gangsta they hooked up with.

            • Corky

               /  September 24, 2017

              Lets see what Maori get under Labour, Zedd%. Cuddling up to the ‘Maser’ wont save you from a whipping should it be deemed necessary. Willy Jackson has already been acting ‘uppity.’ That will soon be whipped out of him.

              Trust me, Zedd%, I’m behind you 100% for a Labour coalition government. A more entertaining spectacle I cannot imagine. Pity about the country and the economy though.

            • Zedd

               /  September 24, 2017

              @corkey

              ‘Trust me, Zedd%, I’m behind you 100% for a Labour coalition government. A more entertaining spectacle I cannot imagine. Pity about the country and the economy though.’

              Just a typical narrow minded load of Tory.. nonsense. You forget that Labour has been in power before; last time running 9 straight years of record surpluses.. pull your head out 😦

              btw; the ‘rockstar economy’ the ‘clean green 100% pure IMAGE’ the ‘$11.7bil hole in Lab. figures’ & the ‘Flag ref.’ ARE also Tory… nonsense too

  7. Greens – 20 plus years being pure and implementing basically NOTHING in their manifesto

    Greens – 20 plus years of being Labours poodle. Helen treated them as servant and they just smiled and did as Labour wanted..

    Greens – 20 plus years of pretending the environment is what they care about BUT all the time being far left “property is theft” (well except when its their MP’s rentals) party hiding under a green cloak….

    Shaw could offer confidence and supply in return for pollution and river cleanliness policies and maybe some social policies – extending house insulation schemes, maybe a subsidy for dehumidifiers to dry homes. But he won’t because???? Because is the only answer

    Nose meet Knife, slice….. I have voted Green before but will never vote for them again until they actual push Green issues first not as a smokescreen for hard left social policies…

    This election is a triumph for two elements.

    1 – Bill English again a mid forties result for a government looking for a 4th term. Redemption for that humiliation all those years ago.

    2 – Labours backroom. They rolled Little at exactly the right time. They put up a happy face to drew back the soft centre floating vote, they enforced discipline brutually during the campaign, they craft and delivered an almost perfect media campaign….

    BUT most importantly they crushed the Greens and unshackled themselves from the the MOU before the Greens could eat their lunch – which looked highly likely when Andrew Little was running the show.

    They fell short on one thing and one thing only: TAX Policy. They had JA say didn’t have time to craft a CGT policy – and the electorate saw right through that ploy as they knew Labour had a CGT policy 2011 and 2014 PLUS they had David Parker the architect of the policy and Deb Russell a tax specialist in their camp to pull such a policy together in time for the campaign….

    Winston now needs to make a choice. He will take his time no doubt just like he did all those years ago before cozying up Bolger….

  8. Blazer

     /  September 24, 2017

    Crosby won the day for National…again.

  9. PDB

     /  September 24, 2017

    If I was a betting man……………Winston will sit on the cross benches propping up a Labour-Greens govt – the reasons for me are clear;

    *Winston has been shafted three elections in a row by National – Utu.
    *Winston blames National for his ‘superannuation leak’ during the campaign and resulting drop in support – Utu.
    *NZL First is ultimately for a change of govt this election.
    *NZL First policies have more in common with Labour including slashing immigration, hiking the minimum wage and protectionism.
    *Winston has much bad blood with many current high-ranking National party members.
    *The more fractured left-wing govt is more to Winston’s liking compared to answering to a govt where National make up a huge component of the total seats.

    He’ll dictate policy from the cross-benches ensuring everything Labour/Greens wants to pass in the house gets his seal of approval, whilst also being able to distance himself from the fallout if a Labour/Greens govt goes pear-shaped or the economy slumps.

    Whoever goes into govt with Winston is doomed to 2-3 terms in opposition from 2020 onwards. Long-term National are in trouble if they can’t find a viable ‘centralist’ small party to get them over the line in future elections.

  10. Blazer

     /  September 24, 2017

    60/40 he goes with National..imo.

    • PDB

       /  September 24, 2017

      Some of your better analysis there Blazer.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  September 24, 2017

      Have to agree.

    • PDB

       /  September 24, 2017

      “An outgoing New Zealand First MP has slammed Winston Peters in an extraordinary interview – saying Peters’ behaviour is increasingly erratic and he will form a coalition with Labour if at all possible.”

      “Meanwhile Prosser told the Herald that whoever negotiated with Peters in the coming days and weeks may need to deal with what Prosser called examples of erratic behaviour.

      “He has always been Machiavellian, I guess, and a bit mercurial. And sort of says things in a way that leaves wriggle room. This goes beyond that. These are things when you just think, what on earth is happening?”

      Prosser gave examples of recent behaviour including Peters interview with Radio NZ host Guyon Espiner, which he labelled “bizarre”.”

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11925846

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  September 24, 2017

        Maybe there will be a new crop of waka jumpers?

      • Blazer

         /  September 24, 2017

        sour grapes from …Tosser..shunted down and…out.

        • PDB

           /  September 24, 2017

          Easy to attack the messenger but that RNZ interview with Winston was alarming as to his mental state.

          • Conspiratoor

             /  September 24, 2017

            Easy to point the bone at someone you don’t like and write them off as a mental case. I’d hazard a guess he’d take you to the cleaners with less than half his synapses firing

            • Gezza

               /  September 24, 2017

              being cunning as a Maori dog doesn’t make him brilliant, bro.

            • PDB

               /  September 24, 2017

              Winston is going ga ga – perfect fit for a Labour-Green govt then…

        • Gezza

           /  September 24, 2017

          Poor Prosser. He believed the dog whistling.

          • Gezza

             /  September 24, 2017

            Winston’s hide’s thicker than a rhino’s. He’ ll go with the Nats.

            • Fight4NZ

               /  September 24, 2017

              I am inclined to agree Winston will go with Natz. But if he, as you might expect, stands firm on immigration limits, being possibly his top priority, where does that leave Bill and co.? They dont have an economic plan without that.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  September 24, 2017

              “They dont have an economic plan without immigration”. Ain’t that the truth

            • Gezza

               /  September 24, 2017

              Skills training’s non-existent, that’s what I’m hearing.
              Say what you like about Marama but they were onto that.
              They want their tamariki training in trades, professions.
              They wanted skilled immigration linked to training their kidz.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  September 24, 2017

              They wanted lots of stuff G ..they had no idea how to make it happen

          • Gezza

             /  September 24, 2017

            I gave you a bloody uptick for engaging. Where’s mine?
            Show some fkn buscuit dude!

            They know that! She said that! In a debate, They haven’t got the resources to do a fkn economic plan. And what show have they got with fkn Tuku as prez?

      • Fight4NZ

         /  September 24, 2017

        Saw Prosser on Back Benchers a few weeks ago. Given his last word minute he launched into a tirade to say feral cats are now part of the nz ecology so should be left alone.
        Who’s not quite playing with a full deck?

  11. Gezza

     /  September 24, 2017

    I dunno if this actually tells us anything – but I did say I’d check, a few days ago, & I like to keep my word.

    That’s we roll.
    In this whare.

    • Gezza

       /  September 24, 2017

      Sometimes we forget to put the how in before the we, though.
      In this whare.

  12. PDB

     /  September 24, 2017

    One big winner last night with Winston being ‘kingmaker’ is the rural community, regardless of who he goes with.