Election – provisional results

The 2017 election night provisional results (which excludes hundreds of thousands of special votes):

PROJECTED
Party Votes % of Votes Electorate Seats List Seats Total seats
National Party 998,813 46.0 41 17 58
Labour Party 776,556 35.8 29 16 45
New Zealand First Party 162,988 7.5 9 9
Green Party 126,995 5.9 7 7
ACT New Zealand 10,959 0.5 1 1
The Opportunities Party (TOP) 48,018 2.2
Māori Party 23,456 1.1
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 5,853 0.3
Conservative 5,318 0.2
MANA 2,775 0.1
Ban1080 2,440 0.1
New Zealand People’s Party 1,631 0.1
United Future 1,471 0.1
NZ Outdoors Party 1,333 0.1
Democrats for Social Credit 732 0.0
Internet Party 464 0.0
Total 2,169,802 71 49 120

‘Special votes’ also include those cast from outside an electorate, people who enrolled after writ day (August 23), those on the unpublished roll and those who cast special votes because of a complication that meant accessing a polling booth would cause hardship.

There were 303,000 special votes in 2012, I don’t have that number yet for this election.

This is the first time since 2002 that there are just 120 seats.


National 46.0% – this is a very good result for them for a fourth term government, but they are short of an easy majority due to a lack of support parties. It is a very good result for Bill English – If John Key hadn’t stepped down he would have struggled to do as well.

Labour 35.8% – 2 months ago they would have loved a result like this, 2 weeks ago they looked like they could do much better. Jacinda Ardern was disappointed they didn’t do better and looked like she lost last night. They could still form a government, and if not are at least on the road to recovery after a very poor 2014 election.

NZ First 7.5% – Winston Peters will be disappointed to have dropped 1.3% from their 2014 provisional vote. He claimed the polls were wrong but it turns out he was wrong. Still, it seems likely NZ First could decide who will lead the next government and are in a strong negotiating position, albeit with a smaller mandate.

Greens 5.9% – 2 months ago they would have seen a result like this as a disaster, they were aiming for three times as much, but beating the threshold is now seem as a major victory. James Shaw has done very well to lift them out of the Metiria mess, but it is still a poor mandate compared to their 2014 result. This is their worst result since they got 5.3% in 2005 (and were kept out of government by Winston Peters).

TOP 2.2% – an ok result for a new party but still well short of success, so it’s a failure for them.

Maori 1.1% –  down on their 1.32% in 2014, and out due to Te Ururoa Flavell losing his electorate. A disaster for the party, and if Labour don’t form the next government a poor result for Maori voters.

ACT Party 0.5% – down on their 0.69% in 2014 so failure as a party. David Seymour keeps them in Parliament through winning Epsom, but ACT have to get their act together, somehow.

United Future 0.1% – they were always going to struggle without Peter Dunne and they did struggle. Must now be history.

Conservative Party (0.2%), MANA (0.1%) and Internet Party (just 464 votes) – all dismal results.

Cannabis Party, Ban1080 Party, NZ People’s Party and NZ Outdoors Party were ‘up’ amongst the minnows but were ignored by media and largely ignored by voters.

Source: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/


Comparing to last election – note that it is expected there could be similar movements in party support between provisional and final results, but there is no guarantee similar patterns will occur this year.

Table 2: 2014 Final Party Vote and Seat Count

Party Valid Party Votes
Provisional Total (1) Final Total Provisional Share (%) Final Share (%)
National Party 1,010,464 1,131,501 48.06 47.04
Labour Party 519,146 604,535 24.69 25.13
Green Party 210,764 257,359 10.02 10.7
New Zealand First 186,031 208,300 8.85 8.66
Māori Party 27,074 31,849 1.29 1.32
ACT New Zealand 14,510 16,689 0.69 0.69
United Future 4,533 5,286 0.22 0.22
Conservative 86,616 95,598 4.12 3.97
Internet-MANA 26,539 34,094 1.26 1.42
Other (2) 16,994 20,411 0.8 0.84
Total Valid Party Votes 2,102,671 2,405,622 100% 100%
Informal / Disallowed Votes (3) 9,851 40,675
TOTALS 2,112,522 2,446,297
  1. Provisional figures are as at election night on the 20th September; final figures as at 10 October, 2014. The preliminary results (announced on election night) include all ordinary votes – those cast by people who appear on the printed roll in the voting place they go to, and that are cast either on Election Day or in advance of Election Day. Provisional figures exclude the 329,726 special votes cast by voters who are overseas, or who are voting outside their electorate, or who are not on the printed roll for their electorate. Valid special votes are admitted to the final official count.
  2. Final party vote share for parties in the ‘Other’ category include: Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party (0.46%); Ban1080 (0.21%); Democrats for Social Credit (0.07%); The Civilian Party (0.05%); NZ Independent Coalition (0.04%); Focus New Zealand (0.03%).
  3. Informal Votes are votes cast by electors, qualified to vote, which are not counted because the ballot paper did not clearly indicate the party or the electorate candidate vote, or both. ‘Disallowed votes‘ are votes disallowed for one of the following reasons: no ground stated for a special vote, arrived late, declaration not enclosed, incomplete declaration, ballot paper not enclosed, or address invalid for electorate.

Source: Electoral Commission: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/


UPDATE: The Electoral Commission estimates about 384,000, or 15 percent, of votes are special declaration votes and are still to be counted.

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6 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  September 24, 2017

    Nice summary PG

    Reply
  2. Gezza

     /  September 24, 2017

    ACT Party 0.5% – down on their 0.69% in 2014 so failure as a party. David Seymour keeps them in Parliament through winning Epsom, but ACT have to get their act together, somehow.
    ………………….

    There’s a fine line between clowning around and being a buffoon. David’s been crossing it, imo.

    Reply
    • Conspiratoor

       /  September 24, 2017

      Agreed G. Seymour is pro-immigration. The dominant ethnic group in Epsom is asian. Connect the dots…

      Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  September 24, 2017

        Patus just called G. I had to talk him down. He’s got a dollar looking for a charity

        Reply
  3. Blazer

     /  September 24, 2017

    if Winston keeps to his put NZ first ideals,even a co alition with National may rein in their fervour of asset and land sales,and reconfigure immigration.

    Reply
    • Conspiratoor

       /  September 24, 2017

      He has said there are no bottom lines but we live in hope blazer. The baubles are being polished as we speak

      Reply

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