Election final result possibilities

While we wait for the final election results (due on Saturday) there has been a lot of number crunching going on to try to predict whether there will be any changes to the number of seats in Parliament for any party.

It should be noted that this election was quite different to past elections – polls were quite variable and there were late swings in support, and there is a much significantly number of special votes to be added to the provisional result, about 380,000.

Cut Your Hair looks at Realistic possibilities for Parliament post-specials (all two of them)

On the basis of past election results since 1999, there are only two likely scenarios for how the preliminary seat allocations in Parliament will change after special votes are counted:

  1. Golriz Ghahraman (Green) is in. Nicola Willis (National) is out.
    • This is what will happen if the special vote results are like what they’ve been most MMP elections in NZ.
    • On this scenario, A Nat-NZF government would have 66/120 seats. A Lab-NZF-Green government would have 62/120.
  2. Golriz Ghahraman (Green) and Angie Warren-Clark (Labour) are in. Nicola Willis and Maureen Pugh (both National) are out.
    • This is what will happen if the special votes are like what they were like last election.
    • On this scenario, a Nat-NZF government would have 65/120 seats. A Lab-NZF-Green government would have 63/120.

A lot of numbers are given supporting this, analysing the shift in support from special votes in all the elections from 1999 to 2014.

A number of less likely (most very unlikely) scenarios are detailed.

But we have to wait until Saturday to find out how the votes actually add up.

 

 

 

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9 Comments

  1. Ms Ghahraman has been active on Twitter throughout the election campaign. She is an ardent supporter of Metiria Turei, and is very much in the activist/anarchist mode of others in the Green caucus.

    She seems to have an opinion on most things, but interestingly has not responded to requests for her to justify how she, if elected, and Winston Peters/NZF could possibly co-exist in government, given how fundamental some of their policy differences are.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  5th October 2017

      ‘anarchist’…don’t you know what this word …means?

      Reply
      • Metiria Turei is historically anarchist. Not sure if she still considers herself one. But sometimes anarchists are willing to compromise with statism by running for office – just like sometimes socialists are willing to compromise with capitalism by running or working for capitalist businesses.

        Reply
        • duperez

           /  5th October 2017

          Is there a list of those “historically anarchist” in the upcoming Parliament?

          Reply
        • David

           /  5th October 2017

          “Metiria Turei is historically anarchist.”

          There is something deeply amusing about an anarchist being an MP.

          Reply
    • phantom snowflake

       /  5th October 2017

      There’s no evidence that Golriz Ghahraman is an anarchist. I believe that constitutes making shit up. For the record I really wish she was; at long last I would have some effing representation!

      Reply
  2. Zedd

     /  5th October 2017

    Regardless of the final count.. the whispers are that Winston/NZF have already decided & its not good for one side OR the other ! 😀

    BUT; yes historically the ‘specials’ do tend to favour we on ‘the loony left’ 🙂

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  5th October 2017

      Whispers schmispers Zedd. This opera will not be over until the thin lady sings.

      Reply
  1. Election final result possibilities — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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