Open Forum – Wednesday

1 November 2017

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129 Comments

  1. David

     /  November 1, 2017

    Jon Johanssen appointed chief of staff for Winston…stop watch is set. Personally I have found him a dripping wet academic watching his commentary on Q and A and clearly a severe left lean there. Joining quite a conservative party seems an odd place for him and being a cloistered academic may not be quite the background to wield the stick and stand tough advocating for a policy position when your own philosophy more match,s the other sides.

  2. I’m not convinced that NZF belongs on the right. This is from TVNZ VoteCompass

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  November 1, 2017

      ACT is not socially conservative. The chart is crap.

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  November 1, 2017

        The labels give it away anyway as a Lefty drivel product. The correct axes are social and economic freedom.

        • Patzcuaro

           /  November 1, 2017

          The lefty drivel illustrates how lonely it is out on the rabid right.

      • Damn, you’re correct. Really, it just highlights the difficulty of trying to put people/parties in a box. I had the same trouble when I came to vote. And even then, most of them were happy as to vary their social or economic stance in order to gain “power”. Who really stood up for their beliefs? Core values? Bah, humbug.

      • Patzcuaro

         /  November 1, 2017

        Prior to Seymour it’s last MP was the social conservative Banks , an anti abortionist until he got his girlfriend pregnant.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  November 1, 2017

          Yes, Banks was never a fit for ACT’s core principles. Just a political liability masquerading as expediency.

          • Blazer

             /  November 1, 2017

            I love the way the right ,discard their former heroes so easily.

            • Gezza

               /  November 1, 2017

              True. The Left still has the greatest love for Dicky Prebble.

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              I hope thats not sarcasm..Gezza… ; )

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              I don’t consider myself “right” and Banks was never ever my hero, B. In fact I hold a long time grudge against him for blocking what would have been a successful fight against local government amalgamation when unfortunately he was made Minister of Local Government under Bolger. I have little time for him.

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              try again : p

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              doing it wrong… 😉

            • Gezza

               /  November 1, 2017

              I hope thats not sarcasm..Gezza… ; )

              Good heavens! No! No no no no!
              I only ever do irony! 😎

            • Patzcuaro

               /  November 1, 2017

              @Alan I new you were a closet leftie, when I saw you on TV it looked like you had just come from a Labour Party rally. Welcome comrade.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              Thanks Patz, but no thanks. Local body amalgamation never had any economic rationalisation as we have seen again in spades with Auckland Super City. The direct result was runaway rates and local government debt together with a loss of participatory democracy. The likes of Michael Bassett and John Banks are directly responsible.

    • Gezza

       /  November 1, 2017

      NZF would properly be all over the place in that chart anyway.

      It’s Muldoonist & Trumpist, essentially, imo. It’s got a bit of everything for everybody – from those with dementia to those any axe to grind that Winston could exploit for a vote.

      Low IQ probably their voters’ principal defining characteristic? (Except for The Joneser, of course?) o_O

      Other opinions welcome, but largely discounted in advance – in this whare.

  3. lurcher1948

     /  November 1, 2017

    Mike Hoskings relentless negativity on squarktalkZB makes me feel I’m in a happier space than he is.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  November 1, 2017

      What is he going to be like after 3 years of relentless negativity. I do wonder if some of the hosts on ZB believe what they are saying or are they just being outrages for the ratings and the money which follows.

      • barryglik

         /  November 1, 2017

        It is the money, not for them necessarily but for the network. Right wing views pay way more than left wing views that’s why commercial radio talk has always been right wing talk going back to 1980 which is why I switched off by 1985. Same with TV 6 o’clock news always reflecting majority right wing prejudice another reason I switched of these past 36 year. Balance in the media is simply not financially viable. Simples. National Radio/ Radio NZ is an exception even the Listener magazine until 1990 was balanced but even it succumbed to right wing financial pressure. Listened to national radio morning report from its inception in ’75 with Joe Cote up until mid 80’s but the weight of bias in all other media combined to make me give up on seeking balanced media post ’85. I only just recently returned to media but only online.

        • PDB

           /  November 1, 2017

          You must be looking for some pretty far, far left wing views as aside from the main players on ZB and the odd token opinion newspaper columnist the NZ MSM is definitely to the left of centre.

        • Trevors_elbow

           /  November 1, 2017

          Alison Mau…. Willie Jackson…. …..screeeeeammming righties for sure….. /sarc..

    • High Flying Duck

       /  November 1, 2017

      Hosking has always been relentlessly positive Lurch. You obviously don’t listen.
      He has expressed doubts about the new crew, which are already softening, but his positive slant on the state of the nation remains.

  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  November 1, 2017

    So the dollar and business confidence are down, petrol prices are up and going further. Welcome to our brave new socialist paradise.

    • Blazer

       /  November 1, 2017

      $ down…=great for exporters…Key I’d like the dollar at around 66c…English…we are a trading nation’.

    • Gezza

       /  November 1, 2017

      Thanks Al. 😕
      You make it sound so great !! 😦

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  November 1, 2017

        Yes, the dollar is down 7% so petrol will rise much further than the 5 cents it has already moved. Then everything will go up because of transport costs and imports will rise on top of that. Quite a bit of inflation coming even before the RB starts printing money to pay for Labour’s spending under its new mandate for full employment.

        • Gezza

           /  November 1, 2017

          You’re being very negative for this time of the day, Sir Alan ?
          Is it raining in Northland ? o_O

          Another stunner morning in North Welly. Things are looking wonderful on the estate.

          Birds fed. Trouble with Bluey. Chased young Charlie off. Emergency takeoff required there. Poor Pooky may be copping it in the neck from young Prettygirl for Bluey’s sins.
          Arranging an eye test for her. Possible myopia.

          On this dollar thing, might turn out all right in the end. Early days. New Queen, They all learn a thing or two as they get into it. Look at Sir MIchael, Sir Alan. Great friend of the Business Community!

          Sir Gerald. 😎

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  November 1, 2017

            When the business community has political friends it is always time for concern, Sir Gerald.

        • Blazer

           /  November 1, 2017

          And ,not forgetting our Biggest earner..tourism..the lower dollar will give that a boost for the domestic economy,and along with exports growing,brighter future for the many..here we come.Get on board.

          • High Flying Duck

             /  November 1, 2017

            “Rodney Dickens sees a risk that a cut to permanent migration will weigh on the tourism sector as visitors shy away from New Zealand – for reasons that are by no means clear”

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              I can clear it up for you and him.Migrants friends and extended families come on holiday to visit them.Don’t mention…it!

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              One of the reasons is immigration department paranoia and bureaucracy which has resulted in tens if not hundreds of thousands of visitor visas being declined. As word spreads of the hoops that have to be jumped through just to visit, tourism must inevitably be hurt.

              I have friends who had a young visitor friend from Argentina turned back at the border and sent home. They were absolutely furious and shamed for our country. And that is happening to thousands of people every year. Thanks Winston.

        • Patzcuaro

           /  November 1, 2017

          @Alan the export sector is going to be happy.

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  November 1, 2017

            Why? Everything they buy will be dearer including their transport costs. They will be richer only in inflated dollars.

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              ‘They will be richer only in inflated dollars’….as opposed to?..being richer in inflated property prices!..more $$$$ offsets other costs.Stick to ornithology,and leave economics alone..you are clueless.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  November 1, 2017

              Have you ever heard farmers or exporters complaining about a low dollar? If you have a viable business the increased revenue from the lower dollar should be outpacing any increase in costs.

              It is only early days for the government I’d be a rich man if I new where the dollar will end up.

              The $NZ bottomed at about 50c in early 2009, rose to about 86c in early 2011, ranged from 75-85c from 2011 to mid 2014 when it dropped to 64c and has ranged from 65-75 since then. At 68c it is still within that range.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              How happy were the Zimbabwe farmers under Mugabe? A lot of exporters whinge about a high dollar but what they are really complaining about is their input inefficiencies. Get those under control and the exchange rate is not a concern. A sinking dollar is.

              At 68c down from 73c in a month it is only headed one way, Patz. When Labour changes the RB Act and opens the spending gates there can only be one result and it won’t be pretty.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  November 1, 2017

              Comparing our situation to that in either Zimbabwe or Venezuela is ludicrous.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              The simple point is that inflation and falling currency together does not help exporters. A falling currency without inflation does give a temporary benefit.

        • David

           /  November 1, 2017

          Boom times for landlords and boy are we excited about Labour, trouble with National is they run the economy so well and are such good stewards of our hard earned taxes we get no inflation and its hard to get a rent increase. We got a little out of rising after tax wages but if we could get some inflation going it would be great.

          • Blazer

             /  November 1, 2017

            Landlords are bludgers.They rely on billions of subsidies from the Govt.A real market would be rid of the parasites.Rents have been tracking up to the stratosphere.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              “Rents have been tracking up to the stratosphere.” Funny that, with all those foreign investors needing tenants.

              The Left are so thick it is almost unbelievable.

        • Blazer

           /  November 1, 2017

          making things up now…’Yes, the dollar is down 7% ‘..typical.

          • High Flying Duck

             /  November 1, 2017

            the NZ$$ was at 73.528c (against the US$) at 20 Sept. It is now at 68.42. That is almost exactly 7% down.

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              ‘almost exactly’….funny as a ..play!

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 1, 2017

              And yet correct. it is down 6.95%
              Using averages as you do below is spurious. I took closing rate 20 September and closing rate 31 October.

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              exactly is a definitive term..FYI.Nothing spurious about the 3 month average,unless its just because it does not suit your spurious argument.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  November 1, 2017

              @ HFD see my above post the dollar is range trading at the moment between 65 and 75 cents. At present I’d say the market is factoring the uncertainty surrounding the new government. Let’s revisit the matter in 6 months once things have settled down and we have something concrete to look at.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  November 1, 2017

              Anyway we should probably ask the master trader where it is going, he exited the prime ministership at the peak of the market, now we are just waiting to see if he has done the same in the real estate market.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 1, 2017

              Patz – I wasn’t making any position on the why of the drop – just pointing out Alan’s comment was correct despite Blazer’s obfuscation.
              I think the dollar will settle at a lower rate than it has been. How much lower I wouldn’t hazard a guess at.
              And the PM sold his house because the kids were gone – he wouldn’t have been comfortable selling as sitting PM. He has kept some land and is building. Hardly “exiting” the market.

        • Ideologues never understand these things Alan

          • Blazer

             /  November 1, 2017

            I guess you could call John Key,Bill English and Stephen Joyce..ideologues.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 1, 2017

              Pragmatists. They never let ideology get in the way of good policy.

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              pragmatists…’run with the hares and chase with the hounds’.and of course..’if you don’t like my principles…I have ..others..’

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              Your principles are as elliptical as your commentary, B.

          • Conspiratoor

             /  November 1, 2017

            trav, you’re a smart woman. Surely you can see the irony in that one

        • Blazer

           /  November 1, 2017

          the period of historic lows for the NZ DOLLAR was in the years National governed up until 2000.Labour inherited a basket case ,where the dollar had dived to under…40c!!!Stick that in your smouldering pipes,and inhale..deeply.

          • PDB

             /  November 1, 2017

            Nice try – NZL$ bottomed out under Labour in 2000-2002…

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              I said -Labour inherited a basket case .The dollar slid dramatically with National at the helm.It took Labour around 18mths to 2 years to get it tracking upwards ..again.P.S the world kept turning.

            • PDB

               /  November 1, 2017

              You began by saying (and I quote): “the period of historic lows for the NZ DOLLAR was in the years National governed up until 2000”

              The historic lows occurred one year after Labour won the election and lasted for around a further year and a half.

              In comparison the NZ$ dramatically climbed straight away when National took over from Labour in very late 2008/ early 2009 after the dollar had slumped at the end of their tenure.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  November 1, 2017

              It is very easy to take a point on the chart to backup your point of view.

              For instance you could say it took Labour 3 years to sort out the financial mess left behind by National during which time the dollar fell to a low of 39c. Once Labour was re-elected in 2002 and the dollar climbed until 2008 based on their strong management of the economy.

              In 2008 the markets became nervous at the prospect of another National government and fell from a high under Labour of just over 80c to a low of 49c. When the markets realised the National government needed coalition partners who would smooth their rough edges the dollar bounced back climbing to a high of 89c.

              etc

            • PDB

               /  November 1, 2017

              “you could say it took Labour 3 years to sort out the financial mess left behind by National during which time the dollar fell to a low of 39c.”

              What financial mess? The National govt inherited a right old mess from the 1980’s Labour mob but by 1999 had the country back on track with increasing surpluses and greatly paid down International debt.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  November 1, 2017

              @PDB the narrative is something I made up to illustrate that data can be manipulated to support your version of events if you selectively start from a point favourable to your view point.

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  November 1, 2017

            Wasn’t that the last time Winston was Treasurer, B?

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              No,Shipley dumped him-she wanted to sell Wellington Airport to foreigners.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              Winston was ditched in August 98. Labour took over in 99. Your chart hits rock bottom two years later forcing Clark/Cullen to moderate their loony Left policies in favour of pragmatism. I rest my case.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              I’ll grant you though that the evidence shows Jim Anderton was a worse Minister of Economic Development than Winston was a Treasurer. But not by much.

  5. barryglik

     /  November 1, 2017

    @Blazer “making things up” …To be fair all political parties media outlets and people too have an automatic switch. When their team is in power the country is doing brilliantly on all fronts. Soon as their out of power the country is in complete meltdown in all areas. Silly I know but “There’s nowt so queer as folk, except for me and thee”.

  6. Blazer

     /  November 1, 2017

    election time
    23/08/2017 0.720469
    24/08/2017 0.721012
    25/08/2017 0.724061
    26/08/2017 0.724061
    now,with 3 monthly ave-31/10/2017 0.683571
    Average 0.719662

    • Gezza

       /  November 1, 2017

      Ya holdin up well against the tide of negativity so far, Blazer 👍🏼

      • High Flying Duck

         /  November 1, 2017

        Other than being wrong he’s doing OK.

        • PDB

           /  November 1, 2017

          Good to see he is keeping up his consistency under the new govt.

        • Blazer

           /  November 1, 2017

          re Key..why was he comfortable’..buying as P.M..then!Bol.

        • Blazer

           /  November 1, 2017

          Latest…Stuff-‘The New Zealand dollar jumped on Wednesday as Statistics New Zealand figures painted a rosy picture of the jobs market.

          Unemployment dropped to 4.6 per cent in the September quarter, the lowest level since the end of 2008, as the economy added more than 50,000 new jobs in three months.

          The figures were significantly stronger than the market was expecting, and the kiwi jumped on the news. By midday the New Zealand was trading around US0.5c higher than before the release, above US69c for the first time in more than a week.’

          • PDB

             /  November 1, 2017

            Well that was thanks to the National led govt, not the Labour led one.

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              so the earlier conclusions about the dollar were erroneous then..other factors are more important than Govt as stated by Sharon Zollner ANZ economist.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              Only when you can name the other factors.

      • Blazer

         /  November 1, 2017

        like shooting fish in ..a barrel.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  November 1, 2017

          Except that you are the fish and your barrel is now full of holes.

    • High Flying Duck

       /  November 1, 2017

      Countering an objective comment on the dollar dropping a certain percentage over a period of time by using averages is pathetic. But definitely up to your usual standards.

      • Blazer

         /  November 1, 2017

        why do people use averages?Look at PDB’s chart.

        • High Flying Duck

           /  November 1, 2017

          I can see why you use averages – it is about the best you can aspire to, but still you fall so agonisingly short.
          Averages over time are a good measure, except when you are talking about a specific fall over a specific period.

          • Blazer

             /  November 1, 2017

            [Deleted. PG]

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 1, 2017

              You can lead a horse to water…but you can’t stop him being a prick. I’m ending this discussion.

      • Gezza

         /  November 1, 2017

        He’s still swingin H. 👊🏼
        👍🏼

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  November 1, 2017

          In the wind, Sir Gerald.

          • Gezza

             /  November 1, 2017

            Garn. Ya all too negative. It’s early days. The New Queen might charm everyone & overseas & it’ll all be great in the end. Happiness may reign? Maybe?
            I’m stickin up for the little guy today!
            [Deleted. PG] I’ve been outside wildlfe rangering…

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 1, 2017

              Jacinda has to be given credit. The Govt. are enacting policy all over the place while they will be given a free pass and so far it’s going well.
              I’m sure she will go very well at APEC and will sign TPP keeping business onside and not unduly upsetting anyone but the rabid leftists.
              Some water needs to flow under the bridge before any judgement is made.
              She gets a solid pass so far though, even if it is not policy to my liking.

            • Gezza

               /  November 1, 2017

              👍🏼
              Ya gave it a decent run, PG.
              No complaints here, boss.
              I’m not one to complain, as you know.

            • Gezza

               /  November 1, 2017

              Yup. That’s where I’m at too HFD.

          • Blazer

             /  November 1, 2017

            In this light we continue to look for strength in the AUD and NZD,” it says. “At the same time we have revised our forecasts for the JPY and EUR lower.”

            The bank’s updated currency forecasts are found below
            won’t paste..anyway 73c through to June 2018.’..ANZ forecasts..Business Insider.Sorry about that..Al.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              Probably why they’ve recruited a currency trader as Chairman, B. They need more expertise on Board.

  7. robertguyton

     /  November 1, 2017

    I/S at NoRightTurn has summed-up National’s record on employment/unemployement just right!
    “The labour market statistics are out, and with the change of government, we can finally see National’s final score. Unemployment is now at 4.6%, exactly where it was when they came into power. But nine years of population growth means that there are 21,000 more unemployed people. So much for making New Zealand a better place. Instead, they did nothing and let people rot for nine years, inflicting tremendous suffering, and then only ended up back where they started by pure luck. Its a perfect example of how National’s “better economic management” actively harms people while achieving nothing.”

    • High Flying Duck

       /  November 1, 2017

      Another way of looking at that is that there are now over 450,000 more jobs in the economy and we have been able to retain low unemployment in the face of a GFC that saw record unemployment in other countries, particularly those with socialist governments.

      • robertguyton

         /  November 1, 2017

        Yeah, that’s another way – or, you could accept reality 🙂

        • High Flying Duck

           /  November 1, 2017

          My comment was reality.
          You can disagree, but you will struggle to find anywhere that kept unemployment lower or created more jobs per capita.

          Here’s Europe unemployment:
          Find more statistics at Statista

      • Blazer

         /  November 1, 2017

        What were the countries with Socialist govts most affected?Greece had eyewatering unemployment but was not under a Socialist regime.SA a Capitalist country had huge unemployment even before the GFC.Austerity is usually imposed by Right wing administrations.

        • High Flying Duck

           /  November 1, 2017

          Portugal, Netherlands, Finland, Canada, Sweden….

          • Blazer

             /  November 1, 2017

            Canada under Harper for 10 years was a Socialist regime!!Pull the other leg it plays Beethovens 5th.

  8. Socialism is where people line up waiting for their bread
    capitalism is where bread is lined up waiting for people

    • Blazer

       /  November 1, 2017

      Socialism is where people make the bread and share it around.
      Capitalism is where people try to buy up all the bread ,create a shortage and..resell it.

      • 1 word. Venuzuela

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  November 1, 2017

        You’ve got that wrong, B. Socialism is where capitalists make the bread for each other and politicians take their money and give it to beneficiaries who buy Coke and chips instead of bread.

  9. Blazer, patz, barry, Robert do me a favour and do this for me will you?

    • Blazer

       /  November 1, 2017

      can you first find a free market with a small govt?Thx.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  November 1, 2017

        Hong Kong

        • Excellent vid of Maggie Thatcher. See her SOH at 3.00

          “The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.” Winston the actual heroic one

          • Blazer

             /  November 1, 2017

            Churchills wit was great,his politics questionable.Born to rule cloth and relied on patronage from wealthy supporters.As for Thatcher,she along with Reagan in the U.S and Douglas here,embraced neo liberal globalism,which lead to huge inequalities,war and eventually the GFC and rampant property inflation in the West.

        • Blazer

           /  November 1, 2017

          That is a reasonable answer,apart from the fact it is part of Communist China.

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  November 1, 2017

            Which is why a lot of Chinese people are now in NZ, including a lovely young couple which run the family hotel we stay at in Auckland as well as our new neighbour on the farm next to our property – a most gracious elderly gentleman who speaks impeccable Oxford English.

            • Blazer

               /  November 1, 2017

              must be good sorts if they can speak impeccable Oxford English..wot..do they live in a nice…hice?

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 1, 2017

              You can be fairly sure they are not going to mug you, B.

  10. He may or may not be under the spell of Labour and their unfathomable terror of anything vaguely Chinese, blaming them for anything and everything wrong in this sub 5% unemployment paradise we live in.