Q+A – new poll plus Colmar Brunton interview

Q+A this morning will have the first Colmar brunton polls results since the election, plus an interview on Colmar’ Brunton’s changed methodology (which may make poll comparisons difficult):

We’ll have the results of our Colmar Brunton political poll – which political party will get an early Christmas present?

Jessica Mutch will also interview Jason Shoebridge – the CEO of Kantar Insights, the parent company of Colmar Brunton. He’ll talk about why Colmar Brunton has changed its methodology for its TVNZ political polling.

Colmar Brunton are now polling 50% mobile phones.

The poll with have some curiosity value.

  • National 46% (election 44.4%)
  • Labour 39% (election 36.9%)
  • NZ First 5% (election 7.2%)
  • Greens 7% (election 6.3%)
  • TOP 1% (election 2.4%)
  • Maori Party 1% (election 1.2%)
  • ACT NR (election 0.5%)

So an unusual situation where the leading party in Government remains the second most popular party by a clear margin.

NZ First should be concerned to see their support slipping.

They are rounded to the nearest % (more detailed results are usually published a few days later), hence no result for ACT here.

Is New Zealand heading in the right direction?

  • Right direction 51%
  • Wrong direction 26%
  • Don’t know 27%

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 37%
  • Bill English 28%
  • Winston Peters 5%

Not surprising to see Ardern ahead there. She was already doing well, and has been getting more media coverage.

67 Comments

  1. David

     /  December 10, 2017

    Thats pretty ugly for Ardern with such a small bounce. NZ First has held up better than I thought but perhaps 5% is their core vote regardless.
    English should be pleased with his support.

    • Patzcuaro

       /  December 10, 2017

      No friends National 46 plus 0 = 46 not enough to form a government. ACT didn’t trouble the scorers.

  2. PDB

     /  December 10, 2017

    The only really good news for the new govt is Ardern leaping up the preferred PM stakes as expected – English but a place holder for the next year and a bit.

    Otherwise the ‘bump’ every govt gets hasn’t happened and for most new govts this is as good as it gets in terms of popularity – Winston as expected taking a hit due to broken promises and going with Labour.

    The ‘heading in the right direction’ is meaningless considering they have yet to virtually do anything and are at present running the govt exactly as National was. The economy was handed over in great shape and we have yet to see how the Labour-led govt will affect this.

    National is still without viable support partners which would be of concern to them.

    • Blazer

       /  December 10, 2017

      Yes the polls are very encouraging for National…if there was an election …next ..week.

      • David

         /  December 10, 2017

        I expect her poll results to inversely track the number of overseas interviews she does where she virtue signals and domestically actually achieves little. I predict a new low when she appears in Vogue in March which should just about coincide with a downturn in the economy given business confidence has just dropped by 39% should be showing up around then in real terms.
        Its a stupid and risky appearance given she has no track record of any achievements and could backfire badly.

        • Blazer

           /  December 10, 2017

          business confidence is an over rated measure….
          Is New Zealand heading in the right direction?

          Right direction 51%
          Wrong direction 26%
          Don’t know 27%

    • Corky

       /  December 10, 2017

      Yes, Winston is earthing the discontent about this government at the moment. Budget time will be when things get interesting-metaphorically speaking- because in reality the cupboard will be bare and uninteresting.

  3. david in aus

     /  December 10, 2017

    Those National supporters who were hoping for NZF to go with Labour will be happy. This is the high-tide mark of any new government.
    Back in government for National in three years. NZF will be wiped out by the next election.
    This new government will be forced to make some tough decisions in the next few years. All from their own mismanagement. With their spending plans, taxes need to increased or cuts to spending. The new goverment’s narrative of ‘under-investment’ by the last goverment only means taxes will go up. Breaking more promises made by Labour. Not popular.

    The narrative for Labour is already set by the last election. It has to demonstrate top notch financial management or otherwise ……….

    • Blazer

       /  December 10, 2017

      now the bureaucrats have revealed the reality of Nationals mismanagement and obsfucation…one would hope the public see …the ‘SOUND FINANCIAL MANAGERS’ MEME,FOR WHAT IT REALLY IS…P.R-spin.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  December 10, 2017

        All that has been revealed is that Education and health are still money pits, as they have been ad infinitum.
        They also revealed Pike River cannot be re-entered, but that apparently was terrible advice prepared by partisan hacks.

  4. PartisanZ

     /  December 10, 2017

    NZFirst will need to rejuvenate along more liberal, progressive lines or be wiped out next election. Their Right Brigade supporters have “Gone Brash” over promises broken … It’s so sad …

    And where will they go? The Conservatives? NR. ACT? NR.

    I see “all is forgiven” now of the pre-election traitorous Maori-loving, separatist National Party because they were, after all, such good “financial managers” for 9 years …. apart from under-investing in health, education, law-and-order, roading …. et al ad infinitum …

    So we’re back to “least compromise” voting popularity again already …. So soon …

    • david in aus

       /  December 10, 2017

      National, if they are smart, should refuse to be in government with NZF. They stand for a change in government not more of NZF.
      The left wing is very crowded as it is. There is no space to go there for NZF, you’re dreaming. Being in Government with Labour constrains them from going National-Frontesque as well. In other words, history repeating itself, out in the next election.
      Being government can be death by a thousands cuts, especially if they are incompetent.

      • Blazer

         /  December 10, 2017

        no mates National can’t govern…unless they ..get some…

        • david in aus

           /  December 10, 2017

          National is at 46% after the election already. When people are unhappy with the government, they vote to ‘get rid of the bastards’. They don’t care about mixing and matching. This government, like all governments, will become more unpopular as time passes. It is the nature of NZ democracy. There is always unmet demand or need. You can’t keep all of the people happy all of the time.

          Wasted votes will be high in the next election. Probably only need 46% to govern anyway

      • High Flying Duck

         /  December 10, 2017

        That’s where John Key was smart.
        NZ First campaigned to get votes from centre left and centre right this election.
        When John Key was PM, said he would never go in to government with Winston, which reduced the vote leakage that possibly cost National the election this time around.

  5. Gezza

     /  December 10, 2017

    Early days. Near,y 3 years to go to deliver on a brighter future for the middle & lower incomes. If Labour hit too many people in middle in the back pocket with additional indirect taxes – take money off them without giving it back via transfer repayments – they could be in the grotney pudding.

    Soon only the dementia-ridden will still be voting for NZF. And then only if supporters & Rest Home pick up van drivers give them all a piece of paper with simple instructions. Unless Winston announces his departure, picks up his gong, & toddles off to some plummy diplomatic posting or other lucrative sinecure or three. In which case some new Messiah might have a chance of setting a costed policy programme they actually intend to stick to.

    • Gezza

       /  December 10, 2017

      PS
      @ c. Now would be a good time for you to list the virtues of the Hon Shane Geoffery Jones as you see them?

      • Gezza

         /  December 10, 2017

        I see. 😕
        Is that the complete list? 😳

        • Gezza

           /  December 10, 2017

          I have to say, your list is so remarkably similar to mine c, one might as well say there’s no difference. 😐

    • David

       /  December 10, 2017

      One of her first actions will be cancelling tax cuts which are squarely aimed at low income people so she can give baby bonuses and cheaper power to people who could well be millionaires. This is after she has given free tertiary education to the more priviliged in society that attend universities despite there being no evidence that cost is a barrier, if you look at labour shortages one could argue too many are already at varsity.

      • Gezza

         /  December 10, 2017

        The tax cuts for low income people were probably only just going to cover their next power bill increase though, if they were lucky. One could argue there are already too many at varsity but are you in effect arguing only the sons & daughters of the well-heeled should be going there? We need tradespeople. I’m sure that the offspring of the well-to-do are generally raised to see that as a worthwhile career option? Perhaps more should be required to?

        • Gezza

           /  December 10, 2017

          * I’m NOT sure that the offspring of the well to are raised to be tradies, that should’ve said. God seems to have it in for me today. 😡

          • Pickled Possum

             /  December 10, 2017

            God? God! Who is this God you speak of ?
            Has the atheist’s god got a capital g
            There is only one God
            The one you do not believe in
            Tho I see some one has it in for you.
            Don’t forget to check the hub-nuts on the truck. 😎

            • Gezza

               /  December 10, 2017

              (Hub nuts) 👍🏼

              There are dozens of Gods. There are at least 3 competing, separate but vaguely-related ones that are currently especially popular in the Middle East alone. Other Gods still abound, & although some have fallen out of favour the evidence for their actual existence is roughly the same as for others.

              I have my own. It’s a lot easier that way. It means I don’t have to listen to dozens of different leaders & preachers of a multitude of different religions & sects tell me what it is REALLY saying & what it really IS, & why the others are wrong.

  6. Zedd

     /  December 10, 2017

    ‘just shuffling the deck-chairs’ obviously those who voted NZF, thinking they ‘would go with Natz’ have now changed their opinion. (1.5%) but still Natz have ‘no friends’ & still BELOW the 50%

    I still cant believe all the ‘nay-sayers’ who are already, ready to condemn the new Govt. after only about a month in power; we put up with 9 LOOOOOONG years of those smug tories !
    “Give us a break FFS”

  7. Alan Wilkinson

     /  December 10, 2017

    NZ waits for the bureaucracy to tell Jacinda what her new policies and timetables are. Business is in limbo fearing the worst. Jacindamaniacs are still in Nirvana awaiting their fantasies shattered. Expect “It’s worse than we thought” chanting in unison from the Government from now until the Budget is over.

    • Gezza

       /  December 10, 2017

      Standard modus operandi for any new administration. It keeps the wolves at bay while they figure out how to afford to do what they promised – which often involves just cosmetically tweaking work already begun by the previous administration so they can trumpet that it’s all their own work.

      They also need to figure out how much time they’ve got to implement their election biggies, before they have to also come up with, cost, & plan for some blatant vote-buying policies before the next election.

      National does it too.

  8. robertguyton

     /  December 10, 2017

    Sweet, National’s still firmly in Opposition!

    • It’s still 40% ahead of your lot and 9% ahead of Ms Ardern, magazine cover specialist, Vogue model and Climate change expert

      • Blazer

         /  December 10, 2017

        will she don an AB jersey and maybe grab a glass of beer,or a hotdog for a photo op,like the shy,retiring…John Spy?

        • Gezza

           /  December 10, 2017

          Tbh I’m rather hoping for a Kim Kardashian centrefold-type spread, & I’m exceptionally glad John Key never did one.

  9. Patzcuaro

     /  December 10, 2017

    At least the right has something to grumble about for the next 3 years, it all becomes a bit repetitive though. You can only say the end is nigh so many times before people switch off.

    • Gezza

       /  December 10, 2017

      At least Corky brings a bit of Monty Python flair to his version.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  December 10, 2017

      You can only pass laws to stop people doing bad things for so long before you stop them doing anything at all. We reached that point long ago for many New Zealanders. It is a tragedy that when interest rates are so low there are so few people able to invest in making their lives and futures better. It is an even greater tragedy that so many people are unable to recognise the cause and vote to fix it. This Government is a symptom of that tragedy.

      • Blazer

         /  December 10, 2017

        ‘ This Government is a symptom of that tragedy.’…so what does that make the previous ..Govt?

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  December 10, 2017

          The same, B, after Winston won Northland.

          • PartisanZ

             /  December 10, 2017

            Winston won Northland because National neglected the electorate for so long …

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  December 10, 2017

              National spent far more on the roads north of Auckland than ever before. The Clark Government spent nothing on Northland. Neither will this one despite Winston’s promises. Voting for Winston and blocking RMA reform was a disaster for Northland and the country. It leaves Northland at the mercy of big companies and the wealthy.

            • PartisanZ

               /  December 10, 2017

              I’d like to see figures about the National spend Alan?

              Anecdotally I reckon they may have surpassed even themselves in grossly inefficient spending? The Northern side of the Brynderwyns is the prime example. How many passing lanes spread throughout the region would that $80 million have payed for?

              Interestingly, there was a lot of work around here pre-election and there’s a lot more post-election, going on right now. Some work is even being done on SH16 up near Ahipara. The old Twin Coast highway neglected for around a decade I reckon. Some of it’s in a dreadful state.

              Wasn’t RMA reform blocked by the National government’s coalition ‘confidence and supply’ partner, the Maori Party?

              Finally, “at the mercy of big companies and the wealthy” …. What’s new?

            • Patzcuaro

               /  December 10, 2017

              God knows how much it cost but you can only do 80 kph

            • Patzcuaro

               /  December 10, 2017

              On the northern side of the Brynderwyns that is, sounds Welsh

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  December 10, 2017

        Only the wealthy can now afford to jump over all the obstacles and through all the hoops that doing something now requires. This new Government will attempt to solve the problem by making the wealthiest of all, the bureaucracy, jump for the poor. The middle class will be ignored. The poor will not value what they are given for free. The wealthy will look elsewhere as well as for opportunities around the edges of Government failures.

        • PartisanZ

           /  December 10, 2017

          Interesting comment, considering that the wealthy and big companies (same thing?) are very often the contractors who carry out the government’s failures …

          “The poor will not value what they are given for free” kinda says it all. Got any evidence of this?

        • Patzcuaro

           /  December 10, 2017

          The last government didn’t require the wealthy to jump through any hoops.

    • Corky

       /  December 10, 2017

      .”Patzcuaro : You can only say the end is nigh so many times before people switch off.”

      Yeah of little faith, Patzcuaro ! Nothings happened yet, so of course you are bored. But,oh boy, will you switch on again when this government does something that affects you.

      Yep, faster than a liberal mush to tears, you will be whining with the best of them.

      You should have been like Gezza with his ”man in the middle stance.” That way you wouldn’t have had the ignominy of being wrong. Or good ole Robert Guyton who doesn’t put his mana on the line unless he has a way to weasel out of a prediction

      So what does all that mean? It means you don’t have a chit to escape us Righties, Unlike your more intelligent brothers in arms.

      But don’t you worry. I’ll make sure they get a serve leading up to the next election.

      ps- snigger.

      • Gezza

         /  December 10, 2017

        See what I was saying about the Monty Python flair?
        It’s all very John Cleese & Manuel a la Fawlty Towers too!
        Still at least Corky thinks his posturing must be important to someone, somewhere & as comedy goes, it’s up there, imo.

      • robertguyton

         /  December 10, 2017

        Weasel out? Don’t be a pill, Corky! Labour will win, comfortably. Jacinda’s star is on the rise and will burn brightly in the lofty vault for more years than you could ever conceive!
        Clear enough for you, Corky?

        • Corky

           /  December 10, 2017

          Still weaselling out, Robert? That’s not what you said yesterday. Remember those riders?

          Now for your latest effort. ” Labour will win, comfortably!!! ” Win what? The local Netball Association raffle?

          Give it another go. Entertain me.

          • Patzcuaro

             /  December 10, 2017

            It is a bit early to be predicting the outcome of the next election, any way the “Netball Association raffle” is all a bit sexist.

            • Corky

               /  December 10, 2017

              Lol… don’t make excuses for him..or yourself. He, ( sorry!). It needs to man ( sorry) people up.

              It’s not too early to call the next election…I have.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  December 10, 2017

              Why are you disparaging the hard working people who run netball raffles?

            • Corky

               /  December 10, 2017

              I’m not. I’m disparaging you for playing silly baiting games. If you want me to stop..stop.

            • Patzcuaro

               /  December 10, 2017

              Can’t you control yourself?

            • robertguyton

               /  December 10, 2017

              Corky, a question: why would anyone care a jot for your pick for the next election. That’s not even considering your failure to vote at the last one; why, Corky, why ?????

      • Patzcuaro

         /  December 10, 2017

        It is not all about me, it is the right which thinks it is all about me.

        • Corky

           /  December 10, 2017

          No…how do you work that out? It’s me who thinks it’s all about you.

          • Patzcuaro

             /  December 10, 2017

            Sounds like you are whining like the best of them.

          • Patzcuaro

             /  December 10, 2017

            ps it’s not all about you.

            • Gezza

               /  December 10, 2017

              I just feel so dreadfully embarrassed for Corky, reading his twaddle. Somebody needs to, seeing he can’t see himself looking as daft as anybody can get, thru others’ eyes. I suppose in his own little world of his own lounge he’s a winner in some really obscure manner.

          • Blazer

             /  December 11, 2017

            you’re an ..amateur..Corky..

  10. NZ First are toast and National will be a shoe in at the next election. This new govt is completely inept and incompetent, with a PM who is going for celebrity status rather than being dignified or statesperson like. Complete trainwreck from day one. So happy that National are polling so highly. I hope they rule out Winston next time, as Key did, that was a smart move. But they may not need too, since he is already languishing near the threshold and its only early days.That’s what happens when you go with the losers, and betray New Zealand’s democracy. Go National, this will be a one term govt and then we will have a sensible government back, just hope the wreckage upon our fair land is not too great i the meantime. It’s all tax, tax, and tax some more! What a bunch of virtue signalling numpties this chaotic govt really is! Never mind, in good time, our democracy will be restored and sanity shall prevail. Next, MMP will get the boot, as it should, what an absolute farce of a system.

    • Gezza

       /  December 11, 2017

      Nope I can’t MMP ever getting the boot. For a start there’d have to be a referendum agreed to by all parties. None of them would go alng with that idea. And I don’t think the voting public would agree to it either. It’s possible, I imagine, there might one day be one on a change to the system of proportional representation, but I think, at the moment, even that is unlikely. No change is needed.

      MMP worked out ok for National for 9 years. If things get as bad as you think in 3 years they’ll be back in if they can get a coalition partner or two. Maybe even without one. Who knows. Best at the moment just to keep watch, stay calm, & carry on. It’s a bit early to be predicting disaster, especially if it’s fixable next time round. If you prefer the idea of living in a one party state there’s always China or Vietnam.

    • Blazer

       /  December 11, 2017

      you are just about drowning in …National…’kool aid’…Bev…so out of touch,its actually..amusing.

  1. Q+A – new poll plus Colmar Brunton interview — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition