More 2018 predictions

David Farrar has posted his Predictions for 2018. Most are fairly general and aiming for success (of the predictions), and of little interest outside political circles.  There’s a few of greater interest.

2. Bill English will remain National Party Leader

That contrasts with the Stuff prediction he would step down this year. It could be as better informed (inside information) prediction, or it could be a PR ploy.

5. Eugenie Sage will be elected Greens female co-leader

Stuff also predicted Sage over Genter and Davidson. She could be a compromise option, or she could be popular as a co-leader option alongside James Shaw. I think she would be a good choice.

6. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading

If MPs follow public opinion that’s likely, but ‘will pass it’s third reading’ leaves open the possibility that it will go to referendum to determine whether it will become law, or it will take longer than a year to get there.

14. The Tax Working Group will recommend a Capital Gains Tax

That’s a safe prediction – about the only question mark is probably whether it will happen this year or not.

17. Lisa Owen will be the next Political Editor for Newshub

Someone has to replace the outgoing Patrick Gower, and she is a likely candidate. I think she would be an improvement, unless overdramatics and political agendas are a job requirement imposed by directors.



Leave a comment


  1. Zedd

     /  3rd January 2018

    methinks English will hang on until, either hes had enough or is Rolled.. by.. Judith !?

    Whilst Eugenie is ‘the sensible choice’.. it looks like the Greens maybe going with the ‘younger image’ (North South Mag ?) so; perhaps Julie Anne G or Marama D may get the final nod ?? :/

  2. Chuck Bird

     /  3rd January 2018

    I predict that Scott Watson will still be in jail on 31 December 2018.

  3. Gezza

     /  3rd January 2018

    17. Lisa Owen will be the next Political Editor for Newshub

    She would be the obvious choice. It could be a good move for The Nation. She may not get so many opportunties to appear on it & keep rudely interrupting, inserting her own opinions, & talking over her guests every 2 seconds. We might see a proper interviewer brought in to replace her.

    • -D

       /  3rd January 2018

      Lisa Owen is an airhead. I always assumed the simple-minded binary “yes or no” questions she asked were prepared by someone else. If those were actually her own lines then Newshub had best think twice…i.e. (1.) yes or (2.) NO.

  4. 2Tru

     /  3rd January 2018

    I might even be prepared to watch The Nation without Lisa Owen. Heaven help Newshub though. Thankfully I watch TV1 news.

  5. PartisanZ

     /  3rd January 2018

    The centennial commemoration of the end of World War One occurs at 11am on 11 Nov 2018.

    I wonder if passing this ‘milestone’ will alter future commemorations of the Great War, however subtly?

    Or are we somehow trapped in our prideful though sanctified, nationalistic, lionized remembrance of the imperialist, industrial killing machine … ?

  6. Gezza

     /  3rd January 2018

    I predict that Sarah Huckabee Sanders won’t see the year out as Chief Press Secretary for Trumpy. The gibbering we saw with Sean Spicer is already starting.


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