Preliminary coalition agreement in Germany

Germany had their elections the same weekend as our general election in New Zealand, in September last year.

It took a few weeks to sort out a coalition agreement, a confidence and supply agreement and an functional Government. Jacinda Ardern as sworn in as Prime Minister on 26 October.

It’s taking a lot longer in Germany, where a preliminary coalition agreement has just been made.

Der Spiegel: Progress for Merkel In Search for a Government

An end to Germany’s leadership vacuum may finally be in sight as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and the center-left Social Democrats reached a preliminary agreement on Friday morning. But there are plenty of hurdles still left to clear.

It was a grueling night for Christian Democratic Union (CDU) head Angela Merkel, Christian Social Union (CSU) leader Horst Seehofer and SPD chair Martin Schulz. Indeed, it seemed at times as though it would never end. The talks, aimed at determining whether there was sufficient agreement among the three parties to begin formal coalition negotiations, had begun 24 hours earlier on Thursday morning.

Merkel called the 28-page document a “paper of give and take, as it should be.”

Seehofer, who leads the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, said he was “extremely satisfied.”

And Schulz, who hosted the talks, even went so far as to speak of an “outstanding result.”

Germany still doesn’t have a government — the talks that concluded on Friday morning were merely to determine if a coalition was possible — but the three party heads made it sound like most of the hurdles had been cleared.

Despite the positivity, however, the talks were extremely tough, with some of the news that leaked out during the night seemingly indicating that the talks were on the verge of collapsing — just as the first attempt to form a government did several weeks ago. Schulz, though, denied on Friday morning that failure had been imminent. “They were never on a knife’s edge,” he said, to Merkel’s agreement.

The fact that the three parties were able to reach a tentative agreement after less than a week of talks is hardly a surprise. After the initial round of coalition talks failed in November — negotiations that involved the CDU, CSU, Green Party and Free Democrats — Merkel’s conservatives are eager to establish a stable government as rapidly as possible.

After publicly ruling out a coalition with Merkel following the election last September, and repeating that rejection in late November, the Social Democrats ultimately realized that there was no alternative to seriously considering another alliance with the conservatives.

The pressure had simply become too great, particularly from German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Furthermore, the idea of new elections was particularly unappetizing for the Social Democrats.

It is not over yet, there are still hurdles to overcome.

SPD head Schulz, meanwhile, will embark on Monday on a mini-tour through Germany to speak to the party base — a trip that promises to be a difficult one. The party is extremely wary of yet again playing second fiddle in a Merkel-led government, and without approval from delegates to the special party convention set to take place a week from Sunday in Bonn, the SPD will be unable to enter formal coalition talks.

Merkel’s conservatives don’t face such difficulties. It is seen as a virtual certainty that CDU and CSU leaders will authorize their party heads to enter formal coalition talks. The two parties are eager to finally set up a stable government.

Schulz isn’t just fighting for a coalition with Merkel and Seehofer, he is also fighting for his own future as party head. If the convention should vote against formal coalition negotiations with the conservatives, he would likely be forced to step down — and the party’s entire senior leadership would come under pressure to do the same.

That, in turn, would put Merkel’s own hold on power to the test: Two failed attempts at assembling a government could prove to be too much to withstand.

And Seehofer would be in the same boat.

In comparison, our negotiations circus with Winston Peters as ringmaster seems to be quaint and distant political history.

A CDU/CSU coalition with SPD is a bit like National/ACT forming a coalition with Labour.


German parties involved:

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) / Christian Social Union (CSU)

Leaders: Angela Merkel (CDU)/Horst Seehofer (CSU)

Voters: People over the age of 60, churchgoers, living in rural areas – especially in southern Germany – still represent the hardcore of CDU and CSU voters. The CDU has also traditionally done well among small business owners and people with lower or medium education levels.

2017 Bundestag election result: 33 percent (246/709 seats)

History: The CDU was founded in West Germany in 1950 in the aftermath of World War II as a gathering pool for all of Germany’s Christian conservative voters. It became the most dominant political force in the post-war era, unifying Germany and leading the government for 47 of those 67 years, alongside its Bavaria sister-party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

CDU Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, who governed from 1949 to 1963, is the closest the Federal Republic has to a founding father. It was Adenauer and his economy minister (and successor as chancellor), Ludwig Erhard, who presided over West Germany’s “economic miracle.” The party’s reputation as Germany’s rock of moral and economic stability continued under another long-term CDU chancellor, Helmut Kohl, who drove German reunification in 1990 – a key historic moment important in understanding today’s politics.

Social Democratic Party (SPD)

Chairperson: Martin Schulz

Parliamentary leader: Andrea Nahles

2017 Bundestag election result: 20.5 percent (153/709 seats)

Voters: The SPD has traditionally been the party of the working classes and the trade unions. The SPD’s most fertile ground in Germany remains in the densely-populated industrial regions of western Germany, particularly the Ruhr region in North Rhine-Westphalia, as well as the states of Hesse and Lower Saxony.

History: The SPD was founded in 1875, making it Germany’s oldest political party. In the tumultuous first decades of the 20th century, the party acted as an umbrella organization for a number of leftist movements, trade unionists, and communists. But with the founding of the Communist Party of Germany (KPD) in 1919, the SPD became the permanent home of the social justice reformers, rather than the revolutionaries – though that didn’t stop its politicians from being sent to concentration camps during the Third Reich.

The SPD’s first chancellor, Willy Brandt, governed West Germany from 1969 to 1974. He earned an international reputation for reconciliation with Eastern Europe during his time as foreign minister in a CDU-led coalition government. He was succeeded by Helmut Schmidt, an SPD icon until his death in 2015. Both remain hugely respected figures in German politics. Altogether, the party has been part of the German government for 34 of the 67 years of the Federal Republic and led governing coalitions for 21 of those. Though its reach has eroded significantly in the past few years, it was still behind some of Merkel’s most significant social reform policies during her third government, which has just ended.

Source: Deutsche Welle – Germany’s political parties CDU, CSU, SPD, AfD, FDP, Left party, Greens – what you need to know

 

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3 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  January 14, 2018

    You have to feel sorry for Germany. The countries going down the gurgler. Unlike America with President Trumpy, Germany’s new government will dish out more of the same.

    With Germany a mainstay in the conflicted EU confederation, and France probably electing a far-right government at their next election, things look grim. Oh, did I mention all those unaccounted for immigrants? There must be some incredible underground network that allows tens of thousands of immigrants to disappear in a first world nation.

    On the bright side, regardless of political intrigue, Germany still has one of the best passports in the world. Even better than ours. Ours is currently rank 7th most valuable in the world.

    • “The countries going down the gurgler”

      Not according to this:

      With its buoyant economy, increasing industrial output, renewed export boom and its record low unemployment, Germany looks to be getting along fine without the little matter of a government. This week, official data in Berlin showed the workshop of Europe’s economy returning to something like full speed. Output has registered its best monthly rise since 2009, while Germany’s trade surplus has widened the way it did in the days before the eurozone crisis.

      All this renewed stability is good news for Germany, and thus for the European Union, and thus also, in a Brexit context, perhaps for Britain too.

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/12/the-guardian-view-on-germanys-coalition-deal-merkel-in-the-balance

      • Corky

         /  January 14, 2018

        A mere reprieve, Pete. Social issues, EU millstone. Government instability. And, once Germans see how much better off Britain will be with Brexit, internal unrest.

        In fact, I’m betting America with Trump at the helm will start to change the global economic climate to Germany’s and China’s disadvantage. That would be incredible given China basically owns Americas debt.