Newshub poll – National and Labour close, NZF slump

A typically misleading headline from Newshub on their first political poll of the year: Labour soars to popularity not seen for a decade

According to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, Labour’s polling is at its highest level since 2007…

That might be correct for a Newshub/Reid Research poll, if their polling methods hadn’t changed in ten years and they have allowed for margins of error. But other polls last year had Labour around the same level of support (43%, 43%, 45%).

However Labour has risen, at the expense of NZ First.

  • National 44.5% (up 0.1)
  • Labour 42.3% (up 5.4)
  • Greens 6.0% (down 0.3)
  • NZ First 3.8% (down 3.4)
  • TOP 1.4% (down 1)
  • Maori Party 0.8% (down 0.4)
  • ACT 0.2% (down 0.3)

Most of those results are too small to mean anything, except for the Labour lift and the NZ First slump.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 38% (up 8.3)
  • Bill English 26% (down 9)
  • Winston Peters 5.7% (down 1.4)

Newshub-Reid Research interviews were conducted using online polling and computer-assisted telephone interviewing. Some 750 people were interviewed by phone and 250 online between Thursday, January 18 and Sunday, January 28.

Data is weighted to ensure a cross-section of representation of age, gender and geography.

The sample error is maximum of +/-3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

Also: Kiwis unfazed by Prime Minister’s pregnancy

And:  Bill English has solid backing as Opposition leader

One could wonder why Barry Soper raised the issue of English’s leadership in an ‘opinion’ piece this morning.

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17 Comments

  1. sorethumb

     /  January 31, 2018

    Yes NZF is useless and yes Winston missed his cue when set up by school boy. He was asked “why are you against immigration” and replied “I’m not”. He could have said “It’s our country” No commander does wrong who places his battle ship beside an enemies ship.

    Reply
  2. PartisanZ

     /  January 31, 2018

    Good result … Labour doing well … Jacinda preferred PM … and the Greens are holding their ground …

    Sorting the wheat from the chaff …

    Reply
  3. High Flying Duck

     /  February 1, 2018

    The poll reflects that Labour have come in and done what they said they would, in the midst of a pretty benign period and with good economic news still rolling in.
    It will take another year or two before the effects of the Labour policies are felt, and that is when they will either sink or swim electorally.
    You cannot fault them for their effort to date other than on partisan lines.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  February 1, 2018

      You can definitely fault them on their medical cannabis bill.

      Reply
      • High Flying Duck

         /  February 1, 2018

        I don’t really care too much about the medicinal cannabis law.
        It’s probably better to expand on the limited bill that got through than to hack away at the one that was too broad, but we shall see how it evolves at select committee.
        I’m not a fan of more or less anything the new Government has done to date, but I can’t fault them for implementing their policy.
        The polls taken after their policies have an effect are the ones that are important.

        Reply
  1. Newshub poll – National and Labour close, NZF slump — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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