Global sea level rise “accelerating a little every year”

Griff on sea level rise:


Research team detects an acceleration in the 25-year satellite sea level record:

Global sea level rise is not cruising along at a steady 3 mm per year, it’s accelerating a little every year, like a driver merging onto a highway, according to a powerful new assessment led by CIRES Fellow Steve Nerem. He and his colleagues harnessed 25 years of satellite data to calculate that the rate is increasing by about 0.08 mm/year every year—which could mean an annual rate of sea level rise of 10 mm/year, or even more, by 2100.

“This acceleration, driven mainly by accelerated melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise by 2100 as compared to projections that assume a constant rate—to more than 60 cm instead of about 30.” said Nerem, who is also a professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. “And this is almost certainly a conservative estimate,” he added. “Our extrapolation assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, that’s not likely.”.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-02-team-year-satellite-sea.html#jCp

U.S. Climate Envoy Jonathan Pershing: Five Feet Of Sea Level Rise By 2050 Possible
The mood in Marrakech was somber when top climate envoy for President Barack Obama Jonathan Pershing dropped a bombshell on observers gathered there: The rapid warming in polar regions the world is now witnessing may result in five feet—or 1.5 meters— of sea level rise by 2050.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/daphne-wysham/us-climate-envoy-jonathan_b_13070296.html

Think sea level rise will be moderate and something we can all plan for? Think again.

Sea levels could rise by much more than originally anticipated, and much faster, according to new data being collected by scientists studying the melting West Antarctic ice sheet – a massive sheet the size of Mexico.

That revelation was made by an official with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday at the annual RIMS conference for risk management and insurance professionals in San Diego, Calif.

The conference is being attended by more than 10,000 people, according to organizers. It was day No. 3 of the conference, which ends Wednesday.

Margaret Davidson, NOAA’s senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services, and Michael Angelina, executive director of the Academy of Risk Management and Insurance, offered their take on climate change data in a conference session titled “Environmental Intelligence: Quantifying the Risks of Climate Change.”

Davidson said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters or 9 feet by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than current projections. Until now most projections have warned of seal level rise of up to 4 feet by 2100..

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/04/12/405089.htm

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51 Comments

  1. PDB

     /  February 14, 2018

    Like 99% of climate change predictions it will likely be well overstated.

    So what’s this all mean? In an area with rapid sea level rise the alarmists look to have lucked out in terms of scores of ‘climate refugees’: “The Pacific nation of Tuvalu—long seen as a prime candidate to disappear as climate change forces up sea levels—is actually growing in size, new research shows.

    A University of Auckland study examined changes in the geography of Tuvalu’s nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014, using aerial photographs and satellite imagery.
    It found eight of the atolls and almost three-quarters of the islands grew during the study period, lifting Tuvalu’s total land area by 2.9 percent, even though sea levels in the country rose at twice the global average.

    Co-author Paul Kench said the research, published Friday in the journal Nature Communications, challenged the assumption that low-lying island nations would be swamped as the sea rose.”

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/tuvalu-growing-not-sinking-one-more-warming-scare-explodes/news-story/52014b69cf38b53177ddd93c763a908b

    • “Like 99% of climate change predictions it will likely be well overstated.”

      Really? Proof?

      It’s just as likely that predictions will be understated as overstated.

      • PDB

         /  February 14, 2018

        “It’s just as likely that predictions will be understated as overstated.”

        I think you’ll find with research that most climate predictions have been well overstated. Understated doesn’t scare people and doesn’t create headlines.

        • Mefrostate

           /  February 14, 2018

          Science doesn’t work like that. The full paper is here. If you think their model is incorrectly specified, you should explain exactly how. Heck, you might even get a publication out of it.

        • Griff

           /  February 15, 2018

          Lets do that research from reputable sources not some cranks blog….



    • Blazer

       /  February 14, 2018

      2.9%….a margin of error fig. arrived at,by photographs….some science.

      • PDB

         /  February 14, 2018

        So says the bloke defending this…

        “He and his colleagues harnessed 25 years of satellite data to calculate that the rate is increasing by about 0.08 mm/year every year”

        0.08m/year! Hope they didn’t…make an error!

  2. David

     /  February 14, 2018

    Fake news and spin from people with too much taxpayer funding, this could happen and that may occur seriously enough with catastrophe that never eventuates.
    However I see that Tuvalu is not sinking but growing and that we could be in for a brutal time with sun activity plummeting.

  3. robertguyton

     /  February 14, 2018

    The ostrich is an odd bird.

  4. One thing that eludes these ‘brilliant’ sea rise claimants is.
    The higher the sea level each 1 mm rise is billions and billions of liters more than the last 1mm

  5. robertguyton

     /  February 14, 2018

    Is it possible to have a “nest” of ostriches? Or is it an “embarrassment” of ostriches? Anyone know?

  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  February 14, 2018

    Just read the pre-publication press release. The estimate is dependent on climate models and assumptions about volcanic activity, ENSO and selected tide gauge measurements. No indication of uncertainties in the estimate is given. Sadly, this is typical of the way climate alarmism is marketed.

    • Trevors_elbow

       /  February 14, 2018

      Thanks Al. I was about to observe they are predicting of 25 years of data…. a blink in climate timescales and extrapolating… with no comments in the post by Pete on error margin, methodology, etc

      If the sea rises there is little we can do bar relocate or build dikes where it makes sense….

      All seems a scam to justify wealth transfers….

      • Blazer

         /  February 14, 2018

        and just who is the wealth getting transferred to and from…whom?

        • High Flying Duck

           /  February 14, 2018

          From private citizens to Governments and then to the UN.

          • Blazer

             /  February 14, 2018

            the U.N is an inter governmental agency?

            • High Flying Duck

               /  February 14, 2018

              The U.N. powers that be are unelected, and yet dictate policies and curtail freedoms, and promote huge transfers of wealth as they see fit.

              From the (opinion) article Missy posted on the Oxfam scandal:

              “Consider the United Nations, whose personnel have been involved in some truly abominable crimes: running prostitution rings, ivory smuggling, trading aid for sex. Because it is the United Nations – because, in other words, it embodies the lofty ideal of peace among countries – it is not subject to anything like the same censure that a national government or a private organisation would in similar circumstances.

              During the recent referendum, I found that many students, in particular, even placed the EU in that category. They weren’t interested in examples or mismanagement, lack of accountability or outright corruption. Because the EU had come in their minds to stand for Good Things, anyone who opposed it was a racist, and any criticism of it was politically motivated.”

            • Blazer

               /  February 14, 2018

              so an unconvincing explanation of this transfer of wealth to the U.N…and what they supposedly do with… it.

        • Trevors_elbow

           /  February 14, 2018

          Follow.the.money…. you’re a bright lady you’ll figure it out

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  February 14, 2018

      The horror of all this is that empowers politicians and bureaucrats to remove property rights using climate alarmist predictions as justification. Very many people will be seriously harmed in consequence.

    • Mefrostate

       /  February 14, 2018

      Raw GMSL acceleration was 0.097mm/y2

      Accounting for Mt Pinatubo increased the estimate by 0.020mm/y2

      Accounting for ENSO decreased the estimate by 0.033mm/y2

      This resulted in the final estimate of 0.084

      Instrumental drift is discussed at length, and contributes to the final estimate having a ± 0.025 mm/y2 confidence interval.

      All perfectly reasonable techniques. Your statement “no indication of uncertainties in the estimate is given” is factually incorrect.

      Sadly, this is typical of the desperation that marks climate denialism.

      • Mefrostate

         /  February 15, 2018

        No response. Typical.

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  February 15, 2018

        Just read your comment, Mefro. My reference was to the direct link PG gave. You are correct the full paper does give a summed error estimate. However as the image below shows the component catering for uncertainty due to the short time series of the data is almost certainly inadequate.

        • Mefrostate

           /  February 15, 2018

          It’s the longest time-series possible with satellite data, and forms one cog in the scientific machinery on this subject.

  7. Zedd

     /  February 14, 2018

    …. still the apathy & denial from so many.. IF they were living in Kiribati or another low-lying area, maybe they might actually SEE things differently ? 😦

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  February 14, 2018

      Speak for yourself and fix your drains. “low-lying” islands in trouble have a simple cause – overpopulation and excess water draw-down.

  8. Alan Wilkinson

     /  February 14, 2018

    This is a typical tide gauge record and similar to the NZ ones I linked a little while ago:

    No acceleration over a prolonged period. The black, red and yellow lines are regressions over three different spans and are indistinguishable.

    Evidently in order to show acceleration you have to torture the data until it confesses. Preferably using adjustments and models. Then only can you get funding.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/12/do-rising-temperatures-cause-rising-sea-levels/

    • Griff

       /  February 15, 2018

      ROFL
      yip .
      Why did they use 1910 to 1950 and 1980 to 2015 and only one obscure port in Germany
      After all we have the entire record .
      They also fail to give values for their trends instead make an assertion that they are the same with out disclosing their results .
      Cherry picking ……torturing data by any chance ?

      FWIW Alan tamino has actually published work on sea level .
      Both Neil White and John Church of Church and White endorse his work on his blog..

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  February 15, 2018

        Tamino is a leading member of the climate alarmist nutter clique, Griff. As such they have no problem in publishing fantasies based on data-tweaking as this current paper demonstrates. Show me an untampered with, long tide-gauge series that shows a curve rather than a straight line and I’ll be interested.

        • Griff

           /  February 15, 2018

          You will continue to deny even if I did .
          like you lied when I pointed out your statistics NZ graph ended in 2006 and showed you the latest data .

          Tampering Alan ?
          More crazy conspiracy nonsense .
          All data needs to be checked for quality my friend .
          You need to see the data not the problems inherent in the measuring method to make informed comments.
          Saying or implying they are tampering with it shows crazy.

          As to tamino
          He has published in the scientific literature and had his work often endorsed by the actual experts .
          Not some nobody wonk on WUWT … a nutter conspiracy blog.

  9. Zedd

     /  February 14, 2018

    I often hear that the so-called experts who claim things like ‘Its just part of the normal cycle OR there is NO clear evidence..’ etc. are often found to be funded by industries, that are causing the problems ie the Petrochemical Industry !!

    • Mefrostate

       /  February 14, 2018

      I often find that to be the case as well, but the denier’s counter is that a) there’s huge grant money to be made from climate alarmism, b) alarmists are pushing their agenda because they’re all leftists who want to justify state intervention in markets, and c) denier’s have to get industry funding because it’s impossible to publish evidence that disputes the extent of climate change.

    • Griff

       /  February 15, 2018

      Gee how many papers has Homewood published Maggy?
      ZERO on any subject.

      Doctor R. Steven Nerem
      https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=QcJ_rfAAAAAJ&hl=en
      Citations 10448
      That is 10448 times other scientists have referenced his work on the matter of measuring sea level .
      What Homewood writes on his blog is meaningless.
      Unless you are stupid enough to believe some nutter on a blog over one of the worlds leading scientific experts on a subject.

      When you distill such nonsense you linked to down you end up with some crank conspiracy of the worlds scientists and scientific body’s.

      I think that is crazy talk don’t you?

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  February 15, 2018

        Appeal to authority fail, Griff.

        • Griff

           /  February 15, 2018

          Nope Alan.
          argumentum ad verecundiam. (also known as: argument from authority, appeal to false authority, appeal to unqualified authority, argument from false authority, ipse dixit) Description: Using an authority as evidence in your argument when the authority is not really an authority on the facts relevant to the argument.
          https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/…/Appeal-to-Authority

          Doctor Nerem is a world recognized authority as are Church and White.
          Homeward is some random blogger with no expertise writing on a conspiracy whacko blog.
          Maggy made the logic error in appealing to someone who is not an expert.
          You are making logic errors as usual for someone who has their head in the sand .

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  February 15, 2018

            Complete rubbish from start to finish, Griff. Maggy cited a critique, not an expert. The critique put the recent data in the context of the long term pattern and showed the claimed recent acceleration is a typical short term fluctuation unlikely to continue.

            • Griff

               /  February 15, 2018

              Dr. Roy Spencer, Please Keep Your Religion Out Of Science
              https://www.realskeptic.com/2014/01/29/dr-roy-spencer-please-keep-religion-science/
              Links to the webshite of someone who thinks global warming is not real because god would not allow it .
              Mr Spencer has along history of being wrong in his often adjusted satellite series Alan
              Why don’t you dispute that because it is adjusted and relies on climate models .

              In fact why don’t you dispute the above data as it is adjusted.

              FWIW
              Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807 (2014)
              S.JevrejevaabJ.C.MooreacdA.GrinstedaeA.P.MatthewsbG.Spadaf
              From the abstract
              We calculate an acceleration of 0.02 ± 0.01 mm·yr− 2 in global sea level (1807–2009).
              Some points
              it is 2018.
              Your source for the above graph S.Jevrejevaab confirms sea level rise is accelerating .
              It is also adjusted and according to tamnio fails in the statistical methods .
              https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/04/huge-problem-with-jevrejeva-et-al-sea-level-data/

              In fact Jevrejevaab published this in 2016.
              Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C
              Svetlana Jevrejeva, Luke P. Jackson, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Aslak Grinsted and John C. Moore

              Warming of 2 °C will lead to an average global ocean rise of 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises. If warming continues above 2 °C, then, by 2100, sea level will be rising faster than at any time during human civilization, and 80% of the global coastline is expected to exceed the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m for mean global ocean sea level rise. Coastal communities, notably rapidly expanding cities in the developing world; small island states; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Cultural World Heritage sites; and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to these rises.

              http://www.pnas.org/content/113/47/13342
              Dear dear .

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  February 15, 2018

              Progressing from appeal to authority to ad hominem attacks is not a great track record, Griff.

              The 2016 paper is entirely model based as far as I can see and in which I place little confidence.

              Tamino’s challenge to the 2014 data depends on the significance of mismatched ranges. Given the large number of source sets it is unlikely to be significant.

            • Griff

               /  February 16, 2018

              Rabbit hole.
              Your linked graph comes from someone who agrees the sea level trend is accelerating

              Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807 (2014)
              S.JevrejevaabJ.C.MooreacdA.GrinstedaeA.P.MatthewsbG.Spadaf
              From the abstract
              We calculate an acceleration of 0.02 ± 0.01 mm·yr− 2 in global sea level (1807–2009).

              That describes a curve not a straight trend.
              Not some wonky graph pulled from Dr Roys webshite my friend That’s from a scientific paper from the man who actually compiled the information behind the graph on Dr Roy Spencer PhDs webshite .

              You don’t trust models
              Argument from Incredulity. Description: Concluding that because you can’t or refuse to believe something, it must not be true, improbable, or the argument must be flawed. This is a specific form of the argument from ignorance.

              Any projection into the future is a model
              like the sun will rise tomorrow .
              Wanna bet the sun will rise ?

              ad hominems are a fallacy of relevance where someone rejects or criticizes another person’s view on the basis of personal characteristics, background, physical appearance, or other features irrelevant to the argument at issue.

              The issue at hand is climate science
              Dr Roy is a Cristian who believes god made the world and only god can change it.
              http://cornwallalliance.org/
              When it comes to climate science that makes his opinion worthless and his blog output suspect.
              In fact the man not only denies climate science he also denies evolution
              Aka religious nutter .
              That is a fact relevant to the debate not an ad hominem as is Dr Roys rather good record for being totally wrong and needing to be corrected by others in his specialty “modeling” temperature data based on microwave sounding from satellites.

              face it Alan
              You have ignorance and conspiracy based nuttery.

  10. As usual, Griff, you cannot say anything without name calling. That is what got you banned from a lot of other sites, isn’t it? You can’t teach an old dog new tricks as you continue to prove.
    The latest paper on sea level acceleration isn’t Jevrajeva 2014. It appears to be Watson 2017. http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00134.1
    It concludes diametrically opposite things to your assertions, but that isn’t unusual, is it?

  1. Global sea level rise “accelerating a little every year” — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition