Labour jump in Colmar poll

Labour have jumped up to 48% in the latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll. National has slipped a bit with Greens and NZ First struggling.

  • Labour 48% (up 9)
  • National 43% (down 3)
  • Greens 5% (down 2)
  • NZ First 3% (down 2)
  • Maori Party 1%
  • TOP 1%

That will shake up the parties and pundits. It’s not a big drop for National but they will be worried about a downward direction with English stepping down, but it’s a major bump for Labour, at the expense of their partner parties in Government.

Ardern is up 4 to 41% in preferred Prime Minister, Bill English dropped but is irrelevant now in polls.

46 Comments

  1. robertguyton

     /  February 19, 2018

    Oh dear!
    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear!
    (To paraphrase Keeping Stock).

    • Corky

       /  February 19, 2018

      You were surprised by these results, Robert?

      • robertguyton

         /  February 19, 2018

        Oh dear!

        • Corky

           /  February 19, 2018

          National has an excuse..they are in opposition.

          Tell us about this, Robert.

          Greens 5% (down 2)
          NZ First 3% (down 2)

          • PDB

             /  February 19, 2018

            The new govt better hope Winston & his MP’s doesn’t go feral on them in order to distinguish his struggling party from Labour/Greens.

          • robertguyton

             /  February 19, 2018

            National (always) has an excuse.

            • Same period for National in 2009. Key on 56%, Labour on 28%. And just to think that Key didn’t appear in every magazine in the country, his spouse didn’t have a weekly column in various media, announce a baby, virtue signal at Waitangi AND he had the media against him.

            • robertguyton

               /  February 19, 2018

              Sir John must < still be PM then, Traveller!
              Bless the Lord!

            • Mefrostate

               /  February 19, 2018

              Ok, so Merv’s analysis uses the change between the last pre-election Colmar Brunton poll and the February CB poll after the election.

              Using that measure, Key increased National’s popularity by 9% in his first few months (from 47% to 56%).

              And over the same period, Ardern increased Labour’s popularity by 11% in her first few months (from 37% to 48%).

              Therefore Ardern is clearly a more effective leader than Key.

              Now, the analysis I have done there is complete bullshit which relies on cherry-picked polls in order to make a partisan political point devoid of any real insight.

              Just like yours.

              Also, you should note that the phrase ‘virtue signalling’ has been abused so much that it’s essentially become devoid of meaning to me. Actually it tells me more about you than it does about the person you’re throwing it at. Still eager for your response to my criticism of the phrase here.

  2. High Flying Duck

     /  February 19, 2018

    That is an excellent result for Labour. It still needs to be balanced with the fact there are few Labour policies enacted, and no impacts as yet.
    However, hopefully this will jolt the Nat’s into some serious reflection in choosing a leader and working to win the next election. Any thoughts of sleepwalking back in to power should be put to rest.

    • Gezza

       /  February 19, 2018

      Labour’s got some weak Ministers & Parliamentary performers – but National aren’t really scoring any hits against the government yet – none that matter to anybody other than their usual supporters.

      There goes the so-called missing “bounce” for Labour.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  February 20, 2018

        Opposition leadership battles take the pressure off the ruling party – National benefited from it 5 times.
        The Nats are all internally focused for another week or two.
        And other than banging on about Labour not doing anything they haven’t really got any openings as yet.
        The budget is the first chance to really criticise – and the first chance the Government has of showing cracks as the 3 parties fight over policy gains.
        Generally polls don’t won’t matter other than as a rough guide as to cut through with the public til towards the end of 2019 when we lead into election year.
        I doubt National will be upset, given their numbers have remained remarkably high and the Labour bounce has been mostly at it’s own coalition partners expense.

  3. Mefrostate

     /  February 19, 2018

    Well, that completely demolishes Farrar’s scam about Labour having failed to show the ‘honeymoon bounce’ in the polls. Shame that he managed to get a full media cycle out of a premature conclusion drawn on shoddy data.

    https://yournz.org/2018/02/13/farrars-honeymoon-poll-bounce-scam/

    • Gezza

       /  February 19, 2018

      Snap! Mefro. 😀

    • High Flying Duck

       /  February 20, 2018

      The problem was never with Farrar, Mefro – it was with the media who did no checking and accepted a National Party spin with complete credulity.
      The same thing happens both ways all the time. Complete rubbish is breathlessly reported as fact on the say-so of one source and then repeated throughout the media as groupthink takes hold. Sometimes a small correction is made if it is shown to be completely wrong, but not always.
      To call it a scam or somehow nefarious is drawing an extremely long bow, unless you think one article about a poll could undermine a government.

      • Joe Bloggs

         /  February 20, 2018

        Come come Farrar’s not that green behind the ears. He knew exactly what he was writing.

      • Mefrostate

         /  February 20, 2018

        Yes, HFD, my criticism is of both Farrar for deliberately constructing a misleading narrative, and the media for breathlessly repeating it.

        Lessons learned: don’t take Farrar’s statements as expert opinion, but rather as political spin. And the media aren’t so much biased as they are churnalists looking for clicks.

  4. PDB

     /  February 19, 2018

    Labour eating up its partners – NZL First in extinction mode and the Greens irrelevant as normal. The new govt have not rocked the economic boat with them backtracking and/or delaying numerous election promises so the public are still feeling comfortable with the way things are going.

    National still polling well for an ex-govt of 9 years now recently put into opposition – they have time on their side to rebuild but who they choose as leader now is crucial.

    So much for MMP as well with a staggering 91% of voters voting for the two major parties on this poll result.

  5. artcroft

     /  February 19, 2018

    And its all thanks to Ardern. Amazing what a difference one person can make.

    • Gezza

       /  February 19, 2018

      Well, two – if you count Winston. She wouldn’t be PM without him. But yep, now she’s the poll vote Queen.

  6. David

     /  February 19, 2018

    Good result for Labour. Lets hope they realize its because they are not changing any of Nationals policies.. except at the fringes.

    • Blazer

       /  February 19, 2018

      did National actually have…policies?

      • David

         /  February 19, 2018

        Well no they just carried on with Helens stuff, just did it better, and she carried on with Ruth Richardsons who was doing the same thing as Douglas. Since 83 NZ has pretty much followed the same model…Thatcher and Reaganism.

    • Blazer

       /  February 19, 2018

      past history….get your violin out and start…scratching.

  7. David

     /  February 19, 2018

    There are 8% of Labour supporters who dont have Ardern as their preferred PM which is quite staggering, unless of course its another rogue poll like the Colmar Brunton one before the election that was wildly different to all the others.
    I would say Collins is probably the winner tonight.

    • Joe Bloggs

       /  February 20, 2018

      “There are 8% of Labour supporters who dont have Ardern as their preferred PM which is quite staggering”

      hahaha David, that’s classic. Are you also staggered that 25% of Republicans don’t support trump?

      Or do you save your staggering for the Left?

  8. Alan Wilkinson

     /  February 19, 2018

    Polls don’t matter much. What they do does. I’d give Labour a plus for proposed abortion law reform and their TPP reversal and a minus for charter schools and cannabis law obfuscation. No points for pregnancy and not much else on the score-card yet.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  February 19, 2018

      Another minus for the waka-jumping disgrace.

  9. Judith Furlong

     /  February 20, 2018

    Does anyone have any idea why NZ First are so down in the polls? I don’t understand why!

    • Gezza

       /  February 20, 2018

      Winston didn’t deliver on a general referendum to get rid of the Maori seats so the Maori-bashers will be feeling shattered (or shatted upon). He’s also let down others over other “bottom lines”. I can’t remember them all. He’s not really all that bothered about policies from my observations over the years. His main strategy is to say whatever will con people into voting for NZF.

      • Gerrit

         /  February 20, 2018

        If we cast our minds back to when the power companies for partially privatised. Peters was going to buy the shares back at the price they sold for.

        He is in a position to do that but again, nothing is happening in the buy back.

        Cheap Peters rhetoric with no follow up. So typical.

        • PartisanZ

           /  February 20, 2018

          Agreed, Winston was supposed to be The Right Brigade’s ‘Trojan Horse’ but turned out to be a hollow old gelding nearly ‘out to pasture’, who might deliver an indoor track for the horse-racing industry if they’re lucky … A truer definition of “flogging a dead sport” cannot be imagined … [with the possible exception of Team New Zealand?]

          2017 Winston promised a referendum to abolish Maori Seats … He also reneged on his “No. Never” to cannabis law reform … among other things …

          His ‘Work for the Dole’ hasn’t materialized and Flexi-Super evaporated into thin air, both as a result of Union opposition I believe …

          Bye-election Winston promised Northland all and sundry … plus 10 x 2 lane bridges …

          2014 Winston promised a binding referendum on ‘Anti-Smacking’ …

          And the list goes on …

          • Corky

             /  February 20, 2018

            Winston has delivered utu to Bill English and National. I think that’s all that mattered to him. Like a spawning salmon, Winston knows his time is up. I doubt he cares what any of us think.

            • PDB

               /  February 20, 2018

              Plus becoming his treasured Minister of Foreign Affairs where he can live it up socially at taxpayer expense & Minister for Racing which is his personal favourite.

              His voters and his own MP’s have been had – again.

    • PDB

       /  February 20, 2018

      Maori seats referendum, big reduction in immigration, no-TPPA, a total change of direction from the National govt (hasn’t happened) were his biggest election promises for 2017 and all were broken. No surprise his supporters are leaving in their droves.

      • To highlight their gross inefficiency or lack of cohesive organisation NZ First haven’t even started to deliver on a key policy – that of moving Govt functions to regions.

        “Wheels are not yet in motion to implement a key coalition policy – moving government functions to the regions.
        The New Zealand First policy was adopted and written into its coalition agreement with Labour.
        But Newshub can reveal that the Minister responsible has received absolutely no advice on the matter.
        I have received no advice regarding relocation [of] government functions into the regions,” said State Services Minister Chris Hipkins.
        Newshub requested a copy of any and all advice, briefings and reports produced or received by the State Services Minister or his office on the matter, but it was refused.
        “The document alleged to contain the information requested does not exist,” was the response.
        The policy, launched by Winston Peters in 2016, was intended to share economic growth across the country.
        “The regions need jobs to boost their economies,” he said at the time. “Service industries and shops will flourish with more residents spending their money locally.
        “Currently we have a country with the majority of jobs concentrated in overloaded cities. There is no reason in this age of advanced technology that Government office jobs cannot be in smaller cities and towns.”

  10. Zedd

     /  February 20, 2018

    Three Cheers for the Govt. so much for all the talk (on ZB etc.) that the country was heading for the gurgler & all the waffle about Natl (biggest party).. how heroic they are, BUT not according to these stats ! LOL

    • PDB

       /  February 20, 2018

      Not as bad as all the waffle about ‘a change of direction’! Three cheers for National-lite!

      The new govt are doing their best to copy the previous National govt, so much so election promises are being thrown out on a regular basis. God help their poll results if they actually do try to change anything.

      • Zedd

         /  February 20, 2018

        The best thing they could do.. CHANGE all the Tory policies ASAP..