National leadership poll (sort of interesting but out of date)

A public poll on the National leadership is of limited value, because the leader is chosen by National’s 56 MPs only, and the poll was conducted before the leadership contest began. But it is a bit interesting, especially National supporter results.

The Spinoff Exclusive: Poll gives Judith Collins slim lead as preferred National leader

A UMR Research survey puts the polarising MP in the lead – but only slightly, and her favourability numbers are dismal, an area in which Amy Adams holds bragging rights.

The tussle to lead the biggest party in New Zealand’s parliament will be a tight one, if polling conducted largely prior to Bill English’s resignation and exclusively revealed to the Spinoff is a guide. Of the declared candidates, Judith Collins can boast the greatest support as preferred National Party leader, both among National voters and the wider public, though her lead over Steven Joyce is statistically negligible.

Not surprising to see so many ‘unsure’. The poll is split over eight MPs with a third ‘unsure’.

Notable that Mark Mitchell doesn’t feature, but that’s not surprising because the poll was almost entirely before Bill English announced he was stepping down, so before any candidates put their names forward.

Favourability ratings are also pertinent:

Collins is slightly behind Adams on favourability, but has twice the unfavourability with about half respondents seeing her unfavourably.

UMR Research, whose clients include the Labour Party, returned the results from its nationwide online omnibus survey, conducted between January 30 and February 14 (Bill English resigned on February 13). A nationally representative sample of 1,000 New Zealanders 18 years of age and over are surveyed. The margin of error for sample size of 750 for a 50% figure at the 95% confidence level is ± 3.1%.

The margin of error for National supporters will be much higher.

38 Comments

  1. Blazer

     /  February 22, 2018

    Big numbers for Bennett.She must know internally she is…toxic.

    • Sunny

       /  February 22, 2018

      She kicked butt in parliament yesterday. She was cool and super professional and had Jacinda riled over charter schools and conflict of interest. Interesting talk from Christine Rankin with Duncan Garner last week saying how cruel and ruthless labour were when they demonised her when she was in charge of WINZ. And how she needed police protection. Paula took the big hit over welfare changes that needed to be made and the public persecution of her was ruthless.

      • Blazer

         /  February 22, 2018

        Rankins so ungrateful…they let her off huge legal fees,when she lost her quest for a pot of gold…in court.Lightweight ,out of her depth.Reminds me of…Bennett.

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  February 22, 2018

          I can see no resemblance between her and Paula Bennett.

          I wonder if she really needed police protection. The woman is an egomaniac. She asked Mark Prebble if her top was too low cut and he said yes, he could see an embarrassing amount of her breasts. She then threatened to charge him with sexual harassment.

          I remember one time when she was on the news, bent over and her braless boobs (poached eggs) fell out. The camera was turned off just in time to stop everyone seeing it in total. It was an unforgettable sight and not a pretty one. Men working with her must have been afraid that they would see and be accused of looking.

          I think that she would have shifted the blame onto National had they been in.

          People disliked her because she was such a show-off and because she did things like drop someone else in it over the private plane and luxury hotel jaunt by making her sign it off. She once came ‘on stage’ through dry ice, as if she was a star.

          I read an article in which she said that her grandchildren would tell her how young and pretty she was.

          Her last husband’s wife killed herself when she discovered that he and Christine Rankin were having an affair. The wedding took place 3 MONTHS LATER.

          That’s why people don’t like her.

      • Gezza

         /  February 22, 2018

        I agree that she managed to get Jacinda to look and frustrated with her yesterday. The Government is clearly getting sick of the same questions about Partnership schools, announcements about which which they have ill-timed & handled badly by not having any detailed policy yet on Special Character school requirements with which to blunt criticisms.

        Davis has also made them look bad for his having studiously avoided meeting with ANY outside his own electorate, which is favourable treatment. But so far I don’t think this is really that important to anyone but the small number of schools & pupils themselves, and the Opposition.

        Their strategy I think is to try & make Jacinda lose her temper in the hope that THAT will be newsworthy & get the issue more publicity. I suspect she’s too smart to lose her temper.

        • Gezza

           /  February 22, 2018

          * look and sound frustrated – soz.

          Gerry Brownlee is pretty good with his points of order.

          • Kitty Catkin

             /  February 22, 2018

            I think that she will lose her rag. She doesn’t seem good at being confronted.

            • Gezza

               /  February 22, 2018

              Actually I think she’s quite good at being “confronted” so far.
              Nobody I can think of has managed to publicly dent her composure in any significant way. She always has an answer & it’s always politely delivered. Doesn’t mean that opponents or reporters will necessarily like or accept it, but she knows when to say “time’s up, thank you, gotta go”, like any experienced leader facing up to enemy.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  February 22, 2018

              Saying that to avoid an issue is the oldest dodge in the world and fools nobody.

  2. PDB

     /  February 22, 2018

    Slater from memory usually talks up ‘net favourability’ but he won’t be talking about this poll which shows his champion (Collins) at negative 20.

    If you were choosing a new National leader based on this poll then only Adams & Kaye would be in the running.

  3. David

     /  February 22, 2018

    its Collins/Joyce for me

    • PDB

       /  February 22, 2018

      Joyce is a ‘behind-the-scenes’ guy. Surprised he doesn’t pack it in really after 9 years of govt.

      • alloytoo

         /  February 22, 2018

        “Surprised he doesn’t pack it in really after 9 years of govt.” – Given that he’s self made, and doesn’t need the job, probably qualifies him for the job.

        It is reassuring that National has candidates who have and could earn more by entering the private sector.

        • PartisanZ

           /  February 22, 2018

          They’re there and they remain there to protect their corporate ‘private sector’ interests … Its not a qualification at all … In fact, its more likely to be a directive from the Lodge.

          Its a shit job basically, but someone has to do it …

          • David

             /  February 22, 2018

            Said with irony I hope Partisan given your team just adiosed the Kermadecs for Winstons rich mates in the corporate fishing industry, Arderns chief of staff has gone back to shilling for his corporate clients after training her and filling her office and our dear leader has just promised Aucklands fat cats she will try harder to boost their confidence and make them love her and not be scared.

          • Sunny

             /  February 22, 2018

            Protecting private sector interests. Wasn’t it Jacinda in the news early this week for hiring thompson a big gun lobby group star for her chief of staff . “This means Thompson was made Chief of Staff by the Prime Minister, with the full knowledge that he would then return to his lobbying business, where he would be involved with clients with an interest on influencing the new government. Indeed, he finished work last Friday in his job as the number one adviser to Jacinda Ardern, and resumed his lobbying job yesterday.”

          • PartisanZ

             /  February 22, 2018

            David, thank goodness they’re not my team …

            David and Sunny, you both exhibit the sadly limited, combative tunnel-vision of the New-Right in thinking that unions or organised labour is not a ‘corporate interest’ – both in the sense they are corporations of sorts – incorporations – and in the sense they are an essentially component of private sector cooperacy – which the Right for unknown and increasingly peculiar reasons feels compelled to ‘brand’ and maintain as being Darwinian competitiveness …

            After a century-and-a-half of struggle against capitalist oppression, it was just at the time when unionized labour reached a strong enough position to bargain for cooperative economic-partner status with employers that the New-Right stepped in to prevent it …

            • David

               /  February 22, 2018

              Never mentioned Unions Partisan, not worth worrying about really.

            • PartisanZ

               /  February 22, 2018

              True, you never mentioned Unions … nor did Sunny … I can’t even find the comment I thought I was replying to … My apologies … which don’t negate the basic principles of my comment …

              False: Organised labour is worth worrying about all right. First it will inevitably make a comeback and Second, the economy will come to depend on its cooperation with capital …

      • David

         /  February 22, 2018

        I would have Collins as leader and Joyce as deputy PDB.

      • Blazer

         /  February 22, 2018

        he’s not actually…his penis head is always out there,whether its non existent fiscal holes,or spoon feeding candidates.

  4. Todd’s still in with a chance (my favourite).

  5. PartisanZ

     /  February 22, 2018

    Or alternatively, sort of out-of-date and not interesting at all …

    Collins/Joyce is a ticket to nowhere for the Nats … They should ride that train …

    • Mefrostate

       /  February 22, 2018

      Yep. As someone rather swingy, and who could see himself voting National again in the future, Collins/Joyce has absolutely no chance of winning my vote. They’re simultaneously the worst kind of politicians with the worst track records. Adams &/or Kaye are the most likely to win me over.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  February 22, 2018

        So you’d vote National if they put their most left-leaning MP’s in charge?
        The problem with those two, competent and capable as they are, is they are not true National in the sense of what the party is supposed to stand for.

        • Mefrostate

           /  February 22, 2018

          Basically, yes. Their best shot at winning swing-voters is by moving leftward into the center. That was what worked under Key, along with his personality. And I think those are the two battle-grounds where National need to focus their efforts to beat Jacinda.

          While the other candidates might be more true to National’s core base, you might find that they alienate core NZ and hurt the party in the polls.

  6. Zedd

     /  February 22, 2018

    looks like Judith is the ‘Man for the job’ (the rich boys club ?) 😀

    • Mefrostate

       /  February 22, 2018

      Nasty thing to say. Stop it.

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  February 22, 2018

        Ignore him, Mefro, like Blazer he can’t help exhibiting jealousy of anyone more successful than he is.

        • Gezza

           /  February 22, 2018

          Well, as Speaker Trev would say, I reckon that one of yours is “marginal” itself, Kitty.
          Whether someone is “successful” or not means different things to different people. We don’t all measure success by the same yardstick.

          • Kitty Catkin

             /  February 22, 2018

            In this context. it’s obviously career and financial success. He slags off so many people who are well off and have good careers that one can conclude that he is jealous of them.

        • robertguyton

           /  February 23, 2018

          Few are more successful than Blazer!

  7. Another poll on National leadership (but not of the 56 MPs who decide):

    • Mefrostate

       /  February 23, 2018

      Seems to confirm my argument above that Amy Adams is the best way for National to go. With Collins they’ll bleed centrists to Labour, with Adams they’ll win some back. Even if Adams is disappointing to the more socially-conservative or libertarian segments, those people will just bleed off to parties (Conservatives & ACT) that would happily coalition with National after the next election.

      On a normative level, Adams would be great too, as we’d see a more socially liberal National party (which I desire) and more influence from ACT (who I think play an important role, when they’re not pandering to Epsomites).

  1. National leadership poll (sort of interesting but out of date) — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition