Trump improved in polls, a bit

Donald Trump’s approval ratings have been better for most of the last two months (February, March) than they have been over the last twelve months, but they are still negative:

It’s difficult to know why there has been an improvement this year – it will be a combination of factors. Getting tough on trade may be having an effect, and recent recovery may have been influenced by Trump joining the international condemnation of Russia. There is no obvious sign of the Stormy Daniels affair affecting support.

RCP Poll Average trends:

Interestingly the latest poll result is from Rasmussen which has Trump on -8% overall approval (45-53). In late February they had his approval slightly ahead of disapproval (50-48) but his approval has slipped gradually since then.

Despite the improvement Trump is still well below the approval of Obama and GW Bush at the same time into their eight year terms, as shown by FiveThirtyEight:
It’s difficult to predict how things will go from here.

The tax cuts will have pleased many. Time will tell how they work out – Trump has just agreed to a huge spending bill and the US is significantly increasing deficits and debt levels, and that will impact over time.

Much may depend on Trump’s trade ‘wars’ and the economy – the US sharemarket had improved significantly right through last year but ironically dropped steeply at about the same time Trump’s approval ratings improved at the start of February.

Jobs were a big deal in the 2016 election campaign. Success or failure there can only be judged over time.

Trump seems to have had some success in his confrontation with North Korea, and has agreed to meet with Kim Yong Un, but that has not been organised yet – the north Korean leader has just visited China and has said he will denuclearize.

The Middle East could go any way – if Trump can move the region towards peace he will win a lot of credit, but Syria and Afghanistan are still looking very dicey.

Trump’s White House administration has always struggled to get staff and has turned over a lot of high level staff – this could reflect the rush to fill positions when unexpectedly winning the presidency, with a gradual sorting out of who fits his leadership style and policy preferences – or it could be rats jumping ship. Trump’s manner or firing and humiliating people who fall out of favour may discourage potential replacements.

And the Russian election interference issue is still simmering away without a clear idea whether that will damage Trump or his family, but he must have concerns given his attacks on the inquiry and the FBI. This could all fizzle out at the Trump level, or it could blow up big time. The jury is still out on that, with a lot of the investigation details still under wraps.

22 Comments

  1. chrism56

     /  March 30, 2018

    The more telling poll is the one that shows Justin Trudeau is less popular than Trump.
    http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/justin-trudeau-is-less-popular-than-stephen-harper-was-at-this-point-in-his-tenure-as-prime-minister
    The relevance to NZ is our Prime Minister has modelled herself on Mr Trudeau and openly expressed her admiration for him and his policies.

    • Blazer

       /  March 30, 2018

      Trudeau will bolt in again unless a major war breaks..out.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  March 30, 2018

        The latest poll over their disagrees

        “Justin Trudeau would lose if an election were held tomorrow, India trip a symptom of shift in mood: Ipsos poll

        According to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, public reaction to a recent troubled trip by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to India two weeks ago might be a symptom of a growing problem.

        Liberals would win 33 per cent of the national popular decided vote if Canadians went to the polls this weekend, while Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives would receive 38 per cent of the same vote and win the election.”

        https://globalnews.ca/news/4058984/justin-trudeau-india-trip-ipsos-poll/

      • David

         /  March 30, 2018

        I dont thinks so Blazer he is just a little too PC which only takes you so far, his India trip was hilarious.

        • Corky

           /  March 30, 2018

          I honestly thought the photos of Trudeau in India were Photoshoped.

          • Gezza

             /  March 30, 2018

            No he got some Aljaz tv coverage – including that Indians who realised he thought they all dressed like in Hollywood epics were both embarrassed at how silly he looked and offended at how low rent and comic he was.

    • David

       /  March 30, 2018

      “The relevance to NZ is our Prime Minister has modelled herself on Mr Trudeau and openly expressed her admiration for him and his policies.”

      So far, she is outperforming this measure by miles. It took Trudeau a year to look quite as weak and ridiculous.

  2. David

     /  March 30, 2018

    More popular than Merkel, Macron and May too. Clintons approval ratings improved during the Lewinsky thing as the Republicans totally over played their hand and Clinton got on with successfully running the country. Trump slept with a porn star 10 years ago…so what and is anyone surprised and does it matter, nope but I would imagine people are starting to feel sorry for Melania and if the coverage is a bit much.

    • Corky

       /  March 30, 2018

      Melania would’ve known the score when she married Trump, Dave. My guess is she
      was expecting Trump to be discreet. The problem was hush money paid out to these tarts is long gone and now they want to cash in again before Trumpy becomes an ex president. Maybe the Clintons have the right idea? Their accident before payout policy.

      • David

         /  March 30, 2018

        I think he was sleeping with her when he was married to his previous wife so she is probably not surprised.
        Stormy,s lawyer has been on the campaign teams for quite a few Democrats and he was doing a pretty good job of raising his own profile but I think he has overdone it now. Those american lawyers are crazy.

      • David

         /  March 30, 2018

        “Maybe the Clintons have the right idea? Their accident before payout policy.”

        Wasn’t Teddy Kennedy the innovator of that idea?

  3. sorethumb

     /  March 30, 2018

    Adern reminds me of an Americas Cup. IE you go through an eye of the needle to get into parliament.
    The eye of the needle is a political machine + funding.
    The political machine represents groups not the nation as a whole. That’s why we have a 35% turnout.

    • High Flying Duck

       /  March 30, 2018

      What are you going on about?
      Last election:
      Overall turnout as a percentage of enrolled electors was 79.8%, the highest turnout since 2005 when it was 80.9%.

  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  March 30, 2018

    As far as I can see the main thing the polls are showing is that the US is deeply and politically divided with little middle ground so very little crossing over happening. This is accentuated by the even split in the Senate riven by perpetual war, routine obstruction and frustration. And on top of this Trump spars continuously with the coastal Lefty MSM and entertainment elites. If he didn’t he would be buried by their continuous flow of hit pieces on him but via Twitter he can redirect the news focus.

    • Gezza

       /  March 30, 2018

      He just appointed the handsome young military doctor who gave the Press details of Trump’s annual medical checkup to be Head of Veteran’s Affairs & booted the previous high roller out.

      • Gezza

         /  March 30, 2018

        Aljaz tv said last night he’s served in Iraq (or might’ve been Afghanistan).

      • David

         /  March 30, 2018

        Shulkin, and the management of VA healthcare has been a disgrace. Why it’s taken Trump so long to fire him is significant miss.

        • Gezza

           /  March 30, 2018

          Might give him the benefit of the doubt there. He may not have wanted to appoint another avaricious toady, and if he had Shulkin in mind – he may have taken a bit of persuading. His biggest challenge is that he’s never done anything like this before in his life.