Colmar Brunton poll – little change

Polls have been scarce lately. 1 news have their second poll of the year. It doesn’t show anything drastic – a bit of movement from Labour to their Government partners.

  • National 44% (up 1)
  • Labour 43% (down 5)
  • Greens 6% (up 1)
  • NZ First 5% (up 2)
  • Maori Party 1%

So Labour have eased back a bit after a difficult period, and National have held up despite the exit of Bill English and Steven Joyce – it is the first poll since Simon Bridges took over leadership.

Greens and NZ First have both improved marginally (at Labour’s expense).

  • Refuse to answer 4%
  • Undecided 8% (down 1)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 37% (down 4)
  • Simon Bridges 10% (up 9)
  • Winston Peters 5% (up 1)

The gloss seems to have worn off Ardern a bit. It’s early for Bridges, he will still hardly be known by most of the electorate.

Peters doesn’t seem to be liked outside NZ First support.

Poll conducted 7-11 April 2018.

What try hard bollocks.

National are likely to be pleased a change of leadership has barely changed their support.

 

71 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  April 16, 2018

    Might be time for them to add Hon Shane Geoffery Jones MP, PCn, FCOTP in to the list of preferred PM candidates?

    • Kitty Catkin

       /  April 16, 2018

      (blows coffee over keyboard)

      How about Bluey Gezzason as preferred PM ?

      • Gezza

         /  April 16, 2018

        Wouldn’t be fair to either Ardern or Bridges. He’s a reality tv star.

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  April 16, 2018

          I didn’t think of that. How about my dog, the great reader and writer of pomes ?

          • robertguyton

             /  April 16, 2018

            He does his work on an Apple?

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  April 16, 2018

              Pome = joke, something that those with a sense of humour understand. It appears that you are not one of these people.

              Pomme is the French for apple.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  April 16, 2018

              The Latin for Greens (Greens as in the party) is Asini.

            • robertguyton

               /  April 16, 2018

              I’ll bet it isn’t.

            • robertguyton

               /  April 16, 2018

              I quipped that your dog composes his written work on a computer and you don’t think that even slightly amusing or clever?
              Sweet.

            • robertguyton

               /  April 16, 2018

              “pome
              pəʊm/Submit
              nounBOTANY
              a fruit consisting of a fleshy enlarged receptacle and a tough central core containing the seeds, e.g. an apple, pear, or quince.”
              I surely know my apples.

  2. Gezza

     /  April 16, 2018

    Andrew Kirton:
    Which means the real news is that fact Bridges is not resonating.

    That wasn’t how 1ewes seemed to see it. The real news for them was that Labour & Jacinda have dropped in the polls. Simon got a mention at the end.

    • Kitty Catkin

       /  April 16, 2018

      I don’t think that it was even on New Shub.

      5 points is quite a drop, and I would not be surprised if the Greens and their pcness were responsible, That and the Clayton’s tax, er, I mean excise. The last I heard was Miss Ardern was backpedalling and saying 20c, what 20c ?

    • Gezza

       /  April 16, 2018

      Actually – to be fair (I’m just watching 1ewes on demand – they are saying Simon Bridges should be worried – at 10% he could be digging his own political grave, they compared that to Labours loser leaders pre Jacinda.

      But definitely the big news for them was that “Jacinda’s honeymoon is over” – they used the phrase at least twice.

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  April 16, 2018

        Time will tell but mostly National have just had to stand by while the Government self-harms. The test for Bridges will come when he has to front up more. He might be best to use his female attack dogs a lot and present as the calm leader in control.

        • Gezza

           /  April 16, 2018

          One thing Simon doesn’t have is charisma. In fact he seems to have had a triple charisma bypass. How that’s going to work for him in the celebrity politics climate we have now will be interesting. He still sounds like a robot & a totally humourless character.

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  April 16, 2018

            Yes, why did the caucus choose him?

          • Gezza

             /  April 16, 2018

            God. I dunno. Best person to ask might be trav?

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  April 16, 2018

              He’s a dignified contrast to the grinning, gesticulating Jacinda.

            • Gezza

               /  April 16, 2018

              Bit of a whinger though, I notice

            • robertguyton

               /  April 16, 2018

              Jacinda’s grinning, ‘coz she enjoys running rings around Bridges. Gesticulating? Unable to contain her mirth, I think.

  3. Alan Wilkinson

     /  April 16, 2018

    Jones and the Greens have played to their bases successfully. Labour have started to lose in the centre.

    • Gezza

       /  April 16, 2018

      Joy Reid, reporting on Jacinda’s worldwind trip from Paris, where she will be meeting M. Macron shortly to push for a free trade agreement, noted that Jacinda had used very careful language in her statement about the US, British & French attack on Syria on the weekend, that she didn’t wholeheartedly support it.

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  April 16, 2018

        She couldn’t. Her support hates Trump. She had to weasel.

        • Gezza

           /  April 16, 2018

          My point is that I was right and you were wrong.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  April 16, 2018

          No, you were wrong. She supported it but wished she didn’t have to. She also believed the reasons given.

          • Gezza

             /  April 16, 2018

            No you were wrong she never even said she believed the reasons given. But I’ll leave it here because you’ll just carry on like a dog with bone.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  April 16, 2018

              To accept the reasons given you have to accept their truth. Any doubt can only refer to the actions subsequently taken.

            • Gezza

               /  April 16, 2018

              Whatever…

    • Gezza

       /  April 16, 2018

      If Simon doesn’t come up in the polls that could end up negatively impacting National’s support next time round. He’s not impressing me yet, I have to say.

      • phantom snowflake

         /  April 16, 2018

        To my mind both Bridges and Bennett are clearly caretakers; it may be quite some time till we see the emergence of those who will take National into the 2020 elections. Any early predictions?

        • I think it’s too soon to tell with Bridges. I’m neither impressed nor particularly unimpressed. He’s got two years to build some credibility as a leader, and as long as National hold current levels of support, give or take a little, for the next year to eighteen months he could have a shot at leading National to some sort of victory in 2020.

          And a lot depends on the trio of parties and their leaders in power now, whether they measure up or not. And there will be curve balls to deal with, likke weather Peters stands again.

          Polls are of interest but are given far more importance than they deserve, especially at this stage of a term and of leadership tenures.

          • Gezza

             /  April 16, 2018

            The big first test for both of them is going to be the Budget. That’s when the fur will fly.

          • robertguyton

             /  April 16, 2018

            I’m “particularly unimpressed”.
            There’s nothing there. Good news!

            • That’s a misquote if ever I saw one. Pete said, ” I’m neither impressed NOR particularly unimpressed.” Time to take the blinkers off!

            • robertguyton

               /  April 17, 2018

              Pete’s not “particularly unimpressed”. I am.

            • Oh right, thanks for clearing that up 🙂

          • phantom snowflake

             /  April 16, 2018

            It’s obvious that the sun has set on Bennett’s career; I can’t see her as a serious contender for 2020. The only reason I can think of for keeping her currently is continuity/maintaining the status quo. My theory regarding Simon Bridges, which I have mentioned before, is that he was the closest the National Party could come to a clone of Bill English. Despite the obvious differences in age and race, they are both from the right/moral conservative factions of the party. (English a staunch Catholic, Bridges a staunch Baptist.) I think their attitudes and approaches to politics are quite similar. So it’s a steady as she goes/don’t rock the boat approach to leadership.
            Clearly, following an election loss (Well okay, a failure to form a government) change is needed to generate some momentum, and with a Bridges/Bennett team that change has not come. I think the smart money would be on a new team about a year out from the election.

            • I don’t think deputy is important. Kelvin Davis looked hopeless and didn’t seem to affect Labour/Ardern’s rise.

            • Gezza

               /  April 16, 2018

              I never thought of deputy as being particularly important until suddenly Jacinda needed one on deck.

      • David

         /  April 16, 2018

        Its hard to say with Bridges, I have kinda switched off from the MSM and he isnt winning in parliament but one bright spark said why interfere with your enemy when they are busy fucking it up by themselves.

        • Gezza

           /  April 16, 2018

          Probably Putin

        • Blazer

           /  April 16, 2018

          don’t forget ..there’s an election looming..in about 30 months…

  4. Zedd

     /  April 16, 2018

    perhaps the ‘honeymoon’ is over.. BUT Lab/NZF/Grn still over 50% & Jacinda still ahead of the field; pref PM 🙂

    • Gezza

       /  April 16, 2018

      True, and 1ewes pointed this out. But Simon was shown visiting his old school and telling them he was in the school play & wanted to be Oliver but sadly he ended up playing the undertaker. If he’s going to be visiting schools you never know … worked for Jacinda?

  5. robertguyton

     /  April 16, 2018

    Bridges is a flop.

    • David

       /  April 16, 2018

      Well logically so is Davidson then

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  April 16, 2018

      Too soon to judge. Leadership is more than just fronting. As Lange demonstrated and Jacinda may yet.

      • David

         /  April 16, 2018

        Unfortunately for Ardern she is off to have a baby shortly so Labour are likely to continue to slide and who knows if her return, if she does, will see her having less energy to commit to the country.
        Peters could always surprise and do a great job.

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  April 16, 2018

          She will have less energy, she is almost 40 (elderly primagravida) and the odds are against her bouncing back. She looks drained now.

    • Zedd

       /  April 17, 2018

      he is likely just keeping the seat warm.. “will the REAL Natl party Leader.. please stand up !” (JC ?)

  6. David

     /  April 16, 2018

    I think the Greens should be really worried about this poll, since the Turei debacle and Arderns ascension they have clawed back virtually none of the support they lost and when, while early days their election results are always lower than their polling.

  7. Griff

     /  April 16, 2018

    Margin of error stuff.
    I don’t see any significant change or a reason to think an election held today would give a different result. NZ first has pretty much told national to go …. themselves since the election.
    NZ first Greens and labour still have a easy majority.

  8. David

     /  April 16, 2018

    National and Labour should both be pleased with this poll, transition to Bridges has had no negative effect and Ardern should be delighted Labour is still in the 40s given their performance.

    • robertguyton

       /  April 16, 2018

      ” transition to Bridges has had no negative positive effect (whatsoever)”

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  April 16, 2018

        You must have misread the poll. Labour is down, National is UP.

        • robertguyton

           /  April 16, 2018

          Labour are in , National are out .

          • Kitty Catkin

             /  April 16, 2018

            Labour are down. National are UP.

            As they said in the Victorian era….do you have an estate in Greenland ?

  9. robertguyton

     /  April 16, 2018

    “I think the Greens should be really worried about this poll”
    Well, we’re not! We love ! We love climbing in the polls, up we go, as I said, gaining popularity, being recognised as a breath of fresh air in a fetid Parliament. We love Jacinda too; she’s popular, like us!

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  April 16, 2018

      Jacinda has less support than Trump?

    • David

       /  April 16, 2018

      9 months ago you were polling 13% Robert and you could possibly have hit your low point, could be a dead cat bounce though.

      • robertguyton

         /  April 16, 2018

        13% and beyond, David, here we come! This is easier than expected, though I knew that once in power, the Greens would become the darlings of the nation, and we will; New Zealanders are beginning to realise just what good the Greens can do for everybody; you’re kicking and screaming a bit, but soon you’ll open your heart to the Greens and be a better man for it. Who’s going to save us from certain disaster? The Greens, that’s who!

        • David

           /  April 16, 2018

          If they joined with National and pushed the Kermadec Sanctuary into law I would open my wallet as well as my heart.

          • robertguyton

             /  April 16, 2018

            Not
            Going
            To
            Happen.
            It’s a great shame National poisoned the waters around the Kermadecs. Had they followed proper process (they didn’t) a solution might have been found, but they bullied their way through, as is their style, and stuffed our chances.

            • Gezza

               /  April 16, 2018

              I don’t see how – you’re the government now. Why can’t you all get together and have consultations around it and reach a solution?

            • robertguyton

               /  April 16, 2018

              They will. Griping from the discontented won’t speed the process up.

          • Blazer

             /  April 17, 2018

            when the right open their wallets…moths…fly out.

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  April 16, 2018

        David, it IS a climb….people don’t just climb UP 😀

        Only a deluded Green could think that a slide down of five means that the party and person who have each achieved this are gaining popularity, unless they mean that they are gaining it for the other side. No wonder they are called green.

  10. PartisanZ

     /  April 17, 2018

    Aside from Labour’s fall, all the others are well within margin of error territory …

    Since they’re in coalition, the Greens’ and NZFirst’s rises compensate for Labour’s 2% outside of margin of error …

    Combined, these three still have the numbers to maintain their coalition.

    Nothing like the drama predicted by the Right …