Further boom in tourism forecast, infrastructure warning

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has forecast up to a 40% increase in tourist numbers by 2024 (that’s just 6 years away). The opportunities have been welcomed by Local Government New Zealand, but they have warned that already stretched infrastructure will be put under more pressure.

Tourism Minister Kelvn Davis: Tourism growth forecast to continue

Tourism Minister Kelvin Davis has welcomed new forecasts showing international visitor spending is expected to grow 40 per cent to $14.8 billion a year by 2024.

The New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2018-2024 were released today by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.

“New Zealand’s tourism sector is forecast to grow steadily over the next seven years, reaching 5.1 million visitors annually by 2024, up 37 per cent from 2017,” Mr Davis says.

“We expect to see numbers climb fairly rapidly over the next two years, due to favourable economic conditions and better air connectivity, but over the longer term growth will be more moderate.

Mr Davis says a healthy tourism industry is great for New Zealand, though there is work to do to ensure the sustainability of the sector.

“It is important that the Government, councils and industry work together to meet the challenges that accompany the forecast growth.”

It’s worth remembering that John Key was Minister of Tourism for much of the last decade.

Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ): Predicted tourism boom could push infrastructure to breaking point

LGNZ President Dave Cull says that a new forecast predicting an international visitor increase of 37% to 5.1 million annually by 2024 will be a great boost to regional economies across New Zealand, however infrastructure is already under pressure and much more is needed to ensure a fair funding division is achieved between tourists and local ratepayers.

“The tourism sector is predicted to grow rapidly over the next two years, but as evidenced last summer infrastructure it is extremely stretched in many regions, with provision of public toilets, car parks and basic potable and waste water infrastructure coming at a substantial cost to communities,” says Mr Cull.

“Those communities with scale can share the burden across many rate payers, but smaller ratepaying bases are picking up big bills to accommodate visitor demand and the lack of infrastructure is resulting in tension among communities.”

Mr Cull contends that the increase in international visitor spend should be harnessed to provide tourism infrastructure.

“This is about fairness. It’s not right to burden ratepayers with subsiding the entire cost of infrastructure which is used by tourists, and there needs to be a new mechanism for tourism to support itself.”

LGNZ is advocating strongly to Government on councils’ behalf that the Government introduce a Local Tourist Tax to raise the necessary funding to meet the capital and operating costs associated with tourism mix-used infrastructure future demand, thus alleviating the financial burden on local ratepayers.

Without the necessary funding tools to ensure the needs of both locals and tourists are met, New Zealand faces the prospect of over promising and under delivering in a sector that is so critical to our economic future.

“New Zealand should be known as a high-quality tourist destination with fit-for-purpose facilities to handle the expected increase in numbers and a country that welcomes and embraces their visit.”

The forecast is both promising and challenging.

Leave a comment

31 Comments

  1. David

     /  May 8, 2018

    Tourists should be charged more clearly.

    Reply
  2. Blazer

     /  May 8, 2018

    ‘It’s worth remembering that John Key was Minister of Tourism for much of the last decade.’
    why would that be?

    Reply
    • Tourism has grown considerably over that time.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  May 8, 2018

        and you put this down to Key being Minister for 8 years?Please explain.

        Reply
        • Grimm

           /  May 8, 2018

          What facts would make any difference to you?

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  May 8, 2018

            if you have any ,lets see them…won’t hold my..breath.

            Reply
        • He and the National led Government must have done some things right.

          I recall that tourism took a hit with the Global Financial Crisis, people travelled and holidayed and did business less. Tourism not only recovered, it has improved that much that pressure on infrastructure has become a real problem.

          If tourism had tanked and stayed down and if the economy hadn’t recovered so well I suspect you would havee ap;portioned some of the blame on Key – that’s what you’ve done on the failure to change the flag.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  May 8, 2018

            Forget the ifs,and your theories.The facts are the hit and the recovery in tourism which of course is inbound visitors had very little to do with who was minister.
            Externalities are what drove ..it.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  May 8, 2018

              He’s got his knighthood & retired to a life of luxury golfing.

              What’s he got to do with the post or future tourism & infrastructure needs?

          • Blazer

             /  May 8, 2018

            read the ..thread.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  May 8, 2018

              I did. He got a marginal mention. My recollection of the guy is that he was a pretty active tourism Minister, raising the flag & extolling the virtues of this country wherever he went. There was tourism potential & focus as a driver in numerous decisions such as funding the Americas cup & The Lord Of The Rings, just as two examples that spfing immediately to mind.

              Peole don’t just suddenly decide ooh I know I’ll go see New Zealand after hours of effing flying. Overseas officials don’t just bugger off on trade missions, they travel in parties promoting New Zealand as a tourist destination. Government Missions & Departments interact with Tourist operators to assist in this area as well.

              I wonder if your anti-Key obsession has reached the level of being pathological sometimes.

              What stats & other information have you looked into to compare his activities & success or otherwise as Tourism Minister to other previous Tourism Ministers?

            • Blazer

               /  May 8, 2018

              I regard Key as the worst P.M in my lifetime bar none.At least Muldoon had good intentions.Tourism promotion has a big budget.Inflation alone will account for a compound increase in tourism receipts.You could do as good a job,without leaving your hut.

            • Gezza

               /  May 8, 2018

              I see. Can you demonstrate with statistics that inflation alone accounted for any increase in tourism receipts over the period retired luxury golfer Key was Tourism Minister?

            • Gezza

               /  May 8, 2018

              2013. Anything more recent up until he jacked it in?
              Data on the total spend by tourists over the reported period?
              Comparison with data from previous Tourism Ministers’ tenure?
              Any information on tourism promotion & assistance activities by Tourism Officials?

  3. PartisanZ

     /  May 8, 2018

    ‘Global tourism is destroying the environment and cultural identities – and doesn’t make good business sense’, argues Anna Pollock

    “The industry resembles a high-speed train, crammed with passengers with cheap tickets, racing toward a cliff edge. So it’s worth asking why this challenge generates so little debate in the press and in general business literature …

    Many sectors are running themselves into the ground financially as margins dwindle to razor thin. Meanwhile, thanks to congestion or overuse of scarce water and land resources, many destinations are destroying the landscapes and attractions, both natural and cultural, on which they depend …

    What’s to be done?

    It will first and foremost require hosts to wake up and see their world differently – not as a resource to be exploited, but as a sacred place to be protected and celebrated for its uniqueness.

    Second, it is important they start to view their customers not as mere units of consumption, but as guests seeking to be healed and transformed … In short, not more but better.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/six-reasons-mass-tourism-unsustainable

    Reply
    • PartisanZ

       /  May 8, 2018

      The postcolonial critique sees the tourist as one of the most virulent viruses of neoimperialism, the foot soldier of late capitalism. Tourism turns people into commodities.

      On the one hand, “the native” becomes an exotic living other. “As far as the tourists are concerned, the inhabitants of exotic places are not human beings but rather zoological objects” (Cohen 1983, 365).”

      Or mere servants?

      “As such, “tourists are cannibals of culture” (Adler 1989, 353). Furthermore, poor countries are forced to “prostitute themselves” (both literally and metaphorically ) (de Kadt 1979, 63).

      Conversely, for the local residents, the tourist becomes a walking dollar sign, an means to a certain goal. In both cases, the person’s humanity is washed out of the equation.

      The tourists lay siege to scarce resources, but little money ends up in the country, and especially does not end up in the hands of the non-elites. Tourism makes the rich richer and the poor poorer and brings economic growth without development and sustainability (Kunwar 1997, 174).”

      http://gpgrieve.org/3maps/3maps-%5Bvi%5D3.html

      Reply
      • PartisanZ

         /  May 8, 2018

        But then … to paraphrase Gezza … What’s left to sell?

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  May 8, 2018

          FMD. What’s my comment you’re “paraphrasing” that from.

          Reply
          • PartisanZ

             /  May 8, 2018

            “Who else have they got?”

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  May 8, 2018

              Then, once again, you have got it wrong. To correctly paraphrase me it would need to be “what else have they got?”

              I’ve got an idea. Why not stop attempting to paraphrase other people & getting it wrong & just use your own words for what you want to say?

            • PartisanZ

               /  May 8, 2018

              Fair enough: What else have we got left to sell?

              I sense that tourism is somehow seen as the last possible bastion of ‘clean green’ industry for Aotearoa NZ … all up-side with no down-side …?

              The perception or semblance of ‘Clean & Green’ that is, even if the reality is long gone or never really existed …

            • Gezza

               /  May 8, 2018

              Well, I think that’s right. So it is time for the industry to start looking at who’s benefitting from tourism & who’s suffering from it.

    • JAB

       /  May 9, 2018

      On the same theme:
      A new study says global tourism accounts for 8% of carbon emissions, around three times greater than previous estimates.

      When measuring per capita emissions, small island destinations such as the Maldives, Cyprus and the Seychelles emerge as the leading lights. In these countries tourism is responsible for up to 80% of their annual emissions.

      Demand for international tourism is also being seen in emerging countries like Brazil, India, China and Mexico, highlighting a fundamental problem – wealth.

      The report underlines the fact that when people earn more than $40,000 per annum, their carbon footprint from tourism increase 13% for every 10% rise in income. The consumption of tourism does “not appear to satiate as incomes grow,” the report says.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44005013

      Reply
  4. PartisanZ

     /  May 8, 2018

    ‘We need to talk about voluntourism’

    Voluntourism – volunteering while abroad – would seem to be a way of making your OE that little less self-indulgent, leaving the communities you visit better than you found them. But what is intended as an act of charity can leave long-term damage, writes Hannah Reid.

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/21-04-2018/we-need-to-talk-about-voluntourism/

    Reply
  5. sorethumb

     /  May 8, 2018

    Mr Davis says a healthy tourism industry is great for New Zealand,
    ……………………..
    Real wages fell 24.5% between 1979 and 2006 and haven’t got any better.
    Take a look and you will see Chinese and Koreans driving buses while Kiwis stay at home.

    Reply
    • PartisanZ

       /  May 8, 2018

      Exactly … because the culture has become ‘commodified’ in every way …

      Recent immigrant drivers are cheaper …

      The scourge of ‘Freedom Camping’ is cheaper …

      The Tourism ‘product’ is getting cheaper … and cheaper … and cheapened …

      Reply
      • sorethumb

         /  May 8, 2018

        It’s the property/construction etc sectors who benefit.

        Reply
        • PartisanZ

           /  May 8, 2018

          Among others … and how much of those ‘sectors’ is already foreign owned?

          Reply
  6. sorethumb

     /  May 8, 2018

    Reply

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