Colmar Brunton poll – little movement

A day after the Newshub/Reid Research poll another poll with largely similar results, this one from 1 News/Colmar Brunton:

  • National 45% (up 1)
  • Labour 43% (no change)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • NZ First 4.2% (down 0.8)
  • Maori Party 0.9% (down 0.3)

Nothing much new there. The changes are insignificant.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 41% (up 1)
  • Simon Bridges 12% (up 2)
  • Winston Peters 4% (down 1)
  • Judith Collins 2% (no change)

So no boost (or loss) for Labour after the budget, and National support remains high despite a lack of traction for Bridges.

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12 Comments

  1. Zedd

     /  May 28, 2018

    I think the Pfr_PM; Jacinda 41% is the telling figure; streets ahead

    • Kitty Catkin

       /  May 28, 2018

      The results quoted last night were different.

      1% isn’t much of a drop unless it’s 1/6 of the total, which in the Greens’ case it is.

    • David

       /  May 28, 2018

      Another 20% Zedd and she will be as popular as Key was at this stage.
      The Greens should be desperately upset at this result and I think is the real story, they were polling 13-15% a years ago yet no one seems to want to unpack that instead focusing on what is a pretty normal preference level for a new opposition leader.
      The Kermedecs decision, the abandonment of cameras on fishing boats, the waka jumping bill and then giving their questions away to save the embarrassment of having to ask questions in parliament is not a winning strategy. If they stay at 5% Labour will have to jettison them in the next election campaign and grab what could otherwise be a wasted left vote.

    • Corky

       /  May 28, 2018

      People don’t seem vote on the preferred PM…otherwise National wouldn’t have the lead in Party Votes.

      Many voters seem to love Jacinda, but not the Labour coalition. Ultimately that makes her as impotent as Bridges if she can’t grow the party vote.

    • PDB

       /  May 28, 2018

      At the moment Bridges has zero profile so it appears 41% or so is the best it’s going to be it for Ardern unless the baby factor helps things.

      Looking on the bright side for Bridges is the fact he has plenty of room within the National party supporters alone to get his personal ratings up considering at least 33% of them don’t currently have him as preferred PM. In fact there must be a huge % of people with ‘no preferred PM’ looking at those figures.

      • David

         /  May 28, 2018

        That is a very good point, interesting to know why.

        • PDB

           /  May 28, 2018

          Stuck in-between I’d imagine – don’t like Ardern but the alternatives ain’t up to much either. The sort of people who don’t particularly like Bridges but like the National party and therefore would vote for them anyhow.

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  May 28, 2018

            A lot of people who are not interested enough in politics to know who Bridges is but don’t like Labour.

  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  May 28, 2018

    Labour has eaten the Greens’ and NZF’s lunch. But too remote from an election to matter. Bridge’s rating isn’t as important as National’s strategy for turning the extra 5%. We don’t know what that is yet.

    • Gezza

       /  May 28, 2018

      Barking at every passing car isn’t the best one, that’s for sure. They’ve ended up barking at their own policies a few times – because Labour’s implementing them while waiting for Werkinggruppen to recommend theirs.

    • PDB

       /  May 28, 2018

      A lot more taxes and obligation-free welfare that will surely be put forward by the (ahem) ‘independent’ panels may do the trick…as would the economy tanking, fuel prices skyrocketing and interest rates going up.