Northcote by-election polls

Early voting has opened in the Northcote by-election. ‘Election day’ is 9 June.

There have been claims from both Labour and National about polls leading into the voting period, however these are internal polls commissioned by the parties with no details made public, so should be viewed with scepticism. I’m posting about them here to put it on the record, so claims can be compared to results.

The Daily Blog on Thursday:

The latest internal polling by Labour astoundingly suggests that Labour could beat National in Northcote!

I’ve just seen the latest polling for the Northcote by-election and it’s much closer than we thought.

Going into this race we knew we were underdogs – and, if I’m honest, it looked like we had a huge mountain to climb to even get close given National’s huge majority.

But the latest polling we received yesterday reveals there are just a few points in it. There is a chance Labour could do well on June 9.

Labour have just sent this out to their Northcote support team, and if true could be one of the biggest upsets in a  safe National electorate since Winston took Northland!

Labour has emailed not just members but apparently it’s whole email list (someone I know in Dunedin with no connection to Labour got one).

Referring to a tweet that it had been posted on The Daily Blog:

We will just have to wait and see what the result is. A lot may depend on party ‘get out the vote’ organisation and voter motivation, which can be low for by-elections like this with little but party egos at stake.

Typically single electorate polls can have quite small sample sizes so have higher than normal margins for error.

And by-elections with nothing much riding on them can have very low turnouts. Turnout comparisons in Mount Albert (which Jacinda Ardern won early last year):

  • General election 2014 – 36,922 votes
  • By-election 25 February 2017 – 13,649 vote
  • General election 22 September 2017 – 38,760 vote

These are the by-election candidates in Northcote:

Candidate Name Party
BERRY, Stephen ACT New Zealand
BIDOIS, Dan National Party
CHEEL, Tricia Democrats for Social Credit
HALBERT, Shanan Labour Party
JAUNG, Rebekah Green Party
KOLONI, Kym Independent
LYE, Jeff Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
WALSH, Liam NAP

9 Comments

  1. duperez

     /  May 29, 2018

    Obviously by-elections are different animals than general elections.

    After taking Northcote off Ann Hartley with a 7% gap in 2005 Jonathan Coleman stretched it to near 30% in the subsequent three elections.

    The narrowest gap for Coleman was last September when Shanan Halbert closed to within a mere 17%. Using the old definition of a waterway, it seems likely the ‘mere’ gap this time for Halbert could be as narrow as Westhaven to Northcote Point or as wide as Pt. Chev. beach across to the Island Bay wharf.

  2. Gezza

     /  May 29, 2018

    Ok … um … 🤔 National by a nose this time. By a landslide in 2020.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northcote_(New_Zealand_electorate)

    • Gezza

       /  May 29, 2018

      Who’s got it in for Wikipedia! 😡

  3. Blazer

     /  May 29, 2018

    another poor made good candidate for..National,but quite uninspiring by…all accounts.
    Dusting off Honky Tonks..to help..out.

  4. Zedd

     /  May 29, 2018

    Go Jeff ! 🙂

  5. Zedd

     /  May 29, 2018

    you’d think if Nat; were serious.. they would put up someone the public had heard of !?
    rather than another suit with a blue rosette on !

    • Zedd

       /  May 29, 2018

      they could look for someone as ‘popular’ as say.., Maggie Barry (another Nth Shorite)

      • Blazer

         /  May 29, 2018

        Maggie has been on permanent gardening leave…since she entered politics.

  1. Northcote by-election polls — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition