Open Forum – Monday

18 June 2018

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100 Comments

  1. chrism56

     /  June 18, 2018

    The “catastrophic” ice loss in Atarctica is almost entirely due to the GIA adjustments made to the actual measured data.
    https://climateaudit.org/2015/12/02/antarctic-ice-mass-controversies/
    The GIA adjustments are the same ones that are used to have sea level accelerating.
    Why are climate scientists looking more and more like carnival hucksters?

    • chrism56

       /  June 18, 2018

      And for those that can’t be bothered actually reading anything longer than a paragraph, the take home statement was:
      “Gavin Schmidt told VICE news that he would “pin more weight” on gravimetric data:
      “data from a pair of satellites called GRACE, which measure gravity, actually points towards a net loss of ice on the Antarctic continent in more recent years. Schmidt said that there are two methods for measuring the mass of an ice sheet. The first measures gravity, and the second measures the elevation of the top of the ice sheet. Both methods need to take different variables into account to be accurate. The method used in this most recent study measured the ice sheet’s elevation, and the most recent time period it considered ended in 2008. “I would pin more weight to the GRACE data than to this latest paper,” Schmidt told VICE News
      Since the impact of problematic GIA adjustments is nearly six times larger on GRACE estimates than altimetry estimates, it is not clear why Schmidt believed that it was appropriate to “pin more weight” on GRACE estimates, other than he liked the answer better.”
      I know the date in the quote is 2008, but there is a 2014 paper and one in preprint showing the same findings.

      • chrism56

         /  June 18, 2018

        As usual Griff you do your normal spray tactics and ad hom arguments – on the libel level, though I doubt that Mr McIntyre would both with you. Do you agree with IGA adjustments or even understand what they are (and understand does not mean doing a cut and paste from Google, without and ability to paraphrase)? Do you know they have no effect on the level actually measured by tide gauges so are bogus when talking of flooding?
        And stop being a teenage girl with your acronyms.
        If you get the actual GRACE data, even with IGA, then you will see the mass loss is not what is claimed to be and has not accelerated since 2006?

      • Griff

         /  June 18, 2018

        I posted up to 2015 papers that disagree with zwally et al because you linked to it at some alt right site as proof Antarctica is not melting.

        You posted some rant on a blog.
        Steve on a blog is not equal to.

        Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
        Andrew Shepherd, Kate Briggs, Hannes Konrad, Malcolm McMillan, Ines Otosaka & Tom Slater
        NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA
        Erik Ivins, Nicole Schlegel, Alex Gardner, Johan Nilsson & David Wiese
        Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
        Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Geruo A, Yara Mohajerani, Jeremie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl & Tyler Sutterley
        Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
        Ben Smith & Ian Joughin
        Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
        Michiel van den Broeke, Brice Noel, Willem Jan van de Berg, Melchior van Wessem & Bert Wouters
        Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK
        Pippa Whitehouse & Grace Nield
        Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
        Gerhard Krinner, Hubert Gallee & Jeremie Mouginot
        Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre, Greenbelt, MD, USA
        Sophie Nowicki, Bryant Loomis & Scott Luthcke
        School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
        Tony Payne
        National Snow and Ice Data Centre, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
        Ted Scambos
        Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
        Cécile Agosta & Xavier Fettweis
        Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
        Andreas Ahlstrøm & Kristian K. Kjeldsen
        Department of Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
        Greg Babonis & Beata Csatho
        DTU Space, National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
        Valentina Barletta, Rene Forsberg, Shfaqat Khan, Louise Sandberg-Sørensen & Sebastian Simonsen
        Spatial Geophysics and Oceanography Studies Laboratory, Toulouse, France
        Alejandro Blazquez
        College of Marine Sciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
        Jennifer Bonin
        Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Centre, NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre, Greenbelt, MD, USA
        Richard Cullather
        Centre for Space Research, University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA
        Denis Felikson, Nadege Pie & Himanshu Save
        Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, UK
        Lin Gilbert & Alan Muir
        Institute for Planetary Geodesy, Technische Universitat Dresden, Dresden, Germany
        Andreas Groh, Martin Horwath & Ludwig Schröder
        Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
        Brian Gunter
        School of Geography, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK
        Edward Hanna
        Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
        Christopher Harig
        Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
        Veit Helm & Ingo Sasgen
        Institute of Astronomical and Physical Geodesy, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
        Alexander Horvath
        Centre for GeoGenetics, Natural History Museum of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
        Kristian K. Kjeldsen
        Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
        Peter Langen
        Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. Johns, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
        Benoit Lecavalier & Lev Tarasov
        Section of Seismology and Tectonophysics, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
        Daniele Melini
        Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Bergen, Norway
        Sebastian Mernild
        Faculty of Engineering and Science, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway
        Sebastian Mernild
        Direction of Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Programs, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile
        Sebastian Mernild
        School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
        Philip Moore
        isardSAT, Barcelona, Spain
        Gorka Moyano & Mark E. Pattle
        ENVEO, Innsbruck, Austria
        Thomas Nagler & Helmut Rott
        Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
        W. Richard Peltier
        Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
        Roelof Rietbroek
        Department of Space Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
        Ernst Schrama & Wouter van der Wal
        Department of Earth Science Education, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
        Ki-Weon Seo
        Institute of Physics, University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”, Urbino, Italy
        Giorgio Spada
        Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Centre for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
        Matthieu Talpe
        Geodetic Institute, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
        Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
        Who are the authors of the recent paper.
        Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017
        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0179-y

        As to your link
        I plainly see a curved data set .
        Acceleration.
        Picking an arbitrary date and saying it has not accelerated since then needs an explanation for the start date and some actual analyses of the data not drunken hand waving .

        • chrism56

           /  June 18, 2018

          I note that you didn’t explain IGA , just your usual copy and past stuff. The paper that you cut and pasted from says there has been an acceleration since 2012. Not the kink at 2006. Get the NASA data from their website and do a LMS fit. It hasn’t accelerated. Here is the data https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/data/get-data/monthly-mass-grids-land/
          The authors of the new study have done another adjustment. This is despite JPL specifically saying “If you download the GRACE-Tellus gridded data, no additional GIA correction is needed. We have already removed a GIA correction from the data.’
          And JPL also say ” This +/-20% probably over-estimates the uncertainty in northern Canada, where the deglaciation history is reasonably well-known; and it probably underestimates the uncertainty in Antarctica and Greenland, where the ice history is not as well-known.” So there is massive uncertainty in the IGA, a lot greater than the error bars on the data which is exactly the point that Mr McIntyre made.
          But that doesn’t fit your narrative, does it.

        • Griff

           /  June 19, 2018

          I note you are still blathering about some dribbling you get from Steve McIntyre.
          Steve is not an expert and has no published work in the field.
          In fact he has a prior record of shoddy work and misdirection in his limited publishing record .
          But that doesn’t fit your narrative, does it.

          Armwaving and some known idiots blog blather vrs the list of 80 odd experts above with a collaborative paper published in Nature.
          Hmmm thats really really hard .
          ROFL.

          By the way Crissy
          Blathering about the uncertainty of the applied adjustments and then claiming no more adjustments are justified.
          Can you see the hole in your reasoning?

          • chrism56

             /  June 19, 2018

            Steve McIntyre is published in peer reviewed journals on climate science mathematics (It is referenced in the IPCC papers so it must be as they don’t reference any thing that isn’t, do they) so that is your first thing you are wrong on. The second is even NASA admit there are large uncertainties in their IGA – not shown in the error bars. Without that adjustment, there is no ice loss. The altimeter readings which is the basis of Zwally’s work show the same icecap tops. If altimeters are used to show sea level rise, why can’t it measure ice surfaces, which are a lot less rough – or is it another case of we don’t like the answer so we won’t use the method? Third, despite JPL saying don’t adjust the post IGA data, the authors of the latest paper have done exactly that to get the answer they want. Does that make three strikes and you are out?
            And how are you getting on with the data analysis, or does your maths skills stop at being able to balance a cheque book?
            And you are back being a teenage girl – got your tongue poked out as well or is it just bad emojis against my name on your Facebook posts?

            • “Without that adjustment, there is no ice loss.”

              What if errors are understating the degree of ice loss?

              If you doubt the veracity of the bulk of scientific evidence then they could as easily be wrong either way couldn’t they?

            • chrism56

               /  June 19, 2018

              I posted a reply

            • chrism56

               /  June 19, 2018

              Pete – Yes, the errors could go just as much the other way. However, when you are trying to measure stuff by two different methods and you get significantly different answers, what do you do? Choosing the one that gives the answer you were expecting and ignoring the other is called confirmation bias, post hoc analysis or cherrypicking. There is no reconciliation of the data sets. That is what is the problem with so much science nowadays and why there are so many papers that are forced to be retracted. The FDA has refused to accept the practice because it is not science.
              With regards to the Antarctic ice, the satellites that do ice altimetry are the same ones that do the sea level. They do it by two different methods, laser and radar. Activist climate scientists quote the sea level data as that is showing a rise faster than tide gauges (after adjustments), (which is a lot harder and needs a lot of “smoothing” ) but don’t want it used for ice. They want to use a method that everyone acknowledges is a lot less accurate and needs a major adjustment. Look at this conference presentation to see the issues, old.esaconferencebureau.com/docs/default-source/cryosat-pdf/satellite-altimetry-of-greenland-and-antarctic-ice-sheets-40-years-of-advances-and-challenges.pdf?sfvrsn
              Note the comment on P24 – that sums up the issue. Why choose a significantly less accurate method?

            • Griff

               /  June 19, 2018

              Read the paper bud?
              I can tell you haven’t with your blathering and arm waving sourced from some nutters blog.
              Hint
              Here is who it is published by and what they are .
              http://imbie.org/about-the-project/

              The ice sheet mass balance inter-comparison exercise (IMBIE) was established in 2011 as a community effort to reconcile satellite measurements of ice sheet mass balance. IMBIE is a collaboration between scientists supported by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and contributes to assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IMBIE has led to improved confidence in the measurement of ice sheet mass balance and the associated global sea-level contribution. The improvements were achieved through combination of ice sheet imbalance estimates developed from the independent satellite techniques of altimetry, gravimetry and the input-output method. Going forwards, IMBIE provides a framework for assessing ice sheet mass balance, and has an explicit aim to widen participation to enable the entire scientific community to become involved.

              Isn’t that strange chrism56
              Your argument is its based only on Grace .
              The paper actually reconciles all three methods to get its result.

              Your sources fed you a load of crap and you have made a first class arse of your self .

              Shite pissed my self with laughter.

            • chrism56

               /  June 19, 2018

              And yes I did read the paper as well as the references, unlike you Griff.
              Noted this; “Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). GIA of the solid Earth is an important contributor to the signals observed by satellite gravimetry and, to a lesser extent, satellite altimetry (30). The GIA must therefore be considered when estimating ice-sheet mass balance with either technique. In Antarctica, the use of GIA models has in practice introduced considerable uncertainty (up to 130 Gt year−1) into ice-sheet mass balance estimates derived from satellite gravimetry (31–33”
              Now go back to your My Little Ponies Facebook where you are among equals

            • Griff

               /  June 19, 2018

              Lets see .

              Pete – Yes, the errors could go just as much the other way. However, when you are trying to measure stuff by two different methods and you get significantly different answers, what do you do? Choosing the one that gives the answer you were expecting and ignoring the other is called confirmation bias, post hoc analysis or cherrypicking. There is no reconciliation of the data sets.

              I do so love wingnut projection.

              Pull on your big boy pants and retract all your conspiracy gibbering sonny. The entire point of Sheperd-et-al-2018 “Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017” is to reconcile all three methods to understand whats happening .

            • Griff

               /  June 19, 2018

              As to this

              However, when you are trying to measure stuff by two different methods and you get significantly different answers, what do you do? Choosing the one that gives the answer you were expecting and ignoring the other is called confirmation bias, post hoc analysis or cherrypicking.

              When it comes to global warming we have many different lines of converging evidence.

              We know from observations Antarctica ice melt is speeding up.

              From retreating grounding lines
              https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014GL060140

              We measure the grounding line retreat of glaciers draining the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica using Earth Remote Sensing (ERS‐1/2) satellite radar interferometry from 1992 to 2011. Pine Island Glacier retreated 31 km at its center, with most retreat in 2005–2009 when the glacier ungrounded from its ice plain. Thwaites Glacier retreated 14 km along its fast flow core and 1 to 9 km along the sides. Haynes Glacier retreated 10 km along its flanks. Smith/Kohler glaciers retreated the most, 35 km along its ice plain, and its ice shelf pinning points are vanishing. These rapid retreats proceed along regions of retrograde bed elevation mapped at a high spatial resolution using a mass conservation technique that removes residual ambiguities from prior mappings. Upstream of the 2011 grounding line positions, we find no major bed obstacle that would prevent the glaciers from further retreat and draw down the entire basin.

              To increasing velocity.
              https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22765-0

              We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr−1) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.

              There are many other lines of evidence that antarctic ice is under retreat from the effects of a warming planet . If one data set fails to confirm to what we already know it is examined so as to discover why.

              As with UHA satellites microwave brightness derived temperature measurements those in Denial will glom on to one set of data in the huge puzzle and ignore all the other interlaced information that suggests their cherry picked data set is probably the outlying method that has accuracy issues. Zwally et al is just such a data set ripe for Cherry Picking as chrism56 sources have . Criss spent days pushing a cherry picked method from the denial echochmber and has failed to discover why it is problematic.

              I will leave with this .
              https://www.nature.com/news/gains-in-antarctic-ice-might-offset-losses-1.18486
              Zwally notes. “I know some of the climate deniers will jump on this, and say this means we don’t have to worry as much as some people have been making out,” he says. “It should not take away from the concern about climate warming.” As global temperatures rise, Antarctica is expected to contribute more to sea-level rise, though when exactly that effect will kick in, and to what extent, remains unclear.

          • Griff

             /  June 19, 2018

            .

            “Steve McIntyre is published in peer reviewed journals on climate science” .

            Well duh
            Why do you think I linked to ?
            https://deepclimate.org/2010/11/16/replication-and-due-diligence-wegman-style/
            It gives his fraudulent programming method and even a list of papers that trash his.

            .

            The second is even NASA admit there are large uncertainties in their IGA.

            And the paper uses more recent estimates of IGA .

            .

            The altimeter readings which is the basis of Zwally’s work show the same icecap tops. If altimeters are used to show sea level rise, why can’t it measure ice surfaces, which are a lot less rough .

            What Zwally was trying to measure is the point at where snow turns to ice not the surface .

            Third, despite JPL saying don’t adjust the post IGA data, the authors of the latest paper have done exactly that to get the answer they want

            Here we have it.
            All those scientists and the organizations they work for along with Nature the journal and its editors involved in fraud to doctor results because Steve on a blog says so.
            ROFL.
            If it helps.
            Imagine a teen age girl pissing her self laughing at your whacky conspiracy gibbering .

    • Griff

       /  June 18, 2018

      Have you ever thought your source is the fraud ?

      Here is a range of results for Antarctic ice mass balance .

      Your sources focus on the one outlying result and ignore its not supported by many others papers.
      http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/11/so-what-is-really-happening-in-antarctica/
      As to climate fraudit
      Its proprietor was long ago found to be the fraud manipulating data to get preconceived results.Here is a careful exposure of his past dishonesty in making false claims based on statistical mathderbation.
      https://deepclimate.org/2010/11/16/replication-and-due-diligence-wegman-style/

      • Corky

         /  June 18, 2018

        Findings seem a little out of date there, Griffy. I wouldn’t throw accusation of fraud around if I was you. That will open you up to body shot after body shot from someone who still has the will to prove man made climate change is a fraud.

        • Gezza

           /  June 18, 2018

          Who were you thinking of there?

        • Griff

           /  June 18, 2018

          ROFL
          That would make a change from the normal snowflake whining that Griff called me a gibbering nutter Corky.

          Maybe I should go back to the old byline.
          Pulling the wings off wingnuts* .

          *

          Being a wingnut requires a particularly paranoid worldview, teetering on the edge of or falling wholesale into tinfoil hat territory, as wingnuttery causes the victim to refuse to accept any source of information that doesn’t back up their prejudices (essentially, wingnuts are almost always authoritarian as well as being politically right-wing). Constant gibbering about the “liberal media” as well as a slavish devotion to cognitive dissonance, conspiracy theories, global warming denialism, psychological projection, and crackpot theories of economics (e.g. Austrian school, Social Credit) are also, if not required, at the very least nearly universal symptoms. This is all usually accompanied by a side dish of a severe persecution complex. Not all wingnuts are racists, misogynists, homophobes, or transphobes, though many racists, misogynists, homophobes, and transphobes are also wingnuts.

          https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Wingnut
          .

          • Corky

             /  June 18, 2018

            That’s also a little old hat, Griffy.

            ”Maybe I should go back to the old byline.”

            No, of course not. Just find a study stamped..well, even 2017. That way wingnut wont be a self parody..

          • Griff

             /  June 18, 2018

            In laymans terms.

            ttps://www.nasa.gov/press-release/ramp-up-in-antarctic-ice-loss-speeds-sea-level-rise
            Ramp-Up in Antarctic Ice Loss Speeds Sea Level Rise

            Ice losses from Antarctica have tripled since 2012, increasing global sea levels by 0.12 inch (3 millimeters) in that timeframe alone, according to a major new international climate assessment funded by NASA and ESA (European Space Agency).

            According to the study, ice losses from Antarctica are causing sea levels to rise faster today than at any time in the past 25 years. Results of the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) were published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

            “This is the most robust study of the ice mass balance of Antarctica to date,” said assessment team co-lead Erik Ivins at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “It covers a longer period than our 2012 IMBIE study, has a larger pool of participants, and incorporates refinements in our observing capability and an improved ability to assess uncertainties.”

            This latest IMBIE is the most complete assessment of Antarctic ice mass changes to date, combining 24 satellite surveys of Antarctica and involving 80 scientists from 42 international organizations.

            The team looked at the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2017 and found ice losses from Antarctica raised global sea levels by 0.3 inches (7.6 millimeters), with a sharp uptick in ice loss in recent years. They attribute the threefold increase in ice loss from the continent since 2012 to a combination of increased rates of ice melt in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, and reduced growth of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

            Prior to 2012, ice was lost at a steady rate of about 83.8 billion tons (76 billion metric tons) per year, contributing about 0.008 inches (0.2 millimeters) a year to sea level rise. Since 2012, the amount of ice loss per year has tripled to 241.4 billion tons (219 billion metric tonnes) – equivalent to about 0.02 inches per year (0.6 millimeters) of sea level rise.

            West Antarctica experienced the greatest recent change, with ice loss rising from 58.4 billion tons (53 billion metric tons) per year in the 1990s, to 175.3 billion tons (159 billion metric tons) a year since 2012. Most of this loss came from the huge Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, which are retreating rapidly due to ocean-induced melting.

            At the northern tip of the continent, ice-shelf collapse at the Antarctic Peninsula has driven an increase of 27.6 billion tons (25 billion metric tons) in ice loss per year since the early 2000s. Meanwhile, the team found the East Antarctic ice sheet has remained relatively balanced during the past 25 years, gaining an average of 5.5 billion tons (5 billion metric tons) of ice per year.

            Antarctica’s potential contribution to global sea level rise from its land-held ice is almost 7.5 times greater than all other sources of land-held ice in the world combined. The continent stores enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by 190 feet (58 meters), if it were to melt entirely. Knowing how much ice it’s losing is key to understanding the impacts of climate change now and its pace in the future.

            Scientific Paper.
            https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0179-y

            The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992–2017 (5 ± 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.

  2. Gezza

     /  June 18, 2018

    For the past three years Nimarota has lived next to a Housing New Zealand (HNZ) house in Cannons Creek, Porirua, that she says is a magnet for Mongrel Mob affiliates “from Hastings to Porirua” who plague the neighbourhood with suspicious activity, dangerous dogs, thundering cars, drug dealing, threats and intimidation.

    Nimarota is trying to make her street a better place, but she is at her wit’s end. She says police are scared and authorities have repeatedly failed to act on problems in the suburban Porirua state housing block.

    “The entire neighbourhood is up against one neighbour. We’re not getting the help from the authorities, Housing New Zealand and the police,” she said. “Housing New Zealand said it’s going to take a while, the police said it’s going to take a while. How long do we need to wait until someone gets killed?”

    But she wondered if the current crop of rookie cops were up to the task after recent criticism that new millennial recruits being trained were too soft. Her faith was undermined in police, who were often too scared to get out of their patrol cars and confront troublemakers, she said. “I feel like I’m wasting my time. I’m getting nowhere, nowhere, nowhere.”

    During a select committee hearing, HNZ chief executive Andrew McKenzie said the objective was to keep tenants in their homes if at all possible, and not to simply transfer the problem. Judith Collins asked if HNZ sometimes moved “nice neighbours” on instead of the anti-social tenants. McKenzie said this sometimes was the best option.
    More…
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/104504975/the-neighbourhood-support-volunteer-fighting-to-clean-up-one-of-nzs-toughest-streets

    • Pickled Possum

       /  June 18, 2018

      Communities will end up getting together and coming up with solutions that work. These gang members should get some manners when they are away from their homes. Sometimes the reality of how well immigration works in NZ, gives those rural gang members a shock. Some see the reality of Winstons worse fears coming true. It would be a really hard kaupapa to create some empathy between some groups mentioned in your very informative post Gez.☺

      • Gezza

         /  June 18, 2018

        I was told by a local car salesman down here the Wellington branch of the Mongies among their other activities run a lucrative steal-to-order high-end stolen car business, and that you can buy a certain innocuous “company” window sticker that tells car thieves don’t touch this one or else. The only problem is you have to pay annually for this continued security service.

        • Gezza

           /  June 18, 2018

          Could well be right. Wellington folk generally are more sophisticated than the average city residents elsewhere – look at Lurch and me, for example. So it’s probably no surprise the gangs are too.

    • NOEL

       /  June 18, 2018

      Appears there needs to be another clause in the tenancy agreement. “Been disrescptble to your neighbours will be treated as an unlawful act.”

      • NOEL

         /  June 18, 2018

        Just remembered a guy I worked with who moved three times because an HCNZ property was let to gang affiliates. Both times he watched the community dynamic change for the worse.
        Last house he bought was in an older established area with no HCNZ dwellings.

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  June 18, 2018

          There are times when it’s not nimbyism, it’s common sense. He’d have been an idiot to end up with a house that had plummeted in value !

  3. lurcher1948

     /  June 18, 2018

    Bring on coal mining says Duncan Garner and the temporary leader of the opposition what’s his name.And the “poll” backs them and they read an email out supporting destroying the conservation estate.Duncan the voice of national has spoken.

    • lurcher1948

       /  June 18, 2018

      There’s time for Duncan to ring crusher Collins up for her thoughts on coal mining as Duncan and crusher are as close together as 2 peas in a pod,ring her Duncan

      • Gezza

         /  June 18, 2018

        Mike Hosking makes the case for the proposition that every other life form on the planet would be far better off without humans.
        https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12072746

        • MaureenW

           /  June 18, 2018

          Isn’t that the truth. While there are many great and wonderful individuals, collectively the species is fucked.

        • Corky

           /  June 18, 2018

          They already are. Humans in Aotearoa come second to snails and ferns.

          • Gezza

             /  June 18, 2018

            I thought there were still housing developments inching ahead?

      • Corky

         /  June 18, 2018

        Duncan is crawling, Lurchy. He wants to be the ‘go to’ guy in the media when Crusher assumes the roll of Prime Minister post the 2020 election.

  4. PDB

     /  June 18, 2018

    What happens when you promise the earth but your budget has no money (re: the ‘fiscal hole’) for basic things like public service pay increases?

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/104785300/thousands-of-government-department-employees-to-vote-on-coordinated-strike-action

    Ardern talking in one of the election debates with Bill English about the likelihood of nationwide strike action under a Labour-led govt infamously said “not on my watch” – will that come back and bite her on the bum?

    • Gezza

       /  June 18, 2018

      Yes.

      • PDB

         /  June 18, 2018

        She has already blown her pre-election promise of not lying many times over…….Re: Oil and gas announcement:

        RNZ: “However, Jacinda Ardern said it was all done by the book and the minister had met with oil industry representatives”.

        Ardern: “”The minister was very familiar, given the number of times she’d met with them over their view on this issue more generally and of course we flagged well before the election that we didn’t see a future for oil and gas exploration in New Zealand.”

        RNZ September 2017: “Greenpeace has slammed Labour leader Jacinda Ardern for refusing to rule out new deep sea oil drilling, despite comparing climate change to our nuclear-free moment a few weeks ago.”

        ““Jacinda’s comments make no sense. She says she won’t rule out new deep sea oil drilling because she wants to make sure we have a ‘just-transition’”

        “During the interview, Ardern also refused to rule out an end to new coal mines – the dirtiest fuel on the planet – and advocated a transition to gas, another fossil fuel.”

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  June 18, 2018

          I wonder if the heating allowance will be quietly dropped as being too expensive.

  5. Gezza

     /  June 18, 2018

    Soapy Soper:

    New Zealand First dominates this Parliament and you only have to look at the coalition demands if you have any doubt about it. Peters knew the risk he was taking for his beloved party with the coalition scourge, where small parties are swallowed up by the big player. Only this time you could be forgiven for thinking the 7 per cent party was actually 77 per cent.

    The Peters’ billion dollar patronage of Foreign Affairs, money he wanted to give them the last time he had the job, but the election intervened. The winner takes the booty, as Shane Jones declared, with the $3 billion Provincial Growth Fund where the party wants to build its vote, particularly in Northland where so far most of the money’s gone.

    And the dollop of dollars for pretty race horses courtesy of the industry’s minister, Winston Peters.

    The outburst last week by Jones, calling for Fonterra chairman John Wilson to catch the next cab out of town, after a few months back telling the Air New Zealand chairman and chief executive to do the same thing, shows they can say what they like and get away with it. It’s simply not good enough for Jacinda Ardern to say after his latest lambaste that he was speaking personally. As a Cabinet Minister he’s poking his nose in somebody’s else’s business and isn’t entitled to personal views in such circumstances.

    Behind the Beehive bomb shelter thick, concrete walls Peters is the commander in chief. All press releases are run through his office and legislation gets the once over before it’s introduced to the House. The raft of appointments that have been, and are being made by the Government, gets the once over from the representatives of the 7 per cent, with some things being held up to extract the best political advantage from them.

    In fairness the Greens also get a squizz at stuff that’s about to go public but on the rare occasion they object, they’re scoffed at especially if it’s been given the green light from the real coalition cobbers.
    More … (But not much more)
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12072729

    • PDB

       /  June 18, 2018

      Pretty much sums up the situation. During negotiations obviously one team was conceding little to Winston whilst the others sold their grandmother in order to become govt.

      Winston was always going to go Ardern over English because Ardern is not a leader (and never really wanted to be one), has zero experience of being in govt let alone running one, and Winston can do as he pleases knowing Ardern will let him & in fact make his excuses for him.

    • sorethumb

       /  June 18, 2018

      From The Landlord Says: [2008]
      Meanwhile the National Party released its immigration policy. You may wonder what this means for the property market. It is clear from research that immigration is one of the key drivers of house price growth. The logic is simple. If you import more people into the country, then you need more houses. Supply and demand means that prices are then pushed up, this is particularly so in Auckland.
      While the latest immigration numbers show the number of people coming into New Zealand is starting to rise, the Nat’s policy looks like it wants to increase immigration levels even further. (Although it is unclear what sort of number they are targeting.)
      This policy is, arguably, a plus for people who want house prices to rise. (But may be not so good for first home owners wanting to buy.)
      My guess has always been that property investors lean heavily towards the right rather than the left. (This was made clear in an email newsletter I saw from one developer this week.)
      http://imgbox.com/hPbuHrAE

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  June 18, 2018

        My guess has always been that property investors lean heavily towards the right rather than the left.

        In other words, they are rational and have a clue.

        • sorethumb

           /  June 18, 2018

          But that’s not the point. The point is in the 1970’s National were New Zealand First. Labour became the first globalist party and National followed. The whole political system (including the media) became globalist and nationalists were marginalised (and without resources). As Paul Spoonley gloats “it’s very lonely on the right”. National is now the party of the property sector.

    • Blazer

       /  June 18, 2018

      typical National policy…try and scare people with a beat up story….offer the fix….and then do the…opposite.

  6. Gezza

     /  June 18, 2018

    YNZ POSTER SURVEY

    In your opinion, at the present time, will Simon Bridges still be National’s leader for the 2020 election.

    Absolutely. Top bloke. Voice like an angel – uptick

    Snowflake’s chance in hell – downtick.

    • Gezza

       /  June 18, 2018

      That’s been up for several hours now. Simon’s obviously not hitting the mark here.

      • Gezza

         /  June 18, 2018

        Oops – look like he’s read it now.

  7. sorethumb

     /  June 18, 2018

    • Zedd

       /  June 18, 2018

      instead of mr jones trying to grow onebillion trees, if they planted 10bil hemp stalks & used it to make biofuel, that would be better.. more carbon neutral.. just saying. fossil fuels are the main issue here.. & b-s

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  June 18, 2018

        They could make nice things from the leaves (or whatever’s used for cloth) too.

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  June 18, 2018

          PDT, get a grip on yourself ! You are becoming obsessive over this witless downticking. If it’s that important to you, you might like consider taking up a hobby like stamp collecting.

          • Gezza

             /  June 18, 2018

            Probably already has a grip on himself. That’s his problem.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  June 18, 2018

              (collapses larfing) 😀 😀 😀

  8. Zedd

     /  June 18, 2018

    is Winstin P.M.. yet ?

    • Gezza

       /  June 18, 2018

      What? Has Jacinda shot in to the maternity unit?

      • Zedd

         /  June 18, 2018

        you tell me we will both know…

        • Gezza

           /  June 18, 2018

          Well according to RNZ this morning Winston is chairing Cabinet but she’s still PM until there’s a bit of downward pressue.

      • Gezza

         /  June 18, 2018

        Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is entering the first day past her due date but may have to wait a week before labour is induced. Ardern previously said she was keen to get induced if her baby did not arrive on time. And with only six-weeks of maternity leave planned, time is of the essence. Auckland region obstetrician Dr Sue Belgrave said exactly when labour could be induced varied, but in most places around the world it was one to two weeks past the due date.

        “I heard that curries, walking on kerbs, eating pineapple [help induce labour],” Ardern said “I thought I’d do them all at once. So if you see me walking through Sandringham with a pineapple under my arm and a take-out curry … that’s exactly what’s going on.”

        Seems to be the latest news so far today

        More ….
        https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12072809

    • Gezza

       /  June 18, 2018

      With Jacinda Ardern is Auckland for the pending arrival of her baby, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters will head the weekly post-Cabinet press conference. Peters, who will take over as acting prime minister when Ardern goes into hospital, chaired Monday’s Cabinet meeting.

      The weekly post-Cabinet press conference is a chance for the prime minister, or in this case the deputy prime minister, to run through the week’s major events, any notable decisions made during the weekly Cabinet meeting, and respond to media questions.

      Monday also marked nurses’ and midwives’ decision to reject the latest DHB offer, taking them one step closer to possible strike action next month.

      The press conference is due to start at 4pm on Monday
      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/104800761/winston-peters-in-the-hot-seat-as-nurses-get-a-step-closer-to-strike

      Does anyone whether these Monday Post-Cabinet Press Conferences are shown live, or posted anywhere for viewing afterwards?

      • Gezza

         /  June 18, 2018

        The linked article above has been updated to now include a 26 minute video of Peters doing his first Post-Cabinet presser.

        • Gezza

           /  June 18, 2018

          Gawd! o_O Mind you a lot of the journo’s questions are pathetic too. :/

  9. lurcher1948

     /  June 18, 2018

    A knuckle dragging right wing poster said on andrew dickens right wing hate feast newstalkZB if NURSES are not happy with shit wages they know where the airport is???

    • Corky

       /  June 18, 2018

      And what did the other 99% of callers say, Lurchy?

      • Corky

         /  June 18, 2018

        Apart from the one that said NZ nurses international reputation has diminished due to poorer training involving too much cultural correctness. I can vouch for that.

        • Gezza

           /  June 18, 2018

          If you can vouch for that can you post a link to something confirming NZ nurses international reputation has diminished due to poorer training involving too much cultural correctness?

          • Corky

             /  June 18, 2018

            No, I can vouch for the inordinate time spent on cultural correctness My fault for not being clearer..

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  June 18, 2018

              That was true a while ago, and could well still be so. I remember complaints being made about it, as so much time was being taken up by it.

            • Corky

               /  June 18, 2018

              I couldn’t find the Holmes interview with a trainee nurse who basically told the kaumatua to stick his PC…she was off to Australia to finish her training.

              Maori do have some cultural requirements that can be taught in no time. For instance, a simple blessing of the room where a person has died to stop them lingering. You don’t need a three week course on the Treaty to do that- just a Maori priest.

              This cultural stuff seems to be getting worse with white privilege now being mentioned with regard to nursing in Australia.

  10. Gezza

     /  June 18, 2018

    Nurses’ union rejects DHB pay offer, seeks mediation

    NZNO chief executive Memo Musa said strike action was the last resort, but could still happen. The 29,500 NZNO members had earlier voted to strike for two days in July – dependent on results for the new collective agreement offer.

    “Patient safety is paramount. We have had several meetings with DHB representatives to begin preparation to ensure patient safety.” The strikes were scheduled for July 5 and 12, to run for 24 hours from 7am. The decision was made based on a 30-day ballot that went out to NZNO members on April 23.

    The last nurses’ strike was in 1989.

    The DHBs are scheduled to hold a press conference about 2.30pm in Wellington.

    MINISTER REACTS
    Health Minister Dr David Clark said he was disappointed that nurses voted against the half-billion dollar offer, what he says is the largest made to nurses in more than a decade. “Nurses are a vital part of our health workforce and clearly feel they have been undervalued over the last nine years,” Clark said in a statement. [Welcome to the real world, David]

    “Their frustration is understandable. This offer goes a long way to address their pay and staffing concerns, but you cannot fix nine years of underfunding in one pay round. The deal that’s been rejected today is the largest nurses and midwives have been offered since their historic pay jolt 14 years ago under the last Labour-led government.”

    Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson said for nurses to reject an offer of 9 per cent over 15 months “reveals how undervalued they feel after nine years squeezing by National. We support their call for urgent mediation.”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/104795905/nurses-union-to-announce-result-of-latest-pay-offer-from-dhbs

  11. Corky

     /  June 18, 2018

    Just been reading Tommy Robinson’s letter over at the Whalers. Damn sad. I didn’t realise he had been in jail before, and had taken a beating from Muslims. Tommy reckons he was only moved to solitary this time around because of Lord Pearson’s comments.

    So, in a nutshell. Why is this chap in jail? He is in jail because Britain allowed a vicious, barbaric alien culture into its mist. A culture that made it clear what it thought of the host country. The British government is now powerless to protect its public. So when a chap like Tommy takes the time to stand up to these Muslim pricks, the government can’t stand the embarrassing light shone upon its ineptitude.

    • Gezza

       /  June 18, 2018

      Hang on – I’ll hold me nose & I’ll go and have a look.

      • Corky

         /  June 18, 2018

        You shouldn’t torture yourself, Gezza. Although I know what you mean. The few times I have visited The Standard has reminded me of a school trip down a sewer to see where all the poop went.

        Of course, now days such a trip would be unthinkable…thanks to people …well, people like those at The Standard..

    • Gezza

       /  June 18, 2018

      Well, it’s quite long 4 pages of handwriting and there might be spellos that upset me (you know how sensitive I am) – but he says this chap reads it out in this video so I’ll have a listen and anyone else who wants to can too.

      • Gezza

         /  June 18, 2018

        He thanks Alex Jones at Infowars. Not sure that’s wise – still, I suppose he’s happy to get his message out to anybody including the fruit loops.

        I have some sympathy for this guy. I think the problem he’s talking about is real and it’s not going to go away. Hope his appeal succeeds. Seems to me the sentence was excessive.

  12. Gezza

     /  June 18, 2018

  13. PartisanZ

     /  June 18, 2018

    Another peace offering for Corky & Sorethumb – New Age Bullshit Generator ….

    http://sebpearce.com/bullshit/

    • Corky

       /  June 18, 2018

      Give me the narrative so I know what’s upset you.

      • PartisanZ

         /  June 18, 2018

        Nah … I just thought you’d enjoy it …

        • Corky

           /  June 18, 2018

          OK, so what are you implying?

          • PartisanZ

             /  June 18, 2018

            Oh FFS … I’m implying you might enjoy it …

            See below …

            • Corky

               /  June 18, 2018

              Calm down, Parti. Can I help it if Kelvin Davis makes clangers? I have deciphered that word mush for you. Enjoy.

    • Gezza

       /  June 18, 2018

      It’s brilliant. This is the second one generated.

      Gratitude is a constant.
      To go along the mission is to become one with it. The solar system is buzzing with vibrations.

      We can no longer afford to live with pain. The transmission of balance is now happening worldwide. The future will be a karmic deepening of potential. Imagine a blossoming of what could be.

      Consciousness consists of chaos-driven reactions of quantum energy. “Quantum” means an invocation of the transformative. Serenity is the truth of beauty, and of us. We exist as ultrasonic energy.

      We are at a crossroads of nature and suffering. Throughout history, humans have been interacting with the quantum cycle via supercharged electrons. We are in the midst of an eternal blossoming of inspiration that will remove the barriers to the nexus itself.

      You and I are mystics of the dreamtime. We must learn how to lead mystical lives in the face of dogma. It is time to take peace to the next level. We must inspire ourselves and change others.

      We vibrate, we exist, we are reborn. This life is nothing short of an evolving reimagining of ancient being. Today, science tells us that the essence of nature is healing.

      • Corky

         /  June 18, 2018

        Crikey, that’s cool. What does it say?

        • Gezza

           /  June 18, 2018

          Sorry – our posts crossed. See below.

        • PartisanZ

           /  June 18, 2018

          Brilliant eh?

          My gift to you Corky …

      • Gezza

         /  June 18, 2018

        It unpacks Deepak – or chops up Chopra

        • Corky

           /  June 18, 2018

          Ok, lets decipher this stuff.

          Practicing gratitude changes your life in some unfathomable way. It’s unexplainable. You do and see the results. The universe takes a more benign stance with you. People who do you wrong seem to get their comeuppance without any invention on your part.

          Hence why you see me post my gratitude, now and again, for living in this glorious country…warts and all.

          The solar system is indeed buzzing with vibration and innumerable intersecting bands of energy. Space is not empty.

          ”We can no longer afford to live with pain. The transmission of balance is now happening worldwide. The future will be a karmic deepening of potential. Imagine a blossoming of what could be.”

          That’s what the Greens are telling us….and National wants to be part of that.

          ”Consciousness consists of chaos-driven reactions of quantum energy. ”

          Or as Objectivists and occultists say- ”Consciousness is.” It is undefinable or knowable. We are just units of ‘Consciousness,’ nothing more.

          ‘We are at a crossroads of nature and suffering.”

          That’s what Climate Change Belivers tell us.

          ”Throughout history, humans have been interacting with the quantum cycle via supercharged electrons.”

          Interacting with cosmic consciousness via intent, to create our world.

          ”We are in the midst of an eternal blossoming of inspiration that will remove the barriers to the nexus itself.”

          Or as the hippies say…The Age Of Aquarius..dude!.

          ”You and I are mystics of the dreamtime. ”

          That’s what Aborigines, Shamans and George Gudijeff tell us. I dream at night too. So there might be something to this.

          ”We vibrate, we exist, we are reborn. This life is nothing short of an evolving re imagining of ancient being.”

          Much of the world believes in reincarnation, we may be in the minority.

          • Gezza

             /  June 18, 2018

            Exactly. So we don’t even need to read Deepak. Or anybody. This will do the job just as well and a lot more cheaply. Just run that algorithm every day for more profundities.

          • PartisanZ

             /  June 18, 2018

            Corky … that’s amazing … Go straight to ‘Guru’ …

            • Corky

               /  June 18, 2018

              Thanks. Now, how do I make a buck?

            • Gezza

               /  June 18, 2018

              Hands and feet on the floor at the same time & suddenly arch your back.

    • PartisanZ

       /  June 19, 2018

      Not exactly … No.

      Were Monbiot opining on the U.S. Constitution you might have a case, but the drafters of that document envisaged it being amended by future generations – perhaps relatively easily – rather than having a ‘Sunset Clause’ and being ‘renegotiated’ and rewritten …

      Te Tiriti o Waitangi is not an FTA between nations …

      Your comparison is odious.

      Some excellent commentary by Monbiot nonetheless about so-called ‘democracy’, his point essentially being, “That the only defender of popular sovereignty in this case is an odious demagogue illustrates the corruption of 21st-century liberal democracy.”

      Not how wonderful the demagogue is, but how corrupt the democracy is.

      For instance, the very well researched and widely consulted Matike Mai Aotearoa Report concluded that the constitutionality problem in Aotearoa NZ is not Te Tiriti o Waitangi at all, but the failure of Westminster Parliamentary (so-called) ‘democracy’ to uphold and implement the Treaty for both parties … hapu iwi Maori and The Crown …