Stuff repeats Herald mistake on foreign buyers

Yesterday NZ Herald:  It’s not 3% – ASB analysis suggests up to a fifth of properties sold to non-residents

Analysis from ASB has found that Statistics New Zealand’s estimate that non-citizens accounted for only 3 per cent of house purchases is well short.

Economists from the bank say the figure more likely sits between 11 and 21 per cent.

Examining transfers or purchases of New Zealand property, Mark Smith and Nick Tuffley analysed the information and reached different conclusions to those released by Statistics NZ.

“The estimates suggest that non-resident purchases made up around 3 per cent of nationwide house purchases over the March 2018 year. This was in a similar ballpark to previously published figures. However, anywhere from 11 per cent to 21 per cent of reported purchases over that period involved a non-NZ citizen, with the proportion considerably higher for some areas, particularly Auckland and Queenstown,” they wrote in their latest Economic Note.

This was criticised on Twitter:

Going deeper into the economic note, there is a strong sense that the reason non-residents and non-citizens are getting mixed up is because the authors of this report believe that citizens have more of a right to own property than non-citizens, even those who are resident here.

Hey , resident non-citizens who buy houses so they can live somewhere are not the same as the “overseas investors” that you’re worried about. Conflating them is not just misleading, but kinda dangerous eh?

ASB did the analysis, published an economic note/report, and then gave it to all the media agencies, who are basically just quoting what it says in the report. So pretty sure the fault lies with ASB’s economists.

ASB conflated them. The distinction matters because there are people who live in this country who are non-citizens, but they are definitely residents and shouldn’t be lumped into “foreign investor”

I know someone who was a permanent resident for over thirty years, part owning four houses, before becoming a citizen.

The Herald have since changed the headline to “sold to non-citizens”.

But today Stuff make the same mistake, if not worse: As many as one in five house buyers in NZ may be foreign

Restrictions on foreigners buying New Zealand property will depress prices, one economist says – and the effect may be greater than some have predicted.

The Overseas Investment Amendment Bill is working its way to becoming law.

But while official statistics and anecdotal evidence from the real estate industry indicate only 3 per cent of sales are to overseas buyers, ASB senior economist Mark Smith at ASB said that number might be deceptively low.

He said another 8 per cent of sales were attributable to resident visa-holders who were not citizens, such as people who had newly migrated.

And such as people who migrated years ago, and decades ago.

Another 10 per cent were corporate entities, for which ownership information is not available.

If there is no information then no assumptions can be made about nationality.

He said anything from 11 per cent to 21 per cent of purchases in the March 2018 involved a non-New Zealand citizen.

Actually that should be “anything from 3 per cent to 21 per cent of purchases in the March 2018 involved a non-New Zealand citizen”.

But it is unlikely to be anywhere near 21%. And permanent residents are likely to be a significant portion of 3-11%.

This is poor analysis from the ASB and very poor reporting from the Herald and Stuff.

 

29 Comments

  1. Gerrit

     /  June 28, 2018

    Cant find the recording but the ASB bank economist was back tracking so fast on Larry Williams ZB show that he left skid marks on the floor.

    Again lazy journalism from the MSM. Promotion of false facts to suit an agenda.

    • Blazer

       /  June 28, 2018

      what’s the banks…agenda?

      • Trevors_Elbow

         /  June 28, 2018

        staying sweet with the current government to head off any overflow from the Aussie Bank Commission…. pretty obvious really

    • High Flying Duck

       /  June 28, 2018

      I heard that interview – Nick Tuffley I think.
      He basically threw in the towel at the first question and spent the rest of the interview conceding the research was patently misleading and didn’t show what the headlines were reporting at all.

  2. George

     /  June 28, 2018

    I repeat.
    Fake news.
    A broken media
    Anything from the ‘official’ news sources should be viewed with suspicion.

    • Kitty Catkin

       /  June 28, 2018

      It must be true, I read it in the paper ! 😀

  3. duperez

     /  June 28, 2018

    “If there is no information then no assumptions can be made about nationality.”

    Making assumptions without facts and no information, then making condemnations based on those is just the way the world works.

    It is likely that those who act in such a way demand ‘the media’ have and maintain standards higher than those.

  4. Blazer

     /  June 28, 2018

    my non scientific analysis has it over 50% in certain Auckland suburbs.
    However you slice it and dice it….believing its 3% ,is laughable.

    • High Flying Duck

       /  June 28, 2018

      Non-scientific – sums up all your views very nicely.

      • Blazer

         /  June 28, 2018

        as oppposed to…’we don’t have(want)the…data.
        Vancouver have done the analysis…there is a direct and relevant comparison .

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  June 28, 2018

          Classic B, totally and shamelessly contradicting the known facts.

          • Blazer

             /  June 28, 2018

            the known ‘facts’…..!..forgetting the chasm of unknown…unknowns.

        • High Flying Duck

           /  June 28, 2018

          If anything the ASB data shows how the perception arose. A large number of resident non-citizens have bought property – although still well below the figures quoted by Twyford prior to the election.
          The ASB economist agreed the official stats were correct and that the ASB report related to people living in NZ buying property.

    • Im sorry Blazer but flawed as the ASB analysis and Herald/Stuff reporting is your word of mouth stories are just imaginary. Zero substantiation.

      • Blazer

         /  June 28, 2018

        well look at the Vancouver data….good comparison…been to an Auckland auction in the last 5 years?

    • Gerrit

       /  June 28, 2018

      So you can tell NZL nationality by the racial differences in people? Wow.

      Bet the ancestors of the Chinese 1870 era gold miners will be pleased to see you use your incredible insight…to label them “foreign buyers”.

      Best not come to deepest Manurewa and see those all those indian owned houses..must be foreign buyers as well?

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  June 28, 2018

        My husband was from England, so our house was bought by a foreign buyer, as were my parents’ and stepfather’s houses.

  5. Trevors_Elbow

     /  June 28, 2018

    Labour and NZF have been xenophodia campaigns under the covers, well NZF not so under the covers, for a number of years now… every now and then it pops over the parapet: “chinese sounding names” anyone??

    Banks are parasitic in some sense and spend a lot of effort and money staying on side with which ever political party holds sway over the apparatus of Government

    ASB have just gone to far with these and drawn blow back…

    • Kitty Catkin

       /  June 28, 2018

      Names like Lee, Ching and Ling…the first is Chinese as well as being a Romany name (many gypsies are called Lee), the second is English and the third Cornish…

  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  June 28, 2018

    If anyone believes these were journalistic mistakes rather than deliberate spin I have a bridge to sell you.

    • duperez

       /  June 28, 2018

      A Northland one? Two-laned?

    • Gezza

       /  June 28, 2018

      Looks like stock standard vapid repeater-only sensationalist tripe no editor journalism to me.

  7. sorethumb

     /  June 28, 2018

    China’s emergence as a world power is resulting in more Chinese New Zealanders feeling a greater sense of attachment to China than to New Zealand, a study has found.

    More than 94 per cent of Chinese permanent residents and more than half of those with NZ citizenship told University of Auckland researchers that they felt a greater sense of belonging and identified more with their country of origin than New Zealand.

    Between 2009 and last year, the researchers interviewed 90 migrants originally from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

    “An overwhelming 94.5 per cent stated they were Chinese/Taiwanese/Hong Konger, while only 5.5 per cent said they somehow felt they belonged to both New Zealand and their country of origin,” the report said.

    The study also found that Chinese migrants aged 15 to 44 felt significantly more attached to their homeland identity than those aged 45 and over.

    Manying Ip, the professor of Asian studies who led the project, described this as “surprising” and said the finding contradicted earlier assumptions that older Chinese migrants were more conservative and therefore felt more attached to their homelands.

    “The finding is surprising in that it contravenes accepted migration and acculturation theories,” she said.
    “It indicates that the younger cohort are more attached than their older counterparts to their native homeland and feel their identity is more Chinese than anything else.”

    Professor Ip said the finding carried “significant implications for future interpretation of migrants’ sense of allegiance and their acculturation process”.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/multiculturalism/news/article.cfm?c_id=58&objectid=10783815

    Foreigners at heart.

    • Gerrit

       /  June 28, 2018

      Not surprising at all the crap they thrown at them from Labour. Chinky sounding names was just the starter.

      Before that we had New Zealand First racist stance against Chinese folk

      “New Zealand First deputy leader Peter Brown has been labelled a racist after suggesting there are too many Asian immigrants in New Zealand.

      Mr Brown yesterday expressed his concern after learning New Zealand’s Asian population was expected to grow faster than any other. ”

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10501783

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  June 28, 2018

        I felt very much that I was Northern Irish as a child, and still do to some extent. When I lived in Belgium, I would have said that I was a New Zealander rather a Belgian resident (in the sense of living there) and even had I become a citizen, I don’t think that I would have answered ‘Belgian’ to a question about my nationality. One doesn’t stop feeling like a member of one’s ethnic group, I don’t think.

  8. PDB

     /  June 28, 2018

    The NZH has always been a left-wing newspaper – you think this story is bad, what about this nonsense story about regional fuel taxes by Simon Wilson: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12078915

    Twyford and Wilson must have gone to the ‘Blazer Zedd’ school of economics.

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2018/06/not_a_startling_revelation.html

    • Kitty Catkin

       /  June 28, 2018

      My old man wondered why they didn’t just change their name to The Daily Worker and have done with it.

  9. Blazer

     /  June 29, 2018

    heard the mayor of Queenstown with an unconvincing case for some foreign developer who had pulled the pin on building 50 AFFORDABLE houses and how unfair the Govts policy is.
    Amazing how a mere 3% is such a BIG deal…NOW.

  1. Stuff repeats Herald mistake on foreign buyers — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition