Unemployment rises slightly

After a decade low last quarter unemployment has risen slightly in the quarter to June 2018, to 4.5% (from 4.4%).

It rose to 4.3% (up 0.3%) for men, and fell to 4.7% (down 0.2%) for women.

This is not enough too cause any real concern, but if it turns into a trend it could become a problem. Dropping confidence may well translate into lower employment rates.

Labour market at a glance

  • Unemployment rate rose to 4.5 percent.
  • Underutilisation rate rose to 12.0 percent.
  • Employment rate was unchanged at 67.7 percent.
  • Filled jobs rose 0.8 percent.
  • Average ordinary time hourly earnings increased to $31.00.
  • Annual wage inflation increased 1.9 percent.

There is pressure on wage inflation with large claims pending for nurses, teachers and other public servants, as well as the minimum wage being pushed up.

Unemployment and underutilisation

In the June 2018 quarter, the seasonally adjusted unemployment and underutilisation rates both rose slightly.

  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.5 percent (up 0.1 percentage points).
  • The underutilisation rate rose to 12.0 percent (up 0.1 percentage points).
  • The unemployment rate for men rose to 4.3 percent (up 0.3 percentage points), while for women it fell to 4.7 percent (down 0.2 percentage points).
  • The underutilisation rate for men rose to 10.0 percent (up 0.6 percentage points), while for women, it fell to 14.3 percent (down 0.3 percentage points).

Regional unemployment rates:

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics-june-2018-quarter

 

59 Comments

  1. NOEL

     /  August 2, 2018

    Unemployment for men up. Unemployment for women.down. Diveristy everwhere?

  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  August 2, 2018

    The Greens have managed to make Taranaki unemployment worse than Northland and East Cape. Congrats.

    • Gezza

       /  August 2, 2018

      All the Taranaki electorate MPs are National. Guess they figured it wouldn’t matter.

    • Griff.

       /  August 2, 2018

      Oh dear rightie claims the sky is falling.
      Based on nothing but their own confusion and baseless fears.
      Thursday, 2 August 2018

      NZOG’s quarter to June report outlined it is looking at undertaking three exploration wells, one onshore in north Taranaki and two in Indonesia, while it is still looking for joint venture partners for its offshore Clipper prospect off Oamaru and Toroa, south of Dunedin.

      May 28 2018
      Exploration company proposes six year drilling programme in Taranaki Basin
      https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/104262633/exploration-company-proposes-six-year-drilling-programme-in-taranaki-basin

      Austrian – based OMV New Zealand Ltd has applied for a marine consent to discharge waste from the wells during a drilling programme between 2019 and 2025.
      The programme included drilling nine exploration wells, and three appraisal wells up between 102m and 158m deep in the company’s six permit areas in the Taranaki Basin.
      Under the petroleum exploration permit regulations the company had to drill one well in each permit area, or surrender the rights.
      Because the permits were already allocated the drilling programme is not affected by the Government’s recent announcement to stop all offshore drilling permits after 2030..

      • Griff.

         /  August 2, 2018

        Opps we can add two more company’s drilling in Taranaki

        Todd Energy is well underway with preparations to begin drilling and hydraulic fracturing six new wells at the Mangahewa G site, north Taranaki, in late 2018. Contractors are finishing off laying the 4.5 kilometre gas pipeline from the site to the Mangahewa production station in preparation for the wells being drilled and fractured.

        Tamarind publicly notified marine consent applications in early May for public submissions to drill five sidetrack offshore wells in the Tui field, in the Taranaki Basin from early 2019.

    • Blazer

       /  August 2, 2018

      produce your evidence!

      • High Flying Duck

         /  August 2, 2018

        Try looking at the graph in the post…

        • Blazer

           /  August 2, 2018

          I did…a substantial fall in unemployment the 2 areas mentioned and Taranaki up 0.3% is a big deal!

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  August 2, 2018

            So Taranaki and Westland being the resource provinces suffer the brunt of Green ideology.

          • Gezza

             /  August 2, 2018

            I wouldn’t personally expect there to be any job losses in Taranaki yet. Still years of work in oil & gas even if the Green’s policy doesn’t get overturned.

            But a 0.3% reduction in unemployment hardly seems like a big deal. I wonder what it is in actual numbers. Wouldn’t think it would be very many jobs. Could even be one?

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  August 2, 2018

              The difference between Taranaki’s increase and Northland and Gisbourne’s decrease is substantial 1.8%-2.8%. That is very significant when total unemployment is 4-5%. There is something going on there.

            • Gezza

               /  August 2, 2018

              That’s interesting but I’d still like to know what the actual numbers are. Could be someone opening a single factory or an engineering extension.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  August 2, 2018

              According to the Stats Dept link the annual change was 300 in Taranaki and 1900 in Northland. But they quote large sampling errors so maybe all the numbers are meaningless anyway.

  3. PartisanZ

     /  August 2, 2018

    “Underutilisation” …? What exactly is “underutilisation”?

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/income-and-work/employment_and_unemployment/improving-labour-market-statistics/introducing-underutilisation/measures-of-underutilisation.aspx

    “The underutilisation rate expresses the number of underutilised persons relative to the size of the extended labour force, as the following equation shows:

    Underutilisation rate = (Number of underutilised persons / Extended labour force) ×100

    Where the extended labour force is the total of the labour force (ie the number of persons employed and unemployed) and the potential labour force.”

    The potential labour force is those –

    1. – actively seeking work but were not available to have started work in the reference week but would become available within the next four weeks (ie unavailable jobseekers), or

    2. – not actively seeking work but would like a paid job and were available in the reference week (ie available potential jobseekers).

    A useful measure … of what?

    • Trevors_elbow

       /  August 2, 2018

      A measure of capacity in the economy.

      Those seeking more work are a ready labour force that can be tapped relatively quickly when the economy expands…

      • Blazer

         /  August 2, 2018

        you been bending that elbow again tonight Trev…go to bed.

        • Trevors_elbow

           /  August 2, 2018

          Piss off idiot…. is that straight enough for ya? Seems you’re immune to Pete’s staying on topic avoid personal knocks… so you are going to be to to kiss off every time you pop up in reply to any comment I post..

  4. David

     /  August 2, 2018

    That’s some pretty good numbers considering business confidence, let’s see what happens

    • Blazer

       /  August 2, 2018

      business confidence is a mere birch twig to beat yourself…with.

    • Trevors_elbow

       /  August 2, 2018

      Leading indicator…. unemployment numbers are trailing indicators…. so yes let’s see what happens, but declining confidence is not a good sign….

  5. Blazer

     /  August 2, 2018

    4.4% to 4.5%….really!.. 😦

  6. High Flying Duck

     /  August 2, 2018

    The only reason this is even a story is because of the business confidence levels dropping so far.
    Unemployment has increased slightly many times before as part of an overall downward trend. Until 2 – 3 more quarterly results are released there is nothing to see here.

  7. Zedd

     /  August 2, 2018

    “boo hoo” there is a blip in the unemployment figures & the ‘business confidence’ is reportedly at the lowest since.. who really knows when; we had better all panic & call for the Natl party to save us from the ‘end of the world as we know it’: NOT

    talk about fear-mongering to the MAX !
    ‘Politics 101’ strikes again… but is there really any basis for it ‘in reality’ ? :/

    • Gezza

       /  August 2, 2018

      There’s more to worry about from these big construction firms tanking & the potentially disastrous flow impacts through the whole sector, according Katie Bradford & Cameron Bagrie on 1ewes last night. Some of these poor subbies have been locked out of sites & can’t even get their personal tools & equipment back.

      • Zedd

         /  August 2, 2018

        this is the problem when you let ‘the private market’ have too much power & control for too long.. corners get cut (in favour of corporate profits) & these ‘houses of cards’ (built behind smoke & mirrors) collapse too easily 😦

        All essential services etc. should be Govt. owned/operated.. sez I

        • Gezza

           /  August 2, 2018

          It’s not corporate profits that seem to be the problem here: it’s tight margins & too fast rising construction costs making it difficult to calculate the right margin, shortages of skilled workers & regulatory delays, adding to the difficulties of costing things right.

          So, business competition, too much risk being taken in costing, in this environment, is the issue.

        • PDB

           /  August 2, 2018

          As usual Zedd has no idea – in many cases it’s the govt depts doing the shafting of these contractors.

          One thing I’ve noticed over the last little while is the removal of engineer estimates in many tenders which allows the client to ascertain what prices are unrealistic & then automatically discount them. By doing away with this the lowest price wins regardless of ability to deliver the services being paid for. Companies are assumed to be large enough to absorb any underpricing, and in the construction field with everchanging cost fluctuations, & in a lot of cases time penalties, tenders can be difficult to price accurately, especially lengthy jobs.

          • Blazer

             /  August 2, 2018

            the shafting that goes on is the classic trickle down’…the subbies cop it.

            Govt regulations are known when these efficient,talented entrepreneurs make their..tenders.

            Usual nonsense…good profits..’aren’t we brilliant’…losses…’who can we blame’!

            • PDB

               /  August 2, 2018

              Lefties love a good ‘trickle down’ – normally dribble from their chins.

            • Blazer

               /  August 2, 2018

              tell that to the subbies who can’t even get their own tools and go and do some work to pay their debts.
              The owners and management have been preparing to collapse the company and made provision as..usual.

            • PDB

               /  August 2, 2018

              Well that’s a totally different argument and one where I agree subcontractors need far more protection in such circumstances.

            • Trevors_elbow

               /  August 2, 2018

              Any subbie leaving tools and gears on site is foolish….

            • Gezza

               /  August 2, 2018

              Some of the gear that some subbies were able to remove looked pretty big. Compressors, generators. Their tools & equipment were stored in on-site ship containers. That’s not an unreasonable thing to do.

              Industry reps commenting themselves on this situation said there needs to legislation protecting subbies from this situation – and obviously there does.

            • Gezza

               /  August 2, 2018

              *be

            • Gezza

               /  August 2, 2018

              This construction industry shambles isn’t the fault of the current government. It’s obviously been an ongoing & long developing problem. This government is going to have to fix it because the last one didn’t.

  8. Ray

     /  August 2, 2018

    Anytime you have a Government,full to the gunnels with people who have no idea how difficult it is to run a business, saying “If you can’t pay all these extra levies, taxes ,and costs then you should not be in business”
    Guess what, unemployment goes up and though it isn’t by much yet, it is early days!

    • Blazer

       /  August 2, 2018

      but Ray private business is so efficient,and remember they pay the ‘going rate for talent’…why can’t they run a viable business ,without trying to blame…the gummint!

      • Trevors_elbow

         /  August 2, 2018

        What a stupid counter statement….. you’re seriously in need of a rest…

        • Blazer

           /  August 2, 2018

          this is the most stupid comment du jour..easily..


          Any subbie leaving tools and gears on site is foolish….’

          • Trevors_elbow

             /  August 2, 2018

            Nah son it’s not. Every subbie knows dont leave gear as you are always at risk.. its clear the law in this area needs urgent review to protect access to subbie equipment BUT any stuff you can remove each day you should because the current law around freezing sites when the head contractor goes belly up is archaic and anti property rights of subbies

            Even driving equipment off site each day and parking close by is a smart move…

            • Gezza

               /  August 2, 2018

              Down here you wouldn’t even leave a digger onsite unless there was security.

            • Gezza

               /  August 2, 2018

              But you sure wouldn’t park it up nearby, Trev. The cab will eventually be broken into & things smashed up by some late night early morning wandering group of yobbos.

  9. Zedd

     /  August 2, 2018

    There seems to be an ‘elitist attitude’ in NZ that ‘if you haven’t owned/run a company you have no idea or right to make comment..’ BUT we all have eyes & ears to to see & hear what goes on !

    • Zedd

       /  August 2, 2018

      just look at the ‘Cerco private prison debacle’

        • Zedd

           /  August 2, 2018

          as usual PDB has no idea….

          • PDB

             /  August 2, 2018

            No doubt health and safety is a big priority of the Labour-led govt’s state run prisons…from Stuff;

            “Double bunking in cells could increase the risk of prisoner-on-prisoner assaults and reduce rehabilitation opportunities at Waikeria Prison, a cabinet paper says.
            Room sharing badly impacts inmates’ health, reduces rehabilitation opportunities, moves prisoners away from normalisation and can mean upping staff ratios, according to a paper Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis presented to cabinet before the Waikeria Prison plan was signed off.

            Yet half of the cells at the new Waikeria Prison facility will be double bunked – in other words, two thirds of prisoners will share a cell.

            The guidelines for the minimum size of a two-person cell is 10sqm of living space, plus sanitary annex. The new cells, however, will be 9sqm.”

    • Blazer

       /  August 2, 2018

      Take away direct Govt and Council,contracts,purchasing,consultants,subsidies,RDI grants,tax breaks and incentives and most big firms would be down the gurgleo.

    • Trevors_elbow

       /  August 2, 2018

      No one says 4hat Z… what is co distantly said is this government has virtually no one who has any understanding of how businesses run and how thin margins are… particularly for some businesses which employ the largest workforce in totally.

      Try it.. run a business, get customers, manage cashflow, pay everyone on time… then meet new taxes. It isn’t easy at all and government policy all too often smacks SMES around unnecessarily as they dont have the capacity to absorb the additional overheads required to stay compliant…

  10. Zedd

     /  August 2, 2018

    first Natl denied the ‘housing crisis’ & now (in opposition) they are ‘happily’ trying to create/point to, as many CRISES as possible 😦

    • PDB

       /  August 2, 2018

      Hard to ignore them when there is a new one everyday with this govt.

      • Zedd

         /  August 2, 2018

        real or perceived.. OR just overstated by Tory supporters ? 😀

        • Trevors_elbow

           /  August 2, 2018

          What have the British Conservative party got to do with NZ politics?

          Are you classic whinging pommie unionist?