Australian leadership spill looks inevitable, three lining up

A tumultuous day in Australian politics yesterday, with a the second Liberal leadership vote looking likely in a week now. Malcolm Turnbull looks like dead leader stumbling.

News.com.au: Peter Dutton needs just one signature to secure leadership spill

PETER Dutton is only one signature away from securing a leadership spill to oust Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, according to a Liberal MP.

Mr Dutton’s supporters say he now has more than 40 signatures in his favour in a petition to Mr Turnbull to call a spill that’s been circling Parliament House since last night.

Speaking to reporters outside parliament earlier this evening, Liberal member for McPherson Karen Andrews said she understands only “one more signature is required”.

Ms Andrews, who signed the petition herself, noted that she wasn’t necessarily going to back Mr Dutton.

“But I will not stand by after having Parliament adjourned today to have this matter not concluded tomorrow. I understand that only one more signature is required,” she said.

The former home affairs minister needs 43 signatures for Mr Turnbull to call a party room meeting.

But the Prime Minister has left Parliament House for the day — and it’s understood he hasn’t received a petition.

Mr Turnbull today said he would call a special party room meeting at midday tomorrow if a letter requesting one, signed by a majority of MPs, was presented to him. The embattled leader said he would move a spill motion, and if it was carried, that he wouldn’t stand as a candidate for the top job, and resign both as prime minister and as a member of parliament.

That would leave Turnbull’s replacement leader with a poisoned chalice, probably a hung parliament.

But the controversial Peter Dutton isn’t the only challenger. Treasurer Scott Morrison and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop have also indicated they would put themselves forward.

Roy Morgan snap poll:

Liberal Leadership contenders vs. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten

  • Julie Bishop (64%) cf. Bill Shorten (36%)
  • Malcolm Turnbull (54%) cf. Bill Shorten (46%)
  • Bill Shorten (50.5%) cf. Scott Morrison (49.5%)
  • Bill Shorten (62%) cf. Peter Dutton (38%)

All ‘can’t say’ and ‘don’t know’ responses have been removed from these results to make them directly comparable.

Analysis by Party – Bishop leads easily amongst L-NP & Ind./Others supporters, Shorten ahead with ALP & Greens supporters

  • L-NP supporters: Bishop 87% cf. Shorten 13%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 74%;
  • ALP supporters: Shorten 59.5% cf. Bishop 40.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 19%;
  • Greens supporters: Shorten 56.5% cf. Bishop 43.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 13%;
  • Ind./Others supporters: Bishop 70.5% cf. Shorten 29.5%. Lead to Ms. Bishop 41%.

Seems like an easy choice for the Liberals, if they care about the poll results.

I think Dutton would be dire, and Bishop looks a good prospect – but it depends on what sort of support she would get from the Liberal caucus.

And to avoid her being forced into an immediate election it would require a change of mind by Turnbull about quitting.

But perhaps an election would be needed regardless.

Source: Julie Bishop easily preferred to Bill Shorten as PM, virtual dead-heat between Morrison & Shorten while Shorten leads Dutton clearly

More details here.

6 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  August 24, 2018

    Go for Julie.

  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  August 24, 2018

    Very impressive poll results. Not often so clear cut. Should put a big dent in Dutton’s chances but that leaves a choice between status quo or Bishop facing election prospect.

  3. MaureenW

     /  August 24, 2018

    Morrison is he, for now.
    I’m glad this isn’t happening in NZ right now, seems like nothing more than a vanity project.

  4. Gezza

     /  August 24, 2018

    Why?
    It cannot be overstated how enormously this has backfired on the conservative forces inside the Liberal Party who detonated the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull in order to seize control of the party and steer it in another direction.

    Peter Dutton, their champion, has failed.
    More …
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-to-resign-as-prime-minister-ahead-of-leadership-battle-between-dutton-bishop-and-morrison-20180824-p4zzga.html

    Australia will have a new Prime Minister after Scott Morrison was elected leader of the Liberal Party.

    Morrison won the vote in the party room meeting 45 to 40 after days of tense meetings and panicked phone calls among party members as the country watched its government fall into disarray.

    Morrison becomes the sixth Prime Minister in 11 years, and the fifth in five years.
    More …
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12112943