Colmar Brunton poll – October 2018

Colmar Brunton were polling for 1 News as the Jami-Lee Ross mess unfolded last week, so it is  snapshot of support that won’t give anything like a clear indication of ongoing effects on party support.

But it is what it is, at a volatile time.

  • Labour 45% (up from 42%)
  • National 43% (down from 45%)
  • Greens 7% (up from 6%)
  • NZ First 5% ( no change)
  • ACT 0% (down from 1%)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)

This looks remarkably not bad for National considering the week from hell they have just been through – but it may be too soon to measure the full effect of all of this.

The poll was conducted from Monday to Friday (15-19 October 2018).

The last poll was taken from 28 July to 1 August 2018.

Since the election up until this poll Colmar Brunton had:

  • National 46%, 43%, 44%, 45%, 45%
  • Labour 39%, 48%, 43%, 43%, 42%
  • Greens 7%, 5%, 6%, 5%, 6%
  • NZ First 5%, 2.6%, 5%, 4.2%, 5%

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 42%
  • Simon Bridges 7%
  • Judith Collins 5%
  • Winston Peters 4%

Last poll details and polling history since the election.

Leave a comment

62 Comments

    • Corky

       /  October 23, 2018

      That’s the killer blow for Labour. This is a great poll for National apart from their perennial issue of coalition partner. Let’s hope it speeds up a change of leadership. We need another poll for comparison.

      Reply
  1. Patience, Pete.
    Could this be true, do you think (from RNZ):
    ““A text believed to have been sent to Jami-Lee Ross in August by a female MP that Mr Ross had a relationship with has been released today.
    Checkpoint has chosen not to release the exact words of the entire text out of concern for the wellbeing of both MPs. It is not clear what prompted the message.
    However it was sent to Mr Ross at 1:19am on a Saturday morning and concluded by saying: “You deserve to die”.”

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  October 23, 2018

      Isn’t that totally irrelevant to people deciding who they support and would vote for? Isn’t that going to make many people more steadfast because they agree with the sentiment? Some might have misgivings by hearing it – only because it’s not strident enough for them.

      Reply
    • It could easily be true – I’ve heard women who have been assaulted think just like that. They can get very angry.

      Is it true that RNZ is allowing themselves to be used by Slater et al to run attacks against victims to try and claim some sort of victimhood for themselves?

      Don’t you find that reprehensible Robert?

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  October 23, 2018

        From within that article:
        One of Mr Ross’ supporters – who doesn’t want to be named – has told RNZ the Botany MP has been discharged and is no longer in Auckland.

        if this is true, does anybody want to ask me why am I not surprised?

        This is certainly the dirtiest and most disgusting behaviour yet I have seen from any nz media journalist. This has no context whatsoever and includes the statement: A text believed to have been sent to Jami-Lee Ross in August by a female MP that Mr Ross had a relationship with has been released today.

        That is disgraceful – there is nothing to confirm that statement and no context whatsoever and nothing to show what might have preceded it or what reply was sent. I am disgusted with our media over this entire affair.

        Reply
        • robertguyton

           /  October 23, 2018

          That’s why I asked it it was true, Gezza. I think you directed some of your anger at me, as did Pete. Was it a secret that I shouldn’t have revealed? It’s freely available information though, as your link shows. I hope no one criticises you for linking to the story. I’ll defend you if they do. Pete claims it’s from an assaulted woman. I’m not sure how he knows this. The news says it was from an MP, presumably a Nat. It’s not at all pleasant.

          Reply
          • I don’t know that she was assaulted. I know that women can get very emotional when relationships turn sour as well when assaulted. So can men – some take it to extremes.

            You seem to be talking around the issue and avoiding giving your view on what RNZ are doing here on behalf of Ross or whoever acted for him in releasing the text.

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  October 23, 2018

            Don’t come the raw kumara with me, robert. You are slyly muckraking against National as much as they are. The link gave a lot more information on which to evaluate the few confirmed facts of this situation than you did.

            Reply
        • unitedtribes2

           /  October 23, 2018

          I wonder if he’s gone to Hawkes Bay

          Reply
      • robertguyton

         /  October 23, 2018

        “Is it true that RNZ is allowing themselves to be used by Slater et al to run attacks against victims to try and claim some sort of victimhood for themselves?”
        I don’t know, Pete – is it true?
        “Don’t you find that reprehensible Robert?”
        Find what reprehensible? Oh, I see, you’re claiming the above is true. I didn’t know that it was.

        Reply
        • I’ll try it a bit simpler for you Robert.

          Do you think it is ok for RNZ to run the sort of revelation attacking victims, just like Cameron Slater has been threatening would happen this week?

          Reply
          • robertguyton

             /  October 23, 2018

            I don’t like it at all. I don’t know what or who’s behind it. The whole Ross. v. The National Party thing is awful.

            Reply
  2. Gezza

     /  October 23, 2018

    Thought I might as well copy this over from Open Forum

    Gezza / October 23, 2018

    ……….
    Blazer / October 23, 2018
    pretty much as expected.
    ………
    Gezza / October 23, 2018
    Yes. It has skewed matters I think. I would like to see weekly polls. I am interested in whether Jacinda and Labour scored high because some respondents were retaliating against National given the events which had occurred.

    These polls are so infrequent they are subject to distortions by big events. Trends are less easy to spot.

    But it is equally possible Jacinda and Labour are just scoring higher anyway – rather than fortuitously scoring off some “disgusted with National” respondent impulses.

    I suspect Jacinda’s scoring well with the younger voters and females in particular who she is targeting well.

    And Labour’s Ministers are starting to learn the ropes with their portfolios and interviews. And the tv media is generally more favourable to the current government than the opposition. I think tv news media are still probably more influential than the more numerous print media items which we smallish number of political tragics are more inclined than most to read more of.

    Reply
    • Sean

       /  October 23, 2018

      A reputable poll costs just around 30-45,000 NZD, so I don’t imagine weekly polls are going to suddenly become a thing…

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  October 23, 2018

        I’d even be happy with a 2 or 3 less than reputable polls between the bigger ones, tbh. I find the long gaps irritating. Must be some way to do it more cheaply.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  October 23, 2018

          Yep, get the unemployed up and mobile…after they have been to detox. 😄

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  October 23, 2018

            Please don’t take this the wrong way but are you sure you’re not double dosing some supplement or other?

            Reply
            • Corky

               /  October 23, 2018

              Liberal guilty? What the hell is hard about asking someone a question?

              Ah, I get it. By the time these beanies come out of detox the window of opportunity will have past.

            • Corky

               /  October 23, 2018

              *guilt*

            • Gezza

               /  October 23, 2018

              No, I mean, you seem to think everyone who is unemployed is on drugs or an alcoholic from what you posted. That seems to me to be fuzzy thinking. Can you link to any statistics or other information that would confirm this is the case?

            • Corky

               /  October 23, 2018

              No, but I have plenty of first hand experience. Take my rellies orchard. He gave up on beanies 20 years ago. Friday and Monday, never at work.
              How come fruit rots on the tree while thousands of beanies are unemployed? Answer: it’s not worth the problems for Winz and the orchardists to kit these people out for two days work before they give up for good. We had beanies on the orchard kitted out with hundreds of dollars worth of clothes. Some even had bikes paid for by Winz.

            • Gezza

               /  October 23, 2018

              Ah but that was 20 years ago.Under Jacinda’s benevolent reign they will be delivered to the workplace by luxury double decker bus paid for by some levy or other, be given substantially more pay to attract them away from the expensive sciences, medical and legal studies, generous lunch and tea breaks, excellent parental leave which might be needed because of the generous lunch and tea breaks – and motivational speeches on facebook or in person by the regime’s Champion of the Provinces who will use the opportunity to encourage his nephs everywhere to get off their couches and come to the joys of well-paid employment.

            • Griff.

               /  October 23, 2018

              They pay minimum wage to pick fruit.
              Minimum wage $600 minus the benefit $210 and the cost of working say $100 for gas, clothing and food a week leaves you less than $300 a week better off for forty hours of hard work.
              Who would bother working their arse off in a hard dirty job for that?

            • Corky

               /  October 24, 2018

              There is no minimum wage for picking fruit. Plus there is contract work. A good hydro operator ( I preferred the ladder) can earn well over a thousand dollars a week.

              But leaving that to one side…anyone being paid by the taxpayer should have no choice to pick and choose. They should help replenish our GDP and pay tax.. That’s where the money comes from to pay for their benefits.

            • Gezza

               /  October 24, 2018

              I’ve had to give myself an uptick because no other bugger would. Just saying.

      • Blazer

         /  October 24, 2018

        so how does Farrar fund his then?

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  October 24, 2018

          If Corky’s relly existed, he’d know that there is indeed a minimum wage for fruitpickers. It’s the NZ minimum wage.If anyone didn’t pay this, they would be in serious trouble. But as the relly who owns an orchard is probably like Mrs Harris is Martin Chuzzlewit (there ain’t no sitch a person) it’s irrelevant.

          Reply
  3. David

     /  October 23, 2018

    Surprising they didnt drop lower considering the poll timing, when the poll started Bridges was being called a donation fraudster and called an MP f..ing useless.

    Reply
  4. Kitty Catkin

     /  October 23, 2018

    The current hoohah will probably live up to the nine days that these things usually last; That saying is true, if cliched.

    I saw something very rude written on the back of a rubbish truck about 1080 and Jacinda Arden (sic)

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  October 23, 2018

      Another home-schooled bloody illiterate probably.

      Reply
      • Pickled Possum

         /  October 23, 2018

        Gezza I personally know a home schooled boy who became a multi million dollar business man … through hard work and business acumen. Did I mention he was home schooled?

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  October 23, 2018

          Yes I think you might have mentioned that in your first sentence Possum. Possibly. Is he illiterate? That’s the key point.

          Reply
        • Blazer

           /  October 23, 2018

          yes Tamaki has done well..religion is a great business..no tax.

          Reply
  5. Patzcuaro

     /  October 23, 2018

    Labour 45 plus Greens 7 equals 52

    Reply
  6. Patzcuaro

     /  October 23, 2018

    How can Bridges say he wouldn’t have done anything differently? If he had been more subtle about the initial leak he wouldn’t be in this mess.

    Reply
    • Zedd

       /  October 23, 2018

      ‘How can Bridges say he wouldn’t have done anything differently?’ sez Patz

      .. because hes an arrogant prat.. full of his own self importance.. enuf sed :/ 😀

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  October 23, 2018

      He just doesn’t have the smarts for the job. We knew that. Even if he’s totally exonerated which I actually hope will be the case he will be replaced. But I can’t think of a single leader of any party who has admitted that until Andy did, then he didn’t, then he did, then he was.

      Reply
  7. Zedd

     /  October 23, 2018

    Natl down to 43%
    Act down to 0

    Bridges down to 7%

    ‘Way to Go !’ keep up the good work 😀 😀

    Gee.. that $100k spend-up by Bridges of tax-payer money.. was really worth it EH ?

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  October 23, 2018

      If you ask for help someone may be able to explain to you why this isn’t a bad poll for National.

      Don’t forget NZ1. If Winston sees the fairy princesses chances diminish at the next election, you can bet he would be more than willing to talk to a NEW National leader.

      Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  October 23, 2018

        @Corky are National going to bring in the wicked witch, she might have better luck casting spells to get rid of boy racers.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  October 24, 2018

          It matters not. Time is of the essence. National can try out several leaders before the next election….but Labour can’t change its fiscal policy before the next election. Not looking good for Labour, Patz .

          Reply
  8. robertguyton

     /  October 23, 2018

    I’m very happy with that poll.

    Reply
  9. Blazer

     /  October 23, 2018

    was quite surprised that Bridges actually showed some integrity about handling the donations…JLR was really trying to entrap him.

    Reply
    • Pickled Possum

       /  October 23, 2018

      That was pretty obvious in …. That Phone Call … Ross made to Bridges.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  October 23, 2018

        sorry to be so ..obvious..wasted a post..I guess.

        Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  October 23, 2018

        Stop it … Possum.

        Reply
      • Corky

         /  October 23, 2018

        Chur, my cuzzie..you are making Blazer go ”raro raro.” with your cheeky korero.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  October 23, 2018

          I don’t think she’s your cousin Corks. Very unlikely imo.

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  October 23, 2018

            Yes, she has made that quite clear with her previous korero. But I need to address her correctly otherwise she will accuse me of becoming stale and white.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  October 23, 2018

              Very unpredictable gender, the female. One never knows.

  10. Zedd

     /  October 24, 2018

    I listened briefly to Marcus Lush on ZB last evening..(paraphrased) he was asking how much parties/leaders put on these polls. He then said that ‘Key was a great ‘Poll-rider’ (very influenced by them ?).

    He then broke into raucous laughter; he said answering a text.. the spelling is POLL, not pole 😀 😀

    Reply
  11. Zedd

     /  October 24, 2018

    watching the ‘political panel’ on TV1 Breakfast show: Denise Lee (Natl) was asked ‘what about the disparity between party poll (43%) & Bridges ‘Pref PM’ (7%).. she replied that the ‘party still has good level of support’ but sidestepped the 7% for Bridges.. then added that all Natl MPs support ‘the leader’ (paraphrased)

    one thing I ask though:
    Jacinda 42%, Bridges 7%, Judith 5% & Winnie 4%.. only adds to 58%.
    Are the other 42%, just non-committal OR voting for other MPs, that are not getting listed ?

    Reply
    • Zedd

       /  October 24, 2018

      ‘OR voting for other MPs, that are not getting listed ?’

      perhaps: Green Co-leaders/MPs OR even Mr Seymour ??

      Looks a bit inconsistent.. :/

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  October 24, 2018

        I suggest most of the remaining have ‘no preference’ as to PM and instead vote on a party basis.

        Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  October 24, 2018

      Good question, Z. Presumably “Don’t know/don’t care”.

      Reply
  1. Colmar Brunton poll – October 2018 — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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