Economic outlook – Colmar Brunton

This from 1 News Colmar Brunton shows fluctuations in public perceptions of economic outlook – “In the next 12 months do you think the economy will be better/worse?”:

This shows  fluctuations over the last ten years:

This shows that most of the time there is more optimism than pessimism about the economy but occasionally there is a small majority who think the economic outlook is worse than better.

I have no idea how people form opinions on economic outlook, and how much this is influenced by personal rather than national issues.

 

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16 Comments

  1. Blazer

     /  October 29, 2018

    A pretty worthless,meaningless measure.
    Most people have little understanding of economics and ‘prediction is very hard,especially about the…future’.
    Treasury can’t predict outcomes in the medium term let alone…long term,according to an ex P.M.

    Reply
  2. David

     /  October 29, 2018

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12149239

    The MYOB survey is looking a bit ugly with revenue declines being noted not just confidence in the government being smashed to pieces.
    Ardern has a problem with her employment law and the unionist Minister fronting it, she might as well get on with annoying her union funders and run the risk of them deselecting her as leader of the Labour Party and dump any talk of a return to national awards, its not the 1970s.
    She would get an immediate 15 point jump in business confidence and that would probably have its own momentum.

    Reply
  3. Zedd

     /  October 29, 2018

    It sounds like ‘business confidence’ is down.. because most of the business owners & farmers are likely Natl-act voters ?!

    Also there has been a constant level of FEAR-mongering by the Natl opposition, that the whole economy is about to collapse & it is all the fault of the Lab/NZF/Grn Govt.

    BUT then Robertson (Finance Minister) announced that there is a $5bln+ surplus in their first year… something Natl only achieve, ONCE in 9 loooooooooong years ?!! :/

    Reply
    • High Flying Duck

       /  October 29, 2018

      You forget it was National who achieved the surplus Robertson just announced.
      Labour get to announce the next few though. And with revenues dropping like a stone they will be hoping the fuel tax makes up the shortfall.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  October 29, 2018

        National had a woeful record ..straightline deficits…trying to claim credit for a surplus in absentia is laughable…but understandable …for them!

        Reply
        • High Flying Duck

           /  October 29, 2018

          Weren’t you recently banging on about it being far to early to judge the government because they haven’t had a chance to implement policies yet?
          Name the changes Labour have made that have had an impact on tax revenues and increased the surplus?

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  October 29, 2018

            no I wasn’t banging on.
            I see Zedd has also turned you into..Swiss cheese.

            Reply
            • High Flying Duck

               /  October 29, 2018

              I see you’ve got…nothing.

            • Blazer

               /  October 29, 2018

              when it comes to ‘nothing”…you have plenty more than…moi.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  October 29, 2018

              I was wrong – you have a ready supply of squirrels and dissembling.

            • Blazer

               /  October 29, 2018

              even a blind squirrel trips over a…nut…now and again.

      • Zedd

         /  October 29, 2018

        ‘You forget it was National who achieved the surplus Robertson just announced.’ sez HFD

        “Fake news’ sez I
        Robertson said that IF Natl had retained power & given all their promised TAX-CUTS to the wealthy, there would be little/NO surplus.. except, perhaps in the pockets of the Tories & their Cronies ? 😦

        Reply
        • High Flying Duck

           /  October 29, 2018

          The “tax cuts” – which was actually just moving rate threshold to undo bracket creep – would have benefited all middle income earners, and cost a lot less than the free first year university handout to the wealthy.

          Reply
          • Zedd

             /  October 29, 2018

            oh really ? 😦

            Reply
            • High Flying Duck

               /  October 29, 2018

              “It includes a tax cut of about $11 a week for workers on more than $22,000 and $20 for those on more than $52,000 a year.

              That was from moving up the bottom two tax rate thresholds – the lowest threshold will lift from $14,000 to $22,000 and the second from $48,000 to $52,000.”

              Labour ditched the tax cuts that benefited all workers and targeted people like Winston Peters with the winter energy subsidy, wealthy people with the free tertiary funds. And higher WFF payments.

              The cost of the package was well under half the surplus, but don’t let that interrupt your story.

  1. Economic outlook – Colmar Brunton — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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