US midterm elections – voting ends and counting begins today (NZ time)

Voting is currently under way in the US midterm elections, Tuesday US time.

NBC News: Stunning early-voting numbers ahead of Election Day

More than 35 million early votes have been counted nationwide as of Monday — well more than the total cast in the 2014 midterm elections.

That year, just more than 21 million early votes were tabulated.

The NBC News Data Analytics Lab, using voter file data from TargetSmart, found that 35,526,881 early votes were counted nationwide as of Monday. In states that have early voting, 42 percent of voters are Republican, 41 percent are Democrats, and 17 percent have either independent or have another party affiliation.

So similar turnouts between Republicans and Democrats. I think that the turnout of independents, and which way they vote, will be of more importance than committed voters.

NY Times: Two Vastly Different Election Outcomes That Hinge on a Few Dozen Close Contests

Democrats appear poised to win the House popular vote on Tuesday by a wide margin, with national polls showing sustained disapproval of President Trump — and yet the fate of the chamber is not a foregone conclusion.

On the day before the midterm elections, two vastly different outcomes remain easy to imagine. There could be a Democratic blowout that decisively ends Republicans’ control of the House and even endangers their Senate majority. Or there could be a district-by-district battle for House control that lasts late on election night and perhaps for weeks after.

All of this may be adding up to a late shift toward Democrats. The Times reported that both Democratic and Republican operatives see House polls as trending Democratic in the final days, and the last wave of Times/Siena polls are at least consistent with that possibility.

FiveThirtyEight poll of poll based forecasts have moved slightly in favour of the Democrats winning the House (a 87.9% chance), and slightly reduced the strong odds of the republicans holding the Senate (a 80.9% chance).

RealClear Politics has the Republicans with 49 likely wins in the Senate, the Democrats with 43, and 8 uncertain so that certainly favours the Republicans.

RealClear Politics has the Democrats with 203 likely wins in the House, the Republicans with 194, with 38 up for grabs.

President Donald Trump has been campaigning hard for the Republicans. He may encourage a higher turnout of Republicans who like or believe his divisive rhetoric and lies (many do), but he may also encourage a higher turnout of Democrats who dislike him, and also independents who could swing either for or against Republicans thanks to Trump.

Some claim that these elections are a test of Trump’s mandate, but I think it is much more complicated than that – as indicated by the likely opposing movements between the House (to the Democrats) and the Senate (to the Republicans).

While Trump and others are likely to claim some sort of victory, it looks most likely to be indecisive.

Polls close and vote counting begins NZ time from 12 noon through to 6:00 pm Wednesday.

We will get some results this afternoon and this evening, and we may get an idea of likely overall outcomes of the House and the Senate, but it could take days to get all the results, and possibly weeks.

The outcome is of obvious interest to political junkies in New Zealand, but it is unlikely to change much for us here.

Leave a comment

30 Comments

  1. Patzcuaro

     /  November 7, 2018

    Hope the jockey is born in America and there is no outside interference

    Reply
  2. Patzcuaro

     /  November 7, 2018

    Stand up

    Reply
  3. David

     /  November 7, 2018

    There are so many seats in the margin of error calling anything is a dangerous game. Trump is just one of many factors and there are loads of Governorship races on so a lot of voting is quite local.
    Trump is doing 3 rally,s a a day and Obama did 3 in total and lost his voice and no one is forecasting Trump will lose as many seats as Obama did but he will lose quite a few.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  November 7, 2018

      The best thing is that eventually we’ll know the result.

      Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  November 7, 2018

        Then we have a brief break before the 2020 Presidential primaries start.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  November 7, 2018

          Don’t you just love the American Way, Patzcuaro? The excitement! Meanwhile in Aotearoa we are fixating on deporting some dude.

          Reply
          • Kitty Catkin

             /  November 7, 2018

            Anyone who finds this exciting can’t have much going on in their own life.

            Reply
            • MaureenW

               /  November 7, 2018

              I find it exciting, but I see you have enough going on in your life to comment about topics that dont interest you.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  November 7, 2018

              Spiteful !

              I didn’t say that I wasn’t interested at all, but I don’t get all excited about the smallest details of the voting methods of an election in which I am not a voter, can’t change the result and will hear what it is. soon enough. We don’t know who most of the candidates are, so are none the wiser if John Smith or Mary Jones are voted in.

              I know that Americans vote for judges and various officials that we don’t, but don’t follow that with bated breath just because it’s what Corky thinks is ‘the American way’, any more than I goggle at the council elections in places where I don’t live here,

              Excitement over such things seems an over-reaction, to put it mildly.

            • MaureenW

               /  November 7, 2018

              Spiteful? Your comment was spiteful, unnecessary and added nothing to the discussion.

      • High Flying Duck

         /  November 7, 2018

        That’s a big call Gezza. Putting it all on the line with that one!

        Reply
  4. Those turnout numbers are extremely good for Republicans. This is because registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans, so for GOP voters to be turning out early is significant. I’m expecting Democrats to still take the House, but probably only by a dozen seats or less.

    Reply
  5. Griff.

     /  November 7, 2018

    Donald J. Trump
    ‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!
    8:14 PM – 6 Nov 2018

    Winning Trump styles.
    For the first time since 2010 Democrats will control the House. will be chairs of every committee, will control the legislative agenda and oversight powers.
    This is going to be fun for the next two years.
    Enjoy watching Trump officials subpoenaed and having to answer questions on national TV under oath.
    There will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth from the orange ones loyal suckers.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  November 7, 2018

      Not a surprise since holding the Senate and losing the House was long predicted and seemed to be likely from the latest polls.

      If the next two years is a shit fight then Trump will go up for reelection blaming the Democrats. Also look to Trump to innovate in how he fights a hostile House. All bets will be off on that.

      Reply
      • The polls seem to have been largely on the mark this time round.

        Reply
      • Corky

         /  November 7, 2018

        Yes, this will be interesting. Does he not stand for reelection..or does he do nothing for two years; let the country slide, then come back strong? This will be intriguing. Maybe the Dems won’t get the easy ride they are expecting.

        Reply
      • Blazer

         /  November 7, 2018

        War on the way…Iran the ‘girl’ …most likely.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  November 7, 2018

          Quite likely. This result says more people don’t want a narcissistic liar and bully as their President than do. Starting a war under any pretext is always a good way to win over the public by appealing to patriotism – although Trump has possibly devalued the concept of patriotism, so it’s perhaps not a given in his case that all the people would fall in behind him if he does provoke a conflict.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  November 7, 2018

            NYT says in the 39 midterm elections since 1862, the president’s party lost House seats 35 times and seats in the Senate 24 times. And there were far more vulnerable Republican House seats up for election than Democrat so the odds were clearly stacked and the result was normal rather than abnormal.

            What was abnormal was the high turnout obviously caused by Trump’s polarisation and apparently a deepening divide between rural and city voters.

            Reply
  6. Griff.

     /  November 7, 2018

    Trump has about 40% committed voters who would believe if he told them its raining while he pissed on them ,
    I think it would be hugely difficult to convert the remainder to his cause .
    The other angle is he motivates voters against him more than he does for him.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  November 7, 2018

      Voters have made their feelings plain. Even if his policies give some of them jobs, they don’t just want a lying arsehole as their President.

      Reply
  7. Gezza

     /  November 7, 2018

    Mine was just too deeply philosophical for you, Al.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s