US midterm election results

Largely as predicted by polls and pundits, the Republicans have held the Senate with an slightly increased majority, and the House has moved the other way with Democrats taking control there – with some results (about 20) yet to be confirmed it looks like about a twenty seat margin. This is a flip from the last result (Republicans 235, Democrats 193).

Current House result (412 of 435 seats decided):

  • Democratic Party 220 (50.6%)
  • Republican Party 193 (44.4%)
  • Other parties 0 (0%)

It is remarkable that in a country as large and diverse as the USA only two parties contested the House elections.

Current Senate results (96 or 100 seats declared):

  • Republican Party 51 (51%%)
  • Democratic Party 43 (43%)
  • Other parties 2 (2%)

That is just about an exact reversal of party support, although only 35 of the Senate seats were contested, and these generally favoured the Republicans.

There was an unusually high turnout for midterm elections, despite the usual claims of difficulties and deterrences in voting. For Kiwis who are used to just wandering into a polling booth and voting, it seems odd to see such long queues in the US.

What this election has accentuated is the increasing division in the US between pro and anti  Trump, urban and rural, highly educated versus less educated.

Trump has achieved some things, like a booming economy and increased employment, but he has also polarised the country, and has created greater risks with a huge deficit and disruption to trade.

FiveThirtyEight summarise the election result so far:

The big questions have been answered. Democrats have taken the House. Republicans will keep the Senate. Exactly how many seats will change hands, however, is still up in the air:

  • There are currently just over 30 House seats yet to be projected; if the current leader in all of them ends up winning, the House will be 227 Democrats, 208 Republicans.

Unsurprisingly Trump claimed a ‘very Big Win’:

A different slant from Reuters: Trump faces restraints after Democrats seize House

Democrats rode a wave of dissatisfaction with President Trump to win control of the House of Representatives, giving them the opportunity to block Trump’s agenda and open his administration to intense scrutiny.

Reuters: Seven takeaways from the U.S. congressional elections

  1. The urban-rural divide is as pervasive as ever.
  2. President Donald Trump remains an inescapable political force. Democrats credit Trump’s unpopularity among women, minorities, young people and suburban voters with college degrees for their House wins. Republicans said his late-stage campaign efforts helped them pick up seats in the Senate.
  3. Progressive stars had a tough night.
  4. Republicans held off a blue wave in governor’s races.
  5. The Republican Party is more Trumpian than ever.
  6. Wedge issues raised late in the campaign helped Republicans.
  7. Democrats had big success in the Great Lakes. The party held onto Senate seats in states in the industrial Midwest that Trump won in 2016.

 

Leave a comment

73 Comments

  1. Reply
    • Gezza

       /  November 8, 2018

      Lol. Woteva.

      Reply
      • High Flying Duck

         /  November 8, 2018

        He may have lost, but he is also right – the Republicans got a much better result than the last few presidents in their first term mid-terms.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  November 8, 2018

          True. Be good to see his tax returns at last though. And the shit fights coming up should finally get Americans to see how fucked up their system actually is.

          Reply
          • Dave K

             /  November 8, 2018

            But is it though? Maybe the chaos is a feature, not a bug……checks and balances and all that. Maybe not such a bad thing and worth considering in the context of the ‘captains calls’ we are subject to under out unicameral system.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  November 8, 2018

              A president gets half a term to accomplish things and can then be screwed about for the other half just because he can? That’s fucked.

            • Dave K

               /  November 8, 2018

              But isn’t that the point…..lots of squabbling and shitfights in the big house and nothing much gets done. In the meantime the goodly folks downhome can get on doing what they do with relative certainty the status quo will remain.

            • Gezza

               /  November 8, 2018

              I guess that’s true. Either way the arms dealers are always kept happy and the goodly folks downhome can keep on buying arms so some of their buyers can go off and commit mass shootings and school shootings and others can buy more guns to stop mass shooters & school shoorters except some of them will be mass shooters too & school shooters too. 90% of the arms owned by the criminal gangs over the southern border come from the US as well. It’s all just business though, with relative certainty the status quo will remain.

            • The Consultant

               /  November 8, 2018

              Maybe the chaos is a feature, not a bug……checks and balances and all that.

              It is a deliberate feature, designed specifically to keep the government small and weak (each State has the same setup), because the Founders were paranoid that they would simply replace one set of Kingly Aristocrats with another set.

              And it worked for a long time. But now, despite all this design, Americans have got big government anyway – and the “checks-and-balances” are now perversely working to maintain this status quo: preventing desperately needed change.

              Again though, I would not get too cocky: here in NZ MMP was selected by voters specifically to prevent another Rogernomics-style revolution in the future. In other words, we too are all into checks and balances to maintain the status quo, even as problems grow and are not resolved.

  2. Pink David

     /  November 8, 2018

    “he has also polarised the country,”

    The idea that Trump has polarised the country is laughable. He is a symptom, not the cause.

    Reply
    • He is both symptom and cause – and he has increased division and polarisation. He has strong support but also strong opposition.

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  November 8, 2018

        “he has increased division and polarisation.”

        Nonsense. There has been this polarisation for at least the last 20 years. You are only see it more clearly. You have a large section of the left calling Trump ‘literally Hitler’, that the Russians did it, and claiming Trump is the most racist, misogamist, homophobic President ever. They have driven those more moderate right wing people more to the right and into supporting Trump more and more strongly.

        The cause of the polarisation is the left’s relentless attacks. They call there opponents deplorable and evil racists, and the delorable’s have got a bit sick and tired of it.

        Reply
        • Griff.

           /  November 8, 2018

          They have driven those more moderate right wing people more to the right and into supporting Trump more and more strongly.

          yes if that was the case we would have seen the house swing conclusively towards the GOP.
          Funny when facts get in the way …EH
          Trump has about 40% support from his core
          There is no evidence that this core support has changed.

          Reply
          • High Flying Duck

             /  November 8, 2018

            I think you missed the point Griff. Supporters of Trump are moving further rightward in the face of unrelenting media and Democrat attacks.
            Trump has never been given a fair deal and has been pilloried as racist and divisive, even when he repeats Obama policies almost verbatim.
            The media’s insistence on painting everything he does using extremist rhetoric is not helpful.
            You can like him or hate him, and have opinions and thoughts on his policy platform, but the fact is the actual legislation he has passed is hardly fringe.
            If the media toned things down, he would follow suit.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  November 8, 2018

              ‘If the media toned things down, he would follow suit.’…promise!

            • Griff.

               /  November 8, 2018

              Depends in what you mean by right.
              To me it is more an economic question .
              Left…………..right.
              Command economy…………….free market .
              Trump is a protectionist.
              left wing .

              The nationalism and racist rhetoric is authoritarian leaning towards fascism.

              The media’s insistence on painting everything he does using extremist rhetoric is not helpful.

              Ah yes.
              Don’t respond when he classes the press the enemy of the people attacks governments justice and security arms as corrupt and repeatedly lies his fat arse off .
              Just give him a free ride to his bullshite and bluster and it will all be ok
              Fuck me…..

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 8, 2018

              The press haven’t endeared themselves with reportage – many are on record (and off record) as wanting to get rid of Trump and planning to do what it takes to achieve it. Is it any surprise he hasn’t embraced them?

              He is most certainly provocative and has said some downright idiotic things during his tenure, but his actions have been far far below any threshhold – and significantly below Obama’s actions against the press which were. If you look at actions instead of rhetoric, Trump is a poussycat. Did you castigate Obama for fascist tendencies?:

              “Pulitzer Prize-winning national security reporter James Risen wrote in The New York Times that if Trump wants to jail a whistle-blower or use the FBI to spy on journalists, he got the playbook from his predecessor.

              Obama, who campaigned on a promise to protect government whistle-blowers, made greater use of the Espionage Act to prosecute leakers and menace journalists than all other presidents combined.

              Obama’s Justice Department accessed the personal email of a Fox News reporter and surveilled the reporter’s parents and colleagues. They seized the home, work and mobile phone records of journalists at the Associated Press.

              Risen, who fought the administration to protect his sources, got so deep in his own legal battle with Obama that he selected a reading list for prison before the government finally backed off.

              White House officials subverted the press in a number of ways while touting themselves as the most transparent in history.

              Obama routinely banned news photographers from official events. He went months between press conferences and used social media to circumvent reporters.

              First lady Michelle Obama took policy trips overseas with no press on her airplane. The White House scrubbed public visitor logs of names it didn’t want in the news.

              The Obama administration posted the worst record in history for fulfilling requests for public records under the Freedom of Information Act.”

              THAT is the trail to fascism Griff.

            • Griff.

               /  November 8, 2018

              Griff says
              The nationalism and racist rhetoric is authoritarian leaning towards fascism.

              What do we get from duck ?
              whatboutism .

              Words mean something
              Rhetoric does and I used with with a purpose.
              He is winding his base up with attacks on the press
              The consequence we see on here daily with many comments claiming the MSM is fake news biased etc
              Often with content cribbed from extremely biased right wing MSM sources who measurably repeat more fake news than the rest of the MSM.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 8, 2018

              The world is awash with Liberals who put great stock on the right words, but pay fuck all attention to actions.
              The UN is the prime example of this diplomatic hell where form triumphs over any semblance of substance.
              Obama spoke eloquently and was genuinely repressive.
              Trump speaks freely and offensively, but is more available and less restrictive than his predecessors.
              You can say what you like – Trump is constantly misrepresented and is cast as a cartoon villain. Reality is not that simple.
              I’d take his frankness (even with the lies) over the silken tongued hypocrites of the righteous left any day.

            • Pink David

               /  November 8, 2018

              “Depends in what you mean by right.
              To me it is more an economic question .
              Left…………..right.
              Command economy…………….free market .
              Trump is a protectionist.
              left wing .”

              By your definition both main parties in the US are left wing. Of course, your definition completely missed the culture war that is at the heart of this.

              “The nationalism and racist rhetoric is authoritarian leaning towards fascism.”

              Both sides of this divide are using racist rhetoric and have authoritarian overtones. Fascistic tactics are being used mostly by only one side however.

  3. Corky

     /  November 8, 2018

    President Trumpy warns the Democrats it will be tit -for- tat should they wish to get nasty. Personally, I would let them get nasty. That would ensure a great reelection chance. Unfortunately creative accounting and his unusual business practices, probably means Trumpy will fight the Dems all the way.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/07/us-midterm-election-results-live-democrats-republicans-house/

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  November 8, 2018

      I’m sure he will, but the problem with Trumpy is that whatever good he might achieve he’s such an arsehole as a person &playing the reality tv star, bully, and pathological liar that he demeans the office and that’s his biggest problem. They might like what he achieves in terms of jobs etc but he’s so awful I think people will take the good he achieves but biff him & his family out of the White House in 2020. That’d probably be a good thing if the Dems have learned from his successes and his mistakes.

      Aljaz tv reported yesterday that campaigning for the presidential nomination is already happening in earnest in the Democrat camp & there are some very interesting fresh young contenders.

      Reply
      • High Flying Duck

         /  November 8, 2018

        And the new blood is coming none to soon:

        ‘None of the above’ tops list of potential 2020 Dems, poll shows
        11/8/2018

        With the 2018 midterms in the rearview mirror, several Democrats are gearing up for the 2020 presidential contest. But so far, no Democrat has attracted broad support from the party’s base, according to a new Hill.TV American Barometer poll.

        The survey, conducted among 680 registered voters who identified themselves as Democrats or independents, found that “none of the above” was the most popular choice among potential 2020 challengers to President Trump.

        Thirty percent of the sample said they would prefer that “none of the above” become the Democratic nominee when asked to choose among former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D), Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (D), California Sen. Kamala Harris (D), former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  November 8, 2018

          There’s always Oprah I suppose. Or Ellen De Generes. Or Kanye West, depending which was he jumps (aw … no … maybe not Kanye). Or Bill Gates. Or The Rock. Or whoever. The way’s wide open for rank outsiders now.

          Reply
  4. Reply
  5. Reply
  6. Reply
  7. David

     /  November 8, 2018

    In comparison to Obama, Bush, Clinton et al it was a pretty good result for a mid term. Pelosi now has a choice she can work with him or investigate him and if she chooses the latter then Trump will win in 2020 and the Dems will loose the house again.
    Trump is holding a press conference at the moment and saying lovely things about Pelosi and hoping that they can work together. Lets see how they respond.

    Reply
    • He has also already made threats if investigations against him are started.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  November 8, 2018

        The nuclear ‘mutual destruction’ principle at work.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  November 8, 2018

          The Dems just need to pick the right candidate this time. Someone who knows how to capitalise on Trump’s successes. The Republicans will back him to the hilt the more of an arsehole he becomes and that will be that in 2020 because his capacity for arseholery will do him in with decent folk.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  November 8, 2018

            PS: Pelosi and Schumer get right up my nose. But at least they’ll drive him to madness.

            Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  November 8, 2018

            The Democrats are just as split as the nation and their radicals didn’t get much joy from the elections. There will be a lot of intetnsl warfare.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  November 8, 2018

              and their radicals didn’t get much joy from the elections
              Yes, but that’s a good thing. The right Presidential candidate will be able to control the luvvies.

          • Gezza

             /  November 8, 2018

            I’m sure it wall all end happily Al.

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  November 8, 2018

            fk! *will

            Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  November 8, 2018

        That’s pretty much what I expected. Trump won’t hesitate to innovate if Dems decide to play nasty.

        Reply
    • Griff.

       /  November 8, 2018

      Trump is holding a press conference at the moment and saying lovely things about Pelosi
      A k a sucking up .
      Problem for the orange ones is he said some pretty nasty things about her in the past .
      Going from a douche bag to a greasy douche bag is Trump all over.
      #Tax returns.

      Reply
      • David

         /  November 8, 2018

        And she has said equally awful things about him, its politics it happens here too. So now his reaching out to the other side is sucking up, Pelosi is on stage now saying the same things about working with Trump so how do you classify that.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  November 8, 2018

          He doesn’t..because he doesn’t understand politics and the art of surviving.

          Reply
      • Griff.

         /  November 8, 2018

        Oh I do understand ‘.
        It is called politics.
        What they say and what they will do are not congruent.
        What Pelosi and others can now do will not be nice for Trump or the GOP.
        Except Muller to make waves in the next few weeks.

        Reply
  8. High Flying Duck

     /  November 8, 2018

    Reply
    • High Flying Duck

       /  November 8, 2018

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  November 8, 2018

      Trumpy said the $110 bn arms deal with Saudi was worth $450 bn might be a trillion by this time next week. He said the 500,000 jobs that depended on it two days later was 600,000 then 3 days later it was 1 million. Might be half the jobs in America by Friday next week.
      Trump said the Democrats wanted to get rid of ICE, that they wanted MS13 and drug dealers as Immigrants and they wanted Open Borders for their immigration policy.

      It’s not always a good idea to listen to what Trumpy says. A lot of is … well … fucking out & out lies. And obviously more and more people are getting sick of that.

      Reply
      • High Flying Duck

         /  November 8, 2018

        Trump was right on this – Sessions “resigned” after being asked to.

        Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  November 8, 2018

        It’s not obvious more and more people are getting sick of it. It’s more obvious that Democrats are getting more sick of it.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  November 8, 2018

          Al the Democrats control the House of Representatives. That shouldn’t have happened because Trump is so good.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  November 8, 2018

            Both the Herald and Stuff are running articles suggesting this is a pretty good result for Trump and he is likely to win in 2020. There have been more registered Democrats than Republicans in the US for some time so he has an uphill party political divide to surmount. He now has a more partisan Senate favouring him and Republicans were successful in most of the states he campaigned in.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  November 8, 2018

              Remember that Stuff and The Herald talk a lot of crap about Trump though. I’m sure you’ve said that lots.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  November 8, 2018

              They do. Mostly from WaPo and news.com.au. These were not.

            • Gezza

               /  November 8, 2018

              So … ?

            • Gezza

               /  November 8, 2018

              @ Al
              Are you referring to the Herald article by Tony Blair?

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 8, 2018

              Probably this one Gezza:

              “The good news if you don’t like US President Donald Trump: he has less than 24 months remaining in his first term in office. The bad news: he now looks to have a better chance at staying in office until 2025.

              This year’s midterm elections broke for Trump much more than expected.

              The Republicans maintained their control of the Senate, picking up key victories in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. And though the Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives, as expected, this is not the counter-revolution they were hoping for.

              It is not a Trump wave, but it has confirmed the president’s staying power. Love him or hate him, he remains a remarkable political phenomenon.

              Trump looks to be in a better position for re-election than many commentators had believed.

              The Democrats did take back the House, but that is par for the course in midterm elections. What’s more telling is that they did not invade Trump territory – the deep-red parts of the South, Midwest and Rust Belt – in any substantial way. Winning control of the House could make life difficult for Trump, but the Democrats cannot remove him from office without a sizeable majority in the Senate – which seems a world away.

              Also, the midterms should make it a near-certainty that no serious Republican will challenge Trump for the presidential nomination in 2020. He has proven once again that he is an impressive electoral campaigner with a crude but effective grasp of strategy.”

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/108444884/the-us-midterms-show-the-power-of-donald-trumps-divisive-messages

            • Gezza

               /  November 8, 2018

              But that means nothing, HFD. The Dems can now screw Trump the way the Repubs screwed Obama. How is hanging on to “Trump territory – the deep-red parts of the South, Midwest and Rust Belt” a victory? Nobody expected him to lose that territory anyway. Gonna be an interesting next few months.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  November 8, 2018

              He’s talking in an electoral sense. You say he wasn’t expected to lose that territory, but the Democrats raised incredible sums of money to try and get these areas back – they are the previously Democrat areas that Trump managed to turn red to take the WH.
              Losing the House is also in many ways a a bonus. Trump wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire enacting his legislative program due to the push back from moderate Repubs. He now has the villain he needs to rail against if anyone accuses him of lack of progress.
              He couldn’t blame other Republicans – now he can blame Democrats.
              The fact that the areas he campaigned in for candidates led to them winning, and those candidates who backed him in general did very well means he now has a caucus more aligned to his vision and the party has fallen in behind him.
              Remember the Repubs “screwing Obama” resulted in a second term for the guy.

  9. Gezza

     /  November 8, 2018

    Isn’t it so typical of the US that while for the rest of the world the colour for the Left is red and the colour for the Conservatives right is blue, the yanks have to fuck it up and reverse it.

    Reply
    • High Flying Duck

       /  November 8, 2018

      They also don’t really have a “left”. They have right and further right.
      All the rich luvvies support the Democrats now, while the working classes have moved to the Republicans.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  November 8, 2018

        Yes it’s a strange combo. The GOP is now the Billionaires’,the arms dealers’ and the steelworkers and sodbusters’ Party. Mind you, a lot of them are only vaguely aware of where other states are, they’re the easy target. Unreality TV stars seem divided.

        The Dems need to get themselves a candidate who’s a bit less bought and who knows how to manage identity politicians. Aljaz reported there are two successful candidates who are Muslims – might have been for governorships, though – wasn’t paying attention – and two who are native Americans. A lot more women running for the Dems than the pale male Republicans.

        I must check out these Muslim ones.

        Reply
  10. High Flying Duck

     /  November 8, 2018

    Reply
  11. Dave K

     /  November 8, 2018

    Pity he didn’t have the same class as dubya and just go sit quietly at the back of the room

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/11/biggest_loser_at_midterms_barack_obama.html

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/obama-loses-again

    What a legacy….hot air and narcissism

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  November 8, 2018

      I think you might be projecting a little. Pretty sure there some achievements to his name apart from ludicrous award of the Nobel Peace Prize for not being George W Bush. You have to remember that Republicans got control of the House and fucked things up for him at every turn. That’s the great thing about the US system for you – isn’t it?

      Reply
  12. Reply
  13. Alan Wilkinson

     /  November 8, 2018

    Trump replaces Sessions and now has control of Mueller as well as the Senate making the Democrats powerless if they try to play hardball. Senate Republicans are now in Trump’s camp and he has got rid of his enemies there.

    Those who think the election results were a Democrat win will soon discover otherwise. They will enable the Democrats to posture in the House but achieve nothing.

    Trump will be a formidable opponent via his executive powers and those of his appointees. Democrats can stop him passing laws but will wear the blame for that.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  November 8, 2018

      And of course Trump will continue to appoint judges less likely to support Democrat politically motivated claims, injunctions and cases.

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s