1 News Colmar poll – November 2018

National have bounced back in the latest Colmar Brunton poll, seemingly having survived the Jami-Lee Ross saga.

  • National 46% (up from 43)
  • Labour 43% (down from 45)
  • Greens 5% (down from 7)
  • NZ First 4% (down from 5)
  • ACT 1% (up from 0)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)

Refuse to answer 3%, undecided 10%. Fieldwork conducted 24-28 November

So it seems to be settling into a two horse race, with Greens and NZ First in the threshold danger zone.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 39% (down from 42)
  • Simon Bridges 7% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 6% (up from 5)
  • Winston Peters 4%  (no change)

That will get some dumping on bridges and talking up Colins, but with National on 46% it’s unlikely there will be a change of leader in the near future.

I wonder what Simon Lusk thinks of these results. Just last Wednesday he was trying to push a mid-thirties poll result for National – with no evidence provided of course.

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81 Comments

  1. from The Standard:

    The latest Colmar Brunton poll result has been released and to be honest the results are rather difficult to understand.

    National is up 3 to 46%. This does not accord with recent internal polling of the parties.

    https://thestandard.org.nz/latest-colmar-brunton-poll

    It isn’t hard to understand at all. Colmar Brutnon made the results quite easy to understand.

    It is also easy understand disappointment on the political left (and with a few on the political right) who hoped that Jami-Lee Ross had dragged National down. They survived that quite well. Actually very well.

    Reply
    • Strong For Life

       /  December 2, 2018

      Not surprising. The Jami-Lee Ross saga was a media beat up. The media overdid it, again, and most people tired of hearing about it. Most, with a few exceptions, could see that Ross was at fault and not well. There was also the distraction of the Soubrek immigration debacle that took the focus off Ross.

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  December 2, 2018

        Luckily for the Coalition govt NZL First has watered down the workplace reform nonsense, unfortunately for them Cullen has yet to present his (more) tax review.

        Reply
  2. duperez

     /  December 2, 2018

    Any surprise that the Ross thing would harden some resolve?

    Reply
    • I’m not surprised at all.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  December 2, 2018

        The conversation with him, Simon Bridges and Paula Bennett should not have been played, of course, but it showed that what they were doing was above board and humane.

        Reply
  3. Gerrit

     /  December 2, 2018

    Love the rhetoric at the standard. “Prove this is not a bogus poll”.

    With NZ First not squeezing in and the Greens just making the 5%, this must be a worry for the CoL.

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  December 2, 2018

      (snigger)

      Reply
    • PDB

       /  December 2, 2018

      Hard to say it’s a bogus poll as National have been steady in the mid 40%’s for a long time. Unheard of for a party coming off 9 years in govt in this country.

      Greens and NZL First showing that the minor parties always struggle in govt.

      Reply
      • Gerrit

         /  December 2, 2018

        The stranded are calling this a bogus poll and asking anyone to prove it is not one.

        They just cannot get their heads around the fact that NZ First is now leading the CoL with, for example unfettered union excess to the workplace sent to Siberia.

        That will not have pleased the union masters of Labour.

        One has to question; is Labour still in charge?

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  December 2, 2018

          Were Labour ever in charge? Winston has pretty much called all the shots from day one and continues to do so by just recently shutting down a Labour/Greens fishing industry advisory panel they wanted & as you point out watering down workplace reform. All the while they are loaded up with billions of $ of taxpayer money ready to spurge in order to buy themselves votes at the next election.

          Reply
  4. Bill Brown

     /  December 2, 2018

    Wow , I doubt many thought that would the case

    Maybe JLR was a non event and it’s more an issue with Labour and what they are doing

    Reply
  5. Gerrit

     /  December 2, 2018

    There is feedback in the community that so far we have had from Labour is increased taxation (levies) and wasteful spending (Pike River a prime example but also Jonesy showering cash like confetti). The crumbs dropping from the TWG is not helping. Talk of increased taxation that will even take the lint out of tax payers back pocket.

    Not to mention the weak performance of Ardern in regards her ministerial control over those who report to her. Nor is she even look like winning the war on poverty.

    Am not surprised Collins is rising in the polls. She is doing a lot of pastoral work in the community, not just South Auckland but nationwide.

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  December 2, 2018

      How could the the weak performance of Ardern in regards her ministerial control over those who report to her be strong rather than weak?

      Do you mean she should have sacked Curran, Whaitiri and Lees-Galloway? (and whoever else.)

      And/or do you mean she should have sacked them absolutely instantly?

      Or do you mean she should take the only real control, that is, do everything herself?

      Reply
  6. PDB

     /  December 2, 2018

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  December 2, 2018

      Not often I give Martyn an uptick. Mind you, he’s both of those quite often.

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  December 2, 2018

        Even he can see the Greens are turning off the ‘green vote’ in favour of pandering to small interest groups, many of whom are nuts.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  December 2, 2018

          Oh? Were you thinking of anyone in particular?

          Reply
        • Blazer

           /  December 2, 2018

          Totally agree..the Greens and their grandstanding have alienated voters.
          The reality is that regardless of the polls …its a long time til the next election.

          National always rely on perception..trumping reality.

          Bridges is safe…long may that be the case.Labours biggest asset since Boag screwed Brash’s chance.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  December 2, 2018

            The two videos in the link below are basically the 1ewes at 6 poll kuvrij.

            Phonetically:

            Ardin says “Poll numbers do move around a liddil bit, all still within the margin of erra, I’m still really happy that we’re finishing the year stronger than when we stardid it.We still make up a mujorridy as a coalition guvimint.”

            Bridges’ 2 second sound bite on 1ewes was pretty cringeworthy.

            “Under moy leadership National’s schtrongg … In a sense i’ts not sip-proysing having come through some very tuff ishooze.”

            Followed by a cameo appearance & very loyal remarks from the current main threat to Bridges (movie still is from their video item):

            https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-surpasses-labour-in-latest-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-nz-first-and-greens-dip-dangerously-low

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  December 2, 2018

              You can see from that video clip how heavily 1ewes is progagandising against Bridges, even down to the video clip showing creating a mental image of their favourite “rival” “assassinating” Bridges.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  December 2, 2018

              Yes, that is pretty disgusting from State TV.

  7. PartisanZ

     /  December 2, 2018

    Perhaps more people’s livelihoods depend on political graft, Chinese money and influence than we ever thought possible …?

    Reply
  8. Alan Wilkinson

     /  December 2, 2018

    No surprise. The Ross debacle produced a backlash against the Left’s attempt to exploit it let alone the loony Lusk/Slater self-promotion.

    And it gave Simon a chance to look like a manager instead of a quibbler which he took after his initial fumble.

    Early days, but National will be pretty happy.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  December 2, 2018

      National supporters are like Catholics…blind faith…nothing much ..moves them.

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  December 2, 2018

      National scored a raft of good hits on the government this term. It has comprehensively trashed their stated intention to be the “most open government ever” (there is no way back from that – they’ve totally blown it and gone in the opposite direction), showed Ardern up as an obfuscator, bullshitter, and a liar who is every bit as talented and unconcerned (and as obvious) about demonstrating her skills there as Key.

      They have called into question some very dodgy allocations of taxpayer funds by For Sale Jones, & shown time and time again that Winston is running (and ruining) the Labour & Green shows (something he will be even more likely to do as the next election approaches, if this poll trend doesn’t turn around for NZF).

      The state unions are taking this government to the cleaners. If they thought they would get an easy ride once “their” people understood their honest good intentions they are in for a bloody rude shock. And the populati is not going to like teachers getting more money when they are well paid already and have four bloody months off a year.

      Jami-Lee has been a total disaster for Jami-Lee and his associates. Everybody he’s tried to trash has come out looking like the unsuspecting victims of a callous, warped womaniser & a bitter & twisted hit-man. I have no doubt that while people can’t quite bring themselves to believe Bridges is PM material, so won’t vote for him personally in the polls, National has risen in popularity because of sympathy votes.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  December 2, 2018

        Good summary, G. Most of the media is still batting for the Left though and that is probably what most of the swing voters unconsciously absorb.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  December 2, 2018

          Wait’ll National start analysing and counting the REAL number of Kiwibuild houses and identifying who is actually buying these as we head into the election. Also, I accept the that rental housing situation is looking dangerously precarious for the coalition and particularly Labour. There is a lot of smooth talking from this coalition that can only work for so long.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  December 2, 2018

            Yes, totally agree. And Cullen looks liable to alienate centrist voters while satisfying the Lefty base. (Assuming Winston doesn’t play his veto somehow. I can see Labour going into the next election promising a CGT and Winston promising to stop it. Voters can toss a coin to predict which will happen.)

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  December 2, 2018

              I’m changing my mind about Collins, I think. The sooner the better, She is actually the ideal counter to Ardern (which actually says something about the men in their party, but Christ, look at the senior men in the coalition too).

            • PDB

               /  December 2, 2018

              Collins/ Kaye ticket is their only hope this coming election – something I took some time to warm to. Forget the two women thing, Collins won’t put off those men voting National (she has more balls than most men) but Kaye could help pick up some of the female vote that sits mainly with Ardern & soften that leadership package & provide balance. The two have worked together on policy.

            • robertguyton

               /  December 2, 2018

              Maggie!Maggie Barry for Leader! Now! Why not???
              Maggie – lead us to … VICTORY!!!!!

            • Gezza

               /  December 2, 2018

              @ PDB

              Nope. Kaye can’t pull it off against Ardern. She’s too waspish for young women & girls. Comes across in Parliament as the nasty prefect. Might appeal to the stern matrons, but not to the 18-30 somethings who’re not fiercely ambitious or competitive. She’s not going to get the star treatment that Ardern is from the current easily-swayed Jacinda-besotted media girly teams. And they’re the ones doing all the breathless, shallow, squeaking about politics.

              National has to find a bloke. He has to be young(ish) as the counterweight to Arden’s appeal to 1st & 2nd year female uni students, assorted female twitterers, and magazine-reading, facebook-using mums. If he’s got reasonable diction, that’s a good counter to the piss-poor public education system that’s produced these two godawful deadbeat English-speakers.

              Can’t be Mitchell. He sounds as thick as a brick and too much loyk Brijiz. No point people thinking Bridges has effectively just been replaced with another bloke whose accent teeth-grindingly ignorant-sounding accents belongs somewhere in Australia, like Brijiz and Ardern’s do.

              Start thinking. When we’re agreed, you can email them.

            • Gezza

               /  December 2, 2018

              Shit my proof reading’s abominable. I’m making a movie in the background and chrome’s updated itself. So with the movie program chewing up CPU resource and chrome playing up and doing crazy stuff on – I plead it’s my bloody laptop’s fault. I think you’ll get the drift.

            • Gezza

               /  December 2, 2018

              fk! *crazy stuff on me. That’s it. I’m out.

  9. alloytoo

     /  December 2, 2018

    The majority of the polling took place before ILG reversed his Karel Sroubrek decision and we learnt that both the PM and DPM lied to us (again).

    Reply
  10. robertguyton

     /  December 2, 2018

    Bounced back
    Pffffffffft!

    Reply
  11. robertguyton

     /  December 2, 2018

    Yay! Bounced back!!..to..where????
    Opposition??????????

    Reply
  12. The Consultant

     /  December 3, 2018

    Doc Martin Boots Bradbury speaks:

    The other major problem for the Green brand are their woke online activists. Nothing turns other voters off like the smug self righteous glitter beard top knot militant vegan electric bike riding 4th wave feminist Trans rights above all else Green supporters, they are a daily advert for exclusion.

    CALLING ROBERT GUYTON! ROBERT GUYTON TO THE COURTESY PHONE PLEASE. YOUR GREEN PARTY CALL IS URGENT.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  December 3, 2018

      From that post of Bomber’s:
      JAYS says:
      DECEMBER 2, 2018 AT 7:21 PM
      “…the horror take away is that despite all the madness inside National, New Zealanders still adore the National Party!”

      And precisely what has Labour done to provide a better alternative?

      Giving a serious criminal residency whilst in jail?
      Building affordable homes that the intended people can’t afford?
      Lollies for the students whilst nurses and teachers strike?
      Costing thousands of oil and gas workers their jobs whilst offering no alternative?
      Flushing $160k of seedlings down the toilet?

      Tell me, in what way is Labour any better than National?

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  December 3, 2018

        when I ask what Nats achieved in 9 years…the answer always….got NZ through the GFC,and handled’ the Christchurch…quakes! 😦

        Reply
  13. Remarkably ‘The Soap Box’ (no named writer) from Newstalk ZB ignores the Colmar poll and talks about an unpublished poll instead.

    Reply
  14. Reply
  15. So…what number did National’s internal poll settle on?

    Reply
    • robertguyton

       /  December 3, 2018

      All good, I found it: 41%
      “The Nats’ caucus was not a happy one, their overall rating had slipped to 41 per cent , teetering dangerously close to the red zone of the 30s, and behind Labour on 44. As one frothed, they were in the high 40s just a few months ago.”
      That’s pretty poor, isn’t it!

      Reply
  16. Zedd

     /  December 3, 2018

    oooooh I bet Jacinda, Winston & James/Marama are all hiding under their beds..

    btw: If you add the Govt. parties up, they are still above 50%. It is still about 2 years before the election !

    Reply
    • Zedd

       /  December 3, 2018

      Bridges says ‘It is the party vote that counts’ BUT does anyone take a ‘Leader on 7%’ that seriously ?

      OR is he just seen as a ‘seat warmer’ until they decide who will replace him.. likely NOT Judith ??

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  December 3, 2018

      Ah, but you’re forgetting how often Bomber calls upcoming elections right & has his finger on the pulse of the middle New Zealand ! ☝🏽️ 😎

      Reply
  17. Gezza

     /  December 3, 2018

    I wonder what Labour’s internal polling is showing. Christ we’re poorly served by published polls in this country. They should be happening weekly. One significant positive or negative event for any party or leader can sway the few polls done here totally & completely reverse a growing trend with an outlier result.

    Why are there so few published polls? With a “reality tv star” leader & several other attention-seeking dodgy or dopey contenders & comedians forever in te bloody infotainment news I think public interest in politics, while probably significantly under-informed, & pro-government propagandised by tv 1 & 3, has probably never been higher.

    I would have thought creating & running regular & professional polls was a fantastic business & marketing opportunity for a newcomer or 3. Polls focus people on what’s really happening in politics.

    Collins I now think has a much broader capacity to communicate with the public & even young voters – particularly males fed up with the anti-men feminism coming out of the coalition – than I previously gave her credit for.

    She has been experimenting with Twitter & possibly other social media. Despite a couple of fake news twitter gaffes which even I can’t recall & am not bothered by, her social media presence is a magnet for mainstream & social media attention. She’s riveting viewing like Muldoon was, but I think she’s smarter than him by far. The right choice of (young male) deputy & shuffling of portfolios will set National up to exploit the inevitable shortcomings of Winston’s coalition government.

    There would be little risk of someone getting pissed off they didn’t get the spokesperson role they wanted with Judith. There’s seemingly some sharp new talent in those back benches who’ve now had time to watch & learn. It’s be take it or leave it. And if you leave it, I expect your resignation on my desk tomorrow morning. I’ve got no place for whingers.

    She would easily neutralise Peters, maybe even neuter, him in Parliament. And I have a sneaking suspicion she will be more flexible in the policy settings than people expect, & will be able to target similar numbers in voter segments to those the coalition parties do.

    We need a well-led opposition & a strong leader who is a good communicator. Everybody knows that’s not Simon. I think he should pack it in over Xmas & give Collins the reins. The thing is, she can actually handle any personal & political attacks & actively turn them against her attackers, where Bridges has had to rely on people feeling sorry for him & satisfied with the performance of their spokespeople.

    Dammit. I think Corky is right. But I think Collins wouldn’t be as authoritarian a PM as he hopes if she scored the job.

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  December 3, 2018

      “Christ we’re poorly served by published polls in this country.” Was there a time when they didn’t exist? Or weren’t such a big deal? And is it their lack which sees us as how we are now?

      Seems a bit like the TV discussion – how did humankind ever do without it? Strangely it did, for whatever number of thousand years. Are polls the same?

      Reply
  18. The Consultant

     /  December 3, 2018

    Why are there so few published polls?

    Money! It costs money to run these public polls and the MSM is growing poorer, as evidenced by the endless declines in subscriptions, readership, waves of layoffs, sinking lid policies and talk of mergers.

    Plus the increasingly clickbaited, featherweight, “feelz” approach of almost every MSM nowadays likely restricts the information wanted to the most sensational and simple possible, and thus the questions asked. The classic example is the almost worthless question around “Preferred PM” which – if we are to accept those stats – would have you thinking that almost 1/3 of Labour supporters don’t prefer Adern as PM – and that’s not believable at all. I’d bet somewhere north of 95% of Labourites prefer her, but they don’t even try to break it down by party affiliation, something they still do in the US.

    I would have thought creating & running regular & professional polls was a fantastic business & marketing opportunity for a newcomer or 3. Polls focus people on what’s really happening in politics.

    DPF’s outfit does okay, as does UMR – but they’re being paid by political parties to do the work privately. Public polls? Refer back to my first point: there’s increasingly less money from the MSM to do them.

    And the costs are likely increasing at the same time. I know so many people now who do not have a landline; people in their 40’s and 50’s who would be prime targets for pollsters. Same in the US, where the response rate has dropped into single digits, requiring tens of thousands more phone calls to be made just to reach a decent sample size that works statistically.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  December 3, 2018

      You are a consultant. So I have given you the project.

      Create a popular regular low cost poll. A model that can be replicated by others. It does not need to be completely academically sound, although ideally it should, or be popularly defensible – but it must attract & grow attention across the board.

      It can be compiled from any source including the internet and/or social media, and it should be promoted vigourously via social media. It needs to prevent multiple voting. It does not matter if it is initially captured by one party’s supporters, so long as once known it is a magnet for supporters of others.

      Identify the resources needed to create & maintain it. Identify the key questions that will always be asked. They must be simple & tightly focused.

      Please provide me with an outline by noon on Friday, and your detailed proposals and an executive summary, by noon, the following Friday.

      Reply
      • The Consultant

         /  December 3, 2018

        Magda, from Absoutely Fabulous:

        No, no, no, mate. I don’t even get out of bed and piss for that kinda money!

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  December 3, 2018

          Ooo shit. Sorry mate. I just assumed you were a bloke. And had a few clues.

          Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  December 3, 2018

        The key question is whether the sampling is properly and consistently representative. I don’t see any low cost options for achieving a satisfactory answer.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  December 3, 2018

          We don’t need a satisfactory answer. We need a serious competitor or two who, while they might be criticised, scare the shit out of the existing polling companies and force them to pull their fingers out & up their bloody game. And who get more people more interested in knowing exactly WTF our politicians are up to.

          Reply
          • The Consultant

             /  December 3, 2018

            Serious competitors always emerge as long as a market is open – it is – and the money is there – and it’s not.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  December 3, 2018

              Their funding models suffer from a lack of imagination.

            • Gezza

               /  December 3, 2018

              And so do you. What’s the point of using a consultant if you have to do their thinking for them?

            • Gezza

               /  December 3, 2018

              Get a Can Do attitude & get back to me. We frequently did the impossible in my last department by doing that.

            • The Consultant

               /  December 3, 2018

              Meoooowwwwww!!!

              I wasn’t aware you were doing any thinking on this – unless by “thinking” you mean stamping your feet and demanding that “someone should do something about this”?

              “Can Do attitude” + “Department”? Ah! Another addition to the definitions in Merriam-Webster

              As a consultant I’ve already done my analytical, observational job – and explained why the number of public polls has declined, why new competitors are not appearing, and why you’d be wasting your time and money jumping in. And I retired early.

              But that won’t stop me looking forward to seeing your business vision in action on this matter, not to mention your imaginative ideas about funding models for public polls.

            • Gezza

               /  December 3, 2018

              For the purposes of this discussion, I’m a CEO of a government department.

              That makes me an ideas man with an MBA who learns jargon quickly and can talk about business models reflect back yes’s to the rgight questions of my propective employers.

              I have restructured two other departments & received commendations & moved on quickly before they collapsed like a house of cards & my successor copped the blame, the sucker.

              In all other respects except my half million dollar salary I am therefore a total waste of space, have no idea how to do a bloody thing, & frankly couldn’t organise a shit in the office’s men’s toilets.

              Bring me another consultant. This one’s ruptured. He’s no use to me.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  December 3, 2018

              @Sir Gerald, you seem to have forgotten to throw taxpayer’s money at The Consultant in order for him to pretend to achieve the impossible.

            • Gezza

               /  December 3, 2018

              But thank you, btw for your expression of interest. My PA will organise a bouquet for you in appreciation of your minimal lack of effort. Would you prefer pansies or buttercups? 😐

            • Gezza

               /  December 3, 2018

              We never discuss the money publicly & you can’t make me or get that info via the OIA because protected from disclose as commercially sensitive, Sir Alan.

              Also there maye been some protected legal advice if any of my underlings including the CFO & CLO know WTF they’re doing.

              Usually they’re among the few who do, after I’ve had a new Vision, restructured, & thrown the whole bloody organisation into total chaos to let everyone know I’ve arrived. Other underlings can work out the new Outcomes, Goals, Objectives & KPI’s. I’m paid to lead the organisation with my vision, not to know whether & how any of it actually work.

              I think there may be some common folk working for us somewhere below my senior management team level. We needed to let the ones who know what they’re doing go. They’re a hindrance.

            • Gezza

               /  December 3, 2018

              “Can Do attitude” + “Department”? Ah! Another addition to the definitions in Merriam-Webster

              Simply citing back the mantra cited to us by one of our stream of new fuckwit CEO’s who on appointment brought in a whole raft of overpaid business-oriented “consultants” to review every service to justify increasing everybody’s workloads by making us contribute to endless, pointless executive wanking nonsense jargon and weekly and monthly reports to half the useless tossers he appointed beneath him, and who caused more additonal bloody work for everybody, covering their asses and doing the management tasks they should have been doing, than any actual practical genuinely useful critical-outcome-oriented work they ever did.

              They all got dumped by the next CEO and the bloody cycle kept repeating.

              I was one of those who could pick the gems of out all the garbage and make things actually work so we COULD actually keep doing more with less, because we still had to get the real bloody work done on top of their utter crap.

              The “can do” attitude went from being a sick joke, and another piece of never-ending, Chief Executive-fad-of-the-month rotating thru the entire public service, meaningless piece of management-speak, to an actual necessity.

              We turned that phrase into countless practical ways of making lemonade from the lemons in charge time & again. And they got the fucking benefits before sodding off to ruin some other department. All we ever got was more Special High Intensity Training from consultants, with every new CEO, fucking it all up again.

        • Gezza

           /  December 3, 2018

          @ Alan – I don’t think it really matters all that much that all political polls have to be put through the correct statistical wringers for validation. I think Stuff & The Herald could run them weekly, one or two questions a day and close them off quickly, as an experiment. They already run simple polls on topical issues.

          If they are subject to manipulation by multiple users IDs from any particular party I wouldn’t be overly bothered & closing them early might mitigate against that.

          The other virtually single published poll now (Colmar Brunton) can be used to reveal a statistically more accurate picture for comparison during their too infrequent appearances.

          Even if this experiment doesn’t work, I still think there’s an opportunity someone smart enuf could exploit & find a way to make it pay for itself. One day, someone will, because it exists, and they’ll break out of the polling companies paradigms.

          Reply
  1. 1 News Colmar poll – November 2018 — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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