UMR polling history

Reasons why it is necessary to be very sceptical of one off ‘leaks’ of internal party polling are that there are no details, no polling method, no margin of error, and no history – one off results give no indication of ongoing accuracy or history.

We can get some idea of UMR polling history now because Bryce Edwards has tweeted

UMR’s most recently-leaked internal poll for the Labour Party has National plummeting to 9 points behind:

The latest result here is a markedly different result to the latest Colmar Brunton poll BUT it was done about a month earlier (the exact polling period isn’t given) so the UMR poll was done in the heat of the Jami-Lee Ross upheaval for National. And it is often claimed that UMR tends to favour Labour over National (unverified).

The previous Colmar Brunton poll was done at a similar time (15-10 October) to the last UMR result here (late October). Comparisons:

  • Labour – UMR 46%, Colmar 45%
  • National – UMR 37%, Colmar 43%
  • Greens – UMR 7%, Colmar 7%
  • NZ First – UMR 7%, Colmar 5%

So Labour is virtually the same, Greens are exactly the same (albeit rounded to a whole number), NZ First are a bit different, and National are quite different – 6%

This could be explained by the timing being slightly different, a week over the Ross story could have had a big temporary impact. Or it could be that either UMR or Colmar (or both) are less accurate with national, or even that one struck an outlier poll (statistically this can happen in 1 out of 20 polls).

Going back to the Colmar July poll (28 Jul-1 Aug) and the UMR polls on either side of that (when the political scene was less volatile):

  • Labour – UMR July 45% August 43%, Colmar 42%
  • National – UMR July 39% August 43%, Colmar 45%
  • Greens – UMR July 7% August 7% , Colmar 6%
  • NZ First – UMR July 6% August 4%, Colmar 5%

Greens and NZ First are very similar.

UMR has Labour higher than Colmar, and has National lower and fluctuating more.

UMR had National 39% in July and 37% in late October, and otherwise in the 41-43% range over the year. Colmar had national in the 43-46% range through the year.

In January Colmar had Labour at 48% and in the 42-45% range.

In January UMR had Labour markedly different at 40% and in the 41-46% range since then.

I think January could be the most unreliable month due to many people being on holiday then.

Polls are of interest to those interested in politics, but are a temporary and inexact measure of party support.

18 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  10th December 2018

    National will probably poll higher in the New Year when Simon steps down.
    The coalition has given them lots of ammunition & being shameless in Opposition like Labour were they only need to keep firing it.

  2. robertguyton

     /  10th December 2018

    Oh dear! That word cloud!
    Poor Simon.

    • Gezza

       /  10th December 2018

      😳

      Eh?

      • robertguyton

         /  10th December 2018

        • robertguyton

           /  10th December 2018

        • Gezza

           /  10th December 2018

          At least he doesn’t advocate cannibalism as one of your posters did on your thread on TS

          https://thestandard.org.nz/the-future-is/#comment-1560074

          • robertguyton

             /  10th December 2018

            Wouldn’t make any difference to his cloud if he did.
            It’s pretty … average.

            • Gezza

               /  10th December 2018

              I’m taking it from your failure to criticise your friend Gully over at TS on your thread that you are in favour of introducing cannibalism as one way of dealing with protein shortages in your brave new innovative solutions Greenie ideal world.

              I don’t like this idea. I don’t think it’s going to be Labour Party policy. Have you forwarded this idea to the Green Party for feedback yet?

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  10th December 2018

          The one word to describe Bridges shows clearly the viciousness of the average Lefty towards their political opponents, Robert.

  3. Alan Wilkinson

     /  10th December 2018

    The crunch question is how well does UMR/Colmar/etc polling match election results.

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