Reasons why it is necessary to be very sceptical of one off ‘leaks’ of internal party polling are that there are no details, no polling method, no margin of error, and no history – one off results give no indication of ongoing accuracy or history.
We can get some idea of UMR polling history now because Bryce Edwards has tweeted
UMR’s most recently-leaked internal poll for the Labour Party has National plummeting to 9 points behind:
The latest result here is a markedly different result to the latest Colmar Brunton poll BUT it was done about a month earlier (the exact polling period isn’t given) so the UMR poll was done in the heat of the Jami-Lee Ross upheaval for National. And it is often claimed that UMR tends to favour Labour over National (unverified).
The previous Colmar Brunton poll was done at a similar time (15-10 October) to the last UMR result here (late October). Comparisons:
- Labour – UMR 46%, Colmar 45%
- National – UMR 37%, Colmar 43%
- Greens – UMR 7%, Colmar 7%
- NZ First – UMR 7%, Colmar 5%
So Labour is virtually the same, Greens are exactly the same (albeit rounded to a whole number), NZ First are a bit different, and National are quite different – 6%
This could be explained by the timing being slightly different, a week over the Ross story could have had a big temporary impact. Or it could be that either UMR or Colmar (or both) are less accurate with national, or even that one struck an outlier poll (statistically this can happen in 1 out of 20 polls).
Going back to the Colmar July poll (28 Jul-1 Aug) and the UMR polls on either side of that (when the political scene was less volatile):
- Labour – UMR July 45% August 43%, Colmar 42%
- National – UMR July 39% August 43%, Colmar 45%
- Greens – UMR July 7% August 7% , Colmar 6%
- NZ First – UMR July 6% August 4%, Colmar 5%
Greens and NZ First are very similar.
UMR has Labour higher than Colmar, and has National lower and fluctuating more.
UMR had National 39% in July and 37% in late October, and otherwise in the 41-43% range over the year. Colmar had national in the 43-46% range through the year.
In January Colmar had Labour at 48% and in the 42-45% range.
In January UMR had Labour markedly different at 40% and in the 41-46% range since then.
I think January could be the most unreliable month due to many people being on holiday then.
Polls are of interest to those interested in politics, but are a temporary and inexact measure of party support.
Your NZ 
Gezza
/ 10th December 2018National will probably poll higher in the New Year when Simon steps down.
The coalition has given them lots of ammunition & being shameless in Opposition like Labour were they only need to keep firing it.
robertguyton
/ 10th December 2018Oh dear! That word cloud!
Poor Simon.
Gezza
/ 10th December 2018😳
Eh?
robertguyton
/ 10th December 2018robertguyton
/ 10th December 2018Gezza
/ 10th December 2018At least he doesn’t advocate cannibalism as one of your posters did on your thread on TS
https://thestandard.org.nz/the-future-is/#comment-1560074
robertguyton
/ 10th December 2018Wouldn’t make any difference to his cloud if he did.
It’s pretty … average.
Gezza
/ 10th December 2018I’m taking it from your failure to criticise your friend Gully over at TS on your thread that you are in favour of introducing cannibalism as one way of dealing with protein shortages in your brave new innovative solutions Greenie ideal world.
I don’t like this idea. I don’t think it’s going to be Labour Party policy. Have you forwarded this idea to the Green Party for feedback yet?
Alan Wilkinson
/ 10th December 2018The one word to describe Bridges shows clearly the viciousness of the average Lefty towards their political opponents, Robert.
Alan Wilkinson
/ 10th December 2018The crunch question is how well does UMR/Colmar/etc polling match election results.
Gezza
/ 10th December 2018I think one of the online rags or a blog did an analysis of some of them following the last election.
Gezza
/ 10th December 2018Also possibly of interest:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election#Forecasts
Duker
/ 11th December 2018Notice the huge change in Colmar Brunton a week out from election !
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election
roughly a week or so apart , they went from 40 to 46 for national AND labour went from 44 to 37. Did they change their methodology or something as its at the extreme of the margin of error ( +-6%)
yet CB numbers for national in the previous month bounced around the 39-41 level while those for labour were well above 40.
Election night was 36.9 for labour 44.4 for national.
Gezza
/ 10th December 2018Might be this I was thinking of – RNZ
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/341123/poll-predictions-prove-practically-precise
Gezza
/ 10th December 2018Or this
The polls correctly pick election result
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11925726
Alan Wilkinson
/ 10th December 2018I didn’t see any of those show the UMR performance.
Gezza
/ 10th December 2018Ok. I was leaving it up to you to roar through it all. You know I hate numbers.