No confidence vote in Theresa May confirmed

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has made a botch of Brexit since her calling of a snap election backfired.

A no confidence vote has been signalled for days. It looks like it’s about to happen.

May may be responsible to an extent for the growing mess, but if she gets the boot they are still left with a Brexit mess.

9:45pm NZ time May is about to address the media outside 10 Downing Street.

She has started. She says she will contest the no confidence vote strongly, then launches into a spiel saying how great she has been over the last forty years. So I  turned it off.

Next step is the vote, I think in the morning NZ time.

46 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  12th December 2018

    May is a disastrous strategist judged by results. She picked a Cabinet hopelessly split over the Brexit policy she claimed to be implementing and reaped the inevitable consequences worsened by truly hopeless negotiating tactics.

    Has she ever left a mess for whoever has to pick up the pieces.

  2. Missy

     /  12th December 2018

    Pete, you beat me to it!!

    I just got into work and saw the news.

    The vote is set down for tonight, Theresa May is expected to address the media outside number 10 shortly.

  3. MaureenW

     /  12th December 2018

    It’s about time she’s been hopeless. Who is likely to take over? As an aside Britain is starting to resemble Australia in the PM stakes (still a few more needed to catch up though)

    • Missy

       /  12th December 2018

      MPs are positioning themselves, but Dominic Raab is the favourite, followed by Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid and Michael Gove.

      • MaureenW

         /  12th December 2018

        I just took a look at the Guardian running profiles on each of them. Do you have any preference?

        • Missy

           /  12th December 2018

          My preference would be Sajid Javid, however, I believe Dominic Raab would be better as an interim PM to get through Brexit.

          I just wouldn’t want Boris Johnson or Michael Gove.

          Sajid Javid has given his support to Theresa May, and I am not sure if he has leadership ambitions just yet. I don’t think he will want to take on the poison chalice of Brexit and trying to sort out the mess, so Johnson or Raab will be the most likely of those four I think.

          There are also a couple of others that have been talked about, notably Amber Rudd, Esther McVey, and Penny Mordaunt. Also, Jeremy Hunt and Liam Fox are expected to be contenders.

      • Blazer

         /  13th December 2018

        can’t see pomgolians having a P.M called Raab or Sajid Javid.

        • Missy

           /  13th December 2018

          Why not? Are you suggesting that they wouldn’t be competent based on their name?

          • Blazer

             /  13th December 2018

            not at all….I’m suggesting those names don’t go down well with pommie prejudice.

            • Missy

               /  13th December 2018

              In what way do you think their names won’t go down well with the British electorate? And how do you know what the British electorate think about them? Or is it that you are projecting your own prejudice onto an electorate you obviously don’t know and don’t understand?

            • Blazer

               /  13th December 2018

              when the pomgolians have a house of lords,a royal family poncing around in horse and carriages,tophats and high tea,and refer to the AB’s as an invitation team from the South Pacific…there are alot of things that are still not ‘cricket’ in her majestys…realm…my dear.

            • Missy

               /  13th December 2018

              Blazer:

              1. Do not call me my dear, it is patronising and demeaning.
              2. Using the term pomgolians is actually very immature, and makes you look like a child trying to be funny but isn’t.
              3. Please show me where the British people have referred to the ABs as an invitation team from the South Pacific? I never saw/heard that once during their recent tour
              4. You still haven’t explained the following:
              a. In what way do you think the names of Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid won’t go down well with the British electorate
              b. How do you know what the British electorate think about either of them
              c. Is it more that you are projecting some form of personal prejudice onto an electorate you know know or understand.

              Your whole attitude towards the British electorate is judgemental and generalised seemingly based on your own deep seated prejudices. Please either back up your statement or withdraw it, what you said just makes you sound prejudiced against Sajid Javid and Dominic Raab based entirely on their names.

  4. Missy

     /  12th December 2018

    Theresa May has just finished speaking, I missed most of it unfortunately as work interrupted.

    From what I heard of the speech she is digging in her heels, but also she is using the fear of Corbyn to try and keep her job, though I think the more she uses him as the bogeyman the less it is a threat.

    • Gezza

       /  12th December 2018

      I’ll check out the Aljaz tv midnight news coverage. It’s been quite good when I’ve bothered to look. Seems fairly neutral, they haven’t taken an anti-immigrant angle in their news reporting, – although I think they’re running a documentary this month on the Far Right rise in European countries that their promo ad indicates features Nigel Farage as one of them, & that will, I suspect, be heavily slanted against rising (but I think, understandable) nationalist sentiment in Europe.

      • Missy

         /  13th December 2018

        I will be interested in your take on her body language, a body language expert on the radio was quite negative about her body language.

    • Missy

       /  13th December 2018

      Snap! Tagged that on the bottom of my comment.

      • Blazer

         /  13th December 2018

        snap…exactly….she didn’t mention excusing herself from a snap…election before 2022.

  5. Missy

     /  13th December 2018

    Theresa May is currently addressing Conservative MPs ahead of the vote.

    Journalists have been crunching the numbers based on what MPs have been saying publicly, it is expected that Theresa May will win the vote relatively easily.

    It is speculated that she will win because MPs don’t think it is the right time for a leadership election rather than support and love for her. There are also some speculating that MPs who have been supporting her today may change their mind.

    Theresa May has told the 1922 Committee she will not lead the party into the next election.

    • Gezza

       /  13th December 2018

      Your summary in paras 2 & 3 above was also the consensus of the various UK & London-based reporters on Aljaz tv midnight news, Missy. They only showed exerpts of her speech.

      Two reporters agreed that while the EU hierarchy was publicly, bombastically insistent this is the only deal: there will be no changes, there is still room for changes ahead of a No Deal by way of “clarifications” & they expected this will happen.

      I didn’t see enuf of her speech or Presser to form a view on her body language; I thought she was genuinely determined & angry, but stilted as usual, & reading out what she had to say didn’t convey a genuine conviction she was confident about how things would turn out.

      The reporters were dismissive of her threat that removing her would lead to a general election & the election of Corbyn – whose position on Brexit they couldn’t fathom now anyway.

      • Missy

         /  13th December 2018

        It is the general consensus here, even among those that think she should go. The feedback on the radio about her speech to the 1922 committee is that it wasn’t great and didn’t go down too well at all.

        It is possible that this vote of no confidence may scare the EU into offering something, but most don’t think they will make any changes. Many believed that Cameron would get concessions ahead of announcing a referendum despite the EU being publicly intransigent about it, he didn’t, and all through the negotiations many journalists and pundits (mostly pro remain) would talk up the EU being generous and not actually carrying through with their public comments – they weren’t and they did carry through with their public comments with very few compromises. I am rather cynical about the possibility of the EU doing anything that will help Theresa May get the deal through, many in the EU have publicly backed a second referendum, they have publicly vilified those that support and voted Leave, they have said on more than one occasion they hope that the UK reverses Brexit. The EU will be hoping that this will force the UK to cancel Brexit, or at least hold a second referendum. They will be wanting to undermine UK democracy to benefit the EU.

        Your take on her body language coincides with what the expert on the radio this morning said, that she was determined and very angry, she also said she projected a sense of feeling betrayed.

        Yep, I don’t think many are buying into her threat of a Corbyn Government if she is removed, if anything, depending on who gets the leadership, removing her is more likely to reduce the threat of a Corbyn Government.

        Corbyn hasn’t called a motion of no confidence in the Government as he doesn’t have the numbers for it to pass at the moment, and the general take is that the Government would only fail a confidence vote if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed as the DUP would dissolve the Confidence & Supply Agreement. At the moment the C&S agreement still stands and the DUP would vote with the Government.

        • Gezza

           /  13th December 2018

          Aljaz’s reporter/presenter consensus was also that she would survive the no confidence vote probably by a small margin, leaving her unchallengeable for a year, but that there would be pressure for her to go back for face-saving “clarifications” which might satisfy the EU.

          • Missy

             /  13th December 2018

            That is the general feeling. Some think if it is only 1 or 2 there may be pressure heaped on her to resign, but I don’t think she will resign.

  6. Missy

     /  13th December 2018

    Voting is under way. The polls are open between 1800 and 2000 and results are expected by about 2030/2100.

  7. Missy

     /  13th December 2018

    A result is due shortly in the vote, the media are reporting they have been called into the committee room where the result will be announced.

    • Missy

       /  13th December 2018

      one journalist has reported that they have been told the result will be announced at 9pm.

      • Missy

         /  13th December 2018

        A podium has gone up outside Number 10. As one very aware person said on twitter, it is big, it could mean a) she lost or b) she won

        • Missy

           /  13th December 2018

          For those who may jump in with some nasty reply, the above comment is entirely sarcastic.

  8. Missy

     /  13th December 2018

    Parliamentary Party does have confidence in Theresa May.

    • Missy

       /  13th December 2018

      200 votes for her

      117 votes of no confidence

      Pretty much what was expected by most, maybe a few more have no confidence than many were predicting.

    • Gezza

       /  13th December 2018

      By what margin, did they say?

      • Gezza

         /  13th December 2018

        Oh, sorry, crossed with yours just above

      • Missy

         /  13th December 2018

        83 votes.

        When the result was announced, the overall result then the breakdown was announced.

        The PM is to speak soon.

        • Gezza

           /  13th December 2018

          I’ll see if Aljaz will carry this live.

        • Gezza

           /  13th December 2018

          A commentator being interviewed is saying Theresa May started off with a lot of backing and has muffed it badly – that if 117 of her MPs want her out of the job, she is in danger if a vote of no confidence in the government is called (eg by Corbyn, who is under a lot of pressure from Scottish National Party and others to call one) and some of those 117 vote against her? (I doubt it.)

          Their cameras are no the door of No 10, so they will be showing it live.

          Another reporter is saying he no views so far, people are still digesting what just happened and all the implications.

          • Gezza

             /  13th December 2018

            *on the door

          • Missy

             /  13th December 2018

            Conservative MPs won’t vote with the opposition in a vote of no confidence in the Government, the key for any confidence vote to pass the opposition will need to get the DUP to vote with them, and I don’t think they will as long as the Withdrawal Agreement is not passed.

            There may be one or two MPs that potentially could vote against the Government if the withdrawal agreement doesn’t pass, but they would be stupid to as at least one of them is a Remainer in a Leave constituency, and her position is already shaky as she has a small majority, if a General Election resulted from a confidence vote she would almost certainly be out.

            No-one knows exactly how much backing she had going into the vote tonight, the media speculated that it was over 200, but realistically there were only about 166 MPs that had definitely said they will support her, the assumption was she had a lot of support as only about 40-50 MPs would publicly state they were definitely voting against her, and it was expected only about 60-80 would vote against her, so about 50 or so more MPs voted against May than was expected. That will have many thinking she lost support when she may not have.

            • Gezza

               /  13th December 2018

              She’s on!

            • Gezza

               /  13th December 2018

              And not reading from a script

            • Gezza

               /  13th December 2018

              But possibly from an unseen teleprompter – she’s making corrections like she misread something.

            • Gezza

               /  13th December 2018

              And that was it, no questions, back inside.

            • Missy

               /  13th December 2018

              Just more of the same from her, trotting out the same lines, almost as if she says them enough she will start believing it.

            • Gezza

               /  13th December 2018

              One commentator said he thinks in winning, she’s stuck with s deal no one likes, & in winning, she’s lost, to the Right Wing of the party, headed by (or represented by) JRM – and that when this was put to JRM, he agreed.

              Gotta go. Thanks for your reports Missy. You always make it interesting.

  9. Zedd

     /  13th December 2018

    I actual think Teresa should take the advice of the buddha: ‘when you find yourself alone on the path (to your goal) then stand up & charge forward like an elephant in the jungle’

    She was a ‘remainer’ so it is likely harder for her to say ‘Lets do this’ :/ 😀