Political year review – the parties 2018

A lot of politics and politicians fly under the media radar. Some MPs make the headlines, because the have prominent jobs, because they seek publicity, or because publicity seeks them, or they cock up. Here’s a few of my thoughts and impressions on the 2018 political year.

Party-wise I don’t think there is much of note.

National and Labour have settled into competing for top party status through the year, with the poll lead fluctuating. It’s far too soon to call how this will impact on the 2020 election, with both parties having problems but still in the running.

Greens and NZ First have also settled in to competing for second level party honours. Nothing drastic has gone wrong for either, but they are both struggling to impress in the polls, and they keep flirting with the threshold. again too soon to call how this will impact on the next election.

ACT is virtually invisible, and unless something drastic changes will remain largely an MP rather than a party.

TOP is trying to reinvent itself without Gareth Morgan leading but Morgan is having trouble letting go of his influence. They have a lot of work to do to build a new profile with whoever they choose as new leader. As with any party without an MP they have an uphill battle with media and with the threshold.

The New Conservative Party is not getting any publicity, apart from their deputy leader posting at Whale Oil, which won’t do much for their credibility. The media seem disinterested, which is the kiss of political death.

No other party looks like making an impression.

With NZ First and Greens expected to struggle to maintain support while in Government (as have support parties in the past), one prospect is that the political landscape and the next election will be a two party race, with Labour and National competing to earn the votes to become a single party Government, which would be a first under MMP.

It’s too soon to call on this. A major factor could be whether voters are happy to see support parties fade away out of contention, or whether enough voters decide small party checks on power are important to maintain.

If the latter this may benefit the Greens IF voters aren’t too worried about a Labour+Green coalition who would have confidence in getting more revolutionary with a second term mandate.

For NZ First much may depend on how let down some of their support feels over a lack of living up to their promises on things like immigration and dumping the Maori seats. A lot may also depend on how Winston Peters weathers another term and whether he stands again.

Winners?

Labour have won back a position as a top dog party after struggling for nearly all of the nine years they were in Opposition.

National continue to win a surprising level of support as long as individual MPs aren’t trying to sabotage the party. The Ross rampage is unlikely to be repeated as other MPs will have seen it as little more than self destructive of an individual’s political future.

So joint winners, sort of but with no prize, and no party deserving of a runner-up place.

17 Comments

  1. robertguyton

     /  12th December 2018

    The present coalition Government will win the next election. And the one after that. Jacinda will lead that coalition for at least that long. Praise the Lord!

    • Have you got any evidence of that?

      Obviously you can’t have evidence of the future – especially in politics.

      Will Ardern want to keep leading? Family can have a strong pull away from work for some parents.

      Will Ardern put more of her words into actual action? She will need to do more than play the media to keep her support.

      NZ First and Greens are far from a done deal next election. As is National versus Labour. This is all obvious, except perhaps to the blindly devoted.

  2. robertguyton

     /  12th December 2018

    Have you any evidence that the leak was from Labour?
    You made the claim in a headline. Who needs to provide evidence around here? Only me?

    • Playing the lone victim won’t get much sympathy here, especially with your record.

      Evidence helps make anyone’s argument. Lame or ridiculous claims with no evidence are often counter-productive to attempts to make points.

      On the Labour polls, there is ample circumstantial evidence that Labour must have been involved or allowed it to happen without protest or concern. And there is no evidence to the contrary – notably no argument from you apart from trying to do your usual disruption of a topic you don’t like being aired.

      You could have just said that you disagreed, and maybe explained why, but that’s not your MP.

      You may notice I don’t waste much of my time explaining things to you, because it seems futile. You frequently defeat the purpose of your incursions here.

      • robertguyton

         /  12th December 2018

        On the National MP who is repeatedly leaking there is ample circumstantial evidence that only a National MP can be involved and there is no evidence to the contrary.
        I’m expecting a headline from you, Pete, that states “Leaker a Nat MP!”

        • You’re wrong.

          There is ample evidence that an ex-National MP distributed a bunch of stuff to media and to a blogger (or his associate). ‘Whale Oil’ has made it clear they favour drip feeding potentially damaging information as an attack tactic.

          So the drip feeding of internal National information could be driven by a range of media or activists, or by an ex-National MP. Or by one or more current national MPs. Or a combination.

          I think it is almost certain the drip feeding is not being orchestrated by or approved of by the National leadership or party.

          So it could be a number of peeeople

  3. unitedtribes2

     /  12th December 2018

    Who is the deputy ready of the New Conservative Party who comments on WO. under what name?

  4. Gezza

     /  12th December 2018

    😮 The stakes are high now. I’ve put my money down. 💪

    If National replace Simon Bridges with a new leader in the first six months of the New Year, my local dairy owner owes me a $2 packet of jet planes lollies. 👌

    If they don’t, I owe him one. 😦

    • Gezza

       /  12th December 2018

      Who’s got it in for jet planes lollies ! 😡

      • PDB

         /  12th December 2018

        I like the old shaped version over the newer version. Milk Bottles are crap now though – not as nice as they used to be.

  5. Strong For Life

     /  12th December 2018

    I think Labour will win the next election but there are a few what-ifs. Shane Jones is a concern. He is handing money out willy-nilly from his tax-payer funded pork barrel and his arrogance is such that only he knows best where to spend it. I think much of this money will be wasted with little, or nothing, to show for it. Media are doing a poor job holding Jones to account but this may change if any sort of corruption or wasteful spending comes to light, which it will.

  6. PDB

     /  12th December 2018

    PG: “Will Ardern want to keep leading?”

    If that’s the case she better start soon.

  7. Alan Wilkinson

     /  12th December 2018

    Despite showing few clues about anything, Labour has survived the year with the help of a fawning and sexist media.

    That is the real story.

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