Peters claims “immigration has fallen quite dramatically under this Government”

Immigration numbers were a big discussion point in last year’s election campaign. Labour campaigned last on reducing the number of immigrants coming to New Zealand – (April 2017): Andrew Little’s big call to cut 50,000 immigrants

“We have typically had inward migration, net migration of 20 to 25,000 – you want to target that sort of level,” Little says.

They revised that:

  • Cut number of immigrants by 20,000-30,000 from last year’s 74,200

That would have taken immigration numbers down to 44,000-54,000.

Winston Peters campaigned on a more drastic cut. From where do the parties stand on immigration?

NZ First leader Winston Peters has vowed to drastically reduce net immigration well below what Labour wants, to a net migration level of around 10,000 a year.

His message to voters who want a big drop in immigration levels is that Labour can’t be trusted, given they had only recently called for sizeable cuts, and National will continue the “economic treason” of “mass immigration”.

RNZ (October 2017): NZ First loses battle on migrant numbers

…the party was less successful in its push to cut net immigration to just 10,000 a year.

Instead, the agreement sticks to Labour’s plan to reduce net migration by 20,000 to 30,000.

In a Q+A interview 31 July 2018:

Corrin Dann: How is it fair, for those struggling to get into houses in Auckland,  that you are continuing, your Government, to run a policy of record migration levels, a boom that is continuing?

Winston Peters: You can’t get away with that. The record was seventy two thousand eight hundred.

Corrin Dann: And now it’s sixty five.

Winston Peters: Sixty five and falling, yes, And it’ll be far more focussed now, and it will possibly focus come all the way down another thirty, in all about between twenty five and thirty thousand, somewhere in that region. But we’ve also got to watch the employment market to ensure that none of our export product is being hindered by a lack of staff.

That’s likely to be acknowledging the need for dairy farm workers, vineyard workers, fruit pickers.

Corrin Dann: You told your supporters you wanted it at ten thousand.

Winston Peters: Yeah well I lost the argument because I didn’t get enough votes because people like you said it wouldn’t work. Now you say it will.

In an interview on Newstalk XB perhaps ironically headlined Misinformation around the UN migration compact is wrong Larry Williams (on National Party reaction to the UN Compact on Immigration being agreed to by the Government, “Well they’ve stated today, simon bridges told me they’ll scrap they, they will rescind it if the become the Government. What do you say about that?”

Winston Peters:

“Well they won’t, they were the ones that started this.

“And I might add, immigration has fallen quite dramatically under this Government. It was rising under the last Government. That’s what I say about that sort of dog whistle statement”

Net migration has fallen in the last year, but I wouldn’t call it a drastic fall. Stats NZ: Net migration is lowest since 2015

Annual net migration has eased to its lowest level in three years, Stats NZ said today. For the year ended October 2018, it fell to 61,800.

Overall, net migration was down 8,900 from the October 2017 year, reflecting both fewer migrants arriving in New Zealand and more leaving the country.

For the October 2018 year compared with the October 2017 year:

  • migrant arrivals were 128,100, down 3,500
  • migrant departures were 66,400, up 5,400.

And this monthly net migration chart shows a slight trend downwards.

That doesn’t look like “immigration has fallen quite dramatically under this Government”.

 

33 Comments

  1. Duker

     /  December 20, 2018

    The graph of ‘monthly net’ migration doesnt tell the whole picture , as a small change monthly – say 1000- is 12,000 over a full year .
    This graphic from Stats removing NZ citizens from the numbers gives a far better indicator
    as of course NZ citizens are not under government control

    Departures of non NZ citizens is up 16% year or year

  2. Blazer

     /  December 20, 2018

    love this…’ Yeah well I lost the argument because I didn’t get enough votes because people like you said it wouldn’t work. Now you say it will.’.

  3. kluelis

     /  December 20, 2018

    England 130,000 square km. Population 55million
    New Zeal 270,000 square km. Population 4.7 million.
    So England is half the size of NZ with a population 50 million more.
    They cope.
    Yet NZ with double the land area and 50 million less
    and some folks are adamant we have too many people here.
    Is that crass greed selfish or plain stupid?
    Sometimes we Kiwis are guilty of insular smugness we ought to be ashamed of.

    • Gezza

       /  December 20, 2018

      😳 Frankly I’m of the view our insular smugness is something that we should be proud of ?

      • kluelis

         /  December 20, 2018

        My point exactly Geeza.

        • Gezza

           /  December 20, 2018

          Except we’re not really insular are we? Kiwis are well-travelled, we’re well connected trade & diplomacy-wise with the rest of the world, we’s sinking under the weight of tourists & we can all see what happens with big influxes of mgrants from looking at Auckland & other places around the world.

          I think we just know how to appreciate having room to breathe.

          • PartisanZ

             /  December 20, 2018

            ‘Kiwis’ according to Duker’s figures also come and go, migrate away and return in rather large numbers which tends to indicate that being ‘Kiwi’ may not mean very much to them …?

            • Gezza

               /  December 20, 2018

              Name me some you know of who don’t regard themselves as Kiwis. I’ll check them out.

    • Gerrit

       /  December 20, 2018

      Problem is that you wont be allowed to build the infrastructure to house, feed, provide jobs, build schools, hospitals, roads, railways, electrical generation and distribution, etc., etc., etc.

      Ask the Greens if you can build the massive new infrastructure required.

      Britain has had 2000 plus years to build the infrastructure, New Zealand not even 200.

      What comes first;

      The infrastructure required for 55 million people (funded by 5 million people) or the 55 million people flooding the existing inadequate infrastructure?

      New Zealand cannot manage the 60,000 per year immigrants, infrastructure wise, currently so how will you ever get to 55 million?

      • kluelis

         /  December 20, 2018

        Japan is only a third bigger in land area than NZ (a lot of it mountainous) yet has a population of 125 million i.e = 25 times larger than New Zealand. Yet they are one of the most advanced societies in the world. It can be done. But is there the will? Right now the greedy selfish won’t rules. Sad.

        • Duker

           /  December 20, 2018

          But Japan has only gone from 121 mill in 1985 to 126 mill in 2018.
          Auckland has doubled in that time -811K to 1.6 mill
          What has Japan done again ? Their population only doubled over 80 or so years from 1925 to 2018

        • Gerrit

           /  December 20, 2018

          Nothing to do with greed or rules or anything. Japanese have had, like Britain, 2000 years plus to gradually build the infrastructure that served their growing populations.

          New Zealand has had 200 years.

          For 5 million people to fund and build the infrastructure that accommodates 100+ million people in a few years is idiotic and impossible.

          There is neither to ability or desire by the current 5 million people to build or fund the infrastructure. Politically it is not a football to be kicked around.

          In 1800 years yes New Zealand will have 100 million people.

          • kluelis

             /  December 20, 2018

            England did not build any serious infrastructure till post 1850. England’s greatest population surge occurred between 1850 and 1901 a mere 50 years at a time we would now describe as being primitive. A 20 mill increase in a primitive country half the size of ours in 50 years was achieved. We can do it but not if you remain insular and selfish

    • Duker

       /  December 20, 2018

      Pointless comparing similar sized countries which have 15x (UK) or 30x (Japan) the population
      They didnt double their population every 30 years or so to get there.

  4. The Consultant

     /  December 20, 2018

    Immigration: a problem that Winston Peters has never solved despite being a significant coalition partner in three governments now and clearly throwing his weight around in areas like fisheries, horse breeding, employment laws and such like, despite having only 7% of the vote.

    But of course that leaves it in place to be demonised in retirement homes at the next election.

    For Winston this is not a software bug, it’s a feature.

    • Duker

       /  December 20, 2018

      Significant coalition partner ?
      This is only his second coalition government. Previously he was 2 x confidence and supply with labour which gives you diddly squat

      • The Consultant

         /  December 20, 2018

        If you have confidence and supply to have influence – if you want to use it. As I’ve pointed out, it’s in Winnie’s interest not to have this problem solved, which is why he’s never tried to solve it.

        • Duker

           /  December 20, 2018

          Ask Maori party about their influence- oh thats right that got the Kermadec Sanctuary bill put on the shelf.
          Cabinet is where influence is and unless you have a seat there – confidence and supply parties dont- then you just get to have a slow plod or wild ride on some minor ministry

          • The Consultant

             /  December 20, 2018

            If you want to use it….

            • Duker

               /  December 20, 2018

              its a myth about power. even Ardern and Robertson find they cant do things they want to or in the time they want them done.
              You clearly have little experience of government, maybe a school board

            • The Consultant

               /  December 20, 2018

              Nothing mythical about special tax breaks for good looking horses, knocking back controls on fishing vessels, pushing back on unions, and so forth.

              Plenty of power for those promises it would seem.

              But on immigration it’s just the usual Winstonian hot air.

              And since we’re descending to mindless insults, are you a NZ First supporter, defending your man to the last like a Trumpist? Or are you simply a Labour supporter so tribalistic and one-eyed that you’ve now been reduced to supporting WInston’s bullshit, as I observed them doing between 2005-2008?

              A fate so low and cringing on the power scale that it makes School Board membership look good. 🙂

            • Duker

               /  December 20, 2018

              Remember Keys and Joyce’s bullshit, add in McCully and that total fake farmer English.

  5. Gezza

     /  December 20, 2018

    That doesn’t look like “immigration has fallen quite dramatically under this Government”.

    I think you might be forgetting Winston’s cunning use of the English language; he makes everything he talks about dramatic.

    • Duker

       /  December 20, 2018

      Peters was helped by the previous government realizing the huge rise in migration over the previous years would affect them come election time wound back the numbers from about 2016

      • Gezza

         /  December 20, 2018

        Yep. My impression is the coalition claims credit for reductions already happening as a result of National’s tweaks. And this reduction could well be temporary, because already there seem to be the usual rising volumes of claims from employers that they just can’t get Kiwis with the right quals & experience or willingness to do jobs.

        The history of our immigration policy seems to open it up, anti-migrant sentiment rises, wind it back, employers start howling, open it up, rinse & repeat. Doesn’t matter which government is in power; they all do it.

        • Duker

           /  December 20, 2018

          well there is a whole ‘industry’ now involved in recruiting workers from overseas. farmers get cold called by agents who say they have workers waiting overseas, shopkeepers and other small businesses are the same.
          then there are the people already in nz who need a permanent job to qualify for residency, they have agents scouring small businesses and offering inducements to take people onto the books.

          its not quite true to say ‘cant get workers’ , when they are being promised people even before they have a vacancy.
          these noises about cant fill vacancies come mostly from these recruiters and their collaborators

  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  December 20, 2018

    Wrecking the economy is the best way to reduce immigration. The CoL is still working on that.

    • Duker

       /  December 20, 2018

      Hehe .. they are doing OK inspite of the $80 bill of debt left by Key and English. The overseas debt agencies would slash the ratings if it wasn’t for Cullen’s nest egg, now worth $40 bill.
      What nest egg did English leave, other than borrowing another $25 bill in the last 4 years

  7. kluelis

     /  December 20, 2018

    @Gezza / December 20, 2018
    Are you a bloody foreigner ? o_O
    No. Geezer are you a foreigner?

    1 1 Rate This

    • Gezza

       /  December 20, 2018

      No. And I’m from Taranaki, where they’ve got a few clues, so I’m not bloody clueless. 👍🏼