Political predictions for 2019

I don’t try to predict what will happen in politics. But Stuff and David Farrar publish their guesses for each year.

Stuff: 2019 predictions start with some sort of show, so it seems a bit flippant. Some of their other predictions:

  • Healthy food is here to stay
    (so is unhealthy food)
  • Backing the beard
    (is most notable for it’s html mistake).
  • Watching TV – real TV – will become cool again
  • #Metoo hits the hospitality industry
  • Expensive coffee will get more expensive
  • Stuff political reporter Henry Cooke predicts National leader Simon Bridges may not be in as much of a happy place by the time 2020 rolls around, but the National Party will not dip very far below 40 per cent in the polls.
  • Northland’s Whangarei will be the next underrated, affordable destination (“We all know someone who moved to Dunedin this year” – no we all don’t know).
  • Stuff predicts Jones’ eternal war with Air New Zealand will continue apace …but “he will continue to fly with them, constantly”.
    (I predict more than one Minister will be an attention seeking hypocrite)
  •  The future of our consumerism will change with the advent of getting pretty much anything you want delivered to your door.
    (except for better journalism)
  • This will be the year Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and partner Clarke Gayford tie the knot
    (good for them if they do but something i will avoid as much as possible)

That’s the less trite ones.

David Farrar’s Predictions for 2019 include some standard point scoring guesses, but these are more interesting:

2. ACT will change its name to the “Freedom” party.

5. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum

10. The Government’s projected surplus in the 2019 Budget will be less than the surplus for 2017/18

11. The Government will fail to get the numbers in the House for a comprehensive Capital Gains Tax
(Labour have already virtually ruled out a comprehensive CGT)

13. Brexit will not occur on 29 March 2019

15. Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party

16. Donald Trump will not get $5 billion for his wall so will back down on the Government shut down

19. Kris Faafoi will be promoted to Cabinet
(he should be, he is one of the Government’s most competent/promising performers).

 

 

42 Comments

  1. Missy

     /  December 30, 2018

    I would disagree with him on No. 13, I think Brexit will happen, and after some reports today, I think the UK will leave without an agreement. A senior civil servant has slammed the Government saying they are partaking in Project Fear III by implying they aren’t ready for a No Deal Brexit when the reality is the UK is more prepared than the PM is letting on.

    There will be troubled times ahead, but I don’t think the UK Government can risk not delivering Brexit, the question is what type of Brexit.

    The EU are being incredibly stubborn on it and refusing to compromise any more, however, the reality after the vote in the week of 14 January may be that the EU do in fact offer a further compromise to avoid a no deal Brexit, but assuming they won’t the UK will still leave.

    • Pink David

       /  December 30, 2018

      Brexit was always going to be a no deal one, the fact May has mismanaged this so spectacularly hasn’t changed that. The EU were never negotiating in good faith.

    • Duker

       /  December 30, 2018

      The Brexit one is a bit of a two way bet, as saying ‘will not occur on’ covers both ,” its cancelled” and “its given a delay and occurs later” – which is the most likely as the transition time is extended.
      Farrar is smart arsed like that in the way he plays with words

      • Missy

         /  December 30, 2018

        the Transition is part of the withdrawal agreement with the EU, so

        1. The UK is not considered to be in the EU during the transition. The transition will only happen if the UK Government vote for the agreement. No agreement no transition period.

        2. The only way he is correct on Brexit is if a) Article 50 is revoked by the UK, or b) the EU agrees to an extension of time on article 50.

        The first is political suicide and the second will only happen if the UK call a second referendum.

        • Duker

           /  December 30, 2018

          Second referendum ?
          had a second vote with the snap election- which had both main parties ‘committed’ to Brexit and increased their vote. ( total vote best way to compare as FPP is so variable)

          Those stridently against Brexit didnt do so well, SNP spectacularly so. While Libs should have picked up votes from their 2015 drubbing but didnt.

          • Missy

             /  December 30, 2018

            Those calling for it are saying it is a People’s Vote on the deal, but still want Remain on the ballot, so yes there is a campaign for a second referendum.

            It is a very vocal minority that want a second referendum.

        • Duker

           /  December 30, 2018

          “The transition agreement enables the UK to leave the EU but remain within the single market and customs union for 21 months after Brexit. In practical terms this means that the rights of businesses and citizens remain largely untouched between Brexit day and the end of 2020.” Financial Times
          That sort of fits Brexit not occuring

          • Missy

             /  December 30, 2018

            True, but it mostly relates to the Customs Union and Single Market, the UK will have left most other EU institutions, and the ECJ will only be able to rule on matters relating to the withdrawal agreement.

            It is more of a halfway house.

            The real issue is not the transition agreement but the backstop if there is no trade agreement by the end of 2020, then the UK will be stuck in a halfway house of the EU for an indeterminate time.

            Most are happy enough with a limited period transition arrangement, it is that there is no end date to the backstop if that should be enacted.

  2. Blazer

     /  December 30, 2018

    National will continue..’barking at every passing car’…
    Mr Bridges will rise in the prefferred P.M stakes to double digits.

    • That’s like predicting that Jacinda Ardern will continue to play ‘personality’ politics.

      And that the media will enable them.

      • Blazer

         /  December 30, 2018

        What else is there except for ‘personality’ politics?

        Why do you think Bennett and others whiz around in cars with their visage wrapped around them?

        Why do new M.P’s always have a ‘back story’ to endear themselves to voters?

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  December 30, 2018

          The car thing’s been going on for many years.

          • Gezza

             /  December 30, 2018

            True, but they don’t all have their mugs plastered on their cars, so I think Blazer’s point is valid.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  December 30, 2018

              It’s a good way of publicising the party, which is why it’s done, I think.

              They can’t win with Blazer; if they drive an ordinary car, that’s wrong, if they use a limousine, that’s wrong too.

  3. kluelis

     /  December 30, 2018

    All political parties will be abolished. Government will become an online agency. There will be no more elections as employees will be selected by submitting CV’s and a subsequent interviewing process. Members will become managers.There will be no Prime Minister instead there will be a panel of senior management consultants. New Zealand will be renamed Tatou. There will be no National Flag. No Anthem. All public holidays will be scrapped with workers given two extra weeks holiday instead. Self sufficiency, environmental sustainability with a community outlook will be key. More to follow.

    • “All public holidays will be scrapped with workers given two extra weeks holiday instead.”

      Employees get two weeks worth of public holidays, on designated days.

      There could be some merit in allowing us to choose when we take them, as an option at least, but I’m not sure unions would be happy with it.

  4. NOEL

     /  December 30, 2018

    “The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum.”
    Aw gee they give people the opportunity to present their reasons so Parliament can make and informed decision. And then cop out to a referendum?
    Geez

  5. Gezza

     /  December 30, 2018

    15. Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party

    Possibly. I would have been more positive about that earlier in the year. But I think Kelvin’s actually been something of a quiet achiever in his portfolios. He was obviously appointed deputy leader in the hope of securing and keeping te Maori vote – & from what I can see he connects very well with Maori and has gained and keeps their respect. That makes leaving him in place with Grant whispering in his ear when necessary an acceptable option for the Party.

    The co-leader of the coalition, Winston Peters, has the more vital & relevant job, Deputy PM, and he is very capable of stepping in for the PM and handling it well, as he has shown.

    • Duker

       /  December 30, 2018

      Yes , deputy leader of a party is a non job in the NZ context , as its not like US where there is automatic right of sucession for Vice President. Do we even know who deputy leader of national is , or care.
      Notice Farrar doesnt give a bet on ‘how long leader of national will last’

      • Gezza

         /  December 30, 2018

        I’m picking Simon will step down within the first 6 months of 2019 for the good of the party. I’m so sure of this I have a $2 bag of jet planes riding on it with a local dairy owner. (The one who doesn’t prominently display The Australian Woman’s Weekly cover with Jacinda on it.)

        • Pink David

           /  December 30, 2018

          “I’m picking Simon will step down within the first 6 months of 2019 for the good of the party.”

          I doubt that very much. He will carry on as the caretaker until the timing is right ahead of the election.

          • Gezza

             /  December 30, 2018

            Shit. Hope you’re wrong. I want those jet planes.

          • Duker

             /  December 30, 2018

            Bridges wont step voluntarily, hes got an ambitious wife, who will say – look how long Helen Clark stayed as leader of opposition with low ratings.

            • Gezza

               /  December 30, 2018

              Yes but her voice was lot lower than his. These things matter when you’re trying to win over blokes and he’s got no show winning over sheilas with Jacinda being so nice & him always complaining about everything. That’s what did Andy in.

  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  December 30, 2018

    I’m with Newt Gingrich who predicts 2019 will be unpredictable.

  7. Corky

     /  December 30, 2018

    Prediction:

    Government MP to be associated, either rightly or wrongly, with a paua poaching operation.

    • Gezza

       /  December 30, 2018

      Which one? Paula?

      • Gezza

         /  December 30, 2018

        Oh – hang on. She’s not in government. Sorry.
        Andy Little?

        • Corky

           /  December 30, 2018

          Andy wouldn’t know a paua from a beard trimmer.

          • Gezza

             /  December 30, 2018

            He’s going to lots of hui. Ngaphui rebels might entrap him to get some Treaty Negotiations leverage?

    • Duker

       /  December 30, 2018

      “Government MP to be associated, either rightly or wrongly, with a paua poaching operation”

      You mean a bit like something that did happen in 2017
      “”Government MP to be associated, either rightly or wrongly, with a farm animal cruelty investigation”
      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/102836792/national-mps-husband-and-son-in-court-on-animal-cruelty-charges

      • Corky

         /  December 30, 2018

        Yes, something like that, Dook. Although being a Lefty government MP, my guess is it may be a little more ‘hands-on.”

        • Duker

           /  December 30, 2018

          Does ‘ hands on’ cover Bill English attempt to get the government to pay him to live in his own house ?
          Yet the whole fakery of him pretending to live in Dipton all those years, while his wifes job was in Wellington , his kids all went to school in wellington. A phony who doubled dipped.

          • Kitty Catkin

             /  December 30, 2018

            That is a gross distortion of the truth. He accepted the advice from the appropriate department. and paid the money back at once when this was found to be incorrect. It was not going on for years, and you are either ignorant or lying.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  December 30, 2018

              He was overpaid $32,000. If that had covered ‘years’, it would have been a very mean housing allowance in the first place.

              If he had committed the fraud that you imply, he would have been prosecuted.

              You have been corrected on this falsehood so many times that it’s a wonder that you keep repeating it like a parrot when you must know by now that it’s untrue.

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  December 30, 2018

            Rubbish. He wasn’t claiming to live in Dipton, he was claiming Dipton was his family home as it was and is. The Parliamentary rules are there to enable MPs to keep their homes around New Zealand while living in Wellington as their Parliamentary work requires – and for a Minister that is full time which is why the allowance is greater.

            English was picked on for political purposes because he was a long-serving Minister with a large family.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  December 30, 2018

              Well, if the spiteful Duker is right and everyone else is wrong, and BIll English was double dipping for ‘ years’, it can’t be a very generous allowance. Let’s say that the $32,000 covered 5 years…that’s about $100 a week.Duker might think that that is worth committing fraud for, I doubt if someone like Bill English would, even if he was that dishonest, which I don’t believe he is.

              In fact, it was a very short time and contrary to what Duker pigheadedly repeats like a mantra, it was paid back at once.

          • Gerrit

             /  December 30, 2018

            Duker is telling half truths. This issue was put to bed ions (like 10 years) ago.

            it all started with the Green party who’s superannuation scheme bought houses in Wellington for their out of town MP’s to rent.

            “These allow an out-of-Wellington MP to qualify for an allowance, even if they own or have an interest in the property. They can claim for rent or interest costs (but not principal) on a mortgage to a maximum of $24,000 a year.”

            http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2930184/Greens-pay-back-double-dip-rent-error

            Yet the left keep bringing up the English situation without reference to the loophole actually started by the Greens and their leader Rod Donald.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  December 30, 2018

              Half truths ??? Untruths. He said that Bill English was double dipping for years, which would be at best dishonest, at worst fraud