Can National rebuild itself for the future?

The National Party seems complacent due to sustaining quite remarkable support in polls – probably more to do with their opponents not earning more support yet. More of the same old (party), with a new but more conservative leader failing to inspire, is not a good formula for future success.

E.A. Blair – KiwiFirewalker:

National can not get itself out of the political doldrums that they now listlessly drift in as leader or no the party is only marginally representative of the political landscape in NZ (and only the most idiotic believe that a new leader will change that around).

Simon Bridges cops most flak as leader but he is not the core problem, the National Party is what needs to change, significantly.

They could do with a major rethink and rebuild into a party of a future government, but they look little different to how they were when they failed to retain power in 2017 except having a less popular leader.

As leader Bridges should lead a revitalisation, but so far there is no sign of anything like that happening – if anything he is pulling National back to a more conservative party further out of touch with modern New Zealand.

Bridges may come back next year with exuberance and a grand plan for a modernised party of the future, but that would seem out of character for both Bridges and National.

 

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40 Comments

  1. Blazer

     /  31st December 2018

    National have a sound foundation.

    The absolutely unearned reputation as ‘sound economic managers’ and a ‘safe pair of hands’…stands them in good stead ,when the economic cyclical headwinds change.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  31st December 2018

      They know they just have to wait for reality to knock the shine off the Left and the media to get bored and start knocking the Govt.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  31st December 2018

        To be fair, 3 News does criticise the Coal and PM reasonably often.

        National will be back. Even the longest, darkest night comes to an end someti,e.

        Reply
  2. Chuck Bird

     /  31st December 2018

    I disagree that conservativism is out of touch with modern NZ. We will see with the cannabis referendum. Alcohol is a lot easier to check at a road stop than cannabis.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st December 2018

      No its not . Saliva test will check for cannabis and P.
      eg the ones they use in Australia
      “Roadside saliva tests detect drugs that contain:

      THC (Delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol), the active component in cannabis
      Methamphetamine, which is found in drugs such as ’speed’, ’base’, ‘ice’, and ‘crystal meth’
      MDMA, which is known as ecstasy
      https://adf.org.au/insights/roadside-drug-testing/

      Conservatives arent the only ones opposed to cannabis reform beyond the mostly laissez faire approach the police have now.
      We had a fake online poll a few weeks back promoted by the cannabis industry but I dont think a real poll will be so generous.

      Reply
      • Griff.

         /  31st December 2018

        A new survey conducted by the NZ Drug Foundation shows two thirds of New Zealand voters support changing the country’s outdated cannabis law, with outright legalisation being the most popular option.

        Two thirds of those answering the telephone survey want cannabis to be either legalised (35 percent) or decriminalised (32 percent). Only a third want to keep the status quo. Support for legalisation has grown 7 percent since the same question was asked in July 2017. Surveys were previously conducted in July 2017 and July 2016.

        People were strongly in favour of medicinal cannabis being readily available for both pain management and terminal illnesses. Only 10 percent want this to stay illegal. For the first time people were asked how they would vote in the planned referendum on legalising cannabis.

        “These results show that New Zealanders are ready for a future under which cannabis is regulated. People realise that the way we’re currently dealing with cannabis isn’t working,” said Ross Bell, Executive Director.

        “Support for both legalisation and decriminalisation has continued to grow. This is good news for those that support treating drug use as a health issue, not a criminal one. This is a sign that people are ready to vote for change in the cannabis referendum due to happen on or before the 2020 election.”

        https://www.drugfoundation.org.nz/news-media-and-events/new-survey-results-show-legal-cannabis-a-real-possibility/

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  31st December 2018

          Thats the bogus poll I was talking about. Its an online method which asks people to participate. It does pretend to adjust the numbers answering by age group.
          It is in no way a ‘ random sample’ of the entire country, which can be said to represent all voters.

          Reply
          • Griff.

             /  31st December 2018

            Read it again son
            The link is to a phone poll by a reputable polling organization not a self selecting online poll.

            The Poll was conducted by Curia Market Research from Monday 2 July to Tuesday 17 July 2018. The sample was drawn from a random selection of 15,000 eligible NZ voters contactable on a landline. 943 people agreed to participate. The results were weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age and area. The maximum sampling error (for a results of 50%) is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level.

            Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  31st December 2018

        Saliva tests don’t measure impairment so can become just another tool for victimisation.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  31st December 2018

          Nor do the alcohol breath testers measure impairment, you are either over the legal level or you are not.
          Victims are those who lives are changed by others carelessness or inattention causes an accident. If you are tested and its positive thats a wake up call, not becoming a victim.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  31st December 2018

            There’s a big difference in correlation between impairment and alcohol levels or drug residues. The likelihood of injustice is similarly divergent.

            Reply
          • Griff.

             /  31st December 2018

            At the 8mg/l legal limit for blood alcohol you are 8x more likely to have an accident
            Being stoned the result is 1.25x more likely margin of error level of risk.

            Wanna pull over a stoned driver? look for some one driving slowly and carefully in the left lane.
            Research repeatedly shows that being stoned you are both aware of and overcompensate for your intoxication .

            Alcohol has the opposite effect you are not aware of your intoxication and are inclined to push limits.

            The entire driving while high on pot argument is based on baseless fear mongering not supported by research .

            CANNABIS USE AND DRIVING
            Evidence Review
            Canadian Drug Policy Coalition
            Summary and Conclusions

            From the best data available, it appears that there is an approximately 20%-30% increased risk for cannabis-related motor vehicle collision (OR = 1.22)
            A confounding factor in many studies is the use of alcohol in combination with cannabis. Based on the available evidence, the MVA OR for DACU from studies that control for alcohol use is roughly 1.18, and those controlling for demographic factors and alcohol found no increased risk in overall crash risk (OR=1). These are low but meaningful increased risk
            estimates, comparable to the MVA risk associated with blood alcohol concentrations below the accepted level of .5 g/L.
            An increase of cannabis use involved in fatal car crashes has been seen in Washington State
            after the implementation of legalization regulations, however the presence of cannabis cannot be said to indicate impairment, nor be the main contributor to the crash risks. Overall, the rates of fatal crashes have
            declined in states with medical cannabis laws. There are significant legal risks for individuals deemed to be driving while impaired by cannabis: suspension of driving privilege, fines and even imprisonment. The legal risk situation is complicated by widespread reliance upon impairment tests of dubious validity

            Reply
          • Griff.

             /  31st December 2018

            Alcohol is rapidly expressed by the body.
            Having a positive test for alcohol is correlated strongly with measurable intoxication. A bad hangover you can still be measurable impaired from prior alcohol use and not test positive for the drug,
            With cannabis the tests are for metabolites that can be present over a month after any intoxication can be measured.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  31st December 2018

              Yep. It’s basically dishonest to use a cannabis saliva test as an indicator of impairment.

            • Griff.

               /  31st December 2018

              Most of the arguments used against cannabis are based on myths.
              When compered to the legal drug alcohol the risk is minor.

              Of friends from my youth four are dead from alcohol use.
              Two in car accidents, one in a drunken brawl and the forth drowned.
              Not one is dead from cannabis use .
              I have both my self been a high user of cannabis in the past and know others the same.
              No one I know has ever had an issue reducing or totally stopping using cannabis at any time.
              I know of many who are addicted to alcohol and have extreme issues trying to stop even after its use destroying their health, their family’s and their employment.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  31st December 2018

              I remember the news testing the alcohol thing by giving various people the same amount of alcohol to drink. Some were not impaired at all, and others were on the same amount, but testing for impairment rather than the old either you’re over the limit would be so complex that it would be basically undoable.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  31st December 2018

              @Kitty, on top of that some people act like idiots when affected by alcohol and others take precautionary actions. So even the same physical impairment can result in widely varying levels of risk.

  3. Corky

     /  31st December 2018

    Really National lost nothing at the last election. They were at the whim of Winston. A new leader and being a little more generous to those in the public sector would go a long way. But fundamentally National lost its way years ago. They are incapable of major changes like those implemented by the Lange government. Conservatism in governance being the last vestige of old National.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st December 2018

      You are dreaming .
      You are part of that maybe 3% of the voters that have that view, with a similar % on the far left.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  31st December 2018

        ”You are part of that maybe 3% of the voters that have that view, with a similar % on the far left.”

        News to me. I thought only I had that view?

        One things for sure…if you want to get on Blazers list you will need to buck your ideas up.

        Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st December 2018

      Whim of Winston ?

      The time to get Winston on side was in the last 6 years of their government, but Key and national preferred to kick him at every oppotunity.
      Winston was only once supported national in government, and they broke their coalition be rid of him.
      Since then Peters has only worked with labour , and you still think there was a chance of the stars aligning. Dreamer

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  31st December 2018

        ”The time to get Winston on side was in the last 6 years of their government, but Key and national preferred to kick him at every opportunity.”

        And if National had Winston on side what would have changed? Nothing. They still would have been beholden to the whims of Winston, unless of course, a new coalition partner could have been found.

        Reply
        • kluelis

           /  31st December 2018

          I like the MMP system which means a 3rd party who can determine the new Government must first offer their support to the party with the most votes

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  31st December 2018

            Where do they do that?
            In germany, both large parties would have nothing to do with AfD, the 3rd largest party.
            I reckon national should just publish their offer to NZF ?

            Reply
  4. Duker

     /  31st December 2018

    Same old tired formula that national hasnt ‘lost much in the polls’
    Thats because there is NO OTHER CHOICE on the right.

    We can look back in 2010 election polling ( after the 2008) election
    Greens polling was around 8% and Labour was at around 32% NZ First at 4% Added together its makes 44%
    Its no big deal for there to be 40% plus core support for parties on left or right
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_New_Zealand_general_election

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  31st December 2018

      ”Same old tired formula that national hasn’t ‘lost much in the polls’
      That’s because there is NO OTHER CHOICE on the right.”

      Nothing new there, apart from a few factors you have left out regarding National support.
      Someone may take the time to fill you in.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  31st December 2018

        What other factors are those. Back in 2010, a new year after the election, around 45% supported the government and 45% the opposition ( +- 5%)

        Its historical . When national was in opposition ACT could look at 6-8% , but they imploded over Hydes leadership and poor choice of Mps since. Their voters have drifted back to national to keep the right at its low to mid 40s numbers . ( who can guess the dont know number in that – The TV network who publicise polls pretend the dont knows dont exist)

        Reply
  5. PDB

     /  31st December 2018

    Unless another centralist party comes into being that is open to working with National (and can make the 5% threshold) then National will remain dependent on the Greens and/or NZL First not making the threshold in order to get back into power – not a particularly winning strategy.

    The other problem they have of course is that the coalition have so far done little to change the direction of the economy that National were running hence there is no great mood for change at the moment, regardless of the many stuff-ups made by the govt during their first year in power.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st December 2018

      Whats this nonsense called ‘change the direction of the economy’? The Reserve Bank indepedently sets interest rates , its absurd to think any government can change this ‘liitle lap dog’ you call the economy.
      I remember a decade ago when when practically any borrowing by the government, especially labour was ‘bad’ as it raised interest rates. That shibboleth has been destroyed over the 8 years or so, with English racking up $80 bill or so of borrowing – no surplus is an accounting term , on a cash basis NZ has been borrowing for a long time.
      One small thing that did change , was the Cullen Fund where a $7-9 bill investment before 2009 has turned into $40 bill today . I hear the new government has been putting more money into that winner, while the old government bought 45% of Chorus for $940 mill.

      Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  31st December 2018

        “while the old government bought 45% of Chorus” …

        …and formed joint ventures with Chorus and others to fund a coordinated broadband rollout across the entire country. I’m not a fan of John Key but half a million families across the country who paid squat for a fibre connection have something to thank him for

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  31st December 2018

          Joint venture ? They provided low interest loans on favourable pay back terms which sees Chorus repay the money with revenue from broadband connections.
          Its like re nationalising Telecom , but we got stuck with the ‘old bits’ and broadly paid for them to replace the copper network. If I was in Dragons den I would have said , ‘ we paying for the lot , we own the lot – but Joyce was the ‘negotiator’

          Reply
  6. Zedd

     /  31st December 2018

    ‘Can National rebuild itself for the future?’ (banner by PG)

    “Hopefully the distant future..” sez i 😀

    hapi new year folks 🙂

    btw; there are alternatives to BOOZE.. stay safe

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  31st December 2018

      There is a cheap/free alternative to hangover cures…don’t have one in the first place.

      I can’t believe that some people spend a fortune acquiring a hangover and then spend another getting rid of it.

      Reply
    • Corky

       /  31st December 2018

      No need for the Green,Zedd. Who wants respiratory problems? No, all you need is activated charcoal tablets and you can get pissed with no hangover the next day.

      Reply
  7. kluelis

     /  31st December 2018

    Elections allow voters to put two marks on a piece of paper no one reads and just as well know one knows their views. Fortunately 99% of governance takes place in select committee instead. Media sell to the financial right wing who need to be reassured that they really control the country. Overall NZ is in cruise mode and becoming a retirement village. The younger population have a posse of support networks to negotiate the myriad of life style options. Eds and Meds are the greatest employer. Eds to amuse the privileged easily bored youngsters and the meds to cater for the vast boomer retirees.
    Social discourse takes place through on line sites each assuring their demographic that ” we are right and they are wrong”. Is there a need for National elections? Probably not especially when Labour and National became the same in 1984. Politics is essentially over. Infotainment online politics is all that’s left.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st December 2018

      So you think we should be like the French and go for a completely new movement with someone like Macron – En Marche!

      Reply
      • kluelis

         /  31st December 2018

        Something realistic. The under 40’s don’t bother with silly elections they have better things to do. Its only us oldies who take an interest in politics now and only because like going to church as kids we were made to.

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  31st December 2018

          Kluelis, this is totally irrelevant, but when you were at school did you know Mark Burton, Trevor Smith, Earl White, Chris Cherry and have Iggy Lawson as a teacher ?

          Reply
  1. Can National rebuild itself for the future? — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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