Stuff 2019 political predictions

Stuff has made their 2019 Political predictions: Big calls for the year ahead – some are on things that they can’t be predicting based on knowledge so are little more than lame guesses – like whether someone will have a baby or not. But some are presumably based on political intuition.

2. National MPs will lose their nerve partway through the year after the party’s poll ratings start to slide. And they will install Judith Collins as leader on a promise to destabilise Jacinda Ardern’s leadership.

National’s polls slid last year (thanks to Jami-lee Ross) but recovered quickly. What could cause them to dive and stay down? Labour doing much better perhaps, and actually making some bold changes that will benefit middle New Zealand other than parents with dependent kids.

This prediction looks to be a stab.

Would Judith Collins make any difference? She would be a bigger risk – she has some appeal and also a lack of wide support. Whether she would appeal broadly enough is hard to tell – actually, i think impossible to tell in advance. Any leadership change is a major punt.

3. The Euthanasia Bill will pass with NZ First’s support but its implementation will be subject to the country supporting it in a referendum.

As it should be. If NZ First don’t support it going to a referendum it would be a major betrayal of one of their core policies – to let people decide on social issues via referendum.

4. Ardern will have a cabinet reshuffle and promotions will include emerging star Kris Faafoi, plus the surprise return of veteran MP Ruth Dyson to address the lack of senior women cabinet ministers. Rookie MP Deborah Russell will make the biggest jump from the back bench.

I don’t know about Dyson, but Faafoi deserves a promotion, and Russell is a good prospect, but it may be a bit soon for her.

I think that Clare Curran returning to Cabinet is too big a risk, she looked out of her depth. Meka Whatiri is female and Maori so could be given another chance.

5. NZ First’s Shane Jones will spend increasing amounts of time (and money) in Northland, in preparation to be lined up to contest the Northland seat with the understanding that if he wins he will be the successor to Winston Peters.

That looks to be how things are intended to happen.

Would Jones retain support for NZ First if Peters retires? Provincial voters will like all the hand outs, but they may not be so keen on am over-eloquent self promoter.  But we won’t find this out until 2020.

6. The bullying inquiry led by Debbie Francis will find a widespread culture of bullying in Parliament and the Beehive, heralding a long overdue beef up of protections for ministerial and parliamentary staff.

There does seem to be resolve in Parliament to address bullying behaviour.

9. The fallout from the Karel Sroubek deportation scandal will continue into the new year.

Does the media know more than  has been made public so far?

11. National will trigger the waka jumping bill to remove Jami-Lee Ross from Parliament after he becomes a thorn in their side following his return to Parliament.

I think it’s hard to know how Jami-lee Ross will conduct himself if he returns to Parliament. His support looks certain to remain negligible.

12. The Government is going to park their promise of abortion reform for fear of alienating its conservative South Auckland Pasifika vote.

That would be a real shame. Gutlessness or political self-preservation? Maybe both, if that’s what happens.

13. A majority of the tax working group will recommend some kind of extension of a capital gains tax, with a series of exemptions and carve outs. But the campaign against the tax will grow until Labour abandons meaningful tax reform.

It could be argued that Labour’s limits on CGT and other tax changes has already ensured that meaningful tax reform is unlikely.

15. Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson will adopt a soapbox cause that will have co-leader James Shaw scrambling to carry out damage control.

That’s what she has done in 2018, and seems unrepentant, so it’s aa good bet she will repeat – and this is likely to further damage Green Party support.

16. Despite success in their flagship Zero Carbon Bill, the Greens will round out the year in the exact same position at around six per cent popularity.

That may depend on 15. And predicting an exact poll percent seems to be a silly prediction.

17. Attempts to find friends for National will see two new parties emerge as contenders – a Vernon Tava-led environment party and a party targeting the Christian and Pasifika vote to leverage off the Christian vote mobilised by the euthanasia, cannabis and abortion reform debates.

If either or both get off the ground they are unlikely to come close to the threshold in the 2020 election – but that may not be the aim. Instead, they goal may be to split the Green vote, threatening them missing the cut, and also to take a bit of support of Labour.

If so the end goal would be a virtual single party National government. I wouldn’t be keen on that.

19. Peters will lose the legal battle over the leak of his superannuation details, claim victory, and the Government will have to pick up the tab for National MPs’ expenses.

Which way the legal battle may go is difficult to predict. Peters claiming victory is an easy pick, as is MPs expenses being paid for.

20. Teachers will call off their strikes in February but the Government will continue to be plagued by industrial action.

How that pans out will be interesting.

 

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55 Comments

  1. kluelis

     /  1st January 2019

    Labour will relaunch as the “Heart” party. ❤

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  1st January 2019

      They probably should rebrand. I’m not sure “Labour” is really who they represent now.

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  1st January 2019

        “They probably should rebrand. I’m not sure “Labour” is really who they represent now.”

        Agree, but I don’t believe the proposed “Sumg, Urban Elite and Assorted Hangers-on Party” did very well in focus groups.

        Reply
          • Pink David

             /  1st January 2019

            Interesting, thanks for that.

            “over-educated and under-employed” “Those people are time-serving because they’ve gone from university politics into general party politics.”

            I really do wonder if the Universities are functioning the way we need. For all the talk of diversity, having everyone come through identical educations is something that is ignored. The French make this mistake, with their elite schools (Grandes écoles) that parachute people straight into running the join, never having rubbed shoulders with the plebs.

            Reply
    • Pink David

       /  1st January 2019

      Is that going to be like one of those signs at concentration camps; ‘Work will set you free’, a cruel joke played on the inmates?

      Reply
      • kluelis

         /  1st January 2019

        Arbeit macht frei. Pink folk are known to be obsessed with Nazi proper gander and Nazi uniforms. Showing your allegiance to your mentor Heinrich Himmler comes as no surprise as you are clearly fanatical to the core and certainly the most fascist poster on this site by far. As for your colleague Herr Dot Com well he is a huge fat tub of lard. Ballooned huge on the fat of criminal dealings like one of your other mentors the similarly tub of fat Lard Hermann Göring. Auf Wiedersehen.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  1st January 2019

          Dont you think its strange the Court of Appeal had to reverse previous precedent on extradition for racketeering to US to cover KDC situation.
          Extradition from NZ doesnt cover copyright infringement , a civil claim -which the national party was convicted on- so you are incorrect about ‘criminal dealings’

          Anyway after KDCs fisrt mega site was shut down, he just started another muti million dollar business using the same tech as ‘personal cloud storage’ with no copyright material

          Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  1st January 2019

        I think that Labour and National should keep their names; I’d see little point in changing them.

        Nothing in NZ is or is likely to be anything like Auschwitz and the Arbeit Macht Frei, it’s a specious comparison, as we all know what happened there.

        Reply
  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  1st January 2019

    A CGT would be a meaningless tax reform.

    Reply
    • Pink David

       /  1st January 2019

      It will have a lot of meaning. That’s almost the only reason they would even consider it, as it’s actual impact will certainly be completely in contradiction to the claims made for it.

      Given that, it’s very likely to be made policy. Then the fun will start.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  1st January 2019

        You are just repeating cant from the Property owners Federation or somesuch.
        How many houses do you have, just so we can be sure you talking self interest here.

        Reply
        • Pink David

           /  1st January 2019

          “You are just repeating cant from the Property owners Federation or somesuch.”

          That would be lazy, and mostly their arguments are not that great.

          “How many houses do you have, just so we can be sure you talking self interest here.”

          I already pay capital gains tax (technically, it’s a capital tax) in NZ, most of my investments are in international shares, and it’s a really nasty tax to pay. So I’m being taxed on money I have already been taxed on. On houses, I own three, somewhat by accident. I can guarantee you any capital gains tax Labour bring in will result in me never paying any capital gains tax on that property.

          On the ‘self interest’, its in my interest to tell my girlfriend that I love and care for her, that does not mean it’s not also true.

          Show us your skin in the game. Or are you in favour of a tax that does not impact you? Perhaps I can promote a tax on you, and if you complain, I can disregard your opinion because you are the one being taxed?

          Reply
  3. Gerrit

     /  1st January 2019

    “Meka Whatiri is female and Maori so could be given another chance.”

    A male Chinese, Indian, Pakeha, Pacific Islander, etc. would not be offered another chance?

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  1st January 2019

      JLR was offerred another…chance.

      Reply
      • Gerrit

         /  1st January 2019

        Another chance…because the female Maori moniker?

        Reply
      • Gezza

         /  1st January 2019

        JLR’s certainly a chancer.

        chancer
        noun INFORMAL•BRITISH
        a person who exploits any opportunity to further their own ends.
        “Prague was full of young chancers, bored with the City”

        Reply
    • Duker

       /  1st January 2019

      “would not be offered another chance?”

      a pale male , Nick Smith has had so many ‘second chances” , but his ticket had ‘friend of bill, catholic school old boy ‘ stamped on it.

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  1st January 2019

        Nick Smith assaulted one of his staff? When was that?

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  1st January 2019

          I don’t know when, but I know where – in Duker’s mind, where the ‘so many second chances are’.

          Reply
        • Duker

           /  1st January 2019

          Second chances arent about the circumstances.
          It wasnt an assault as it is generally known.
          Smith has been convicted of contempt of court – a far more serious charge, and then there was the blatant misuse of his ministerial postion
          “sending a letter on ACC ministerial letterhead to help a female friend with an ACC claim”
          and an earlier situation with the same female friend
          ”’ACC prepared a formal response to that letter, I signed out that letter back to that constituent without acknowledging that I too had a conflict of interest.”

          However :”He would not comment on the nature of his relationship with Pullar.”

          Reply
          • Pink David

             /  1st January 2019

            If it wasn’t assault, how on earth did this happen?

            “The incident involving former Government minister Meka Whaitiri and a staff member allegedly left bruising to the upper right arm of the staffer and photos of bruises were produced to the inquiry, a draft report leaked to the Herald shows.”

            Bruising from ‘being spoken too loudly’ is it?

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  1st January 2019

              ‘those bruises’- only photographed a week or so later
              “Three days later Ms Ardern suspended Ms Whaitiri as a minister. That same day photographs of the bruising were snapped, the report says. She told Mr Patten she hadn’t thought to check whether there was bruising until then.”

              So , didnt notice till some time later when bruises ‘appeared’- thats some assault.
              anyway , Whaitiri lost her job over the occasion. still leaves her with a few more to go to match Smiths ‘9 lives’

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  1st January 2019

              @Duker, huh? Bruises always take a day or two to colour up.

      • DaveK

         /  2nd January 2019

        Nick Smith went to Rangiora High School…so no snapper school connection

        Reply
  4. kluelis

     /  1st January 2019

    Kim Dot Com will launch his new political party aimed at bringing more rich fat European criminals to NZ where they can stay for a minimum of 10 years live in luxury have 19 kids receive protection from the right wing Gov’t and indeed have a private audience with said right wing PM.

    Reply
    • Pink David

       /  1st January 2019

      Your new perspective continues to refresh. You are now adding a bit of fat shaming to your inventory of grouping people.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  1st January 2019

        Why is it shaming to describe someone as what they are ? KDC is a fat criminal from Europe, even if the rest is fantasy.

        Reply
        • Pink David

           /  1st January 2019

          Tisk Kitty. Progressives like kluelis here are very much against this kind of behavior.

          Reply
          • kluelis

             /  1st January 2019

            @Duker Not in the least as they say no rich person is on death row. Money talks. Com has spent “mega” millions on the worlds best lawyers to extract any minuscule legal technicality going back to the Pharaohs to delay his extradition.
            Legal technicalities helped OJ Simpson walk free but we know he did it, David Bain was found not guilty second time round but again we all know he is guilty.
            KDC is as guilty as the grass is green but expensive lawyers can “prove” night is day and up is down. Mean while an average Joe will be fined for doing 55km in town and the process is immediate. One rule for some one rule for others

            Reply
            • kluelis

               /  1st January 2019

              The bottom line is if KDC and his million dollar dreamer team of lawyers believed he was innocent he would have gone back to contest the issue years ago.

            • Duker

               /  1st January 2019

              what nonsesne are you talking . how can KDC ‘contest the issue’ , the US wont provide the brief of evidence nor can he contest it till he is tried in a US court.
              meanwhile the nz courts are performing somersaults in turning non extraditable copy right infringement allegations into racketeering.
              the last guy the US tried to extradite on racketeering charges, the NZ court turned the US down. Something to do with ‘truck drivers getting visas to work in US’, surely not something like rackeetering or Rico
              https://www.justia.com/criminal/docs/rico/

            • kluelis

               /  1st January 2019

              Duker. Your talking like a highly paid defense Lawyer. Its all mumbo jumbo.
              Get your head out of your back side man. Dot Con is a crim taking up the same space as a 100 legal and decent immigrants could have.

            • Pink David

               /  2nd January 2019

              kluelis , given your ability to pick the truth, I’m shocked that we have not dismantled the entire justice system and simply replaced it with you making all the judgments.

          • kluelis

             /  1st January 2019

            @Pink David. Kitty Put you in your place son. Lol

            Reply
            • kluelis

               /  2nd January 2019

              “Kluelis , “given your ability to pick the truth, I’m shocked that we have not dismantled the entire justice system and simply replaced it with you making all the judgments”. Well with Pete George being the Chief Justice, Allan Wilkinson being the Attorney-General, and you being the Solicitor-General I am but a lowly court Lawyer working my way up.

  5. Gezza

     /  1st January 2019

    Given the claims that this coalition is the closest we have had yet to achieving the original intention of MMP (one I generally agree with) this was an interesting observation that I noted in one of KiwiFirewalker’s magnum opus posts yesterday:

    Jacindamania sucked back Labour’s wayward voters from the Greens and dragged down the party vote of every other political party in that election (go check the numbers of you don’t believe me) while also raising the overall percentage of people who voted, after two decades of decline. It killed wholesale both the Maori and United Future parties and swept their MPs off the political chess board in such a dramatic and sudden fashion that NZ politics, for the first time since MMP began, had a major reduction in the number of political parties in parliament.

    I’ll be interested to see if this chap attracts a wider audience this year – although I’m noticing more and more that political Blogs are the preserve of we baby boomers. I don’t know where younger voters get their political info from. The millennials don’t seem remotely interested in politics, as a rule.

    Reply
  6. Peters will probably drop his claim. Those he is claiming against would request discovery on the MSD file. He would have to make certain that his and his partner’s story matched. The one who testifies second cannot be present when the other one testifies.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  1st January 2019

      It isnt really disputed by anybody that peters was incorrectly given the ‘single ‘ super rate. And no he didnt have to sign a letter every year as that ONLY goes to those getting accommodation supplement to their super.
      peters claim is only about whether ‘legally’ those Ministers and others had a right to know anybodys details of their super payments. No surprises policy is a legal fiction when it comes to private information and its will be so found by the courts

      Reply
      • Chuck Bird

         /  1st January 2019

        Duker, the question was how was he given the single rate? If he and his partner stated their true situation he would not have had to pay the money back.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  1st January 2019

          he said it was given incorrectly. Even if its their error you still have to pay it back.

          Reply
        • Chuck Bird

           /  1st January 2019

          Duker, Winston was living full time with his partner at her property in St Marys Bay. He may have spent a little time at his property up north. If he and his partner had told the full truth he would not have got a single benefit. If a couple live in two separate houses and spend a few days at each other house and the odd night on there own they qualify for the single benefit.

          As I say Winston was living in a de facto relationship and would go to rate payer’s meeting with his partner. If he and his partner told the full truth he would be happy to release his file.

          Are you going to vote for NZF if Winston is still the leader in 2020?

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  1st January 2019

            Peters says he went to the office to apply for super with his partner sitting next to him during the interview.

            And how the error was made?
            “Peters says he does not know how a mistake, impliedly on his original application form, came to be and that he and the Ministry of Social Development have agreed it is a mystery”

            MSD says its a mystery….. if you have any experience dealing with council or government bureaucracies, ‘mystery’ hardly begins to describe their processes and if you push too hard , your applications just become ‘lost’

            Reply
          • Chuck Bird

             /  2nd January 2019

            Are you going to vote for Peters?

            Reply
  7. PDB

     /  1st January 2019

    I’ve got some yournz.org predictions;

    *PG will be well tested in the banning dept as an old foe from the past comments here this year under another user name.
    *Robert will be back on here spinning like a top once the govt inevitably cocks up again (as soon as they are back from holidays).
    *Blazer will continue his slide into conservatism as more angry left-wingers join the discussions here and steal his thunder. However ‘John Key’ will still be blamed for something every week this year.
    *Gezza will continue to have the highest comment count here in 2019.
    *Alan will start to post less this year & arguments with Blazer will reduce as well as the two old foes begin to mellow and find more common ground.
    *Missy will still continue to collect downticks for no reason at all.
    *Griff will continue to post selective graphs and continue with his regular ‘licking’ post as he is the only one that thinks it clever & original.
    *New poster Duker will give Griff a run in the ‘no real argument but I can get angry & abusive’ dept this year.
    *HFD will continue to provide well rounded argument and debate.
    *Parti will continue to talk in riddles with large smatterings of ‘neo-liberal’, ‘white privilege’ & the ‘FIRE economy’.
    *Mother will disappear by the end of the year blaming people on here of being nasty human beings for not coughing up some money.
    *Corky will continue to be……..well, Corky.
    *Lurch will continue to be……well, Lurch.
    *Phantom snowflake will feature more on other topics other than ‘general chat’.
    *Patz & Dupz will both refuse right eye surgery this year that would allow them to have two working eyes.
    *Kitty will slowly give up correcting our posts as the standard of speling, gramma etc hair continues 2 slide.
    *More long-term posters will post less often as a large intake of new people join the blog.
    *All other regulars I’ve not had time to personally mention will keep on keeping on – none of them budging in their beliefs.

    Reply
    • Conspiratoor

       /  2nd January 2019

      …and Pants Down Brown will be welcomed back into the fold at the mighty Whale 😉

      Reply
  8. phantom snowflake

     /  1st January 2019

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  1st January 2019

      If you hadn’t nuked fucken Gomorrah maybe nobody would’ve even thought of building their bloody own. You should be bloody sacked. Bastard.

      Reply
      • phantom snowflake

         /  1st January 2019

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  1st January 2019

          Prick. Bring a new God. This one’s a lunatic.

          Reply
          • phantom snowflake

             /  1st January 2019

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  1st January 2019

              Every other life form on the planet knows where he’s coming from with that one but he fucked it up with the flood. Christ he’s a whinger. Bloody useless. Give me the bloody job & the powers. Trust me, I’ll be great at it.

  9. Zedd

     /  2nd January 2019

    my prediction; more ‘Lets do this’ 😀 😀

    ‘Go you good thing’

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  2nd January 2019

      If you mean making me God, onya Zedd. I’m already working on my acceptance speech and some new commandments.The broadcast will be videoed and televised world wide. Also there will be messages in the sky, in every language. I’m not going to screw it up like the last blimmin God communicating with humans by sending weird voices and dreams to ignorant bloody goat herders and some baby found in the papyrus brushes who ended up sponging off the Pharaohs. We can do without all the bloody confusion that caused, thank you ! >:D

      Reply
  10. PartisanZ

     /  2nd January 2019

    5. NZ First’s Shane Jones will spend increasing amounts of time (and money) in Northland, in preparation to be lined up to contest the Northland seat with the understanding that if he wins he will be the successor to Winston Peters.

    I think all of this scenario is quite likely …

    I find it strange … well, I find it utterly bizarre actually … that the little and relatively poor electorate of Northland has become such a highly desired, high-stakes, rabidly-contested prize … I mean like: WTF is this about?

    Labour-led via NZFirst are heaping unequal amounts of PGF funding on Northland … while National just went feral in 2014 extending RoNS to Wellsford, and then full “neoferaliberal”* in 2017 extending Four Lanes all the way to Whangarei … uncosted … for a region that contributes just 2.7% of NZ’s GDP …

    What is this really about? Post-Ngapuhi settlement PPP opportunities perhaps? Chinese tourism? … Chinese financed and ‘influenced’ development?

    Clutching at straws here but what other electorates get contested like this? With straight-out in-plain-sight election bribes …?

    * neoferaliberal – new word # 186 or 2019 new word # 1

    Reply

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