Brexit vote imminent, no win situation for May and UK

No matter what the outcome of the crucial Brexit vote in the UK Parliament this week the outcome may be bad.

There is the potential for financial catastrophe if the deal passes, and the complete decay of democracy if it fails. The country voted in favour of Brexit in a referendum and democracy-wise Parliament has a duty to act on that majority decision.

 

Missy:


Tomorrow is the ‘meaningful vote’ on the EU Withdrawal Agreement.

It is getting a little complex with machinations of some of the MPs trying desperately to stop Brexit. A group of MPs are reportedly going to use the Parliamentary Liaison Committee, (a committee of the chairs of all 32 select committees), to take power away from the Executive to manage Brexit. I am not sure if this is possible and haven’t had a chance to read up on the Standing Orders around this, but it is being described as a coup by some.

A Government whip has resigned in order to vote against the Government on the deal, and it is reported that at least 112 Government MPs have declared they will vote against the agreement.

Jeremy Corbyn has said that if the Government is defeated he will be calling a vote of No Confidence in the Government. Conservative MPs have been told if they vote against the Government in a Confidence vote they will have the whip withdrawn and be kicked out of the party. The DUP have previously stated that they will vote with the Government on a Confidence vote if it is called in the event of the withdrawal agreement being voted down. In theory the Government should win a vote of No Confidence in these circumstances.

If the agreement passes it has been suggested the DUP will call a vote of No Confidence in the Government in which they are likely to either vote against the Government or abstain. This will no doubt depend on Labour and how confident they are going into a General Election knowing that there is a deal they voted against already agreed. If they want to bring down the Government at any cost then the DUP will either hold their nose to vote with them, or most likely abstain, (since they have said they will never vote with Labour on matters of Confidence, and would abstain first). This also will depend on the Greens and Lib Dems, and what chance they think they have of stopping Brexit altogether.

In the event of a General Election Article 50 can be delayed until after the election.


In response to Facing loss on Brexit vote May warns of catastrophic failure:

Higher likelihood of catastrophe if the agreement is passed than not, higher likelihood of complete decay of democracy in the UK if the agreement is not passed.

It is a no win situation, May has botched this completely and put herself, and worse her Government, in a tenuous position.

Alan Wilkinson:

Surely it is impossible for her Brexit to pass? Everyone hates it. She seems to have stacked her Cabinet with Remainers and failed to get them on board anything approaching a saleable Brexit. Every move she has made seems to have weakened her position.

It is seemingly impossible for it to pass, but there are some unknowns in the mix.

1. numbers on the Conservative benches are based on rumour and estimates, and to be honest the media have been shocking at reading how some of the MPs will vote.

2. No one is sure how the Lib Dems and Greens will vote.

3. Despite Labour saying they will vote against the deal there may be some that are anti Corbyn and will vote for it in the hopes it will prevent a Confidence vote and GE. There are only about half a dozen Labour MPs for sure that will vote against the deal.

4. No-one is sure what the Tory rebels will do. They may vote for the deal as a least worst option, or they may try to go for the nuclear option and vote against to try and force Article 50 be cancelled.

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7 Comments

  1. David

     /  January 15, 2019

    May is such a funny woman, she is pushing an agreement no one likes and no one thinks is what the country voted for, twice. Rather than take on the EU from a position of some strength she has decided to take on her party from a point of weakness.
    Brexit preperations have started and if they crash out on WTO terms they will be fine, Europe is a bloody mess and nothing works properly there with Germany now in recession, France on fire, the Italians bankrupt, Greece finished, Spain in slow decline, Scandinavia voting in extreme right parties who work alongside Poland, Hungary and Austria et al.

    Reply
    • Missy

       /  January 15, 2019

      And you have German MPs calling for a European Spring along the lines of the Arab Spring, though to be fair I don’t think they are calling for violence, but more a revolution in the European Union elections in May.

      When I look at the EU I wonder why people are stubbornly holding on to the idea of staying, and worse still trying to push a lot of the fear stories that have been debunked. Insane.

      Reply
  2. Zedd

     /  January 15, 2019

    Ms May was a ‘Remainer’ so it must be hard for her to push the ‘Brexit message’.. BUT it does sound increasingly like, the majority are now having second thoughts & the calls for a ‘second vote’ are getting louder !
    It is not too late to admit ‘We got it wrong’ :/

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  January 15, 2019

      There has been a ‘second vote’, the recent general election where the 2 main parties had in their manifesto support for Brexit – they increased their share of the vote.

      Britain has been on a Brexit trajectory for over 15 years or so.
      They didnt join the Schengen free travel area, thats turned out to their advantage.

      They didnt join the Euro – that turned out to their advantage.

      The formal Brexit is just the next step- which will turn out to their advantage as well.

      Some have called the break with the Pope and Catholicism , led by henry VIII as the Britains ‘first brexit’ That save them from the religious wars that half destroyed europe. It too was to their advantage

      Reply
      • Zedd

         /  January 15, 2019

        all good points; The Bank of England retaining the Pound, being the telling issue.

        England is supposedly ‘CofE’ (Anglican) & protestant but there has been recent pictures of the Archbishop of Canterbury kissing the Pope’s ring & even the Queen bowing down to ‘the King of the World/Grand Over-Lord’ ?? :/

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  January 15, 2019

          Where ? There are no photos of anything but handshakes online, and the idea of the Queen ‘bowing down’ to anyone is absurd. She’s a reigning monarch and would be highly unlikely to see the Pope as king of the world. Who does think that ?

          Reply
    • Missy

       /  January 15, 2019

      The calls for a second vote are only louder in Parliament. There is not the same level of support in the general population, most of the polling is done in Metropolitan areas, but outside of those areas the call for a second vote is not loud at all.

      Based on petitions presented to Parliament twice as many people want to Brexit with no agreement as want a second referendum.

      And the UK didn’t ‘get it wrong’, they voted for something, both outcomes were equally right and wrong, but I believe the long term will show a clean and clear Brexit was the best option considering the direction of the EU.

      Reply

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