Withdrawal Vote expected in UK today

The vote in the UK parliament on the Withdrawal Agreement, which is crucial for Brexit, is expected this morning New Zealand time (after 7 pm Tuesday evening UK time).

Missy reports:


The vote on the Withdrawal Agreement will take place sometime after 7.00pm local time.

Yesterday the PM presented to Parliament letters from Donald Tusk and Jean Claude Juncker stating that the intent is that the Irish Backstop is not meant to be permanent. This has not appeased those against the agreement as it is not a legal document but rather a political assurance, meaning that if there is a dispute the letters will not hold up in court.

Some of the MPs that will be voting against the agreement believe that the EU will come back to the UK with last minute concessions to the agreement. They point to precedents set by the EU where they have agreed to concessions in international agreements at the last minute making way for the agreements to be passed. The most recent example being the Canadian FTA where they agreed the day before Canada was due to walk away.

The EU do respond to brinksmanship, that the UK Government and Remain MPs are not willing to do that is cowardice. They have been brainwashed by the fear mongering, most of which has been debunked.

It will be interesting to note Ireland’s reaction to a vote against the deal, so far they have played the brinksmanship game the best. Ireland have told the EU they will need millions in bailouts and aid in the event of a no deal Brexit, that Ireland have been the most stubborn on the backstop has meant they have garnered very little sympathy in Britain. However, it is possible that if the deal is voted down and a no deal looks more likely then Varadkar would be more inclined to compromise. The next election for Ireland is in 2021, so two years after Brexit, if Varadkar is any sort of politician he will be looking to that as any downturn in the wake of a no deal Brexit may harm him if he is seen as the cause of it.

One of the biggest mistakes that May made was postponing the vote on the deal. If she had held the vote last December and it had failed by a very large margin then she could have used that as leverage to try and get the EU to agree to concessions.

By postponing the debate she has led to the problems of MPs trying to usurp her – and the Government’s – authority on Brexit.

 

42 Comments

  1. Missy

     /  January 16, 2019

  2. Missy

     /  January 16, 2019

    I have just got home and turned on the radio. It seems the HoC are voting on an amendment that essentially appears to say that the Withdrawal Agreement can only be agreed if there is an end date to the backstop. This is what many against the agreement want, so if this passes with more in favour than the agreement itself it will give May something to take to the EU to try for further concessions.

    The vote is expected around 7.30pm due to a number of amendments being withdrawn.

    • Missy

       /  January 16, 2019

      My error, the motion was for the agreement to be agreed if the UK could end the backstop unilaterally. This has been resoundingly defeated, 600-24.

  3. Missy

     /  January 16, 2019

    All day the journalists and experts have been speculating on the size of the defeat for the Government tonight, with some saying it is expected to be the worst in modern history (at the moment that stands at 166 votes), most however are expecting around 150 vote defeat.

    I believe MP’s are voting now.

  4. Missy

     /  January 16, 2019

    Vote is in:

    Ayes 202

    Noes 432

    • Missy

       /  January 16, 2019

      That is a much larger margin than was expected. 230 vote defeat for the Government. The greatest defeat since the 1920’s.

      PM is speaking now. She has stated if the official opposition wishes to put forward a vote of No Confidence the Government will give time for a debate on it tomorrow, if one of the other parties wishes to table a vote of No Confidence the Government will consider giving time for a debate tomorrow.

      This is the PM throwing the gauntlet down to Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn originally said he would table a vote of No Confidence tonight, but then changed his mind and said he would do it next week. It is speculated that he did this because he will be sure to lose at the moment, but if he delays it until after she has gone back to the HoC he may get the support of Rebel Conservatives, or at least them abstaining.

      • Missy

         /  January 16, 2019

        As I was posting that Corbyn tabled a vote of No Confidence in the Government. This will be debated tomorrow.

  5. Missy

     /  January 16, 2019

    • Missy

       /  January 16, 2019

      The DUP have said they will support the Government on the motion of No Confidence.

      It is being discussed at the moment. The general belief is that Conservative MPs will rally, and that the motion will be failed. They have said that if anyone brings down Theresa May it will be the Cabinet, and there was a report tonight that they talked her into staying on today. It is believed that if she goes now it will cause quite severe economic shock, and also some have said she will stay on as she was quite critical of David Cameron creating a mess and leaving when it got too hard.

      I don’t like how she has managed Brexit, but I admire her fortitude and tenacity – even if it is wrong.

  6. duperez

     /  January 16, 2019

    The vote announcement on RNZ and some angles about the imbroglio was followed immediately by an item about the Ngāpuhi mandate for their Treaty settlement. A local version of their problem.

    • thespectrum

       /  January 16, 2019

      @duperez “and some angles about the( imbroglio)”
      Actually the 12-13 year old school girls on the 3.15pm bus from town out to the cliff
      use “imbroglio” lots. Just today one lass admitted to the back 6 rows of the buss.
      “I am so qualmish as I have discerned I am now in an invidious
      imbroglia with regards my physics assignment”

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  January 16, 2019

        What a showoff. I wonder if she knows the meanings of the words she’s using; it doesn’t sound like it. Nothing sounds sillier than someone trying to impress and getting the words wrong.

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  January 16, 2019

          Four of the words are used wrongly; imbroglio, qualmish, discerned and invidious.

          • thespectrum

             /  January 16, 2019

            Yes but they are only 12-13 year old bus kids Kitty. I had trouble with Latin declensions at that age. It’s the forlt of there parents. Kids now days only do 2 hours prep each night where as we did 3. BTW at my alama meter we would say incorrectly not wrongly.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  January 17, 2019

              😀

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  January 17, 2019

              A Latin verb loved a Latin noun,
              And sadly did he pine;
              He wanted to ask her to conjugate,
              But knew that she’d decline.

  7. Missy

     /  January 16, 2019

  8. Gezza

     /  January 16, 2019

    Jesus. What a train wreck.

    • Missy

       /  January 16, 2019

      That’s what happens when Remainer civil servants are put in charge of the negotiating of the Withdrawal Agreement, sidelining the Secretary of State.

      On a podcast I listen to a political journalist said that he was told by someone close to the negotiations that the team leading it basically didn’t negotiate, they just said yes to whatever the EU told them, and then told the PM that the EU only offered that and wouldn’t change their minds. If that is true then it has been a debacle from the start, and the UK has been completely undermined by Oliver Robbins (the civil servant negotiating the deal).

      • Gezza

         /  January 16, 2019

        “Off with his head !” 💂👑💂

        These things used to be so simple.

        • Missy

           /  January 16, 2019

          Indeed. Many have been calling for him to be sacked since the Chequers deal was publicised.

          • Gezza

             /  January 16, 2019

            I still struggle with the backstop. Where had things got to with that?
            … … …
            This is what I’ve found on BBC ( website summarised by me)
            The EU originally proposed a backstop that would mean Northern Ireland staying in the EU customs union, large parts of the single market and the EU VAT system.

            If a backstop only applied to Northern Ireland, then the customs and regulatory border would essentially be drawn down the middle of the Irish Sea. Goods coming into Northern Ireland from elsewhere in the UK would have to be checked to make sure they met EU standards.

            Theresa May continually rejected the EU’s proposal saying it would threaten the constitutional integrity of the UK. She suggested a backstop that would see the UK, as a whole, remaining aligned with the EU customs union for a limited time after 2020.

            When the UK govt’s full legal advice was finally released, it did state that NI alone could end up in a customs union with the EU under the terms of the backstop, [meaning I think that goods coming into NI from the UK would have to be checked against EU customs and regulatory requirements – Gez?]

            Ultimately, if the backstop deal does not stick, then there is no withdrawal agreement and no transition period. That means a hard, possibly chaotic, Brexit. At that point, the EU and the Irish government would have some difficult decisions to make about what happens at the border or to Irish goods going into the wider single market.
            … … …

            Have I got this right?

            • Missy

               /  January 16, 2019

              From what I understand about the backstop you have it right.

              As for the border in Ireland, the UK have said they will not put up a hard border (with checks etc), and will honour the common travel area that has been in place since the 1920’s. The EU also claim that they will not put up a hard border.

              My understanding is that there is no proposed changes across the border, but only a minimal amount of the goods into Northern Ireland from the EU go via road in Ireland, most go by sea via Britain.

              Also the majority of what Northern Ireland ‘exports’ as such apparently goes to Britain (England, Scotland, Wales), so having them in a separate Customs Union to the rest of the UK would not be beneficial to them.

              Ireland exports most of its products to the UK over other EU countries, so it has been suggested Ireland and the UK have a separate Customs Union, the EU rejected this, but as some have pointed out that is no different to Ireland being in a permanent Customs Union with the EU.

              To some it looks like the Irish Border has been used by the EU and the Republic to try to get the UK to heel, and it has worked, with those negotiating believing the fear mongering. As Varadkar has consistently campaigned for Northern Ireland to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market there are some that think they are trying to use this to force the issue of reunification.

            • Duker

               /  January 16, 2019

              So the EU says the checks must be in the Irish Sea not on the internal Irish border ?

              Why not have checks between Ireland and the EU instead. After all the Irish opted out of the Schengen passport check area to align with Britain.

              Everyones happy as the direct Ireland-France shipping ( as the only feasible direct links with the EU) must be tiny compared to what goes through UK direct.

            • Missy

               /  January 17, 2019

              Some in the UK have suggested something similar to that Duker, however, as Ireland are a member of the EU they must do what the EU says, it doesn’t matter that their biggest export market is the UK.

              It will be interesting if this increases support for Ireland to exit. Once the new EU tax laws are passed and Ireland have to increase their taxes to be equal with the rest of the EU there may be some soul searching.

        • thespectrum

           /  January 16, 2019

          Gezza. “These things used to be so simple”.
          People thought that for 500 years.
          Then the dark ages came to an end.

          • Gezza

             /  January 16, 2019

            Did they? Have you done a head count of the millions who died in WW1 and WW2 and those who are still being murdered in their thousands and being executed all round the world?

            • thespectrum

               /  January 16, 2019

              That’s why it is silly to say things used to be simple.
              Yes the head count is 397 million 532 thousand 417 up to 4pm NZ standard time Jan 16th 2019.

  9. Patzcuaro

     /  January 16, 2019

    • Gezza

       /  January 16, 2019

      If there is a God it has a rich sense of humour.

      (Mind you, when you look at what we have to do to reproduce I’ve always thought that!)

      😀

      • Missy

         /  January 16, 2019

        Nothing to do with God. They are aware of when the recordings are happening and timed it to pass as it happened. The Remain protestors that have been at Westminster for the last 2 and a bit years have been doing it a lot and getting themselves seen and heard in the back of live broadcasts from College Green.

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  January 16, 2019

        Not something I’ve often looked at, Sir Gerald. Never been one for spectator sport.

  10. thespectrum

     /  January 16, 2019

    “Opposition tables no confidence in Government”.
    That’s all opposition parties ever do.
    What’s new?

    • Missy

       /  January 17, 2019

      Who are you quoting? If it is me please get it correct, I said the Opposition tabled a vote of no confidence in the Government.

      No, it isn’t all the opposition parties do, you really don’t follow politics too closely do you? Last vote of No Confidence in the UK was in 1979 when Margaret Thatcher tabled a vote of No Confidence in the Labour Government of James Callaghan, a vote that led to the General Election that Margaret Thatcher won.

  11. Alan Wilkinson

     /  January 16, 2019

  12. PDB

     /  January 16, 2019

    Look out for the cameo from Jeremy Corbyn….