Immigration numbers revised down

Using different and supposedly more accurate methods  Statistics NZ  has revised downwards the number immigrants who have stayed in New Zealand over the last few years. net immigration peaked at 64,000 in 2016 instead of the previous estimate of 72,500.

NZ Herald:  NZ has fewer people than we thought … so we don’t need to build so many houses

New Zealand’s immigration boom wasn’t as big as reported at the time, a major revision by Statistics NZ has found.

That means we’ll need to build fewer houses to meet the current shortage, says Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod.

The new, more accurate data shows there’s fewer people in New Zealand than we thought and that has major implications for the economic outlook, he says.

Net migration peaked at 64,000 in mid-2016, not 72,500 in 2017, according to revised figures.

It is now tracking at 43,000 – about 20,000 fewer migrants a year than previously thought.

That means we’ll need to build fewer houses to meet the current shortage, says Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod.

Stats NZ has revised the figures based on new research about how many of our new long-term arrivals actually stay in the country.

The previous data was based on the intended length of stay, as recorded on immigration forms by long-term migrants when they arrived at the border.

But it turns out more migrants decide not to stick around than we thought.

That’s particularly true for those in the 20-29 age bracket, which includes a large proportion of international students.

Population figures are due later this month which will be lower than previous estimates.

Ranchhod estimates the rate of population growth hit two per cent in 2016 and has slowed to 1.5 per cent.

This will have an impact on housing needs estimates.

More from Statistics NZ:

Leave a comment

16 Comments

  1. PartisanZ

     /  1st February 2019

    Far out!!! We don’t know “accurately” how many immigrants have arrived!?

    And seriously … The NZHeraldo turns a difference of just 8,000 people in the 60 – 70,000 immigrants range into a headline “NZ has fewer people than we thought … so we don’t need to build so many houses” …?

    And FFS, they want us to ‘subscribe’? Like PAY MONEY for tripe such as this!?

    WAAAAAAAT DAAAAAAAA FAAAAAAAAAARRRCK!!!!

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  1st February 2019

      I wouldn’t put it quite so indelicately, but are they seriously expecting people to pay for that ?

      😀 😀 😀

      Oh…..they are … 😦

      Reply
  2. Duker

     /  1st February 2019

    So they haven’t been doing the numbers properly based on departure cards…on top of not doing the census properly.
    The public service is broken…..you see it in instance after instance…the Christchurch earthquake Fiasco’s….rampant immigration scams… M Bovis failure to implement, the legislation was passed when Jim Anderson was agriculture minister…..

    Reply
    • It will all be absolutely sorted this year with the promised delivery of wellbeing, done with kindness.

      Reply
      • Ray

         /  1st February 2019

        It must be true, I have not seen a story about people living in cars since Labour took the Treasury Benchs.
        Rest easy Minister Twyford, your work is done.
        Onward a Budget full of wellbeing and kindness.

        Reply
        • artcroft

           /  1st February 2019

          Very true. Media always give their Labour cronies an easy ride.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  1st February 2019

            Immgration down housing numbers up overall, foreign buyers blocked.
            All great news

            Reply
      • Duker

         /  1st February 2019

        So a Brighter Future wasn’t a buzz word back in 2008.

        Reply
  3. Corky

     /  1st February 2019

    ”That means we’ll need to build fewer houses to meet the current shortage, says Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod.”

    What?

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  1st February 2019

      Quite.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  1st February 2019

        Christ. If they build any fewer than so far the number will be 10.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  1st February 2019

          300 by July.
          Bridges said last night the only thing they got wrong over the housing crisis was ‘that they should have done more Quicker’

          In fact they couldn’t get their lies all lined up when Key claimed Wins and the Sallies knocked on car windows and offers of help declined

          Reply
  4. Geoffrey Monks

     /  1st February 2019

    So the folk slumped down in the corner of a bus shelter should take heart. Their lack of a home results largely from some sort of finger problems in the Dept of Statistics. The reality is that there is no need to queue, just pay the dosh and move in. Oh, no, wait; first get the dosh and then pay a million dollars for a $60 000 house

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  1st February 2019

      That’s not what they are saying..just their previous numbers were a ‘bit high’. Doesn’t mean house prices weren’t pushed to massive highs or the new builds hadn’t kept with population increase let alone record migration numbers.
      We are still at 1.5% yearly increase , while US and UK are at 0.8%

      Reply
  5. Geoffrey Monks

     /  1st February 2019

    Is that 1.5% before or after the figures were revised? Who,if anyone in the entire Dept of Statistics, was fired for such a giant cock up?

    Reply
  1. ‘NZ Sovereignty’ rallies against immigration | Your NZ

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s