Newshub/Reid Research poll – February 2019

It’s a long time since there has been a Newshub/Reid Research poll, and the only other poll so far this year (1 News/Colmar Brunton) was taken before politics cranked up for the year, so this latest poll needs to be treated with more caution than usual.

  • Labour 47.5% (up 4.9%)
  • National 41.6% (down 3.5%)
  • Greens 5.1% (down 0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.9% (up 0.5%)

Asked “Performing well?”:

  • Jacinda Ardern yes 68.3%, no 16.8%
  • Simon Bridges yes 21.9%, no 50.8%

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 41.6%
  • Judith Collins 6.2%
  • Simon Bridges 5.0%
  • Winston Peters

As usual Newshub are overegging this poll result:

It was taken before Parliament sits this week, and after a PR friendly trip to the UK and Europe, and Waitangi Day events – but it’s a very good result for Ardern and Labour and ok for the Greens, who together wouldn’t require NZ First if they fail to get back up to beat the threshold.

But there is no question that this poll is bad for Bridges – and to make matters worse he sounded like a wet blanket trying to talk his way through it.

It’s hard to see National persevering with him for many more months.

Poll results since the election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

UPDATE: Newshub report: National plunges to worst result in over a decade

This poll was taken from January 24 to February 2, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

So they delayed releasing the results for a week. That seems unusual. It was taken while and just after Ardern was getting glowing reports from her European trip, and before Waitangi week.

Leave a comment

95 Comments

  1. PDB

     /  February 11, 2019

    The MSM are too obvious – they have been working for some time to get Collins made leader of the opposition and they are well on the way there. Labour & National continue to jump around between each other whilst NZL first continue to be very low.

    Reply
    • High Flying Duck

       /  February 11, 2019

      It’s still not a good look for National to be flirting with under 40% given the free hits they’ve had over the last year.
      However, the Govt also gets a free pass in year one, and it is the year of delivery that will make or break them.
      Simon is just not doing a great job of focussing the attacks and has fallen into the Angry Andy bark at every car strategy that always fails. Especially when it is over trivial and wrong things like our “deteriorating relationship with China” that the Air NZ turnback supposedly signaled – until Air NZ apologised for the cock-up.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  February 11, 2019

        he doesnt have a filter..even though its ‘his people’ doing his social media account, he surely must OK everything ?

        Reply
      • PDB

         /  February 11, 2019

        Bridges is a dead-man walking whilst the MSM want Collins as opposition leader as she makes ‘good copy’ and provides a more aggressive & direct sort of politics in stark contrast to Arderns wishy-washy approach. Last thing they would want is an Adams or Kaye taking over.

        The party vote as a one-off wouldn’t be as big as a concern for National with the considerable MSM exposure Ardern has had from her recent trips abroad and the fact parliament has been on holiday for some time. If National’s party vote continues to show lower numbers then Bridges time is cut even shorter.

        As they say timing is everything in politics and I’d suggest ideally National want to change their leader much closer to the election for maximum impact rather than be forced into doing that now.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  February 11, 2019

          The numbers are for Collins…not the MSM…well if you can call those numbers after a long career in the headlines worthwhile.
          Bridges at least was largely invisible until he got his henchmen Ross and McClay to lever him into power

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  February 11, 2019

            Bridges had enuf appearances on tv to be one of the better-known National cabinet ministers, imo. Seen & heard enuf in this whare for me to be surprised they picked him as leader because he invariably always sounded flat, dull, unimaginative, robotic, & an atrocious English-speaker.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  February 11, 2019

              Not better known …name never appeared in any voters choices

            • Blazer

               /  February 11, 2019

              I remember telling you he was a hope…and recall you saying why!!..we are both ..right.

            • Gezza

               /  February 11, 2019

              @duker

              Yes he was better-known. That’s why his name never appeared in any voters choices.

            • Gezza

               /  February 11, 2019

              @ Blazer, if that was to me, I don’t recall that. I’ve been calling him robotic-sounding for as long as his name’s ever come up here. He always seemed to be hanging off John Key’s coat-tails whenever he showed up on tv, unless he was talking roading issues. But he’s never been inspiring-sounding. I was astounded he was picked as leader and assumed he must have some hidden talents not visible to the rest of us, but it appears his talents for the leader’s job are closer Andy Little’s than anybody else’s.

            • phantom snowflake

               /  February 11, 2019

              Bridges is very much a nerd by nature, and is also the product of a conservative christian upbringing. That particular combination was never going to be a winner as far as ‘Middle New Zealand’ is concerned.

            • Blazer

               /  February 11, 2019

              surprised but not surprised you don’t recall that..you made an issue of it on a number of occasions..I based it on him being a slavish Key clone and the naked ambition he..displayed.

            • Gezza

               /  February 11, 2019

              Hmm. I might do a search later & see what I can find. I remember your frequent assertions he was a Key clone & nakedly ambitious. But I don’t recall ever agreeing he was actually anything like John Key or that he was an obvious choice. Perhaps somewhere you might have persuaded me that, looking at the remaining crew once English & Joyce had bailed, they didn’t really have many other options.

              But I’ve never rated Bridges as anything but a plodder, from memory.

              I didn’t think Collins would be popular with anyone but hard core, hardline Nats & that Kaye wouldn’t be a good counter to Ardern, too waspish. Can’t remember what I thought of Adams. Do remember saying they’d be better off with a bloke.

              But, whatever, the way things are going with Bridges at the helm I think they might as well bite the bullet & put Collins in charge. I can’t see any other contender sharp enuf. She’ll no doubt make some stuff ups but she would at least be entertaining & grab media attention.

              National’s problem I suspect is that having had a change of government – and notwithstanding Labour’s plans are still airey-fairy – enuf people are now prepared to wait & see if some changes are worth making to the conservative National Party approach to governing that their support is dropping away in middle NZ because they’re negative & people at a visceral level like the feel-good, positive vibe still emanating from the coalition & Jacinda.

              She’s still got the female vote sewn up, imo.

            • Gezza

               /  February 11, 2019

              @ Blazer – nah I can’t see what you’re referring to. I don’t seem to have ever rated Bridges but I’m sure there’ve been a lot more discussions on their leadership race than Google or a search of this site have turned up for me. You might be thinking of the first one where I agreed that National seemed to be setting Bridges up to take over, but I wasn’t sure whether he would be chosen – once his leaders were gone it was up to the rest of their caucus.

              https://yournz.org/2017/11/25/media-beat-national-leadership-drums/#comment-234547

              https://yournz.org/2018/02/18/national-leadership-safe-option-or-risk/#comment-252869

              https://yournz.org/2018/02/16/national-leadership-speculation-in-full-swing/#comment-252353

              https://yournz.org/2018/02/16/national-leadership-speculation-in-full-swing/#comment-252406

        • Blazer

           /  February 11, 2019

          what team would you suggest ..leader and dep?

          Reply
    • Blazer

       /  February 11, 2019

      how do you like dem apples PDB…next time listen to…moi…I picked it as you will know.

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  February 11, 2019

        The way you were talking National had plummeted to late 30%s Blazer – as I’m generous you can have 0.25 of a point.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  February 11, 2019

          how very ungracious of you.I never mentioned 30%.Typical.

          Reply
          • PDB

             /  February 11, 2019

            Your prediction was “National plummet in///polls!”

            Only in your world would ‘plummet in polls!’ be a 3.5% drop with a margin of error of 3.1%. Gave you a mark for getting the direction at least right.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  February 11, 2019

              um…not just me…
              Under Simon Bridges, National has nosedived to its worst result in more than a decade, according to a new political poll.’

              plummet…nose dive ..worst result in more than a decade…I will let others be the judge!

            • PDB

               /  February 11, 2019

              Only you would buy the MSM spin: Tova O’Brien: Simon Bridges’ trifecta from hell” – “National has plunged under his leadership”.

              Last poll done before Bridges was made National leader was a Colmar Brunton one undertaken 10th-14th Feb 2018 & it’s almost identical to this one: Lab: 48%, Nats 43%, NZL 1st 2.6, Greens 5, ACT 0.5.

              Plummet: “a steep and rapid fall or drop” – 3.5% drop with a margin of error of 3.1% is nowhere close.

            • Blazer

               /  February 11, 2019

              @PDB..honestly a poll in Feb 2019 means little to me..if you are so excited in semantics and margins…the best is yet to…cum.

            • PDB

               /  February 11, 2019

              “if you are so excited in semantics and margins”

              You were the one complaining about my very generous 0.25 of a point awarded to you!

            • Blazer

               /  February 11, 2019

              tut tut..at maths you are a big dud…i.e..’a trifecta is 3..a quinella is 2…settle down!

            • PDB

               /  February 11, 2019

              What are you rabbiting on about now?

  2. Trevors_Elbow

     /  February 11, 2019

    Most important two words: Reid Research.. Reid NEVER show National in a positive light.

    When national poll 3-4 times in the mid to high 30’s the Party will be concerned…

    Lets see what the polls look like when Jacinda actually attends Parliament and answers questions on immigration matters, dodgy IRD polling etc….

    Reply
    • Trevors_Elbow

       /  February 11, 2019

      Oh and the re-calibration of Kiwibuild – i.e. the promise back down on house builds…

      Reply
    • PDB

       /  February 11, 2019

      Not sure how true the Reid Research thing is as previous results from them don’t seem to support that.

      Be interesting to see where the ‘undecided’ sat at for this poll.

      Reply
    • You’re right about seeing what happens once Parliament has been back in session for a while. One poll in isolation means a bit but not necessarily a lot, unless swings in support are sustained or increase.

      Ardern and her Government certainly have challenges that they have to rise to by the end of this year.

      But I think Bridges has more immediate problems. He is misfiring and mangling his job as Leader of the Opposition. He stuffed up today about an Air NZ flight that returned mid flight on it’s way to China – Air NZ have admitted they stuffed up.

      I don’t see any way National can keep Bridges on if they want to seriously contest next year’s election.

      Reply
    • Blazer

       /  February 11, 2019

      very good to see you are behind the B tewam 100% Trev.Get in..behind…

      Reply
  3. Corky

     /  February 11, 2019

    National didn’t need to endure this result. They could have lead this poll. They won’t listen. Time to reap their reward. I can’t see coming polls being too different unless National reinvent themselves. But have they the flair? One things for sure, they need a sheila at the helm..preferably one who is 360 degrees inverse to Labour’s fairy princess.

    Reply
  4. duperez

     /  February 11, 2019

    The hysteria about the poll already is quite funny. What I am amused by are some of the usually boisterous avid anti-this government types putting it in a big positive perspective.

    They have NZ First confirmed to history with a sort of glorious and glee. The sort of glee of someone shrieking and pointing to the presence of the little toe on their right foot and delirious that it’s there. And ignoring the fact their left leg and most of their right foot has been blown off.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  February 11, 2019

      Well thats the Political Spin 101…make lemons into lemonade…the mugs who work for national know this sort of spin by heart..and so they appear here to try it out.
      At Farrarblog it will be a full laundromat mode

      Reply
      • Griff.

         /  February 11, 2019

        KB?

        But what is very interesting is that NZ First are below 3% and well on their way to being outski at the election, and also the Greens are also hovering on the verge of outski also.

        The next few months will be interesting as both minor parties scramble to get above or stay above 5%.

        DPF’s spin glosses over the unpalatable truth.
        MMP if you dont get 5% the party vote is wasted .
        On the polling If both the Greens and NZ First dont make 5% labor will comfortably get to govern alone.

        Reply
        • PDB

           /  February 11, 2019

          What you don’t know is what DPF’s polling is showing which is likely to be more accurate – definitely his are undertaken more regularly as to show a trend which these one-off polls don’t. He may be going on his own internal polling which shows National still regularly ahead of Labour & both minor govt partners barely 5%, therefore his comment is valid.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  February 11, 2019

            More accurate? Is that more of your magic talk…anyway if that was so Bridges would be hinting at that.
            A few home truths though NZF gets better votes than the polls , as the older demographic votes more than their share of the population

            Reply
            • PDB

               /  February 11, 2019

              Duker: “A few home truths though NZF gets better votes than the polls”

              A few other home truths – NZL First has shat on its supporters from a great height this time so historic info might not be as reliable next election & the Greens are traditionally the opposite; poll higher than they actually get.

          • High Flying Duck

             /  February 12, 2019

            The Herald article (Audrey Young) mentioned National’s internal polling had them still ahead of Labour last night.
            I just checked the same article this morning and that line is gone.

            Reply
            • High Flying Duck

               /  February 12, 2019

              Was in Tracey Watkins article on Stuff as you posted below…

    • PDB

       /  February 11, 2019

      Just one isolated poll dupz so don’t get too excited. Very few (is there any?) people on here think Bridges is up to much so with him flailing about it’s what we all expect.

      As for NZL First – if they continue to poll this low then their only course of action is to cause trouble within the Coalition govt & reassert their independence as they have done before when in govt. Be careful that ‘little toe’ doesn’t become septic & poison the rest of the body.

      Reply
  5. Regardless of the poll, I’ve been very disappointed in Bridges’ performance as leader, and a number of policy positions he has indicated.

    As things stand now I certainly wouldn’t vote for National in a general election.

    I’m reserving judgment on Labour for now, but I wouldn’t vote NZ First, and am unlikely to vote green unless something major changes with them.

    So I am looking for something not currently in Parliament. I don’t know about TOP under new leadership, and it’s far too soon to judge the prospects of the Sustainability Party – but going by the reaction from the left,trying to dump on them, I think the are a possible prospect. First they have to get 500 members – a fairly challenging target for a brand new party.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  February 11, 2019

      ” far too soon to judge the prospects of the Sustainability Party ”
      Did you even read the big dump they did on NZ First and even the Greens
      “The coalition arrangements of the current government allocated billions of dollars to political trophies and slush funds – the price of NZ First support for a Labour-led Government. We have also seen the scrapping of important environmental initiatives like the mandatory installation of cameras on fishing boats because the fishing industry are key NZ First donors and supporters. ”
      and then the Greens
      “The Green Party has made a deliberate decision not to use the leverage that comes with the number of MPs they have in Parliament. Instead of negotiating with both major parties, they have made a decision to always support the formation of a Labour Government meaning that Labour can take them for granted. This is no way to get the best deal for the environment.”

      Sounds like Mcully has been has ghost written the spiel…. getting in some hits, and not talking about ‘Sustainability.’ , other than just as a buzz word.

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  February 11, 2019

        Both those points are environment related so not sure what your point is. If billions of $ of taxpayer money is being thrown away to bribe Winston and his mates that is less money for the environment (plus the fishing boat camera backdown) whilst the Greens are happy to be handed whatever they are given because they are joined at the hip with the Labour party.

        Reply
  6. Gezza

     /  February 11, 2019

    Tova was wallowing in viciousness references to the knife etc.

    Not the result I was expecting after the hits National has been scoring on Labour, but the tv3 line that Bridges has dragged National Party support down rings true.

    “New Zealand’s most accurate poll” is the line they’ve been pumping out. Is that true?

    I might yet pick up a $2 bag of jet planes rather than have to fork out for one. If they have to dump Bridges as leader, & I think they do, National’s better to do it now rather than demoralise the whole team & force them to talk obvious bs about his having their full support for another year.

    Colmar Brunton next. Winder how they’ll compare.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  February 11, 2019

      snakes and dinosaurs are usually better value..at least the Pascal /Allens bags in NW are.Some are 180gm,and some are 200gm..same price.

      Reply
    • duperez

       /  February 11, 2019

      Tova O’Brien went right into Paddy Gower mode. That style didn’t suit him let alone her!

      Reply
      • I thought it was outrageous for a political editor to be dramatising what was just a poll, trying to make major news happen from it.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  February 11, 2019

          She’s a piece of work is that one. Can’t stand her.

          Reply
          • PDB

             /  February 11, 2019

            Tova O’Brien: Simon Bridges’ trifecta from hell.

            Sounds a bit over the top.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  February 11, 2019

              a trifecta is 3..a quinella is 2…settle down..[deleted]

            • PDB

               /  February 11, 2019

              What?

            • Blazer

               /  February 11, 2019

              you are as thick as ..mince..TRIFECTA

              1. A system of betting in which the bettor must pick the first three winners in the correct sequence. Also called triple.
              2. A set or combination of three things: “the media’s portrayal of the moral trifecta of sex, violence, and profanity” (Gregory Stevenson).

            • PDB

               /  February 11, 2019

              You’re an idiot – why are you explaining to me what a trifecta is if I already know that? What are you on about?

            • High Flying Duck

               /  February 12, 2019

              comprehension is a bit down today Blazer?

              I’ll help with some added punctuation:

              Tova O’Brien: “Simon Bridges’ trifecta from hell.”

  7. This poll was taken from January 24 to February 2, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

    So they delayed releasing the results for a week. That seems unusual. It was taken while and just after Ardern was getting glowing reports from her European trip, and before Waitangi week.

    I have updated the post with this.

    Reply
  8. Blazer

     /  February 11, 2019

    journalism TODAY..embraced by NAational compliments of TS.

    Reply
  9. Blazer

     /  February 11, 2019

    wrong thread.

    Reply
  10. Gezza

     /  February 11, 2019

    So, I mentioned this poll result to the other dairy owner on the way home from ma’s (I haven’t been game enuf to risk another $2 bag of jet planes with this one). He says Labour will go back. He said his business is doing better under a Labour led government because “National only helps rich people. Rich people don’t spend. Labour helps lower income people & they spend more.” “So your business is doing better under Labour than under National?”. ” Oh yes, definitely, people with not much money are spending more here than before”. People don’t care about who’s popular or not, Gez. They vote on their back pockets”.

    Reply
    • High Flying Duck

       /  February 12, 2019

      Did he know where this extra magic money he talks about people having because of Labour has come from?

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  February 12, 2019

        Yes, some of it comes from him, but he gets more back than he pays out.

        Reply
        • High Flying Duck

           /  February 12, 2019

          Not sure what you mean? Labour hasn’t exactly filled the pockets of the lower income levels since being elected?

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  February 12, 2019

            Well, that’s clearly his perception on why his profits are up. Rich folk don’t shop in his dairy. It’s mostly manual workers, especially road-workers, and beneficiaries. Dozens of workers’ trucks stop to pick up lunches and snacks from the nearby bakery & nip into his store for drinks and cokes, maybe cigs and the odd bag of cheezels or whatever.

            Reply
            • High Flying Duck

               /  February 12, 2019

              Sounds like he’s getting the benefit of the National economy that created so many new jobs.
              I wonder if he’ll change his tune as the jobs continue to dry up.

            • Gezza

               /  February 12, 2019

              Me too. We’ll have to wait and see. Depends on how the wellbeing budget delivers.

  11. Patzcuaro

     /  February 11, 2019

    Jamie Lee Ross looks to have drawn blood. Voters don’t like stuff ups but they really don’t like internal party squabbling.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  February 11, 2019

      Has he drawn blood? He quite likely gave Bridges that little fillip in the last CB poll. You could be right but Bridges & National have come out with policy announcements & criticisms of the government that I think appeal mainly or only their hard core supporters since then. Maybe he’s just resumed the downward trajectory he was already on before JLR seized the headlines. (1ewes at 6 pretended the poll never even took place.)

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  February 11, 2019

        yes Bridges played a masterstroke in connecting the Air NZ flight snafu with Chinese political discontent…Dr Jiang must be in his ear.

        I wonder when this National M.P will ever change his stance on not giving interviews to English speaking media…all done in the best ..possible..taste!

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  February 11, 2019

          Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the reason an Air New Zealand plane was turned back from Shanghai yesterday was an “administrative error” rather than politically motivated. The flight was refused entry to Shanghai, with airport officials saying it had no regulatory authority to land there.

          National Party leader Simon Bridges says questions need to be asked. “We need to know what has happened here. Is it part of the ongoing deterioration in relations between this NZ Govt & China?” he tweeted yesterday. Mr Bridges told TVNZ1’s Breakfast this morning that the relationship between the two countries is deteriorating and suggested the flight return might also be related to this.

          But Ms Ardern this afternoon said the turnaround of the flight was “very much an administrative issue”. “Aircraft travelling into China require to be registered. This aircraft was not. That is the issue that has occurred here,” she said during her post-Cabinet news conference.

          Ms Ardern was asked if she would be seeking assurances from Chinese authorities that the turnaround of the plane wasn’t politically motivated.”I see absolutely no need given that Air New Zealand have said themselves they know exactly what the issue was, that they did not meet requirements on behalf of China. And as a resiult they understand what has occurred in this situation and there’s an explanation for it,” she replied.

          “I think it is important* to be really clear and not confuse administrative and regulatory issues as issues to do with the relationship. And I think Air New Zealand have been very clear on that form their perspective,” the Prime Minister said.
          Video embedded.
          https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/turnaround-air-nz-flight-shanghai-not-relationship-issue-china-pm-says?variant=tb_v_1

          [*she said impordint. Also, the count of ums and ahs from her in replying to questions is increasing to unacceptable levels, in my opinon, and this needs to be addressed before they become the bulk of her responses.]

          Reply
          • High Flying Duck

             /  February 12, 2019

            Followed up today with:

            “China, New Zealand links sink to new low: PM Jacinda Ardern’s visit on hold, tourism project postponed

            Diplomatic links with China appear to have plummeted to a new low as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is given the cold shoulder by Beijing and a major tourism promotion is postponed by the superpower.

            Ardern was scheduled to visit China early this year but the invitation has been put on hold.

            The 2019 China-New Zealand Year of Tourism was meant to be launched with great fanfare at Wellington’s Te Papa museum next week, but that has been postponed by China.
            ….
            Sources in Beijing say China plans trade retaliation and the turning back of an Air New Zealand plane at the weekend may not have been a coincidence. Sources say the airline has been trying to secure extra landing slots in Shanghai without success.”
            https://www.nzheald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12202902

            So maybe some fire with the smoke after all?

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  February 12, 2019

              Quite possibly, it now seems. Tuff situation if so. Being screwed by Trump & being screwed by Xi.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  February 12, 2019

              Jacinda has cleverly managed to offend both of them…

            • Gezza

               /  February 12, 2019

              And maybe Simon’s got some supporters in the msm. Wonder when the next Colmar Brunton will be out. Unless it’s come up on their Breakfast show, tvnz seems to still be ignoring tv3’s Reid Research poll.

            • Gezza

               /  February 12, 2019

              With Simon saying we should probably be using Huawei for our 5G network, he’d probably only be annoying one. But of course if National were in power, it’d probably be a different story.

            • High Flying Duck

               /  February 12, 2019

              If he does, they keep VERY well hidden…
              I think both networks ignore the rival polling.

  12. PDB

     /  February 11, 2019

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  February 11, 2019

      Will it be left to Paula to leak the internal polling results?

      Reply
      • PDB

         /  February 11, 2019

        Tracy Watkins, Stuff.co:

        “Is it time for National to panic?
        Anecdotally, the Newshub poll is out of whack with National’s own internal polling, which is said to put it ahead of Labour.
        But polls have a way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies. And that is what Bridges will fear most.”

        Reply
  13. duperez

     /  February 11, 2019

    Fancy that, I went onto Kiwiblog and came across some meltdowns.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  February 11, 2019

      What did you expect?

      Reply
      • duperez

         /  February 11, 2019

        I assumed that most contributors with the ability to read and write would think that the results of a political poll had come out and life would go on. In a movie some of them would be slapped on the face as a way of dealing with their hysteria. Meltdowns!

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  February 11, 2019

          Life never goes on for fanatics. Some of the commentators on this blog have surely taught you that? Not forgetting TS.

          Reply
  14. Zedd

     /  February 12, 2019

    come on down Paula.. ‘your time to shine’ is here ! 😀

    Reply

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