Core party support versus floating voters

That doesn’t mean they are guaranteed levels of vote the parties will get though. Indicating they are close to a single party doesn’t mean they will vote for them (tactical voting) or vote at all.

Greens dropped to 4.3% in a Colmar Brunton poll before the last election (12-16 August 2017), but that could be margin of error and/or disgruntled supporters and/or tactical voters the question asked is who would you vote for if an election was held today).

And of course this is historical data subject to margins of error. Support for parties will always ebb and flow.

One important number isn’t included – 43.5% did not rate themselves as close to a single party. That’s a big chunk of floating voters not committed to any one party. When you take into account tactical voting somewhere around half of voters may be up for grabs.

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13 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  17th February 2019

    Yes, the floating voters decide the elections and their rationales for doing so mostly wouldn’t withstand much scrutiny and are wide open to manipulation.

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  17th February 2019

      The lazy bums who don’t vote and then compiain about the election result never really seem to ‘get it’, do they ?

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  17th February 2019

      Strange thing to say. In my experience many floating voters are often the more intelligent ones because they refuse to allow themselves to be manipulated by a particular party on a regular basis like hard core party loyalists who’ll vote the same party every election, whether their policies, or leaders, are good, bad, silly or indifferent.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  17th February 2019

        The ones who voted for Greg O’Connor and the Maori Party, you mean?

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  17th February 2019

          One of mine that I voted for is in government, even if he has turned out to be a bs artist on cannabis law change, & so far not impressive. But I won’t vote for him again because of that. Blind Party faithful still would.

          No one you voted for even got elected. You didn’t even vote.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  18th February 2019

            Actually I did by stopping two bad votes outweighing my good one. That’s tactical not voting.

            Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  18th February 2019

            Oh, and the fact that a random voter’s vote got a no-hoper elected is a bad thing, not a good thing.

            Reply
  2. NOEL

     /  17th February 2019

    That’s higher than I expected. But that will make it real interesting this next election.
    I do wish we had a “pox on all their houses” box on the voting form.

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  17th February 2019

      A plague a’ both your houses/They have made worms’ meat of me !’ (Mercutio, Romeo and Juliet)

      What % don’t bother to vote ?

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  17th February 2019

        80% in round figures do. I would guess that the undecideds would be in the 20%, which would make the other figures higher (???) Or is my maths out ?

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  17th February 2019

          80%is those enrolled and voted, could be another 15% who aren’t enrolled at all, more so in urban seats where people move home more often, less in rural areas

          Reply
  3. PartisanZ

     /  17th February 2019

    A world without Winston …

    In some ways he’s been an adulthood equivalent to a growing-up pervaded by the Crewe murders and Arthur Alan Thomas’s trials and final pardon …

    Reply
  1. Core party support versus floating voters — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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