1 News Colmar poll – February 2019

A similar result in this 1 news/Colmar Brunton poll to the recent Newshub/Reid Research poll, which suggests a shift in support to Labour and away from National. It isn’t major yet, but it’s going to keep the leadership change talk.

  • Labour 45% (up from 43)
  • National 42% (down from 46)
  • Greens 6% (up from 5)
  • NZ First 3% (down from 4)
  • ACT 1% (no change)
  • Maori Party 1% (no change)
  • TOP 1%

Refuse to answer 6% (up from 3) undecided 10%. Fieldwork conducted 9-13 February.

Greens are sort of safe so with Labour look good for now.

NZ First is still struggling to survive.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 44% (up from 39)
  • Simon Bridges 6% (down from 7)
  • Judith Collins 6% (no change)
  • Winston Peters 3%  (down from 4)

No a significant move for Bridges, but not a good place to be.

Leave a comment

31 Comments

  1. High Flying Duck

     /  18th February 2019

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  18th February 2019

      Hehir would say that….a long time nats sleeper since he worked for their research unit. Always runs Nationals talking points.
      See no word about the one person who the public likes less than any other labour opposition leader

      Reply
  2. lurcher1948

     /  18th February 2019

    SO do i call him Mr 5% or Mr 6% Simon Bridges….first world problems

    Reply
  3. Lurcher1948

     /  18th February 2019

    So how will kiwiblogs David Farrar spin something good out of this,i think Mr 5% is on 6% could be classed as a win

    Reply
  4. Griff.

     /  18th February 2019

    Fake poll.
    National supporters tell me Simon is winning and Jacinda is going fail all the time so it must be….EH.

    Reply
  5. The poll only adds to 99%.. perhaps ALCP are the other 1% ?
    They had reportedly, previous passed ACT & U/F, but are usually just included as ‘other’

    Reply
    • BUT with the ‘Reeferendum’ announced, they seem to have been further sidelined on the issue 😦

      still going after 21 years.. 100% for their ongoing efforts 🙂

      Reply
  6. Duker

     /  18th February 2019

    It’s the major donors that decide Bridges fate.. time to drum up some more $100k donations toute suit. …or what ever the term is in mandarin..mashang?

    Reply
  7. Corky

     /  18th February 2019

    Undecided 10%. 🙄

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  18th February 2019

      Undecideds don’t vote…think about it.
      I think they got too restless and dumped English too soon….only job he’s got has been Bunnings…the original plan was to go 18 months before a leader change ..I guess Bridges or Joyce couldn’t wait.
      Maybe Paula could be the consensus choice to do nothing… She’s pushing herself in the media……you go girl

      Reply
  8. Kimbo

     /  18th February 2019

    Not sure I’d be too worried if I were National, or even Bridges. Or at least there are solid reasons not to be alarmed, and to keep calm and carry on at this stage.

    Thankfully NZ is not a highly-politicised country- if it were people would be shot in the street on a regular basis, and torture and terror would common. Instead, the last two polls reflect the fact that over the summer break with over a year and a half to go until the next scheduled election campaign, average Kiwis (i.e., not tragics who hang out on blogs weighing and sifting every political machination and possibility! 😀) haven’t invested much time or thought in the subject. Hence the status quo gets a tick, and stuff like Kiwibuild gets ignored…for the moment. Unless someone can point to substantive reasons why Labour has risen and National fallen about 4% each in the last two months, which coincided with the silly season?

    Plus, outside of election campaigns leaders of the Opposition struggle for oxygen, and approval ratings are well less than the current PM – who should always be well ahead courtesy of incumbency, profile, and being the one MP that even the most politically ignorant can name 😀.

    When they were both junior MPs Bridges used to do pretty well against Ardern in the breakfast tv environment. So like Helen Clark who had to hang on for three grim years until she had the chance to shine in the 1996 campaign and cement her place (remember Cullen and Annette King suggested she step down), Bridges has to weather the storm.

    The key issue is whether the National MPs are stupid enough to blink, and go on the counter-productive leader merry-go-round that Labour indulged in from 2008 until they threw the Hail Mary pass to Ardern two months before the 2017 election. That’s what I’d be advising Bridges and National, anyway. Because this is the challenge of being in Opposition, and it only gets worse if you lose your bottle. And I think National MPs are smarter than that. Some of the party members, especially the tragics who hang out on blogs…less so. 😀

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  18th February 2019

      Do you include Mark Mitchell in the “National MPs are smarter than that” group? 🙃

      Reply
      • Kimbo

         /  18th February 2019

        He he. Not in the first instance, no. Like Judith Collins he has the “lean and hungry look”, but they have to hide it as best they can until a better opportunity arises, if it ever does. In NZ politics you can’t be seen to be unloyal to Caesar, instead you sing his/her praises…at the funeral when you reluctantly assume the office. It is how these things are done, and the ability to pull it off is a good test of political acumen.

        Compare how John Key and David Cunliffe ascended to leadership of their respective parties. Both were equallly ambitious, but one was much better at hiding the ambition so it was not naked, and leaving no fingerprints. We never did find out who hacked Don Brash’s parliamentary email, did we? And the National Party under Key sure “moved on”pretty fast. 😀

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  19th February 2019

          Key was handpicked and groomed by the real power behind the Nats.

          Brash had one bite.

          Reply
          • Kimbo

             /  19th February 2019

            He he he. I’d suggest both of those statements are more true of Labour under the leadership of Cunliffe. 😀

            Reply
    • David Waller

       /  19th February 2019

      Looking at the poll results National’s main problem remains the same, no friends. Who will partner them for the 50% dance? Ardern is busy dancing with Shaw and Davidson while due to advancing years Peters is conserving his energy for the last dance, a waltz no double.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  19th February 2019

        well we’ve seen the Last Tango in Epsom.

        Peters still has a pretty mean Quickstep for an old exponent.

        We’ve seen Collins try to ‘boogie’ ,but Nat leader Bridges has two right feet.No rhythm ,no soul ,no hope.

        Reply
        • Kimbo

           /  19th February 2019

          He he he. I’d suggest both of those statements are much more true of Labour under the leadership of Cunliffe.

          Reply
        • Kimbo

           /  19th February 2019

          Ignore immediately above – posted in the wrong place.

          Reply
  9. Patzcuaro

     /  19th February 2019

    Ominous for Bridges, he looks to be halfway out the door as he is not fully in the picture whereas Collins is all in the picture. Freudian slip?

    Reply
  10. Statistically neither the Labour or National movements are statistically significant.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  19th February 2019

      It migh not be statistically significant, but with tv3 (& to a lesser extent, sometimes, tv1) & several journos in the online print media continually gunning for Bridges AND talking up Collins, it’s politically significant.

      Simon is starting from so far behind now in the personal PM popularity stakes it could be impossible for him to catch up to Jacinda. 1ewes at 6 showed a collection of video clips of him saying “polls bounce around”, with a pretend-nonchalance that doesn’t really come over as genuinely uncincerned when, for him, they don’t bound around so much as slide down.

      It’s become a reaction to his public personality imo. There’s something about the guy people just don’t like.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  19th February 2019

        Bridges is as fake as a 3 dollar bill and it shows….drinking beer,changing his position on so many things,….trying to be a mini me Key but doesn’t have the polish of the old master,the ‘smiling assassin.’

        Reply
  11. Reply
    • Thomas is correct in my experience. Governments poll well in January because nobody is thinking about politics. That said, it’s still a dreadful poll for National. Your leader should not be level-pegging with his colleague in any poll, ever. And while it could be argued the JLR saga hurt National, it wouldn’t have hurt as much if Bridges was making genuine headway. This fustercluck of a government should not be leading any poll.

      Bridges needs to go, but he won’t. For one thing, Ross’s misguided acts helped cement him in place with his colleagues, ironically. But for another, Bridges is a genuine representation of the current National caucus. They are softer and wetter than Prince’s first single, and Bridges is their ideal leader. Collins would require them to move to the right a bit, and there is no appetite for that. And so, given a choice between real Labour and fake Labour, the public will pick the real one every time.

      Reply
  1. 1 News Colmar poll – February 2019 — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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