UMR and other polls – Labour and National even

Note – at best polls are just an approximate indicator of a snapshot of political support, especially individual polls.

Here is some anecdotal and it appears actual poll information.

Matthew Hooton in Capital Gains Tax debate shows Jacinda Ardern’s weakness

National insiders say their polling has NZ First consistently below the 5 per cent threshold, the Greens dicing with death by bouncing around it, and Labour and National locked in a tight battle, both above 40 per cent and within the margin of error of each other.

Care has to be taken with ‘insiders say’ anecdotes, but this is much the same as the last two published polls:

  • Reid Research 24 January-2 February: Labour 47.5%, National 41.6%, Greens 5.1%, NZ First 2.9%
  • Colmar Brunton 9-13 February: Labour 45%, National 42%, Greens 6%, NZ First 3%

The Reid Research poll was very early in the year, before politics cranked up, so favouring Labour is not surprising.

James Last yesterday on Twitter – The latest UMR poll for its corporate clients:

  • National up 5 to 45%
  • Labour down 1 to 44%
  • Greens down 2 to 5%
  • NZ First no change on 4%

While unpublished and verified this looks quite believable, with National back virtually level pegging with Labour.

National haven’t been particularly impressive but Labour have handled the Tax Working Group and CGT poorly so may have eased a bit because of that – but it could be too son to take much from it. If we get polls in the next month they may add too the picture, unless other major issues or events take over influence.

What this means is that hal way through the term (18 months before the next election) there is little in it between Labour and National. I think we can expect ebbs and flows in their support somewhere in the forties depending on timing of polls and margins of error.

Perhaps of more significance is NZ First remaining stuck under the threshold. When NZ First was last in government from 2005-2008 they polled mostly under the threshold and ended up getting 4.07 in the 2008 election, getting them dumped from Parliament.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2008_New_Zealand_general_election

Greens look a bit safer staying just above the threshold, but are still at risk. They will be keen to be seen to be achieving significant gains on climate, environmental and social issues. They have time for that, but need to start delivering.

 

 

19 Comments

  1. unitedtribes2

     /  March 9, 2019

    If a new green party can split the green vote, and NZF stay under 5% on election day, then were back to First Past the Post.

    • Effectively that’s a distinct possibility.

      It could also happen without much or no impact from the alternative greens.

      • Duker

         /  March 9, 2019

        No we will certainly not back to FPP, which gave an outsize majority to one party or the other based on small wins in marginal seats.
        You are confused over what happens in the voting papers, the party vote decides the numbers with a direct proportion of seats resulting and the electorate vote decides who is local MP
        . Thats NOT FPP.

        • PDB

           /  March 9, 2019

          unitedtribes2 obviously didn’t mean back to FPP literally – you need to lighten up a little.

    • Ray

       /  March 9, 2019

      It is worth remembering that the Greens mostly lose support, while NZFirst gain come election time.

      That’s normally, if Winston goes with just about any version of CGT his oldies are going to be massively unhappy, even more than now with his many “bottom lines” haven gone by the wayside.

      The Greens, who knows but other than dope, not many wins so far and they or rather those not enjoying the baubles prefer to be agin things rather than actually do anything.
      As an example climate change, it’s all about bans rather than getting organised to deal with the changes we will need to survive.

  2. David

     /  March 9, 2019

    Its odd that the Greens poll higher than NZFirst given the visibility and wins of one and the near total disappearance of the other. MMP is a funny beast and they will both be gone next election if history is any guide.
    National will go in with a polling advantage but Ardern will prevail on the campaign trail with the big Neve reveal and secure a 2nd term and have another sprog.

    • Blazer

       /  March 9, 2019

      will still be around if…’if history is any guide.’.

    • Gezza

       /  March 9, 2019

      I don’t see any sign of Neve being used for any effect beyond giving her a Maori middle name so far and while I see this continues to be a certainty with the less than observant I doubt very much that Ardern will use her child in this way.

      Jacinda only needs to sit down on the floor with any group of tiny tots to score points with mums because she’s a natural with them, from observation when I’ve seen her doing that.

      Possibly she’ll continue to wheel Neve in when overseas because it’s great for her overseas image, but I don’t see her doing it here where she is guarding her small child’s privacy.

      Jacinda will still score well here come election because the tv journalist sisterhood will ensure she does.

  3. Corky

     /  March 9, 2019

    Jacinda’s fortunes, given the polls at the moment, probably rest with her upcoming supposed ‘world first’ budget.

    • PDB

       /  March 9, 2019

      If I was her I wouldn’t be counting on that disaster-in-waiting. Something tells me its going to be all a huge joke & will further highlight their economic naivety.

      • Corky

         /  March 9, 2019

        Let’s hope so. I must admit I have trouble imagining what a world first budget would look like.

        Rest assured, being merry socialists, means we are going to be paying for deadbeats somewhere down the track.

  4. lurcher1948

     /  March 9, 2019

    LETS ALL SING(COME BACK SHONKY KEY) as Bill isnt up to the job WAIT WAIT… why did you run away and whose the mumbler running the ship of losers at the moment WAIT Bill ran away to…whose running the ship Mr 5%

  5. Finbaar Rustle

     /  March 9, 2019

    Any day with out the arrogant, smug entitled Nats in power is a great day.

  6. Duker

     /  March 9, 2019

    Why are we listening to Hootons views of whats happening in NZ – hes in London doing full time study for a quickie MA….as well hes a well known originator of fake news

  7. Duker

     /  March 9, 2019

    “The Reid Research poll was very early in the year, before politics cranked up,so favouring Labour is not surprising.”

    Thats a false claim , a professor of Statistics debunked that claim, which was widely reported, no need to repeat a fake claim that was used by nationals apologist/Ben Thomas to divert from Bridges/nationals poor showing
    https://www.statschat.org.nz/2019/02/19/summer-polling/

    • High Flying Duck

       /  March 10, 2019

      The claim I believe was that the *incumbent party* tended to get a boost from summer polls because there is a feel good factor at play.
      The stats, according to the twitter discussion I saw betweet Keith Ng and others on this showed this is correct – small but statistically meaningful correlation.

  8. PartisanZ

     /  March 10, 2019

    That’s a fabulous result for Labour among UMR’s “corporate clients” …

    • High Flying Duck

       /  March 10, 2019

      I assume that’s a deliberate misread there Parti? The poll was *for* corporate clients, not *of* them.

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