World view – Tuesday

Monday GMT


For posting on events, news, opinions and anything of interest from around the world.

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  1. The Huawei thing is getting very messy.

  2. Missy

     /  12th March 2019

    This morning Theresa May was supposed to travel to Strasbourg to meet with EU leaders in a last ditch effort for a compromise on the Withdrawal Agreement, however, she didn’t go and all reports indicated the EU had said that there would be no last minute compromise or deal, however, surprising everyone May has travelled to Strasbourg to meet with Juncker.

    It is unclear if Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, was aware she is meeting with Juncker, or if Merkel was aware, however, the Irish Government were taken unawares by it which may not go down well in Ireland. There is a general belief that the Irish Government believe they have a senior role in the Brexit negotiations and have been privy to all meetings etc.

    There are two groups of thoughts around why this meeting came up so suddenly, but in general it is believed that a phone call from Juncker at lunchtime is what prompted the trip.

    The first thought is that she has gone to ask Juncker for an extension to Article 50, this is risky if true as the UK Government has not agreed to ask for an extension and it could turn some fence sitters against asking for an extension. In saying that, it is unlikely this is the reason for her trip.

    The second is that it is believed Juncker has given some indication he could support a unilateral legal statement from the UK where they outline their understanding of the backstop – that it is temporary and not meant to be more than five years. If this is what they are discussing then how this is worded, and the level of legal protection will determine if it gets much support in the UK. Another risk with this – especially if Barnier, Donald Tusk, and other EU leaders were not aware of it – is that one of those aforementioned EU leaders tweeted something that undermines the agreement thereby turning the ERG against agreeing to it.

    The Conservative Eurosceptic Group, the ERG (European Research Group) reportedly have a number of lawyers on standby to scrutinise any agreement that May gets tonight, and they will decide late tomorrow how they will vote. There is some speculation that if the DUP vote with May on it then the ERG will as well.

    As it stands May is expected to lose the vote by up to 200, it isn’t expected to be the same margin as the first meaningful vote, but it is expected to be close to it.

    It has been reported that May is promising a lot of spending increases if Conservatives vote with her, this contrasts with her previous blackmail attempts by threatening that Brexit won’t happen unless they vote for her deal. Generally, most believe that as bad as Remaining will be, her deal is much worse.

    If her deal fails tomorrow night, as expected, then on Wednesday will be the vote on whether to leave with no deal or not.

    • Blazer

       /  12th March 2019

      ‘Theresa May was supposed to travel to Strasbourg’

      ‘she didn’t go’

      ‘ May has travelled to Strasbourg’

      First paragraph,talk about long winded.

      May has travelled to Strasbourg to meet with Juncker….all that was needed.🤦‍♂️

      • Gezza

         /  12th March 2019

        What’s significant is that she was supposed to meet with the EU leaders, and she didn’t.
        All of a sudden she seems to have decided to see on Juncker, her nemesis – possibly without theirs or anyone else’s knowledge. That is interesting to hear.

    • Missy

       /  12th March 2019

      A little clarity. The unilateral statement is not a legal statement, but a statement that May will make tonight after the joint statement with Juncker. This is expected around 10pm UK time (11am NZ time).

  3. Missy

     /  12th March 2019

  4. Gezza

     /  12th March 2019

    Love that headline: “Taoiseach delay’s Patrick’s travel plans…”

    He’s already bloody departed. Centuries ago.

  5. Missy

     /  12th March 2019

  6. Blazer

     /  12th March 2019

  7. Blazer

     /  12th March 2019


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