1 News Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton political poll:

  • Labour 48% (up from 45)
  • National 40% (down from 42)
  • Greens 6% (no change)
  • NZ First 4% (up from 3)
  • ACT 1% (no change)

This is quite similar  to the recent Reid Research poll for both Labour and National- see Reid Research party support poll – but is better news for Greens and slightly better for NZ First.

Refused to answer 4%, undecided 11%. Fieldwork conducted 6-10 April.

The last poll was conducted 9-13 February.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 51% (up from 44)
  • Simon Bridges 5% (down from 6)
  • Judith Collins 5% (down from 6)
  • Winston Peters 3%  (no change)

That’s the highest Ardern has been but it’s still well short of John Key’s highs – he was often over 50% and went as high as 70%..

Barely a change for Bridges but not good for him. There is increasing talk of a challenge to his leaardership.

33 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  15th April 2019

    PG you must have Key’s high wrong?

    • duperez

       /  15th April 2019

      Shy by about 9%, but then again almost got Simon Bridges’ right with getting close to ‘lardship.’

    • I took 1 News’ word for it but mistyped 50% – and they were probably only referring to their Colmar polls.

      Preferred PM for John Key:

      1 News Colmar Brunton:
      25–29 Jul 2009 – 54%
      21–25 Nov 2009 – 54%
      10 Apr 2011 – 55%
      3 Nov 2011 – 56%

      Herald Digipoll
      29 Jan – 10 Feb 2010 – 58%
      27 May 2011 – 67.7%
      30 Jul 2011 – 70.3%
      29 Oct 2011 – 70.6%

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_New_Zealand_general_election

      • Gezza

         /  15th April 2019

        Maybe Jess Mutch McKay got it wrong on 1news at 6, but she definitely said John Key’s Preferred PM highest was 59%, I think shortly after the Christchurch earthquake.

        • Duker

           /  15th April 2019

          You think…..where’s the proof?
          Check the clip online

        • Gezza

           /  15th April 2019

          but they were probably only referring to their Colmar polls

          Sorry. Missed that comment. That was my assumption. There seems to be a policy at tv1 & tv 2 of not even acknowledging the existence of another tv news channel.

          • Gezza

             /  15th April 2019

            @ Duker

            Righto. Can you post the link? Might speed things up.

          • Ignoring other polls is one of the serious deficiencies in poll reporting.

            • Duker

               /  15th April 2019

              It’s called plagiarism. RNZ gets around it by using it’s ‘poll of polls’ which averages other propriatry polls.
              As it says on CB website
              ‘Our polls are conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction of the results must be acknowledged as the ‘1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll’.
              No way one channel say they get their news from watching another channel.

        • duperez

           /  15th April 2019

          Your taringa definitely work the same as mine – at least when things like ‘59%’ get mentioned.. 👂

          • Gezza

             /  15th April 2019

            Admittedly it helped the brain retain it having the tv screen fill with nothing else except a massive red circle with 59% in the middle of it, when Jess said it…

  2. Kitty Catkin

     /  15th April 2019

    3 news was mainly taken up (it seemed) with a nurse kidnapped in (Syria ?) I missed the beginning so couldn’t work out whether she was still alive.

    I wonder if the preferred PM will change now that she is waffling on again about KiwiBuild, CGT and so on, not seeming to know what she’s doing.

    • With Bridges continuing to make her look great in comparison I think we can expect her to keep rating quite high for a while yet, unless something turns to custard for her.

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  15th April 2019

        The KiwiBuild fiasco may not do Labour any favours with taxpayers.

        • Duker

           /  15th April 2019

          What is the fiasco of which you speak…the idea is to sell at no cost to taxpayers. If a builder used a real estate agent that would be $30k commission per house. Saving money for low end cost houses by getting rid of middleman

          • Kitty Catkin

             /  16th April 2019

            I was under the impression that the government had had to buy many of them and that they are virtually unsaleable because of their location.

            A house that costs what these ones do may be low end cost to you; it isn’t to most of us.

            • Duker

               /  16th April 2019

              NO . Sale problems were for some projects where they were ‘selling off the plan’- they have found owners want to be able to walk through completed homes. Wanaka was one where there wasnt much demand, but Im sure they will sell one way or another maybe not to ‘eligible buyers’

              ‘KiwiBuild homes are not subsidised. They are sold at market prices.

              In Auckland and Queenstown-Lakes, a KiwiBuild home cannot exceed $650,000.
              In all other regions, the maximum price for a KiwiBuild home is $500,000.
              It is important to note that these are price caps. In many cases, homes sold for under the price cap.
              https://www.hud.govt.nz/residential-housing/kiwibuild/how-kiwibuild-works/

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  16th April 2019

              Does that mean that these houses are subsidised ?

              There are many houses in Auckland that are under that price anyway. If people want to live there, let them buy the cheaper houses in cheaper areas or buy apartments. It’s their problem if they can’t live in the posher suburbs.

    • Gezza

       /  15th April 2019

      Same on tv1 Kitty. A long main news item. They don’t know if she’s still alive. I hope she is but am not at all optimistic from the information given, that she was ill & that she was last seen around the time Foley & some other American female she was said to be with were executed after ransoms were refused.

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  15th April 2019

        The story was very rambling and not well put together, I thought; it seemed to go over the same ground and wasn’t very informative.

  3. Gezza

     /  15th April 2019

    I can’t see Simon Bridges coming back from this – or at least not back to anything near even double digits, even if he has a run of good fortune & the current halo slips & beatific glow fades from Jacinda Ardern.

    Too many New Zealanders don’t like, don’t rate and/or don’t trust him. He’s got no show at all. He knows it & so do National.

    • duperez

       /  15th April 2019

      They don’t have to trust him to the level of 50%. They only have to trust his party a little bit more, the other side a little bit less and him a little bit more.
      Is the public that fickle or transient they’d change their minds by that amount? Yes.

      • Gezza

         /  15th April 2019

        I think it will depend on the swing voters though & my own gut feeling is that they won’t flock to National with Bridges in charge. I often ask people who say they usually vote National if they can see Bridges as PM. They all do this 😬 or 🙄 and say “not really”, or sometimes just emphatically “No!”

        Such folk might still poll vote for National in opinion polls, but balk if he’s the next prospect for PM. I wonder the extent to which that hige discrepancy in party support & PM preference is frantic signalling by National voters to give poor Simon the elbow, please!

  4. Corky

     /  15th April 2019

    That’s a good poll for National, considering. Not that it worries me that much anymore.

    Lm

    • Patzcuaro

       /  16th April 2019

      If it is a good poll for National, it is a great poll for Labour. Bridges is dog Tucker just a matter of when the current supply runs out, then the ax will swing.
      I’ve never been a fan of Collins but from National’s view point I think she is worth a go, if she doesn’t work they just have to get the ax out again.

  5. Blazer

     /  16th April 2019

    wonder who the Nat ‘talent scouts’ are approaching…..Richie,O’Sullivan,Hosking,Chris Lidell…

  6. Patzcuaro

     /  16th April 2019

  7. Zedd

     /  16th April 2019

    Greens & NZF will be perhaps, happier at this one ?

    btw: the Pref. PM numbers only add to 64% ?
    Who are the other 36% ?? :/ :/